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IndianHotelsCompany
Recommendation:STRONGBUY
CurrentPrice:
59.65
Targetprice: 81
Analyst:NehaMajithia
+03330512176
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InvestmentRationale
Valuation
IndianHotelsCompanyLimited
STRONGBUY SectorHotels
Highcapacityofexpansion inhotel andRooms:IHCLcameupwithtotal27hotelsand3042roomsinla
years,bothinitsdomesticandinternationalportfolio.Itcameupwith7hotelsand971roomsinFY12.Therea
hotelsand2040roomsinpipelineinFY13and20hotelsand2573roomsinFY14.Thecompanyisplanningtod
itshotelsunderitsbrandnamedVivantabyTajto50fromthecurrent23hotelsinthenext4years.Itisalso
toadd
another
22
hotels
under
the
brand
named
Gateway
and
new
55
hotels
under
Ginger
in
next
four
years
Companysfocus on Cash Flows: The company is on verge of improving its Cash flows by focusing on in
expenses,employeecosts,totaldebtandcashbalances.IthasstrongaveragecashearningspershareofINR3.4
share for last fiveyearsand ispoisedtoachievethehistorical levelbygivinganext5yearaverageof~INR5.4
share.
Riseinoccupancyrates,roomtariffsandARRstodrivetoplinegrowth:Thegradualriseinoccupancy
hotel tariffs and average room rates (ARRs) is likely to drive the topline growth and also increase the margin
companyexpectstheoccupancyratestoreach~78%withimproveddomestictourismandweakrupee.Thema
hikesin
hotel
tariff
would
benefit
the
ARRs
and
turnover
of
IHCL
in
coming
years.
There
was
amarginal
rise
in
tariffsof2%inFY12inIndiaand4%globally.
StrongentrybarrierinLuxurysegment:ThecompanyisexpectedtooutperformintheLuxurysegmentspa
accountofstrongentrybarrierinitsLuxurysegment.Thereasonisescalatinglandprices,highestablishingcosts
currentscenario asacorefactorfortheupcominghotels.
We rate Indian Hotels Company Ltd a STRONG BUY. Indian HotelsCompany Limited (IHCL)and its subsi
collectively known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces is one of Asia's largest and finest hotel company, w
inventory of 13629 rooms and 115 hotels across India and internationally. It has presence across different
segments
like
Luxury,
Upper
Upscale,
upper
scale
and
Budget
segment
with
various
brands
named
Taj,
V
Gateway and Ginger Hotels. With its active capacity addition in rooms and hotels, solid entry barriers in
segment, improvedoccupancyrates,amplifyinghoteltariffsandfocusonboostingupthecash flows,wesee
HotelsCompanytogrowataCAGRof10.28%intermsofrevenueandmarginsimprovingsubstantiallyby~160b
thenextfiveyears.
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Companyprofile
Indianhotels
company
(IHCL)
jointly
with
its
subsidiaries
is
known
as
Taj
Hotels
Resorts
and
Palaces,
which
is
one
of
Asias
largest
and
finest
hotel
company. Itgot incorporated in1902,bythefounderoftheTatagroup,Mr. JamshedjiNTata,and itopened itsfirsthotelTheTajMahalPalace&
TowerinMumbai.
Taj Hotels Resortsand Palacescomprises93hotels in 55 locations across India with anadditional 16 international hotels intheMaldives,Malaysia,
Australia,UK,USA,Bhutan,SriLanka,AfricaandtheMiddleEast.
IHCLoperates itsportfolioofhotelsunder4 clearandwelldefinedbrands,namelyTajLuxuryHotels,VivantabyTaj,theGatewayhoteland Ginger
hotels,eachaddressingopportunitiesatvaryingpricepointsandprovidingtoguestswelldefinedandconsistentproducts,servicesandexperiences.
CompanyStructure
IndianHotelsCompanyLtd
Subsidiaries Associates JointVentures
Domestic:
TIFCOHoldingsLimited
KTCHotelsLimited
UnitedHotelsLimited
TajSATS
Air
Catering
Limited
RootsCorporationLimited
ResidencyFoodsandBeveragesLimited
International:
InternationalHotelManagementServices
Inc.
TajInternationalHotels(HK)Limited
St.JamesCourtHotelLimited
ChieftainCorporationNV
IHOCOBV
TajInternationalHotelsLimited
SamsaraPropertiesLimited
IHMS(Australia)
Pty
Limited
ApexHotelManagementServicesPte
Limited
Domestic:
TajMadrasFlightKitchenPvt.Ltd.
TajKarnatakaHotels&ResortsLtd.
TajKeralaHotels&ResortsLtd.
Taj
GVK
Hotels
&
Resorts
Limited
TajSafarisLtd.
KaveriRetreats&ResortsLimited
International:
TALHotelsandResortsLimited
IHMSHotels(SA)(Proprietary)Limited
Domestic:
TaidaTradingandIndustriesLimited
OrientalHotelsLimited
TajMaduraiLimited
Taj
Air
Limited
LandsEndPropertiesPrivateLimited
Luthria&LalchandaniHotel&PropertiesPvt.Ltd.
SkydeckPropertiesandDevelopersPrivate
Limited
SheenaInvestmentsPrivateLimited
ELELHotels&InvestmentsLimited
BusinessJets(India)Pvt.Ltd.
PrestigeGardenResortsPrivateLimited
International:
TALLankaHotelsPLC
LankaIslandResortsLimited
BjetsPte
Limited
BAHC1PteLimited
BAHC2PteLimited
CullenOakesCorp
BusinessJetsPteLimited
BjetsAssetHoldingsPteLimited
PlatinumLeasingLimited
OHLInternational(HK)Limited
TALMaldivesResortsPvtLimited
GoodhopePalaceHotelsPvt.Ltd.
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CompanyBrands
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IndianHotelsCompanyLtd
TAJLuxuryHotels VivantabyTAJ GatewayHotels GingerHotels
India
TheTajMahalPalace,Mumbai VivantabyTaj Connemara,Chennai TGH ResidencyRoad,Bangalore Bangalore
TajLandsEnd,Mumbai TajExotica,Goa TGH BeachRoad,Calicut Haridwar
TheTajMahalHotel,NewDelhi VivantabyTaj FortAguada,Goa HotelChandela,Khajuraho Bhubaneswar
TajPalaceHotel,NewDelhi VivantabyTaj HolidayVillage,Goa HotelSavoy,Ooty Mysore
TajBengal,Kolkata UshaKiranPalace,Gwalior TGH Rawalkot,Jaisalmer Trivandrum
TheTajWestEnd,Bangalore VivantabyTaj HariMahal,Jodhpur Kuteeram,Bangalore Pune Pimpri
TajLakePalaceHotel,Udaipur JaiMahalPalace,Jaipur TGH GirForest,SasanGir Nashik
TajWellingtonMews,Mumbai VivantabyTaj WhitefieldITPL,Bangalore TGH BeachRoad,Vishakapatnam Agartala
TajFalaknumaPalace,Hyderabad TajResidency,Aurangabad TGH PasumalaiHills,Madurai Puducherry
TajCoromandel,Chennai VivantabyTaj President,Mumbai TGH ChurchRoad,Coonoor Vadodara
TajKrishna,Hyderabad VivantabyTaj MGRoad,Bangalore TGH PortRoad,Mangalore PantNagar
RambaghPalace,Jaipur VivantabyTaj Ambassador,NewDelhi TGH FatehabadRoad,Agra RailYatriNiwas,Delhi
UmaidBhawanPalace,Jodhpur TajBanjara,Hyderabad TGH Ambad,Nasik Goa
MahuaKothi,Bandhavgarh TajDeccan,Hyderabad TGH GangesVaranasi Ludhiana
Baghvan,Pench TajChandigarh,Chandigarh TGH Ernakulam Ahmedabad
Pasangarh,Panna VivantabyTaj GomtiNagar,Lucknow TGH Varkala,Janaradhanapuram Mangalore
BanjarTola,Kanha VivantabyTaj BlueDiamond,Pune TGH KMRoad,Chikmagalur Guwahati
VivantabyTaj FishermansCove,Chennai TGH AthwaLines,Surat Jamshedpur
VivantabyTaj Malabar,Cochin TGH M.G.Road,Vijaywada PuneWakad
VivantabyTaj Kumarakom,Kerala TGH UmmedAhmedabad Surat
VivantabyTaj Kovalam,Kerala TGH AkotaGardens,Vadodara Manesar
VivantabyTaj SawaiMadhopur,Ranthambore SMS,Jaipur ChennaiIIT
RamgarhLodge,Jaipur TGHJodhpur DelhiVivekVihar
VivantabyTaj Trivandrum,Kerala NadesarPalace Indore
TajClubHouse,Chennai
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HotelIndustryOverview
VivantabyTaj Panaji,Goa
Overseas AirCatering
ThePierre,NewYork TajSamudra,Colombo AirportGardenHotel,Colombo Mumbai
TajBoston,Boston VivantabyTaj Exotica,Bentota NewDelhi
CamptonPlace,SanFrancisco VivantabyTaj CoralReef,Maldives Kolkata
TajExoticaResort&Spa,Maldives RebakIslandResort,Langkawi,Malaysia Chennai
TajPalaceHotelDubai TajTashi,Thimphu,Bhutan Goa
CrownPlaza/St.JamesCourt,London TajPamodzi,Lusaka Amritsar
51BuckinghamGate,London Bangalore
TajCapeTown,SouthAfrica Cochin
Blue,Sydney,Australia
54%
65%
70%
62%
63%
60%
68%
45%
44%
65%
53%
64%
68%
64%
63%
57%
71%
49%
45%
62%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
SouthMumbai
NorthMumbai
Delhi
Bangalore
chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Pune
Jaipur
Goa
Occupancy(%)ofHotelsinIndia
FY20111 2 F Y2 01 011
10085
8728
10638
8189
6536
6097
7349
5919
8154
6496
9407
9025
10442
8327
6521
6143
7108
5470
8407
7007
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
SouthMumbai
NorthMumbai
Delhi
Bangalore
chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Pune
Jaipur
Goa
`/perroom
ARR(%)ofHotelsinIndia
FY201112 F Y201011
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,STRGlobalSource:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,STRGlobal
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InternationalTouristArrivals(ITAs)
International Tourists arrivals grew by over 4% in 2011 to INR980
million, attributed by slow global economic recovery, major political
changes in the Middle East and North Africa and natural disasters in
Japan.
The growth of International Tourist arrivals is expected to continue in
2012,butataslowerpaceof34%. ITAsgrewby5.7% inthe firsttwo
monthsof2012.
It is anticipated to hit almost one billion by the end of 2012, with
emerging economies regaining the lead with stronger growth in Asia
and the Pacific and Africa (4% to 6%), followed by the Americas and
Europe(2%
to
4%).
The
Middle
East
(0%
to
+5%)
is
forecasted
to
recover
partofitslossesfrom2011.
ForeignTouristsarrivals(FTAs)inIndia
The Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) continued to grow at an inactive
count,withagrowthofjust9.4%intheperiod,JanuaryAprilof2012,as
against12.10%overcorrespondingperiodof2011.
FTAsinIndiagrewbycloseto9%to6.98millionin2011ascomparedto
5.78millionin2010.Ithasexhibitedagrowthof~90%overlast6years
fromapproximately
392
million
travelers
in
2005.
The conventional source markets of US, UK and Western Europe
continued to be the major contributors to arrivals in India. Growth in
arrivalstoAfricaandtheMiddleEastwasweakwhilearrivalstoEurope,
Asia, the Pacific and Americas led the international traveler growth
duringCY2011.
ForeignexchangeEarnings(FEE)inIndia
TheForeignExchangeEarnings(FEE)fromtourismduringtheperiodof
JanuaryApril
of
2012,
addressed
a
handsome
growth
of
28.5%,
as
comparedtothecorrespondingperiodofpreviousyear.
Still, India is lacking behind and losing in foreign exchange because of
huge mismatch between footfalls and growth rates in inbound and
outbound tourism. For example, Issues like multiple taxes and
entertainmentlicensesareslowinggrowthininboundtourism.
Source:UNWTO,MicrosecResearch
7.9
0.13
1.6
10.3
5.9
5.6
6.6
2.1
3.8
6.64.4
3.5
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012
%
InMillions
InternationalTouristArrivals %Change
Source:MinistryofTourism,GovernmentofIndia,MicrosecResearch
20.6
3.5
0.1
37.6
34.8
18.5
17.813.7
15.6
7.1
18.1
19.6
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
2530
35
40
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 JanApril
of
CY2012
%INR(Cr)
ForeignExchangeEarnings(FEE) %Change
Source:Ministry
of
Tourism,
Government
of
India,
Microsec
6.7
4.26
14.3
26.813.3 13.5
14.3
4
2.2
11.8
8.8 9.40%
10
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 JanApril
ofCY2012
%
inMillions
ForeigntouristArrivals (FTA) %Change
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Indiasroomsupplypipelinecontinuestobestrong
Indiasroom
supply
pipeline
represents
17%
of
the
Asia
Pacific
pipeline.
ItwasmovingataCAGRof10.81%forlast10yearsandisnowpoisedto
growataCAGRof6%innext5years.
The intense supply pipeline would be backed by addition of room
capacitybyallthehotelsbothinIndiaandInternationally.
Thesupplypipelinewouldbeefupalsoonaccountofimprovedforeign
touristarrivals,corporatetravels,etc.
International hotels like Carlson, Strawood, Marriot, etc are the ones
which have chalked out plans to acquire the sufficient market share,
thus,
giving
a
thrust
to
the
Indian
supply
pipeline.
IndiasHotelPerformanceinKeyCitiesinFY12
Indianhotelsperformanceshowedanoverall6%increaseonthesupply
front. New supply was witnessed mainly in new and emerging CBDs
acrossmetros.Though,demandgrewatamoderatepace.
Due to the low economic sentiment, especially in the last quarter of
FY12,thereisanadditionalpressureonrates.
CitieslikeHyderabad,Chennai,Delhisawmajorpositivechangesonthe
supplyperformance
side
and
others
like
Mumbai,
Goa
saw
asurge
on
thedemandside.
GlobalScenario
6.00%
2.90%
2.40%
13.40%
8.70%
7.40%
6.60%
7.40%
3.90%
5.50%
7.00%
4.20%
1.10%
0.80%
1.80%
2.40%
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
India
Goa
Mumbai
Delhi
Jaipur
Bangalore
Chennai
Hyderabad
%ChangeinIndianHotels Performance inKeyCities
Demand%Ch an ge S up pl y%Change
62000
173000
233850
60850
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2003 2012 Next5Years
Existing Pipeline
CAGRof9%
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData, Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
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DevelopmentsinFY201112
UpcomingDevelopments
HotelsinPipeline2012/13
Hotels Company Rooms
Taj
TajPalaceMarrakech,Morocco ManagementContract 161
ImperialClubbyTaj,Tardeo,Mumbai ManagementContract 9
VivantabyTaj
VivantabyTaj,Dwarka IHCL 250
VivantabyTaj,Coorg KaveriResorts 62
VivantabyTaj,Gurgaon ManagementContract 200
Gateway
Gateway,Kolkata
Management
Contract
200
Gateway,Raipur ManagementContract 119
Gateway,Gondia BHL 34
Gateway,Hubli ManagementContract 92
GatewayOMR,Chennai ManagementContract 193
GingerHotels(EightinNumber) RootsCorporationLtd 720
NewDevelopmentsinPipeline2012/13include18Hotelsand2040rooms
NewHotelsinFY2011/12
Hotels Indicativetimeline Company Rooms
IHCLDirect/ManagementContract
VivantabyTaj,Yeshwantpur Launched IHCL 327
VivantabyTaj,Srinagar Launched ManagementContract 88
VivantabyTaj,Bekal,Kerala SoftOpening ManagementContract 72
TheGatewayHotel,SasanGir Launched ManagementContract 28
SubTotal 515
Subsidiaries/JVs/Associates
VivantabyTaj,Begumpet,Hyderabad Launched TajGVK 181
VivantabyTaj,Coimbatore Launched OHL 180
GingerHotelsTirupur 2011/12 RootsCorporation 95
SubTotal 456
NewDevelopmentsin2011/12include7hotelsand971rooms.
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HotelsinPipeline 2013/14
Hotel Company Rooms
Taj
TajAirportHotel,CSIA,T1C,Mumbai TajGVKLtd 275
TajPalace,TempleofHeaven ManagementContract 105
VivantabyTaj
VivantabyTaj,Nagpur ManagementContract 255
VivantabyTaj,LakeEnd,Udaipur PiemHotelsLtd 80
Gateway
Gateway,Faridabad ManagementContract 160
Gateway,Banerghatta OHL 209
Gateway,Chiplun ManagementContract 60
Gateway,Shirdi ManagementContract 119
Gateway,Hinjewadi ManagementContract 150
GatewayNashik(Expansion) PiemHotelsLtd 67
GingerHotels(TeninNumber) RootsCorporationLtd 1093
NewDevelopmentsinPipeline2013/14include20Hotelsand2573rooms
9931
10587
1175412243
12795
13629
15508
8288
99103
107
115
130
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
FY200607 FY200708 F Y200809 F Y200910 F Y201011 F Y201112 FY201213(E)
Rooms Hotel s
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
32%
25%
22%
21%
No.ofRooms(%)
IHCL(Standalone) Subsidiaries JointVentures Associates
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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SurplusInventory&supplementaryroomrateshurtsroomoccupancy
The slowdown in recovery of occupancy rates in last few years was
primarily due to oversupply of rooms particularly in Delhi, Chennai,
Hyderabad, Bangalore and Pune. Mumbai was the only metro, which
showedanimprovementinoccupancyevenwithflatroomrates.
TheAverageroomoccupancyrate for Indianhotels is~70%for last5
yearsandispresumedtoreach75%innext45years,withthesupport
oforderlysupplyofrooms, revamped foreigntouristarrivals in India,
expansionofdifferentchainsegmenthotelsinIndiaandabroad.
ThemajorreinforcementinitsbudgetspacesegmentalloverIndiaisa
bigpositiveintermsofoccupancy.Nevertheless,hikeinroomratesin
populardestinations
is
ajumbo
count
for
the
company.
AverageRoomRatestogaingroundonprolongedhoteltariffs
The average room rates (ARRs) remained steady for FY12, with a
growth of ~10%, owing to improved domestic tourism and corporate
travel.
ThegrowthinARR/OccupancywasrelativelymutedinFY12.TheARRs
marginalimprovementonthedomesticfrontwasduetomarginalrise
in hotel tariffs of 2%, which attracted both the domestic and
internationaltravelers.
Globally,
there
was
ajump
of
4%
in
the
hotel
tariffs,whichoflategaveaboosttotheARRs.
TheARRsare likelytoshapeup in futureonbackof increase inhotel
tariffs,riseindomesticandinternationaltourism.
Revenueperavailableroomtogetaboost
TheRevenueperavailableroom(RevPar)increasedsignificantlyinFY12
by10%,asaresultofsupplementaryroomratesduringtheyear.
It is expected to forge ahead on account of higher occupancies and
hoteltariffs.
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
73%
73%
68%
66%
70%
73%75%
78%
60%
64%
68%
72%
76%
80%
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
RoomOccupancy
9234
10674
10709
8975 9
873 1
0860
11566
12433
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
INR(Cr)
AverageRoomRate(ARR)
672
3
7842
7
084
6104 6
71
4 7386 7
977 8
615
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
INR
RevPAR
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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RoomIncomeelevatesonbackoftoweringincreaseinroomcapacity
The Room Income (~50% of the total revenue), has moved up
drasticallyinFY11,withajumpof19%overFY10,byvirtueofhigher
room rates and occupancies. Besides, the surge can also be
attributedtoreopeningofTAJMahalPalace,Mumbaiandlaunchof
TAJFalaknama,Hyderabad.
In FY12, the growth contracted to 6% over FY11. Despite the
slowdowninbusiness,theabovementionedrisewasonbackof8%
surmountinaveragedailyroomssoldincludingcapacityincrease.
RoomIncomeisanticipatedtoclimbup~18%byFY14,ongroundof
favorableAverageroomrates(ARRs)andincidentalroomcapacityin
different
chain
segments,
especially
in
Vivanta
by
TAJ
and
Ginger
hotels.
Heftyfood&beverageIncomeonbackofstablebanquetingincome
The Food and Beverage Income honored by 19% in FY11 as
compared to FY10, owningto sturdy growth of banqueting income
of22%.
TheFood&Beverage incomewasup inFY12againstFY11,butata
passiverateof11%,becauseofsuperiorgrowth inrestaurantsales
andbulky
banqueting
income.
The Food and beverage income is expected to improve in coming
yearswiththe launchof forthcominghotelsandrestaurantsacross
thecompanysportfolio.
Managementfeeyettoaugmentgrowth
The Management fee for FY12 was up by 6% owing to higher
turnoverofbothIHCLandNonIHCLHotels.
The other judgment for the higher management fee was the
profitabilityinNonIHCLhotels.
Though, inFY11,themanagementfeewashigherthanFY10figures
by 17%. The major income in terms of management fee would
straighten up more in near future, considering the turnover in the
hotelsunderthecompanysinternationalportfolio.
845.1
978.71
843.19
699.63 834.52
883.27
953.9
3 1049.32
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
INR(Cr)
RoomIncome
521.2 5
85.32
508.99
536.34 6
36.7 7
05.45
754.83
822.77
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
INR(Cr)
Food&BeverageIncome
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
74.2
58.62
66.46
59.97
106.12
112.17
118.90
128.41
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY2011
12A
FY2012
13E
FY2013
14E
INR(Cr)
ManagementFee
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MicrosecRese25th
June,2012
FinancialAnalysis(Consolidated)Radiantoutlookwithmountedmargins
Interms
of
revenue,
the
company
is
growing
at
aCAGR
of
just
5.36%forlast6years.Priortolastsixyears,thecompanygrewat
aCAGRof18.36%. The company witnessed a major slowdown in
FY09,FY10&FY11onthegroundsof1)slowdown inUSeconomy
which blemished the performance of the hotels internationally 2)
terrorist attack in TAJ Mahal Palacein FY10, which impacted
foreigntouristarrivals in India inreturnhammeringtheoccupancy
ratesandfinacialoperationsofthecompany.
IHCL posted Consolidated net sales of INR3432.71 crores in FY12,
registeringasurgeof19.92%againstFY11.Thiswasmainlybecause
of1)
room
revenue
growth
driven
by
8%
increase
in
average
daily
roomssoldincludingcapacityaddition2)higherfoodandbeverage
salesduetosurge inrestaurantsalesandbanquetingbusinessand
managementfee.
TheEBITDAforFY12arrivedat INR545.70crores,whichwasupby
13.31% against FY11. The 6% hike in management fee due to
toweringturnoverandprofitability inNon IHCLhotelscontributed
to these earnings. The EBITDA Margins for the year was 15.90%,
which was merely down by 93bps. We expect the margins to
improve, though not identical to its historic levels, but, at a swift
pace
because
of
enduring
growth
in
revenue,
other
operating
incomeanddecreaseinexpenditurewithrespecttototalincome.
TheexpenditurefortheFY12wasINR2887.01,whichwas84.10%of
total income. It increased by 76bps against FY11, because of 1)
increase in raw material cost in line with 11% hike in food and
beverages revenue and rising commodity input cost 2) annual
increments, launch of new hotels in Bangalore and Hyderabad 3)
riseinemployeecosts4)surmountvariablecostslinkedtobusiness
commensuratecostsofnewpropertiesandhigheradvertisingcosts
onaccountofongoingexpansionofVivantabyTAJ.
The company barged in with consolidated net profit of INR3.06 crores,after posting losses for last 2 consecutive years. The net profit showed a
growthof96.49%againstalossofINR87.26croresinFY11.ThePATmarginfortheyearwas0.09%whichwasupby314bps.
Weexpectthecompanyto grow at aCAGR of 10.28% in terms of revenuefor the next5years on backof1) matured growth rates inforeign
touristarrivals andcorporatetravelwhichwouldsubstanciallyimpacttheARRsandoccupancies,notjustacrossthecompanysportfolio,butalso
the hotels in itsJoint ventures, subsidiaries and associates 2) expansion of hotels in various hotel chain segments, like luxury, upper upscale,
upscaleandbudget segment,thus,cateringtotheneedsofallclassofpeople3)Weakrupeewhichwouldbringcoercionamongthecostconcious
indianstotravelwithinthecountryandresultinrisingroomratesnotonlyinpopulardestinations,but,alsointhemetrocities4)favourableARRs
34.64%33.72%
21.47%
16.21%
15.80%15.90%
15.96%
17.50%14.73%
12.16%
0.48%5.57%
4.07%0.09%
1.60%
3.26%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
FY2006
07A
FY2007
08A
FY2008
09A
FY2009
10A
FY2010
11A
FY20011
12A
FY200
12
13E
FY20
13
14E
INR
(Cr)
NetSales EBITDA PAT EBITDAMargin(%) PATMargin(%)
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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whichwouldboostthedemandoftheallgradesofpeople5)boostup inturnoverandprofitsmainlyfrombyPiem,TajSats,BenaresHotelsLtd
,etcinthedomesticportfolio6)turnovergrowth inRootsCorporationLimited7)growthinturnoverandprofitabilitybyStJames,TIHL,IHMS(A)
andTALHotels&ResortsLtdininternationalportfolio8)fullyretirementofdebtofSamsarapropertiesLtdtwhichwouldboostupprofitmargins,
thoughnot
signoficantly
9)
growth,
but
at
agradual
rate,
in
the
US
hotels.
Subsidiaries/Associates/JointVentures Onthetrailofconcreteturnover
The companys subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates jointly
contribute ~41% revenue to the standalone IHCL. We expect ~45%
growth in coming years on back of 1) growth in UK, US subsidiary in
international portfolio and also in domestic portfolio 2) substantial
contribution from the reopening of The Pierre after renovation 3)
expansioninGingerhotelsthroughitssubsidiaryTheRootsCorporation
Ltd 4) major geographical expansion both in India and abroad 5) large
scale expansion in its Upper Upscale segmentVivanta by Taj through
managementcontractsandsubsidiaries6) improvementinperformance
of hotels underjoint ventures and associates 7) better occupancy rates
andARRs.
1104997
1091 1073
15441621
1702.26
102210
261 254 132 81.05 51.07
9%
21%
24%
24%
9%
5%
3%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
300
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
FY200708A FY200809A FY200910A FY201011A FY201112A FY201213E FY201314E
INR
(Cr)
Revenue PAT PATMargin(%)
146
128
156
153
169 1
77.45
186.32
34
19
15
11
4 5.32
9.32
23%
15%10%
7%
2% 3%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
40
80
120
160
200
FY200708A F Y200809A FY200910A F Y201011A FY201112A FY201213E F Y201314E
INR(Cr)
Revenue PAT PATMargin(%)
62
2520
1520
1015
62
25
57
1620
25
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY200708A F Y200809A FY200910A F Y201011A FY201112A F Y201213E F Y201314E
INR(Cr)
Revenue PAT
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyDataSource:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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MicrosecRese25th
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DomesticandInternationalSubsidiaries
38
54
63
52
59
61
64
72
75
84 81
7874
78
80
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FY200910A FY201011A FY2001112A
Occupancy(%)
International
Hotels
of
Taj
ThePierre,NewYork
TajBoston
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
St.JamesCourt,
London
Blue,Sydney
632
620
598
256
260
273
250
259 2
96
209
171
190
188
252
252
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY200910A FY2010
11A F Y20011
12A
USD
ARR(%)
International
Hotels
of
Taj
ThePierre,NewYork
TajBoston
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
St.JamesCourt,London
Blue,Sydney
240
337
377
133 1
53 1
68
158
186
221
193
139
1491
68
197 2
0
2
100
200
300
400
FY200910A FY201011A FY2001112A
USD
RevPAR(%)International HotelsofTaj
ThePierre,NewYork
TajBoston
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
St.JamesCourt,London
Blue,Sydney
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyDataSource:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
351.2
3
417.3
9 450
197.6
3
195.7
210
38.9
8
49.8
3
53
19.6
4
20.6
3
35
0.1
2
0
11
40.9
2
40.8
9
57
1.2
8
1.5
5
5.8
0.1
9
0.0
4
2.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
FY200910A FY201011A FY2001112A
INR
(Cr)
TotalIncomeofMajorIndian subsidiaries
InternationalHotelManagementServices
Inc.
St. JamesCourtHotelsLtd
IHMS(Australia)PtyLtd
Taj International (H.K.) Ltd
SamsaraPropertiesLtd
Taj International HotelsLtd
ApexHotelManagementPTELtd
ChieftainCorporation NV
IHOCOBV
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
183
.79
168
.16
115
.69
11
.67
15
.65 2
7.2
3
4
.2
5
0.0
7
1.2
3
107
.39
86
.16
56
.25
0.0
1
0.1
7
0.9
3
0 0 0.0
1
0.1
7
0 0.0
6
0.0
3
0
.1
0.0
2
200
150
100
50
0
50
FY200910A FY201011A FY2001112A
INR
(Cr
)
International HotelManagement
ServicesInc.
St.JamesCourtHotelsLtd
IHMS
(Australia)
Pty
Ltd
TajInternational (H.K.)Ltd
SamsaraProperties Ltd
TajInternational HotelsLtd
ApexHotelManagementPTELtd
ChieftainCorporationNV
IHOCOBV
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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MicrosecRese25th
June,2012
Associates
NameofCompany CountryofOperation Holding
Domestic
IdealIce&ColdStorageCo.Ltd. India 34.
BenaresHotelsLtd. India 49.
PiemHotelsLtd. India 46.
TajTradeandTransportCo.Ltd. India 46.
TajEnterprisesLtd. India 44.
Taida
Trading
and
Industries
Ltd.
India
41.
InditravelPvt.Ltd. India 47.
OrientalHotelsLtd. India 33.
TajMaduraiLtd. India 26.
KaveriRetreats&ResortsLimited India 22.
International
LankaIslandResortsLtd. SriLanka 24.
TALLanka
Hotels
PLC
Sri
Lanka
24.
JointlyControlledEntities
NameofCompany CountryofOperation Holding(%)
Domestic
TajMadrasFlightKitchenPvt.Ltd. India 50.00%
TajKarnatakaHotels&ResortsLtd. India 38.81%
Taj
Kerala
Hotels
&
Resorts
Ltd.
India
28.30%
TajGVKHotels&ResortsLtd. India 25.52%
TajSafarisLtd India 22.98%
International
TALHotels&ResortsLtd. HongKong 27%
IHMSHotels(SA)(Proprietary)Ltd. SouthAfrica 50%
SubsidiaryCompanies
NameofCompany CountryofOperation Holding(%)
omestic
IFCOHoldingsLtd. India 100%
TCHotelsLtd. India 100%
nitedHotelsLtd. India 55%
ootsCorporationLtd. India 100%
ajSATSAirCateringLtd. India 51%
esidencyFoods&BeveragesLtd. India 98.68%
International
ajInternational
Hotels
(H.K.)
Ltd.
(TIHK)
Hong
Kong
100%
hieftainCorporationNV NetherlandsAntilles 100%
HOCOBV Netherlands 100%
t.JamesCourtHotelsLtd. UnitedKingdom 54.01%
ajInternationalHotelsLtd. UnitedKingdom 100%
nternationalHotelManagementServicesInc. USA 100%
amsaraPropertiesLtd. BritishVirginIslands 100%
HMS(Australia)PtyLtd. Australia 100%
pexHotelManagementServices(Pte)Ltd. Singapore 100%
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QuarterlyAnalysis:MarginsdiponbackofunexpectedsluggishnessinOccupanciesandARRs
Particulars(INR
in
Crores)
Q4FY12A
Q3FY12A
Q4FY11A
YoY
(%)
QoQ
(%)
FY12A
FY11A
YoY
Change
(%)
NetSales 560.15 521.48 530.87 5.52% 7.42% 3432.71 2862.47 19.92%
ShareofProfitsinAssociates 0 0 0 0 29.24
OtherOperatingIncome 0 0 0 0 0
TotalIncome 560.15 521.48 530.87 5.52% 7.42% 3432.71 2891.71 18.71%
TotalExpenditure 400.96 380.78 345.25 16.14% 5.30% 2887.01 2410.09 19.79%
as%ofsales 71.58% 73.02% 65.03% 84.10% 84.20%
EBITDA 159.19 140.70 185.62 14.24% 13.14% 545.7 481.62 13.31%
EBITDAMargin(%) 28.42% 26.98% 34.97% (655)bps 144bps 15.90% 16.83% (93)bps
Depreciation 31.89 26.51 27.98 13.97% 20.29% 255.07 227.89 11.93%
EBIT 127.30 114.19 157.64 19.25% 11.48% 290.63 253.73 14.54%
EBITMargin(%) 22.73% 21.90% 29.69% (396)bps 83bps 8.47% 8.86% (39)bps
Interest 29.53 30.35 26.53 11.31% 2.70% 193.38 251.17 23.01%
OtherIncome 9.9 8.59 15.43 35.84% 15.25% 50.78 35.73 42.12%
PBTbeforeexceptionalitems 107.67 92.43 146.54 26.53% 16.49% 148.03 38.29 286.60%
exceptionalitems 1.11 14.81 1.94 42.78% 92.51% 0.46 15.74 102.92%
PBTafterexceptionalitems 106.56 77.62 144.60 26.31% 37.28% 147.57 54.03 173.13%
PBTMargin(%) 19.02% 14.88% 27.24% (822)bps 414bps 4.30% 1.89% 241bps
Tax 41.35 27.14 50.67 18.39% 52.36% 121.75 93.66 29.99%
Tax(%) 38.80% 34.97% 35.04% 82.50% 173.35%
PATbeforeextraordinaryitems 65.21 50.48 93.93 30.58% 29.18% 25.82 39.63 165.15%
Extraordinaryitem 0 0 0 0 0
PATafterextraordinaryitems 65.21 50.48 93.93 30.58% 29.18% 25.82 39.63 165.15%
MinorityInterest 0 0 0 38.4 11.66 229.33%
SharesofProfit&LossinAssociates 0 0 0 15.64 35.97 143.48%
PATafterminorityinterest 65.21 50.48 93.93 30.58% 29.18% 3.06 87.26 103.51%
PATMargin(%) 11.64% 9.68% 17.69% (605)bps 196bps 0.09% 3.05% 314bps
PaidupEquityShareCapital 75.95 75.95 75.95 75.95 75.95
BasicEPS
0.86
0.66
1.24
30.58%
29.18%
0.04
1.15
103.51%
AdjustedEPS 0.86 0.66 1.24 30.58% 29.18% 0.04 1.15 103.51%
The Q4FY12 arrived with net sales of INR560.15 crore, which was reasonably up by 7.42% sequentially and 5.52% on YoY basis. This was mainly
throughthemediumofthetoplinegrowthdrivenbynewcapacityandFood&beveragesales.
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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TheEBITDAforthequarterturnedupatINR159.19crore,whichwasupby13.14%sequentially,but,cascadedby14.24%onyearlybasis.TheEBITDA
Margincameat28.42%,whichwasagainupby144bpssequentially,but,downby655bpsonyearlybasis.
The
fall
in
EBITDA
Margins
on
yearly
basis
was
due
to
a)
abrupt
sluggishness
in
occupancies
and
ARRs
b)
increase
in
staffing
costs
and
operating
expendituretothenewlylaunchedVivantabytajatBengaluruandc)noncashforeignexchangelossduetoadversecurrencymovements.
IHCLpostedaNetprofitofINR65.21crores,whichwasdescendedsharplyby30.58%onyearlyground,butoutperformedsequentiallybymarching
upby29.18%. Q4FY12attainedanetprofitmarginof11.64%,whichwasupby196bpssequentially,butdownby605bpsonyearlybasis.
TheEPSforthequarterwasINR0.86pershareascomparedtoINR0.66pershareinQ3FY12andINR1.24pershareinQ4FY11.
PeerComparison
KeyRisks&Concerns
HeavyCredenceonIndianoperations:IHCLheavilydependsonIndiasoperationsonforeigntouristarrivals,Foreignexchangeearningsandvisa
ontravels,
etc,
which
makes
it
inclined
to
the
domestic
economic
conditions.
Moreover,
the
operations
and
earnings
are
essentially
concentrated
in
keycities,mainlymetrocities.
CompetitionfromInternationalChain:TheIndiansubcontinent,SouthEastAsiaandAsiaPacificwithhighgrowthrateshavebecomethefocus
areaofmajor internationalchains.Severalofthesechains likeCarlson,Starwood,Marriot International,Accor,Hiltonand IntercontinentalHotels
have announced their plans to establish hotels to take advantageofthe demand supply imbalance. These entrants are expected to intensify the
competitiveenvironmentinthecomingyears.ThesuccessofTajGroupwillbedependentuponitsabilitytocompeteinareassuchasroomrates,
quality of accommodation, brand recognition, service level, and convenience of location and to a lesser extent, the quality and scope of other
amenities,includingfoodandbeveragefacilities.
Foreign exchangefluctuation risks:IHCL has a portfolio of foreign currency debt, in respect of which it faces exposure to fluctuations in
currencyaswellasinterestraterisks.
Dependence on the highend Luxury segment: Luxury hotels contribute a significant proportion of the total revenue and earnings of the
Company.Thissegmentisaffectedbytheinternationaleventsandtravelbehaviorandsuffersfromhighoperatingleverage.Adversedevelopment
affectingthesehotelsorthecitiesinwhichtheyoperatecouldhaveamateriallyadverseeffectonIHCL.
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,Bloomberg,INRinCrores
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June,2012
Valuation
WefollowedDiscountedCashFlow(DCF)approachtovalueIndianHotelsCompanyLimited(IHCL). Adescriptionofthevaluationisasfollows:
DiscountedCashFlow(DCF)
We utilized Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 7.98% to discount the future earnings of Indian hotels Company Ltd (IHCL). In
addition, we applied a terminal growth rate of 2.50% for the earnings beyondFY2016E. We arrived at the WACC with a Cost of Equity of
11.69%,post taxCostofDebtof4.45%,andDebttoEquityof1.05x.ByadoptingCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM),wearriveatCostto
Equity basedon MarketReturn of12.28%,RiskFreeRateof8.06%andBetaof0.86x. Furthermore, theCostof Debtrepresentsexpected
interestcost
after
deducting
the
tax
impact.
With
this,
our
DCF
valuation
reflects
atarget
price
of
`80.62
for
the
stock
with
aperiod
of
1year,
whichreflectsanupsideof35.15%fromtheCMPof`59.65.
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IncomeStatement
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,Note:TataSonsLimiteddatedJune22,2012,hasexercisedtheoptiontoconvert4,80,00,000Warrantswhereeach
WarrantentitledTataSonsLimitedtosubscribetooneOrdinaryShareoftheCompanyofINR1/ eachoftheCompanyatINR103.64pershare
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BalanceSheet
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,INRinCrores,Note:TataSonsLimiteddatedJune22,2012,hasexercisedtheoptiontoconvert4,80,00,000Warrants
whereeachWarrantentitledTataSonsLimitedtosubscribetooneOrdinaryShareoftheCompanyofINR1/ eachoftheCompanyatINR103.64pershare
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June,2012
CashFlowAnalysis
CashFlow
For
the
Year
Ended
March,
31st
Particulars(INRinCrores) FY200809A FY200910A FY201011A FY201112A FY201213E FY201314E
A.CashFlowFromOperatingActivities
NetProfitBeforeTax 158.51 33.73 24.75 147.57 182.33 304.60
Depreciation 188.46 218.54 227.95 255.07 254.97 271.36
Loss/(Profit)onassetssoldordiscarded 2.71 4.49 0.82
AmortizationofVRSexpenditure 0.3 0 0
profitonsaleofinvestments 0.04 39.16 4.08
Unrealizedexchangegainonfinancingactivities 20.9 2.39 14.08
ProvisionforDoubtfuldebts 4.5 8.22 4.15
ImpairmentofGoodwill 0 0 3.26
Expensesondiscountedprojectwrittenoff 0 0 5.2
Profitonsaleofhotels 2.03 5.72 4.29
InterestExpenses 230.46 306.14 251.15 193.38 193.60 191.60
InterestIncome 0 0 0.02
DividendIncome 48.74 20.08 17.89
Contingentprovisionagainststandardassets 0 0 0.12
Provisionforcontingentclaims 0 0.64 5.32
ProvisionforLoyaltyprogram 1.61 2.2 0.19
Provisionforcontingencies 0.2 0 0
ProvisionforEmployeeBenefits 11.09 0.66 9.03
OperatingProfitbeforeWCchanges 562.51 430.83 473.06 596.02 630.90 767.55
(Increase)/DecreaseinInventories 9.22 2.48 6.20 27.82 2.60 4.45
(Increase)/DecreaseinSundryDebtors 71.47 9.56 59.53 81.80 16.90 39.09
(Increase)/Decreaseinloansandadvances 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.80 68.35 48.25
Increase/(Decrease)inCurrent&Liabilities 48.50 56.55 12.49 58.28 130.91 73.32
(Increase)/DecreaseinOtherCurrentAssets 0 0 0 64.74 64.74 0
Cashgeneratedfromoperations 530.32 480.30 526.30 460.14 875.40 845.58
Directtaxespaid 191.42 53.19 13.61 121.75 127.63 152.30
NetCashfromOperatingActivities 338.9 427.11 512.69 338.39 747.77 693.28
B.CashFlowFromInvestingActivities
PurchaseofFixedAssets 793.64 508.51 412.65 641.17 400.00 250.00
SaleofFixedAssets 12.83 65.19 106.13
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SaleofInvestments 12 7720.93 3089.05
(Purchase)ofInvestments 352.11 7103.27 3717.24 601.91 160.58 84.00
InterestReceived
32.55
25.35
51.53
DividendReceived 69.45 34.77 31.98
DepositsRefundedby/(Placedwith)OtherCompanies(Net) 142.13 69.97 67.86
NetCashusedinInvestingActivities 1161.05 304.43 783.34 39.26 560.58 334.00
C.CashFlowFromFinancingActivities
DebentureIssue/Loanarrangementcosts 12.87 23.3 0.52
Repaymentoflongtermloans&debentures 192.63 791.32 364.34
Proceedsoflongtermloans&debentures 1287.4 1957.4 49.51 150 150
ShortTermLoansRaised/(Repaid)(Net) 449.47 1133.59 119.51 18.4 13.4
LongTerm
Trade
Deposits
Raised/(
Repaid)
30.67
1.89
8.66
Shareapplicationmoney 0.15 0 0
ProceedsfromissueofEquityshares 823.9 1.02 498.04 497.47
ProceedsfromissueofPreferencesharesbyasubsidiary 120 0 0
InterestPaid 230.1 324.43 290.68 193.38 193.60 191.60
DividendPaid(includingtaxondividend) 145.49 107.53 88.68 63.63 67.02
NetCashfrom/(Used)infinancingactivities 1231.56 423.64 85.82 193.38 71.84 422.02
Net(Increase)/Decreaseincash&cashequivalents 409.41 307.9 356.47 105.75 259.03 62.73
Cash&CashEquivalentsatbeginning 260.21 252.84 548.72 195.38 172.60 431.63
ImpactofEx.FluctuationsonCashandCashEquivalents 8.88 12.02 3.13
Cash&CashEquivalentsatEnd 678.5 548.72 195.38 301.13 431.63 368.89
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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June,2012
RatioAnalysis
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
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June,2012
MicrosecResearch:PhoneNo.: 913330512100 Email:[email protected]
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President,
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ShrivardhanKedia FPDProducts ManagerResearch [email protected]
ResearchSupport
SubhabrataBoral ResearchSupport Asst.ManagerTechnology [email protected]
Recommendation
StrongBuy >20%
Buy between10%
and
20%
Hold between0%and10%
Underperform between0%and10%
Sell
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7/24/2019 Indian Hotel PPT
26/27
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MicrosecRese25th
June,2012
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7/24/2019 Indian Hotel PPT
27/27
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MCL is not soliciting any action based on the report. No indication is intended from the report that the transaction undertaken based on the informcontained in this report will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their sp