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© 2012 International Monetary Fund April 2012 IMF Country Report No. 12/73
December 5, 2011 December 19,
2001
November 7, 2001 Romania: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania. In the context of the fourth review under the stand-by arrangement, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: The staff report for the fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for
Modification of Performance Criteria, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on February 6, 2012, with the officials of Romania on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on March 6, 2012. The views expressed in the staff report are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF.
A staff supplement dated March 19, providing an update on economic and policy developments.
A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its March 21, 2012 discussion of the staff report that completed the request and/or review.
A statement by the Executive Director for Romania.
The documents listed below have been or will be separately released: Letter of Intent sent to the IMF by the authorities of Romania*
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies by the authorities of Romania* Technical Memorandum of Understanding* *Also included in Staff Report
The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.
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ROMANIA
FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT AND REQUEST FOR MODIFICATION OF THE PERFORMANCE CRITERIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA): A 24-month, SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.4 billion,
US$5.0 billion, 300 percent of quota) Stand-By Arrangement was approved by the
Executive Board on March 25, 2011 (Country Report No. 11/80) and became effective
March 31, 2011. The fifth tranche of SDR 430 million (€505 million) will be made
available upon completion of this review. The authorities are treating the arrangement
as precautionary. Additional funds under the program are provided by the European
Union (also on a precautionary basis) and the World Bank.
Status of the current program: All end-December quantitative performance criteria
and indicative targets were met. The prior action on government approval of a
roadmap for deregulation of electricity prices is expected to be met. Modifications are
proposed to the adjustors to the NFA and fiscal targets. The newly-formed government
has publicly reaffirmed their commitment to the program and the policy agenda.
Key issues: The SBA review focused on four issues: (i) the potential impact of a more
pessimistic growth outlook on the public finances; (ii) progress on health care and tax
reforms; (iii) advances on the structural reform agenda, with a focus on SOE
restructuring, privatization and regulatory reforms in the energy sector; and,
(iv) strengthening of contingency planning and safety net mechanisms to ensure
financial sector stability.
March 6, 2012
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Approved By Poul Thomsen and Vivek Arora
Discussions were held in Bucharest, January 24–February 6, 2011. The mission met with President Basescu, Prime Minister Boc, Finance Minister Ialomiţianu, Central Bank Governor Isarescu, other senior officials, representatives of political parties, labor and business organizations, and financial institutions. A follow-up staff visit on February 21-22 met with new Prime Minister Ungureanu and members of his cabinet. The staff team comprised J. Franks (head), J. Ralyea, M. Stierle, A. Tuladhar, and L. Zhang (all EUR); F. Salman (SPR); F. Eich (FAD); and M. Dobler (MCM). T. Lybek (Resident Representative) assisted the mission. Discussions were held jointly with the EC, ECB, and World Bank staff.
CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY........................................................................................................... 4
II. MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK ................................................................. 6
A. Recent Developments ................................................................................................................................. 6
B. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks ....................................................................................................... 8
III. POLICY DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 10
A. Fiscal Policy .................................................................................................................................................. 10
B. Structural Reforms ..................................................................................................................................... 15
C. Financial Sector Policies .......................................................................................................................... 18
D. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies .............................................................................................. 20
IV. PROGRAM MODALITIES AND OTHER ISSUES ............................................................................... 22
V. STAFF APPRAISAL ........................................................................................................................................ 23 TABLES
1. Quantitative Program Targets ................................................................................................................... 36
2. Performance for Fourth Review ................................................................................................................ 37
3. Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2007–12 .......................................................................... 38
4. Macroeconomic Framework, Current Policies 2008–17................................................................... 39
5. Balance of Payments, 2009–17 .................................................................................................................. 40
6. Gross Financing Requirements, 2010–12 .............................................................................................. 41
7. General Government Operations, 2007–12 .......................................................................................... 42
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8. Monetary Survey, 2009–12 ......................................................................................................................... 44
9. Financial Soundness Indicators, 2008–11 .............................................................................................. 45
10. Schedule of Reviews and Purchases ........................................................................................................ 46
11. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2012–17.......................................................................................................... 47
12. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007–17 .................................................................. 48
13. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007–17 ............................................................................. 49 FIGURES
1. Real Sector, 2007–12 ..................................................................................................................................... 27
2. External Sector, 2007–11 .............................................................................................................................. 28
3. Labor Sector, 2007–11 .................................................................................................................................. 29
4. Monetary Sector, 2005–11 .......................................................................................................................... 30
5. Fiscal Operations, 2005–12 ......................................................................................................................... 31
6. Financial Sector, 2007–11 ............................................................................................................................ 32
7. Financial Developments ............................................................................................................................... 33
8. Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests ................................................................................................. 34
9. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests ............................................................................................. 35 BOXES
1. Inflation Targeting in Romania .................................................................................................................. 21
2. The Stand-By Arrangement ........................................................................................................................ 26 APPENDIXES
I. Letter of Intent ................................................................................................................................................. 50
II. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies ............................................................................ 53
III. Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) ............................................................................ 69
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I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
1. After two years of recession, growth
resumed in Romania in 2011, but the
economic outlook has deteriorated owing
to the European economic downturn. The
economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2011, driven
by an exceptional agricultural harvest and
strong industrial output growth. Domestic
demand strengthened as construction and
retail sales started to recover, fuelled by higher
real disposable incomes. However, growth is
likely to slow down this year as the effects of
the agricultural boom fade and the euro area
is forecast to fall into recession. While financial
market conditions have eased lately, the risk of
spillovers from the financial market turbulence
in the euro area remains high. Inflation has
declined considerably, and is expected to be
within the authorities’ end-2012 target range
(3 percent ± 1 ppt.). The current account
deficit is expected to remain below 4½ percent
of GDP. Political uncertainty from recent street
protests has receded, as the resignation of
Prime Minister Boc paved the way for a
government reshuffle. New Prime Minister
Ungureanu has reaffirmed his government’s
commitment to the program.
2. Romania’s performance under the
program remains strong. All performance
criteria and indicative targets for the fourth
review were met. The authorities have met the
structural benchmark on designing measures
to deregister a significant number of small VAT
payers to improve collection efficiency.
Progress has also been made in meeting the
structural benchmarks for SOE reforms and
investment prioritization. However, some key
steps remain to be fulfilled and the authorities
are expected to implement them by the time
of the next review. The draft legislation on
health care framework law is also being revised
to allow for wider consultations and is
expected to be completed by September.
3. Romania needs to maintain its
steadfast commitment to fiscal discipline
and step up efforts on the structural reform
agenda to ensure stable and sustainable
growth. The overperformance in tax
collections in 2011 should help compensate
for weakening growth prospects and keep the
budget deficit target of 1.9 percent of GDP
(2.1 percent of GDP including some off-budget
expenditures) within reach. Strict spending
discipline is still required to achieve this target,
particularly by containing current spending,
ensuring smooth implementation of the
clawback tax to contain health care costs, and
prioritization of EU-funded capital projects.
Implementation of the structural reform
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5
agenda is advancing, albeit slowly and
unevenly. The pace of reform needs to be
stepped up, especially with regards to
deregulation in the energy sector.
Restructuring of the state-owned enterprises is
crucial to attract much-needed investment and
boost growth. In light of high potential
spillover risks, Romania needs to continue
efforts to build up fiscal, financial, and foreign
exchange buffers and strengthen the toolkit
for contingency measures in the financial
sector. Together with the safety net provided
by the precautionary arrangements with
international financial institutions, these efforts
should help Romania weather the ongoing
financial storm.
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II. MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK A. Recent Developments
4. Romania’s economic recovery
continued, although early signs of a
slowdown are evident. Flash estimates show
that the economy posted growth of
2.5 percent in 2011, owing to an exceptional
agricultural harvest and strong export growth.
Domestic demand continued to recover, with
growth turning positive in construction and
retail sales bottoming out. Real wages in the
private sector increased, consumer confidence
is improving, and credit growth has picked up.
However, new manufacturing orders and
industrial production are slowing, reflecting
worsening prospects in the euro area. Private
sector job growth has also moderated.
5. Inflationary pressures receded on
the back of lower food prices. CPI inflation
fell to a record low 2.7 percent in January as a
result of food price deflation, which more
than offset the rise in administered prices and
the effect of exchange rate depreciation. Core
inflation1 has also declined to 2.4 percent.
1 As measured by the Core 3 indicator, which excludes energy, administered prices, unprocessed foods, alcohol, and tobacco.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 7
6. Financial market stress has
moderated after a period of heightened
pressures in November. The sovereign CDS
spread has declined by nearly 100 basis points
to around 370 b.p. In late January, the
government also successfully placed a
previously postponed USD 1½ billion 10 year
dollar denominated Eurobond issue amid a
favorable market response reflecting strong
demand for emerging market external debt so
far in 2012 and resumed inflows to emerging
market dedicated bond funds. Domestic
yields on treasuries have fallen and issuances
have been well subscribed, reflecting both the
recent monetary policy rate cuts and
improved liquidity condition in local currency.
After a 2½ depreciation of the leu in the
second half of 2011, exchange rate pressures
have recently been muted and the authorities
have not intervened since November.
International reserves remain comfortable at
€37.3 billion, and are still fully covering
short-term debt at residual maturity.
7. The current account deficit
narrowed, limiting pressures on external
financing. An improved trade balance,
reflecting strong exports of machinery,
automotive, and agricultural goods, coupled
with increased absorption of EU Funds helped
lower the current account deficit slightly to
4.3 percent of GDP in 2011.2 Deficit financing
was helped through increased IFI inflows3
2 Recent survey on services has led to a revision of the conversion rate from CIF to FOB from 1.08 to 1.04 by National Statistical Institute. The impact is €1.6 billion on imports; however with an increase in transport revenues by €1.1billion, the overall impact on the trade balance in goods and services is deterioration by €500 million. 3 IFIs disbursed €390 million for project financing and the World Bank finalized a DPL with a €400 million disbursement.
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8 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
offsetting the slowdown in private capital
flows. Intercompany lending continued to be
the major source of FDI, which declined by
14 percent compared to 2010. Non-resident
exposure to domestic treasury bills also
declined (to less than 10 percent of total stock
from the peak in July of over 20 percent).
Private external financing sources remain
weak, with bank and corporate sector
borrowing skewed heavily to the short-term
and rollover rates declining further in Q4.
B. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks
8. The growth outlook has weakened
due to potential adverse spillover effects
from the euro area while inflationary
pressures are expected to remain low.
Growth. In 2012, growth is likely to be less
robust than previously forecast due to the
effects of the worsening external
environment on exports and on domestic
demand (via the largely foreign-owned
banking system). Staff now projects 2012
growth to be 1.5 percent, driven by a
gradual rise in domestic private demand
and increased EU funds absorption.
Medium-term growth in 2013–16 is
expected to remain strong at 3.5 to
4 percent.
Inflation. Given modest growth in
domestic demand and muted pressures on
global food and energy prices, inflation is
likely to stay within the central bank’s
target band of 3 ± 1 percent. Reflecting
base effects of high food and fuel prices
last year, inflation will remain below
3 percent in the first half of 2012, before
gradually climbing above the middle of the
central bank’s target band later in the year.
The current account deficit is projected to
remain around 4-4¼ percent of GDP
in 2012, stabilizing at around 4½-5 percent
of GDP thereafter. In 2012, net exports are
expected to remain stable as the projected
recession in the eurozone should depress
export growth while also leading to
subdued import demand. On the financial
account, the government’s medium term
external bond placements and multilateral
financing are expected to be the main
sources of financing. The private sector will
likely continue rolling over short-term debt
in the first half o f the year, with medium
term rollover rates recovering only later.
FDI inflows are expected to remain
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 9
depressed amidst the faltering economy in
the euro area but prospective
privatizations could generate some
recovery. Under staff’s baseline scenario,
no new financing gap is envisaged,
consistent with the program’s
precautionary nature.
9. Risks to growth remain tilted to the
downside, given ongoing euro area
turbulence, while inflation risks are mainly
on the upside.
Growth. Downside risks arise mainly from
external sources. A further slowdown in
Europe and increased international
financial market turbulence could drag
down growth via the following channels:
first, lower external demand would depress
exports and dampen consumer sentiment;
second, financial market turbulence could
raise risk premia and affect capital flows to
Romania. The higher risk premium would
also increase banks’ funding costs and may
put significant downward pressures on the
exchange rate, which would lead to further
banking stress given the high degree of
Euroization of banks’ balance sheets; third,
ongoing bank deleveraging may lead to
further credit contraction and drag down
the recovery. On the upside, rapid
implementation of structural reforms and
faster absorption of EU-funded projects
could boost growth. The recent change in
government should improve political
stability through the upcoming elections,
reducing downside political risks to the
economic outlook.
Inflation. Risks are tilted to the upside.
Additional adjustments of administered
prices in the context of the structural
reforms, further exchange rate pressures
due to euro area turbulence, and a
possible rebound of food and oil prices
may push inflation higher than currently
forecasted. On the downside, the still large
negative output gap and slower-than-
expected economic recovery may drive
down core inflation further.
Romania: Macroeconomic Outlook2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth -6.6 -1.6 2.5 1.5 3.0CPI inflation, average 5.6 6.1 5.8 2.7 3.0CPI inflation, eop 4.9 8.0 3.1 3.3 3.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -4.4 -4.3 -4.4 -4.9Gross international reserves (bn euros) 30.9 36.0 37.3 37.5 37.4
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10 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
III. POLICY DISCUSSIONSA. Fiscal Policy
10. The authorities met the 2011
general government cash deficit target with
some margin. The deficit reached 4.2 percent
of GDP, below the program ceiling of
4.4 percent of GDP. Despite an
over-performance in tax revenue, reflecting
improvements in the labor market and
enhanced tax collection efforts, revenues
remained below projections as a result of low
EU grants. The revenue shortfall was more than
offset by tight current expenditure control,
especially on personnel and transfers, due to
declining public employment, lower
unemployment benefits, and fewer invalidity
and early pensioners. The large personnel
reductions have however started to give rise to
increased outsourcing of services, as reflected
in higher than expected goods and services
spending. A significant amount of the
expenditure savings were allocated to capital
spending at the end of the year, including to
clear arrears and unpaid bills in SOEs and the
health sector and to increase cofinancing of EU
funded projects. Capital spending was
particularly high in local governments and
self-financed institutions (e.g. universities)
which resulted in capital spending exceeding
1.201.23
1.28
1.361.40
1.38
1.27
1.20
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Public Sector Employment(Millions, end of period)
Source: Ministry of Public Finanace; IMF staff estimates.
Proj. Act. Diff. Difference(excl. swaps)
Total revenue 50.8 50.0 -0.8 -0.7 Current revenue 46.3 47.3 1.0 1.1
Tax revenue 40.6 41.7 1.1 1.2 Nontax revenue 5.7 5.6 0.0 0.0
Capital revenue 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Grants 4.8 2.5 -2.3 -2.3 Financial operations -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4
Total expenditure 61.1 60.2 -0.9 -0.8 Current 52.3 49.5 -2.8 -2.2
Personnel 11.5 9.7 -1.8 -1.8 Goods and services 8.2 9.6 1.4 1.4 Interest 2.9 2.4 -0.5 -0.5 Subsidies 2.2 2.0 -0.3 0.1 Transfers 26.7 25.2 -1.5 -1.3
Social assistance 17.2 17.0 -0.2 -0.2 Other transfers 7.2 3.7 -3.5 -2.9 EU funds, post-accession 2.0 3.7 1.7 1.7 Other expenditure 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5
Projects financed from external credits 0.8 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 Capital 8.2 10.7 2.5 2.0 Reserve fund 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Net lending 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5
Deficit/Surplus -10.3 -10.2 0.1 0.1
Memo item:Total capital spending 14.6 17.2 2.6Source: Romanian authorities; and staff projections.
(billions, RON)
Fiscal Performance, Oct-Dec 2011
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 11
the Q4 forecast by nearly ½ percent of GDP.4
11. The authorities remain on track to
reduce the 2012 cash deficit to below
2 percent of GDP. To bring the EU accrual
deficit well below 3 percent of GDP, the 2012
budget is based on a cash budget deficit of
1.9 percent of GDP5 (with an additional
0.2 percent of GDP in off-budget spending
under the Program for National Infrastructure
Development (PNDI) as agreed between the
MOPF and the implementing agencies).6
4 Of the RON 7 billion capital spending in December 2011, (i) the state budget spent RON 1 billion for arrears clearance for Electrificare and CFR Infrastructura, RON 200 million for the National Guarantee Fund and RON 800 million in transfers to the education sector; (ii) RON 2.5 billion was spent by local governments on transportation, public development and environment, which was financed partly by transfers from the central government to clear arrears (RON ½ billion) and increased EU funds; (iii) RON 1.7 billion was spent by the Road Company, again partly funded by transfers from the central government of RON ½ billion; and (iv) nearly RON 700 million was spent by self-financed institutions, funded through higher own revenues such as university fees. 5 The gap between ESA and cash deficits is traditionally on the order of 0.5 percent of GDP. The inclusion of additional SOEs in 2012 may add to the gap, but arrears repayment narrows it. In 2011, the gap is estimated to have narrowed to 0.2 percent of GDP. 6 In 2011, the government approved a multiyear PNDI program of about RON 20 billion (4 percent of GDP) that invests in rural and small town infrastructure projects, such as water, sewage, roads, etc. that will be undertaken over 2012–20 with budgetary payments made in 2015-20. The authorities have, thus far, signed contracts worth RON 3.5 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) under this program and expect work execution of RON 1 billion (0.2 percent of GDP) in 2012. To limit the impact of this program on the accruals based ESA deficit, the authorities have committed to restrict works execution to RON 1 billion (0.2 percent of GDP) in 2013 as well. The authorities are also discussing
(continued)
Despite the downward revision in economic
growth this year, higher than projected tax
yields carried over from last year—together
with lower expenditures—are expected to put
this ambitious target within reach. The
implementation of the clawback tax, the
proceeds of which is earmarked towards
paying down unpaid bills in the
pharmaceutical industry, should help avoid
accumulation of arrears in the health care
sector. Furthermore, the authorities remain
committed to continued expenditure restraint.
Measures include:
A lower wage bill via a freeze is in place
on public wages and pensions (though a
modest increase could be considered later
if economic conditions permit). Public
employment reductions continue,
replacing only 1 employee for every 7
departures, but applied at a higher
institutional level to allow for greater
flexibility.
Savings in capital expenditures by
terminating low-performing projects and
the reduction in the national co-financing
of EU-funded projects from 15 to
5 percent. Additional discretionary cuts in
non-EU funded capital spending may
nonetheless be needed to remain within
limits on contracting of projects so as to not jeopardize the attainment of the medium term objective for fiscal deficits under the EU commitments.
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12 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
the overall spending envelope given
underlying pressures in goods and services
spending.
Other savings from increased means-
testing of social programs, cuts in
subsidies, and transfers to SOEs, and
implementation of health sector reforms.
12. The authorities affirmed their
commitment to a further reduction in the
deficit in 2013. In keeping with the
requirements of the EU Fiscal Compact and the
possible ERM-II entry, the authorities will
target a cash deficit of 1 percent of GDP
(1.2 percent including PNDI projects and
1.5 percent on ESA basis) in their medium term
budget framework. Meeting this objective will
require continued strong spending restraint
and implementation of reforms to pensions
and other social transfers.
13. Arrears and unpaid bills decreased,
but challenges remain in local governments
and SOEs (MEFP ¶7). At the end of 2011,
general government arrears amounted to less
than 0.2 percent of GDP, mostly concentrated
at the local government level, particularly in
smaller communities. Improved enforcement
and monitoring of the 2010 local public
finance law (LGPFL), which requires all overdue
payments to be cleared before new
commitments are made, should enable further
reductions in the stock of arrears. The
authorities also plan to prioritize and conclude
multi-year contracts for capital projects within
the ceilings established in the medium term
budgetary strategy thereby enabling past
debts to be restructured and paid. In the
health sector, arrears in registered bills have
now been completely eliminated and
unregistered bills revealed during the 2011
stocktaking exercise are now fully recorded in
the system and scheduled for payment.
Outside of the general government, arrears in
SOEs monitored under the program fell to
2.9 percent of GDP at end of 2011,
0.3 percentage points lower than at the end of
the third quarter. Arrears continue to be
reduced in monitored SOEs through swap
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 13
operations to cancel tax arrears with the
government for overdue subsidies, payments
from budget bankruptcy procedures,
installment agreements and other financial
operations such as debt-equity swaps (with the
clearance by EU competition authorities).
Together, these measures are expected to
reduce SOE arrears by RON 5 to 6 billion
(1 percent of GDP) in the second half of 2012.
To better control spending commitments and
prevent new arrears, the integration of the
treasury payment system with the accounting
reporting system is underway.
14. Despite recent setbacks, the
authorities continue work on a
comprehensive reform of the health care
system. In January, a draft framework law that
envisaged sweeping changes in the health care
system was withdrawn due to significant public
objections. The authorities now expect to have
a revised draft by mid-year, which will aim to
address persistent budgetary shortfalls and
enhance service quality over the medium term.
A key element of the framework law will be to
define a publicly provided basic healthcare
package, with increased private sector
involvement in healthcare provision and
financing, such as through supplementary
private insurance and private management of
hospitals, with a view towards enhancing
efficiency and raising additional resources. The
key objective is to ensure that the system
better aligns its resources with needs. Public
healthcare spending in Romania is among the
lowest in the EU as a share of GDP, and
population aging will aggravate the funding
shortfall. In the near term, to ensure that
budget allocations to the health sector are
consistent with realistic spending programs,
the authorities also committed to
implementing several short term measures
towards cost-containment. These specific
initiatives include:
A negative list of health services and drugs
to be excluded from coverage, including
(i) revised lists of reimbursed drugs and
(ii) a reduction in hospitalization periods,
prepared in consultation with the World
Bank; and implementation of the national
hospital bed plan.
A revision of the copayment law that was
recently approved in Parliament, in order
to base it on a modest flat rate.
Transfer of responsibility for the collection
of health contributions for the
self-employed from the Health House to
the tax authority (ANAF) from July 2012.
15. The authorities continue to improve
their fiscal financing strategy. Taking
advantage of the favorable market conditions,
since January the authorities have been
prefinancing their funding needs in the
domestic market, amidst declining yields and
issuances that have been generally
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14 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
oversubscribed. They successfully relaunched
their Medium Term Note program by issuing a
US$1.5 billion 10-year dollar-denominated
eurobond in late January and reopened the
issue in late February for another
US$750 million. They plan to continue with
regular external bond issuances as market
conditions permit. To protect government
finances against external shocks, the
authorities are building up foreign currency
buffers (including €1 billion World Bank
DPL-DDO financing), with a view to
maintaining four months of gross financing
needs. Moreover, they continue to build the
yield curve, including with a recent launch of a
domestic bond with a 15 year maturity.
16. The absorption of EU structural
funds is improving but further efforts are
needed. At end-2011, certified absorption of
Structural and Cohesion Funds amounted
to €1.06 billion, or only 5.5 percent of
the 2007–13 allocation. Further efforts are
required to meet the authorities’ goal of
absorbing an additional €6 billion7
during 2012. To this end, the authorities have
identified high priority projects, strengthened
the capacity of management authorities, and
taken steps to reduce procedural bottlenecks
such as limiting the time to process
reimbursement claims. External assistance is
7 Total EU Funds absorption target, including agricultural funds.
also being sought to improve the technical
expertise of the managing authorities. The
authorities are making progress in compiling
an investment portfolio of all projects funded
by the state budget to ensure proper
monitoring and prioritization of projects. This
portfolio will be used to evaluate projects to
focus on those where funding can be fully
secured within a medium-term horizon
(e.g., 3–5 years), and to discontinue low
priority and non-performing projects that
cannot be fully financed within this horizon.
Over time the database’s coverage is being
widened to include state budget cofinanced
projects at the local government level, while
PNDI projects will also be monitored more
strictly.
17. Tax administration and policy
reforms remain a high priority in order to
reduce collection costs and improve
compliance. The authorities are making
progress in the areas of organizational
restructuring, administrative efficiency, risk
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 15
assessment, taxpayer segmentation, and
indirect audit methods. As part of efforts to
reduce collection costs, 141 regional offices
were closed, the number of large taxpayers
decreased from 3000 to 2000, and staff
reduced by 8 percent since end-2010.
Administrative measures are being undertaken
to reduce the number of small taxpayers
registered for VAT purposes by 20 percent
between September 2011 and 2012 (structural
benchmark). A tax compliance strategy
regarding High Net Wealth Individuals (HNWI)
is also being strengthened. Drawing on the
recommendations of IMF technical assistance,
the authorities plan to simplify depreciation
schedules, payments of capital gains taxes, and
deduction mechanism for personal income
taxation. Strategies for strengthening the
property tax base and excise taxes to preserve
real value will also be developed.
B. Structural Reforms
State-Owned Enterprises
18. Structural reforms in the energy and
transport sectors remain among the most
pressing challenges in Romania. The reform
agenda, developed in close consultation with
the European Commission and the World
Bank, focuses on changes to the regulatory
and price framework of the energy market, and
on restructuring SOEs, including arrears
clearance and privatization. Measures are also
envisaged to improve the transport
infrastructure. These reforms are
macroeconomically critical to ensure more
investment and greater efficiency in these vital
sectors of the economy and to put Romania
on a higher growth path. In 2011, the 22
companies under program monitoring ran a
deficit of 0.35 percent of GDP, and had arrears
of 2.6 percent of GDP, while subsidies from the
budget amounted to 0.5 percent of GDP.
19. Energy sector reforms need to be
stepped-up to attract higher investment,
achieve greater efficiency in production and
consumption, and achieve greater energy
independence. The authorities have increased
regulated gas prices by roughly 24 percent
since summer 2011, and agreed to an
adjustment of 5 percent in the regulated
electricity prices to non-residential and
residential customers by midyear. These
measures constitute an important first step
toward full cost recovery and more market-
based pricing. However, significant additional
action is needed to create an efficient energy
market, improve the financial condition of
energy SOEs, and to comply with EU energy
directives. In light of this, the authorities have
committed to the following reforms:
They have developed a roadmap, to be
approved by mid-March (prior action), to
ROMANIA
16 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
gradually adjust regulated electricity
prices for non-households, leading to full
liberalization of this segment by
January 2014. The roadmap will also
specify a gradual path for the liberalization
of the regulated electricity price paid by
households starting 2013 and concluding
by end-2017, with protections put in place
for vulnerable consumers.
In the gas sector, the authorities aim to
develop a roadmap for the deregulation of
gas prices by April. In the interim, the
authorities intend to consult with relevant
stakeholders to prepare a draft package of
tax, royalty, and regulatory measures for
the oil and gas sector. The authorities also
will actively seek to avoid a parliamentary
override of the presidential veto of the gas
export ban law.
Existing bilateral electricity contracts,
particularly those of the state-owned
electricity generator Hidroelectrica,
generate lost revenues on the order of
€175-220 million per year. The government
has agreed to seek ways to terminate or
renegotiate these contracts as soon as
legally possible.
To address regulatory deficiencies, a legal
draft has been prepared to transpose the
3rd EU Energy Package into Romanian
legislation. The draft adequately addresses
unbundling and vulnerable consumers, but
amendments are necessary to ensure the
independence of the energy regulator. The
authorities committed to approve the
amended legislation by emergency
ordinance by mid-February.
Strict enforcement of recent legal changes,
designed to avoid the accumulation of
new arrears to energy producers for
district heating is needed. The authorities
have agreed to analyze the situation, avoid
the accumulation of new arrears, and
propose legal changes if needed.
20. The authorities have made some
progress on restructuring SOEs, but
implementation remains uneven. The
end-2011 targets for both the operating
balance and arrears for companies under
monitoring were met, in part, through the use
of budgetary savings. However, 2012 budgets
for some SOEs are inadequate, and the
authorities have asked the line ministries to
resubmit revised restructuring plans by
end-February. Many of the agreed measures
designed to improve the viability of SOEs were
implemented; however, steps to prepare
several companies for privatization are
lagging. The authorities now plan to issue
privatization offers for four SOEs by end-April
(instead of seven as intended at the time of
the third review). Implementation of the new
governance law, which represents a major
improvement in the SOE governance
framework, has commenced. The Ministry of
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 17
Economy plans to select new management
teams for selected SOEs where the
government retains a majority share by end-
April 2012. The Ministry of Transport and
Industry intends to start a similar process in
February.
21. The government continues to slowly
improve the transport infrastructure and
enhance service provision. The authorities
are pursuing major infrastructure projects
utilizing EU structural funds. They also have
made some progress in closing underutilized
rail lines and streamlining the operations in
certain transport SOEs. Application of standard
costs in contracts has yielded cost savings and
measures to increase tariffs and toll collection
have generated revenue gains for passenger
rail, the Bucharest subway system, and the
national roads operator. However, without
significant further restructuring and aggressive
implementation of measures, the national rail
system operator and the national rail
passenger carrier will require substantial
government support to avoid accumulating
new arrears.
Other Reforms
22. The authorities continue
implementation of labor market and social
assistance reforms approved in 2011. The
new Social Dialogue Code has come into force
with an agreement now reached among social
partners regarding the sectoral definitions for
collective contracts under the new framework.
The authorities are committed to continue
consultations to ensure that the new Social
Dialogue Code respects core International
Labor Organization (ILO) conventions.
Secondary legislation on social assistance
reform is currently being drafted to implement
the 2011 Social Assistance Law, which aims to
streamline social benefits and improve the
efficiency of social protection. The labor and
pension reforms have already shown positive
impact. The new Labor Code has contributed
to employment recovery and increased the
share of fixed-term contracts. Enforcement of
the new pension law has dramatically reduced
the number of early retirements and misuse of
disability pensions. The national minimum
wage was also increased (from 670 lei to
700 lei) broadly in line with inflation.
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18 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
C. Financial Sector Policies
23. Provisions for impaired assets and
developments in the euro area continued to
weigh upon the Romanian banking sector
during the fourth quarter. The sector as a
whole recorded a loss of 1.4 percent of
average equity over the year, as the slow
recovery impacted upon borrowers’ repayment
capacity and credit quality. Lending remained
weak, particularly lending to individuals, and
was flat in real terms over the fourth quarter.
The ratio of non-performing loans to total
loans ended the fourth quarter marginally
lower at 14.1 percent as impairments
decelerated. Total provisions at end-December
were sufficient to cover 99.5 percent of
non-performing loans. The banking system
remained well-capitalized with an average
capital adequacy ratio of 14.5 percent at
end-December supported by new capital
injections of RON 1.6 billion. The authorities
continue to take a proactive approach to
requesting additional capital from
shareholders of individual banks before they
approach the statutory minimum of 8 percent.
The aggregate exposure to Romania of the
nine largest foreign banks that participated in
the European Bank Coordination Initiative
stood at 101 percent of the March 2009 level.8
8 While they have not agreed on a specific target exposure level, going forward these banks have
(continued)
However, a potential loss of parent funding
and resulting deleveraging remains a major
risk due to the regional economic downturn
and international financial turbulence.9
24. The authorities are taking steps to
address non performing loans which have
accumulated on bank balance sheets. The
authorities will revise the tax treatment of bank
loans sold to Romanian entities to remove
current tax disincentives, and will undergo an
assessment by the World Bank of the
arrangements for insolvency and creditor
rights in spring 2012. In light of the continued
weak recovery, the NBR is adopting a more
flexible approach to allow banks to extend the
restructuring period for loans which continue
to perform under the restructured terms. Staff
emphasized the importance of close
monitoring to mitigate the risk of
‘evergreening’ and ensure that loan-loss
provisioning remains prudent. The NBR will
continue to intensively supervise the banking
system and take necessary measures to ensure
that banks have sufficient capital and liquidity.
affirmed their long-term commitment to the country and continue to report exposures. 9 Based on a partial equilibrium analysis, a 10 percent decline in exposure is estimated to reduce GDP growth by 1.8 percent (Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011). Ongoing household deleveraging would likely mitigate some of this impact.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 19
Given the difficult funding conditions and
economic outlook, further capital will be
required, particularly at some small and
medium sized banks with high cost ratios,
rising loan impairments, and lower than
average provisions. However, systemwide
capital needs are likely to be lower in 2012
than in 2011.
25. The authorities are making further
progress to strengthen the institutional
framework and operational preparedness of
the financial safety net. Staff discussed the
NBR’s latest liquidity and solvency stress tests
to identify where further support would be
required from shareholders under various
scenarios.
Emergency lending: The NBR is taking steps
to place its contingency plans onto an
advanced stage of operational
preparedness, including by being able to
widen collateral classes for emergency
lending assistance.
Bank resolution framework: Amendments
were adopted in January to the bank
resolution legislation to introduce bridge
bank and other stabilization powers for
dealing with failing banks, as well as to
improve the efficacy with which the
Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) could
augment its resource by borrowing from
the MoPF.
26. The authorities have taken steps to
strengthen institutional arrangements and
coordination between the financial safety
net participants. The DGF has joined the
National Committee for Financial Stability
(NCFS), and a joint working group overseen by
the NBR’s banking supervision department has
been established. An MoU will be signed by
the NBR and the DGF by end-February to
ensure that the DGF is given sufficient
information on potential problem institutions
early on to enable it to prepare to meet its
obligations effectively. Going forward, the
authorities will finalize procedures for
deploying the bank resolution powers,
including bridge bank and purchase and
assumption powers. These will build upon
experience available from other EU countries
which have recently adopted these powers,
and incorporate lessons from the crisis
simulation exercise to be undertaken in
spring 2012 with World Bank support. The
NBR, DGF and MoPF will at the highest levels
collectively review and approve the
operational preparedness and inter-agency
arrangements for the financial safety net by
end April 2012.
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20 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
D. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
27. The central bank has gradually
reduced its policy rate amid abating
inflationary pressures. Since November, the
NBR eased by a cumulative 75 basis points to
5.5 percent. The exchange rate has also
weakened slightly in recent months, leading to
a further relaxation of the monetary stance.
Nonetheless, inflation is expected to stay
within the central bank’s target band of
3+1 percent given the weak domestic demand
and muted pressures on global food and
energy prices (see box). While the impact of
the rate cuts on exchange rate and capital
flows appears to be limited so far, the
authorities are cognizant of potential risks to
inflation arising from administrative price hikes
and excess exchange rate volatility due to
financial market instability. In light of these
risks, staff recommended caution in further
rate cuts, and urged the authorities to
maintain existing reserve requirements for
both local currency and FX deposits.10 The
central bank has been active in providing
weekly repos to ensure adequate liquidity in
the banking system. This has eased RON
liquidity conditions, and led the overnight
interbank market rate to decline sharply
compared to November. Euro funding from 10 The NBR recently approved a new regulation relaxing the reserve requirement for deposits with residual maturities over 2 years which have been rolled over. Previously, these deposits were still subject to the reserve requirements even after extending the maturity to above 2 years.
parent banks has also improved, owing to the
LTRO operation of the ECB and the authorities
have not intervened in the foreign exchange
market lately. Romania’s exports continue to
gain world market share and staff’s exchange
rate assessment based on extended CGER
analysis does not show a misalignment in the
currency.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 21
Box 1. Inflation Targeting in Romania Since adopting the inflation targeting regime in 2005, there has been significant disinflation in Romania. However, the NBR has been successful in achieving its end-year inflation target only twice (in 2006 and 2011). This box summarizes the key factors that prevented the NBR from reaching its target in the past and the challenges ahead.
Fiscal dominance. From 2005 to 2008, public
wages grew at around 20-30 percent while public employment expanded by 3 percent annually, on average. Given tight labor market conditions, this spilled over into the double digit private sector wage growth, overstimulating aggregate demand and pushing up unit labor costs and inflation. On the tax policy side, excise increases related to EU harmonization, and the 5 percentage VAT hike in 2010 also impacted inflation.
Food and energy price shocks. Food accounts for an unusually large weight in Romania’s CPI basket (35 percent), while energy has a lower share (~8 percent) but has strong second-round effects. Since 2005, food and energy inflation have contributed more than half of headline inflation in most years. In 2011 as well, a bumper domestic harvest
put significant downward pressures on food prices, driving down headline inflation.
Weak monetary policy transmission. Despite tightening monetary policy in 2007-08, the NBR’s ability to stabilize inflation was hindered by weak transmission of policy rates due to two key factors: (i) High FX lending (63 percent of the total), occurs at rates closely linked to external factors such as the EURIBOR rate and the sovereign CDS spread rather than to domestic monetary policy; and (ii) a wide interest rate corridor of ± 400 b.p. around the policy rate (between the NBR’s deposit facility and credit facility rate) allows for higher volatility in the interbank rate and greater decoupling of the money market rate from the policy rate. In periods of excess liquidity, the money market rate has been very close to the deposit facility rate, implying a much looser monetary stance than what the policy rate signals.
Going forward, the central bank still faces challenges in achieving its inflation target. Prudent fiscal policy will remain crucial in maintaining conditions for low inflation. As the economy recovers, Romania may also experience renewed wage pressures, though these may be attenuated by recent labor market reforms. Needed adjustments in administered prices may produce second round effects. Given the historical high inflation rate in Romania, anchoring inflation expectations may be challenging until households adapt to the low-inflation environment. To better control price stability, the central bank should continue to enhance its operational framework to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
ROMANIA
22 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
IV. PROGRAM MODALITIES AND OTHER ISSUES28. The attached Letter of Intent (LOI),
and Memorandum of Economic and
Financial Policies (MEFP) describe the
authorities’ progress in implementing their
economic program and sets out their
commitments through end-June 2012.
Some modifications to the program’s
conditionality are proposed (Tables 1–2):
One prior action and a new structural
benchmark are proposed. (Table 2)
Government approval of a roadmap for the
deregulation of electricity prices is
proposed as a prior action. Also, an
increase of 5 percent in the electricity price
for residential and nonresidential
consumers by end-June 2012 is proposed
as a new structural benchmark. These
measures are essential to help normalize
the electricity market, helping to secure
future investment in the sector needed for
economic growth, and to ameliorate losses
in SOEs thus improving fiscal sustainability.
A modification in the end-March and end-
June NFA target is proposed. The end-
quarter targets are unchanged; however
the adjustor for end-March 2012 is revised
due to a change in the size of external
bond placement and an adjustor on the
size of the MOPF external bond placement
is introduced for end-June 2012, reflecting
risks due to the deteriorating external
environment.
A modification in the end-March adjustor to
the general government balance is
proposed. The end-March 2012 adjustor on
capital expenditures is increased to allow
more front loading of capital spending in
line with the higher capital transfers
needed for SOE reforms, and an adjustor
for end-June 2012 is introduced.
Program modalities. Romania is not expected
to face actual balance of payments financing
needs in 2012 under the baseline scenario, and
the Stand-By Arrangement as well as financing
commitments from the European Union will
continue to be treated as precautionary. Program risks. Romania’s capacity to repay
the Fund is expected to remain strong. Fund
credit outstanding would decline from
39.2 percent of gross reserves in 2012. Peak
payments would be in 2013–14 at a still
manageable 14.1 and 13.6 percent of gross
reserves and around 8.7 and 7.4 percent of
exports of goods and services. While this
exposure remains large, servicing risks are
mitigated by the relatively low level of public
debt. Public indebtedness (including
guarantees) is expected to remain under
36 percent of GDP, with public external debt
peaking at around 18 percent of GDP in 2012.
Total external debt has peaked at 74.5 percent
of GDP in 2010 and will decline in the medium
run. In addition, a 2011 update of the 2009
safeguards assessment found a robust
safeguards framework at the NBR, while
recommending measures to sustain NFA
reporting standards and effective audit
oversight, and enhance accounting disclosures.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 23
V. STAFF APPRAISAL29. Economic growth resumed in
Romania last year, but with the pace of
recovery losing momentum and high risks
in Europe, a strong commitment to
economic reform and cautious policy stance
must continue. Given slowing manufacturing
exports, the fading effects of the agricultural
boom, and severe winter weather, growth
prospects depend crucially on the ability to
absorb more EU funds and political stability in
the run up to elections. The risks of spillovers
remain high and the authorities are
appropriately fortifying Romania’s defenses.
Financial market stress has eased lately and
the authorities have wisely used this window of
opportunity to build up fiscal financing buffers
through higher than planned issuances in the
domestic debt market and a successful
Eurobond issue. To guard against the risk of a
decline in capital inflows and banking
instability, the authorities should continue to
ensure that foreign exchange buffers and
capital buffers in the banking system are
maintained. The Fund-EU precautionary
program, together with the forthcoming credit
line from the World Bank, should help cushion
against these risks and provide an important
policy anchor. In this regard, the incoming
government’s strong affirmation of their
commitment to the program and the policy
agenda is welcome.
30. Continued strong spending
discipline and improved tax collections are
needed to achieve the ambitious 2012
deficit target. On the spending side, despite
considerable public pressure, the government
has decided to postpone any consideration of
public wage and pension increases. This
cautious fiscal stance provides an important
signal of Romania’s firm commitment to
spending discipline. The authorities have also
maintained tight control on current spending
through large reductions in public
employment and consolidating social transfers.
While the strict employment rationalization
policy has been effective in controlling the
wage bill, greater flexibility is needed in
applying this policy across institutions. Over
time, the focus must shift from employment
reduction to more comprehensive
restructuring of ministries’ operations, guided
by the recently completed functional reviews.
31. Prioritization of capital spending
will be necessary to ensure proper
utilization of scarce resources and to secure
adequate funding for cofinancing of EU
funded projects. It will be important to ensure
proper prioritization of capital projects with a
strong focus on EU-funded projects to
maximize cost effectiveness and efficiency. In
this regard, the improvement in EU funds
absorption late last year and greater scrutiny
and monitoring of the EU-funded projects at
the highest levels of government are
encouraging; but the EC’s recent decision to
suspend reimbursement payments for some
ROMANIA
24 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
programs indicate that administrative capacity
still needs to be strengthened considerably.
Considering that many ongoing projects
remain underfunded, staff supports the
government’s intention to channel resources
towards capital projects nearing completion
rather than initiating new projects. The
government’s recent undertakings in
off-budget capital projects such as PNDI go in
the wrong direction in terms of improving
transparency and control of public resources
and should be halted.
32. The recent decision to revisit the
comprehensive health care law and
undertake wider consultations and public
engagement is encouraging. While the
authorities’ plans to allow more private sector
involvement in health care financing and
provision are welcome, adequate monitoring
and regulatory mechanisms are also needed.
An overly hasty privatization of basic service
would invite problems in care delivery as well
as system financial stability. Revenue measures
to adequately fund the system will be
necessary. There are still considerable
implementation risks with the clawback tax,
while the copayment law, as currently
legislated, is administratively unfeasible. A
viable clawback tax and copayment system are
crucial to contain health care costs in the near
term while the comprehensive reforms are
prepared.
33. Structural reforms have been
advancing but progress remains uneven
and faster implementation is essential if
sustainable economic growth is to be
maintained. Important steps have been
undertaken: the SOE governance legislation
has passed, the process for appointing private
management in SOEs is advancing, and
privatization steps, such as hiring of legal and
transactions advisers, have progressed in
several cases. However, in other cases,
privatization steps are delayed, and reforms in
a number of SOEs are inadequate to ensure
financial viability. More ambitious reforms—
including deeper reforms and majority
privatizations—are necessary to attract much
needed capital investment. Restructuring of
public enterprises also needs to be stepped up
to limit the burden on the budget and to
improve efficiency of scarce public resources.
Non-viable enterprises should be liquidated.
Furthermore, deregulation in the energy sector
continues to lag, especially in the gas sector
and political commitment to move forward
appears low. The authorities need to press
forward more firmly on outlining a plan that
assures that prices are better aligned with cost
recovery rates, while protecting vulnerable
consumers.
34. The authorities continue efforts to
ensure that the banking system remains
stable and resilient against external shocks.
With more than 80 percent of the banking
system controlled by foreign banks (including
a number from euro area crisis countries),
Romania is particularly vulnerable to the
increasing banking sector uncertainties
elsewhere in Europe. However, the impact of
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 25
the Euro area bank deleveraging on the
Romanian banking system has been limited
thus far. To forestall contagion effects,
Romania has built significant capital and
liquidity buffers in the system while preparing
detailed contingency plans for any banking
problems. The authorities need to ensure that
the newly acquired powers for banking
resolution can be quickly operationalized.
Clear coordination and information sharing
amongst the different agencies involved is
necessary as contagion could potentially come
through many channels at once on the back of
a global repricing of risk. The authorities also
need to remain alert to difficulties in small
local banks. Given weak bank profitability and
tepid credit conditions, regulatory initiatives to
deal with an overhang of impaired assets on
the banks’ books would be a welcome move
towards ensuring faster credit recovery.
35. Amid slowing growth prospects and
receding supply shocks, the NBR is now
well-placed to meet its 2012 inflation
target. The 75 bp cumulative cut in the policy
rate since November has not had any
demonstrable impact on exchange rate
depreciation or pressures on capital outflows.
The ECB’s LTRO operations have likely helped
minimize any such adverse impact of the rate
cut. Nevertheless, with some euro area banks
deleveraging and external borrowing
increasingly skewed to the short term,
vulnerability to a decline in capital inflows is on
the rise. In this context, the NBR will need to
maintain sufficient coverage of foreign
currency buffers and stay vigilant against an
adverse impact on the exchange rate. Staff
recommends caution in further monetary
policy easing in the coming months in light of
possible capital outflows or renewed
downward pressures on the exchange rate. The
real exchange rate remains broadly in line with
fundamentals.
36. While Romania is relatively well
situated to deal with an economic
downturn, the authorities must be prepared
in the event of a significant adverse shock.
Fiscal financing buffers are increasing
compared to the beginning of the program,
and the forthcoming World Bank DPL-DDO will
provide additional precautionary funding.
Coverage of foreign exchange buffers is still
adequate and the authorities have now
accumulated significant access under the
IMF/EU program to provide additional support
if needed. Given these significant cushions, if
growth slows further there is room to let
automatic stabilizers play. In the event of a
sudden stop of capital inflows or banking
system stress from a disorderly credit event in
the eurozone, however, some exchange rate
flexibility and activation of the precautionary
credit line with the IFIs would be needed.
37. On the basis of Romania’s
performance under the SBA, staff supports
the authorities’ requests for completion of
the fourth review under the arrangement.
Staff also recommends approval of the
modification of the program conditionality, as
proposed in the attached MEFP.
ROMANIA
26 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Box 2. The Stand-By Arrangement
Access: SDR 3,090.6 million, 300 percent of quota.
Length: 24 months.
Phasing: SDR 60 million was made available upon effectiveness of the newly approved arrangement, which was approved on March 25, 2011, and became effective on March 31, 2011. The subsequent three disbursements amounting to SDR 1.29 billion became available during June–December 2011 with the completion of the first through third reviews. SDR 430 million will be made available subject to the completion of this review. Four subsequent disbursements, totally SDR 1310.6 million, are contingent upon completion of the fifth to the eighth review.
Conditionality
Quantitative Performance Criteria
A floor on the change in net foreign assets
A ceiling on central government and social security domestic arrears
A floor on the overall general government cash balance
A ceiling on general government guarantees
Non-accumulation of external debt arrears
Quantitative Indicative Targets
A ceiling on general government current primary spending
A ceiling on local government domestic arrears
A floor on the operating balance and a ceiling on arrears of the key loss-making SOEs
A ceiling on the execution of the PNDI program
A consultation band around the 12-month rate of inflation of consumer prices
Prior Action
Approve a roadmap for the deregulation of electricity prices as specified in the MEFP.
Structural Benchmarks
Undertake SOE reforms, including (i) Appointment of legal advisors for privatization of CFR Marfa, TAROM, Transelectrica, Transgaz, and Romgaz; (ii) Preparation of action plans for the remaining SOEs of the central government; (iii) Design mechanisms to facilitate restructuring and securitizing SOE arrears. July 15, 2011.
Completion of a comprehensive review of the existing investment portfolio, which will prioritize and evaluate existing projects to focus on those where funding can be fully secured, examine the viability of old projects, with low priority and unviable ones discontinued, and production of a final report and an action plan. September 30, 2011.
Prepare comprehensive amendments to the health care legislation to address the persistent budgetary shortfalls and to ensure high quality health care services. December 31, 2011.
Design measures to reduce registration of small VAT payers by 20 percent by end-September 2012(Compared to end-September 2011). December 31, 2011.
Appoint transaction advisor for group 2 and legal advisor for group 3 as specified in MEFP. February 15, 2012
An increase of 5 percent in the electricity price for both residential and nonresidential consumers. June 30, 2012 (proposed)
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 27
Figure 1. Romania: Real Sector, 2007–12
Source: Haver.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Real GDP DynamicsReal GDP, 2000 prices, SA (billion RON)
QoQ, sa (rhs)
YoY (rhs)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
GDP Components Contribution(in percent)
ImportsExportsInvestmentConsumptionGDP growth (yoy)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1
Confidence Indicators
Services Confidence, balance
Retail Trade Confidence, balance
Consumer Confidence, balance
Industrial Confidence, balance
Economic Sentiment Indicator, long-term average=100 (rhs) -40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1
Industrial Production and New Orders(SA, yoy )
New Manufacturing OrdersIndustrial Production
ROMANIA
28 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Figure 2. Romania: External Sector, 2007–11
Source: Haver; National Bank of Romania.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1
Romania Trade(Billions of Euro)
Trade Balance (12 months, lhs)Exports (sa)Imports (sa)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Current Account(Percent of GDP)
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Income Balance(Percent of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Current Transfers(Percent of GDP)
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Capital and Financial Account(Percent of GDP)
Other InvestmentPortfolio investmentFDICapital AccountCapital and Financial
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1
Forex Reserves excl. Gold and Coverage(Million of Lei)
Reserves coverage (Short-term Debt)Forex Reserves
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 29
Figure 3. Romania: Labor Sector, 2007–11
Source: Haver.
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1
Average Gross Monthly Wages(Lei per person)
Public Wages
Private Wages
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1
Public and Manufacturing Employment(in million )
Total Employees (rhs)Public EmployeesManufacturing
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Productivity- economy wide(SA, 2005=100)
Average Gross Monthly Wage
Output per Employee (rhs)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
ULC -economy wide(Index, 2007Q1=100)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1
Registered Unemployment(Percent)
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
Labor Force(Yoy, Percent)
Unemployment
Employment (rhs)
ROMANIA
30 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Figure 4. Romania: Monetary Sector, 2005–11 (Percent)
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 31
Figure 5. Romania: Fiscal Operations, 2005–12 (Percent of GDP)
ROMANIA
32 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Figure 6. Romania: Financial Sector, 2007–11
Source: Dxtime; Romania National Bank.
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000RON Credit
(Millions of Lei)
Total
Households
Corporate
Other
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000FX Credit
(Millions of Lei)
Total
Households
Corporate
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
2008Q4 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3
Loan to Deposit Ratio(Percent)
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.8
14.0
14.2
14.4
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.2
2008Q4 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3
Capital Adequacy Ratio(Percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2008Q4 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3
Non-Performing Loans(Percent of total loans)
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2008Q4 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3
Profitability(Percent )
Return on Equity
Return on Assets
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 33
Figure 7. Romania: Financial Developments
Source: Bloomberg; Haver.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
7/1/
2008
9/23
/200
812
/16/
2008
3/10
/200
96/
2/20
098/
25/2
009
11/1
7/20
092/
9/20
105/
4/20
107/
27/2
010
10/1
9/20
101/
11/2
011
4/5/
2011
6/28
/201
19/
20/2
011
12/1
3/20
11
National Currency per Euro(July 1, 2008 = 100)
CzechHungaryPolandRomania
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004
M1
2004
M7
2005
M1
2005
M7
2006
M1
2006
M7
2007
M1
2007
M7
2008
M1
2008
M7
2009
M1
2009
M7
2010
M1
2010
M7
2011
M1
2011
M7
2012
M1
Real Effective Exchange Rates (Jan 2004 = 100)
BulgariaCzechHungaryPolandRomania
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
7/1/
2008
9/23
/200
812
/16/
2008
3/10
/200
96/
2/20
098/
25/2
009
11/1
7/20
092/
9/20
105/
4/20
107/
27/2
010
10/1
9/20
101/
11/2
011
4/5/
2011
6/28
/201
19/
20/2
011
12/1
3/20
11
CDS, 5-year
BulgariaCzechHungaryPolandRomania
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1801/
1/20
074/
1/20
077/
1/20
0710
/1/2
007
1/1/
2008
4/1/
2008
7/1/
2008
10/1
/200
81/
1/20
094/
1/20
097/
1/20
0910
/1/2
009
1/1/
2010
4/1/
2010
7/1/
2010
10/1
/201
01/
1/20
114/
1/20
117/
1/20
1110
/1/2
011
1/1/
2012
Equity Markets(Jan. 4, 2007 = 100)
BulgariaCzechHungaryPolandRomania
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1/1/
2007
3/26
/200
76/
18/2
007
9/10
/200
712
/3/2
007
2/25
/200
85/
19/2
008
8/11
/200
811
/3/2
008
1/26
/200
94/
20/2
009
7/13
/200
910
/5/2
009
12/2
8/20
093/
22/2
010
6/14
/201
09/
6/20
1011
/29/
2010
2/21
/201
15/
16/2
011
8/8/
2011
10/3
1/20
111/
23/2
012
Interbank Offer Rates (3-months, in percent)
BulgariaCzechHungaryPolandRomania
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1/1/
2007
3/26
/200
76/
18/2
007
9/10
/200
712
/3/2
007
2/25
/200
85/
19/2
008
8/11
/200
811
/3/2
008
1/26
/200
94/
20/2
009
7/13
/200
910
/5/2
009
12/2
8/20
093/
22/2
010
6/14
/201
09/
6/20
1011
/29/
2010
2/21
/201
15/
16/2
011
8/8/
2011
10/3
1/20
111/
23/2
012
EMBIG Spreads(Bps)
BulgariaEuro AreaHungaryPolandRomania
ROMANIA
34 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Figure 8. Romania: Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/ 2/ (Public debt in percent of GDP)
Growth shock
43
Baseline27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Growth shock(in percent per year)
PB shock 33
Baseline 27
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
i-rate shock
31
Baseline 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Interest rate shock(in percent)
Sources: International Monetary Fund, country desk data, and staff estimates.1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year historical average for the variable is also shown.2/ For historical scenarios, the historical averages are calculated over the ten-year period, and the information is used to project debt dynamics five years ahead.3/ Permanent 1/4 standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and primary balance.4/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent and 10 percent of GDP shock to contingent liabilities occur in 2013,with real depreciation defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
Historical 31
Baseline 27
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Baseline and historical scenarios
Combined shock 34
Baseline 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Combined shock 3/
30 % depreciati
on 37
Baseline 27
contingent liabilities
shock 36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Real depreciation and contingent liabilities shocks 4/
Gross financing need under baseline
(right scale)
Primary balance shock (in percent of GDP) andno policy change scenario (constant primary balance)
No policy change
Baseline: 0.7Scenario: -0.4Historical: -2.2
Baseline: 3.7Scenario: 1.4Historical: 3.9
Baseline: 1.7Scenario: 4.3Historical: -5.5
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 35
Figure 9. Romania: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/
i-rate shock
61
Baseline 60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Interest rate shock (in percent)
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Country desk data, and staff estimates.1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year historical average for the variable is also shown. 2/ For historical scenarios, the historical averages are calculated over the ten-year period, and the information is used to project debt dynamics five years ahead.3/ Permanent 1/4 standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and current account balance.4/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent occurs in 2013.
Historical56
Baseline60
10
20
30
40
50
60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Baseline and historical scenarios
CA shock 68
Baseline 60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Combined shock
68
Baseline 60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Combined shock 3/
30 % depreciation
90
Baseline60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Real depreciation shock 4/
Gross financing need under baseline
(right scale)
Non-interest current account shock (in percent of GDP)
Growth shock
66
Baseline 60
30
50
70
90
110
130
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Growth shock (in percent per year)
Baseline:
Scenario:
Historical:
2.42.8
3.7
Baseline:
Scenario:
Historical:
3.71.4
3.9
Baseline:
Scenario:
Historical:
-3.6
-5.4
-6.0
ROM
ANIA
36 IN
TERNATIO
NAL M
ON
ETARY FUN
D
2010Dec March March June Sept Dec
Actual Actual Actual Actual Prog. Prelim. Prog. Prog. Indicative Indicative
I. Quantitative Performance Criteria1. Floor on the change in net foreign assets (mln euros) 1/ 2/ 20,026 119 1896 292.8 -500 -457 0 250 250 4502. Floor on general government overall balance (mln lei) 3/ -33,621 -5,254 -11260 -13,685 -23,953 -23,837 -3,100 -6800 -8500 -122103. Ceiling on stock of central government and social security arrears (bn lei) 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.024. 7.6 8.1 6.0 5.8 14.0 6.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
II. Continuous Performance Criterion5. Nonaccumulation of external debt arrears 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
III. Inflation Consultation6. 12-month rate of inflation in consumer prices
Outer band (upper limit) … … … … 5.7 … 4.1 4.4 5.9 5.2Inner band (upper limit) … … … … 4.7 … 3.1 3.4 4.9 4.2Actual/Center point 7.9 8.0 8.0 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.2Inner band (lower limit) … … … … 2.7 … 1.1 1.4 2.9 2.2Outer band (lower limit) … … … … 1.7 … 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.2
IV. Indicative Target7. Ceiling on general government current primary spending (excl. EU funds and social assistance, mln lei) 131,938 30,670 62,578 94,133 130,700 128,317 32,000 64,800 96,350 130,8508. Floor on operating balance (earnings before interest and tax, net of subsidies) of key SOEs. 4/
(as defined in TMU (bn. lei)) -6.8 -0.7 -1.8 -2.4 -3.9 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.7 -3.29. Ceiling on stock of arrears of key SOEs (as defined in TMU (bn. lei)) 4/ 17.9 19.2 19.7 18.5 15.9 14.9 17.0 15.0 12.5 9.010. Ceiling on stock of local government arrears (bn lei) 0.91 0.82 0.81 0.82 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.50 0.45 0.3011. Ceiling on the execution of the PNDI program (mln, lei) 5/ … … … … … … 200 400 700 1000
1/ The end-December 2010 figure is a stock.2/3/ Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g. March 2011 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2011). 4/ Adjusted indicative targets for end-September and end-December in 2011, reflecting the merger of SOEs under monitoring. 5/ Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g. March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012).
Ceiling on general government guarantees issued since end-2008 (face value, bn lei)
Cumulative flows relative to previous year end stock. 2011 December target is adjusted down from 500 million to -500 million reflecting the delayed Eurobond issurance.
Table 1. Romania: Quantitative Program Targets 2011 2012
June Sept Dec
INTERN
ATION
AL MO
NETARY FU
ND
37
ROM
ANIA
Measure Target Date Comment
1 Approve a roadmap for the deregulation of electricity prices as specified in the MEFP.
Quantitative performance criteria1. Floor on net foreign assets Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on general government overall balance Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on central government and social security domestic arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on general government guarantees Dec. 31, 2011 Met5. Non-accumulation of external debt arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Quantitative Indicative Target1. Ceiling on general government current primary spending Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on operating balance of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on stock of arrears of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on stock of local government arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Inflation consultation bandInner band Dec. 31, 2011 MetOuter band Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Structural benchmarks1. Undertake SOE reforms, including (i) Appointment of legal advisors for privatization of CFR Marfa, TAROM, Transelectrica,
Transgaz, and Romgaz; (ii) Preparation of action plans for the remaining SOEs of the central government; (iii) Design mechanisms to facilitate restructuring and securitizing SOE arrears. 1/
July 15, 2011 Partially Met
2. Completion of a comprehensive review of the existing investment portfolio, which will prioritize and evaluate existing projects to focus on those where funding can be fully secured, examine the viability of old projects, with low priority and unviable ones discontinued, and production of a final report and an action plan. 2/
Sept. 30, 2011 Partially Met
3. Prepare comprehensive amendments to the health care legislation to address the persistent budgetary shortfalls and to ensure high quality health care services. 3/
Dec. 31, 2011 Partially Met
4. Design measures to reduce registration of small VAT payers by 20 percent by end-September 2012(compared to end-September 2011).
Dec. 31, 2011 Met
5. Appoint transaction advisor for group 2 and legal advisor for group 3 as specified in MEFP. 4/ Feb. 15, 2012 Partially Met
New Structural Benchmarks1. An increase of 5 percent in the electricity price for both residential and nonresidential consumers. June 30, 2012
Table 2. Romania: Performance for Fourth Review
Prior Action5 days before the Board date
4/ Legal advisors were appointed for Electrica Serv and Nuclearelectrica. The deadline for hiring legal or transaction advisors for the other companies in Group 2 and Group 3 was rescheduled.
1/ Legal advisors were appointed for TAROM, Transelectrica, Transgaz, and Romgaz and mechanisms to facilitate restructuring of SOE arrears were implemented. In addition, most action plans have been received. The authorities committed to complete the action plan process by mid-February and to hire a legal advisor for CFR Marfa by end-April 2012.
2/ The investment portfolio is being revised to include local government projects co-financed by the state budget.
3/ The health care legislation is being revised to better address lack of financial controls and adequacy of funding needs in the health sector. The provisions on private insurance for basic medical benefits are also being reassessed.
ROMANIA
38 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
2007 2008 2009 2010 20123rd Rev. Est. Proj.
Output and pricesReal GDP 6.3 7.3 -6.6 -1.6 2.0 2.5 1.5Contributions to GDP growth
Domestic demand 15.9 8.3 -13.5 -1.6 2.0 2.9 1.7Net exports -9.6 -1.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3
Consumer price index (CPI, average) 4.8 7.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.8 2.7Consumer price index (CPI, end of period) 6.7 6.4 4.9 8.0 3.6 3.1 3.3Producer price index (end of period) 7.6 15.3 1.9 6.3 … 8.9 …Unemployment rate (average) 6.4 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2Nominal wages 22.7 23.7 8.5 2.4 5.3 4.9 3.2
Saving and InvestmentGross domestic investment 31.0 31.3 25.4 24.8 27.3 27.0 28.0Gross national savings 17.6 19.7 21.2 20.4 23.3 22.7 23.6
General government financesRevenue 32.3 32.2 31.2 32.3 33.0 32.1 32.9Expenditure 35.4 37.0 38.5 38.7 37.3 36.3 34.8Fiscal balance -3.1 -4.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 -4.2 -1.9
External financing 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.6 1.9Domestic financing 3.1 4.4 4.6 3.6 1.3 1.6 0.0 Privatization proceeds 1/ 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fiscal balance (including PNDI) -3.1 -4.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 -4.2 -2.1Structural fiscal balance 2/ -5.8 -8.5 -7.2 -5.1 -2.8 -2.9 -0.2Gross public debt (direct debt only) 10.4 11.8 21.7 28.2 31.6 30.9 32.3Gross public debt (including guarantees) 12.7 13.6 23.8 31.2 34.5 33.7 35.0
Money and creditBroad money (M3) 33.7 17.5 9.0 6.9 8.3 6.6 6.6Credit to private sector 60.4 33.7 0.9 4.7 4.8 6.6 3.2
Interest rates, eopEuribor, six-months 4.8 3.5 4.5 1.2 … 1.6 …NBR policy rate 7.5 10.3 8.0 6.3 … 6.0 …NBR lending rate (Lombard) 12.0 14.3 12.0 10.3 … 10.0 …Interbank offer rate (1 week) 7.1 12.7 10.7 3.6 … 6.0 …
Balance of paymentsCurrent account balance -13.4 -11.6 -4.2 -4.4 -4.0 -4.3 -4.4
Merchandise trade balance -14.3 -13.7 -5.8 -6.1 -3.5 -5.6 -5.9Capital and financial account balance 17.6 12.7 -2.5 1.0 2.3 1.2 4.6
Foreign direct investment balance 5.7 6.7 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.9International investment position -43.5 -49.4 -62.3 -62.8 -75.5 -61.6 -65.2
Gross official reserves 21.8 20.2 26.1 29.0 28.9 27.9 27.6Gross external debt 47.1 51.8 68.6 74.5 77.5 73.8 73.7
Exchange ratesLei per euro (end of period) 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.3 … 4.3 …Lei per euro (average) 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.2 … 4.2 …Real effective exchange rate
CPI based (percentage change) 8.4 -5.0 -7.5 1.9 … 2.8 …GDP deflator based (percentage change) 17.3 1.5 -8.8 1.9 … 2.6 …
Memorandum Items:Nominal GDP (in bn RON) 416.0 514.7 501.1 522.6 552.7 565.6 593.6
Social and Other Indicators GDP per capita (current US$, 2009): $7,500; GDP per capita, PPP (current international $, 2009): $14,198 Poverty rate: 5.7% (2008)
1/ Excludes receipts from planned privatizations under the program.
Table 3. Romania: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2007–12
2011
(Annual percentage change)
(In percent of GDP)
(Annual percentage change)
(In percent)
(In percent of GDP)
2/ Actual fiscal balance adjusted for the automatic effects of the business cycle.
Sources: Romanian authorities; Fund staff estimates and projections; and World Development Indicators database.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 39
2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20173rd Rev. Est. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
GDP and prices (annual percent change)Real GDP 7.3 -6.6 -1.6 2.0 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0Real domestic demand 7.3 -12.0 -1.5 1.9 2.8 1.7 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.2
Consumption 8.7 -7.4 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.4Investment 15.6 -28.1 -2.1 0.2 2.6 6.1 6.1 4.5 3.9 4.2 4.4Exports 8.3 -6.4 14.0 12.8 11.7 5.2 7.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2Imports 7.9 -20.5 11.9 11.2 11.2 5.3 7.3 7.6 8.3 8.3 8.4
Consumer price index (CPI, average) 7.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0Consumer price index (CPI, end of period) 6.4 4.9 8.0 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Saving and investment (in percent of GDP)Gross national saving 19.7 21.2 20.4 23.3 22.7 23.6 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.7 26.0
Government 1.5 -2.0 0.8 2.9 3.4 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9Private 18.2 23.2 19.6 20.4 19.4 18.8 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.1
Gross domestic investment 31.3 25.4 24.8 27.3 27.0 28.0 29.4 30.0 30.5 30.8 31.1Government 6.3 5.2 7.3 7.3 7.6 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.8Private 25.0 20.1 17.6 20.0 19.4 21.3 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.2 23.3
General government (in percent of GDP)Revenue 32.2 31.2 32.3 33.0 32.1 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4
Tax revenue 27.9 27.2 26.5 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2Non-Tax revenue 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2Grants 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Expenditure 37.0 38.5 38.7 37.3 36.3 34.8 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.3Fiscal balance -4.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 -4.2 -1.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9Structural fiscal balance 1/ -8.5 -7.2 -5.1 -2.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0Gross public debt (direct debt only) 11.8 21.7 28.2 31.6 30.9 32.3 31.1 29.8 28.4 27.1 25.9Gross public debt (including guarantees) 13.6 23.8 31.2 34.5 33.7 35.0 33.5 32.1 30.6 29.1 27.7
Monetary aggregates (annual percent change)Broad money (M3) 17.5 9.0 6.9 8.3 6.6 6.6 9.0 10.3 11.3 11.5 11.7Credit to private sector 33.7 0.9 4.7 4.8 6.6 3.2 4.5 5.0 6.9 8.6 10.0
Balance of payments (in percent of GDP)Current account -11.6 -4.2 -4.4 -4.0 -4.3 -4.4 -4.9 -5.1 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0
Trade balance -13.7 -5.8 -6.1 -3.5 -5.6 -5.9 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 -5.9 -5.8Services balance 0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1Income balance -2.7 -1.6 -1.5 -2.4 -1.7 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0Transfers balance 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8
Capital and financial account balance 12.7 -2.5 1.0 2.3 1.2 4.6 8.2 7.1 4.7 5.5 5.0Foreign direct investment, balance 6.7 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Memorandum items:Gross international reserves (in billions of euros) 28.3 30.9 36.0 37.8 37.3 37.5 37.4 35.8 33.7 34.6 34.4Gross international reserves (in months of next year's imports) 7.8 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.5International investment position (in percent of GDP) -49.4 -62.3 -62.8 -75.5 -61.6 -65.2 -67.8 -66.9 -62.7 -58.9 -55.4Real effective exchange rate, CPI based -5.0 -7.5 1.9 2.6 2.6 -4.2 2.2 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.0External debt (in percent of GDP) 51.8 68.6 74.5 77.5 73.8 73.7 71.8 67.5 63.4 61.4 58.9Short-term external debt (in percent of GDP) 14.7 13.0 15.7 16.1 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.3 15.7 15.1 14.6Terms of trade (merchandise, percent change) 3.1 1.2 2.6 1.5 5.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3Nominal GDP (in millions of lei) 514,700 501,139 522,561 552,703 565,620 593,623 635,355 686,275 742,529 804,622 873,679Nominal GDP (in millions of Euros) 139,666 118,298 124,182 130,918 133,523 135,647 145,206 159,361 174,981 192,110 207,646Output Gap 10.0 -0.3 -3.6 -4.2 -3.6 -4.7 -4.6 -4.0 -3.4 -3.0 -2.5
Table 4. Romania Macroeconomic Framework, Current Policies, 2008–17
2011
Sources: Romanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.1/ Actual fiscal balance adjusted for the automatic effects of the business cycle
ROMANIA
40 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Act Act Prog Act Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Current account balance -4.9 -5.5 -5.2 -5.7 -6.0 -7.2 -8.1 -8.8 -9.7 -10.6Merchandise trade balance -6.9 -7.6 -4.6 -7.5 -8.0 -8.7 -9.5 -10.5 -11.3 -12.3
Exports (f.o.b.) 29.1 37.4 44.0 45.0 48.2 52.4 57.0 62.4 68.3 74.8Imports (f.o.b.) 36.0 45.0 48.6 52.5 56.3 61.1 66.5 72.9 79.6 87.1
Services balance -0.3 0.4 -0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Exports of non-factor services 7.1 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.4 9.1 10.0 10.9 11.9Imports of non-factor services 7.4 6.2 8.0 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.8
Income balance -1.9 -1.9 -3.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.6 -3.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.2Receipts 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2Payments 3.1 2.8 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4
Current transfer balance 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.8
Capital and financial account balance -2.9 1.2 3.0 1.6 6.2 12.0 11.3 8.2 10.6 10.4Capital account balance 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Foreign direct investment balance 3.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0Portfolio investment balance 0.5 0.7 3.3 0.5 1.8 3.7 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0Other investment balance -7.6 -1.9 -3.0 -0.9 1.2 4.9 5.1 4.3 6.4 5.9
General government -0.5 0.3 -1.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.5 0.0 -1.2 Domestic banks -5.5 0.6 -0.9 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Other private sector -1.6 -2.7 -0.3 -0.9 0.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.8
Errors and omissions -1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Multilateral financing 2.1 3.7 3.2 3.5 ... ... ... ... ... ...European Commission 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 ... ... ... ... ... ...World Bank 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 ... ... ... ... ... ...EIB/EBRD/IFC 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 ... ... ... ... ... ...
Overall balance -6.7 -0.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 4.8 3.2 -0.6 0.9 -0.2
Financing 6.7 0.8 -0.9 0.0 -1.8 -4.8 -3.2 0.6 -0.9 0.2Gross international reserves (increase: -) -1.1 -3.5 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 0.1 1.7 2.1 -0.9 0.2Use of Fund credit, net 6.8 4.3 0.9 0.9 -1.6 -4.8 -4.9 -1.5 0.0 0.0
Purchases 1/ 6.8 4.3 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Repurchases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -4.8 -4.9 -1.5 0.0 0.0
Other liabilities, net 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Memorandum items:Current account balance -4.2 -4.4 -4.0 -4.3 -4.4 -4.9 -5.1 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0Foreign direct investment balance 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9Merchandise trade balance -5.8 -6.1 -3.5 -5.6 -5.9 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 -5.9 -5.8
Exports 24.6 30.1 33.6 33.7 35.5 36.1 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.4Imports 30.4 36.2 37.1 39.3 41.5 42.1 41.7 41.7 41.4 41.3
Gross external financing requirement 29.5 25.9 27.3 28.1 31.0 33.5 30.9 28.9 25.9 25.2
Terms of trade (merchandise) 1.2 2.5 1.5 5.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3Export volume -6.4 14.0 12.8 11.7 5.2 7.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2Import volume -20.5 11.9 11.2 11.2 5.3 7.3 7.6 8.3 8.3 8.4Export prices 4.7 6.1 5.0 8.5 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0Import prices 3.3 3.5 1.7 5.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.0
Gross international reserves 2/ 30.9 36.0 37.8 37.3 37.5 37.4 35.8 33.7 34.6 34.4GDP 118.3 124.2 130.9 133.5 135.6 145.2 159.4 175.0 192.2 211.1
Sources: Romanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.1/ Includes IMF disbursement to the Treasury of €0.9 billion in 2009 and €1.2 billion in 2010.2/ Operational definition. Reflects the allocation of SDR 908.8 million that was made avaialable in two tranches in August and September 2009.
(In billions of euros)
Table 5. Romania: Balance of Payments, 2009–17(In billions of euros, unless otherwise indicated)
2011
(In percent of GDP)
(Annual percentage change)
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 41
2012 TotalYear Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2011-12Act Act Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj. Proj.
I. Total financing requirements 38.2 38.9 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.4 36.2 75.1I.A. Current account deficit 5.5 5.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 11.7I.B. Short-term debt 21.0 22.1 6.1 5.5 6.0 5.1 22.7 44.8
Public sector 4.6 5.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 3.8 9.7Banks 11.2 12.1 3.6 2.9 3.3 3.2 13.1 25.1Corporates 5.2 4.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 5.8 10.0
I.C. Maturing medium- and long-term debt 11.3 10.9 1.7 2.5 1.9 3.0 9.1 20.0Public sector 1.7 1.8 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 3.7Banks 3.2 3.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.2 5.8Corporates 6.4 5.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 2.0 5.0 10.6
I.D. Other net capital outflows 1/ 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -1.6 -1.4
II. Total financing sources 33.9 35.1 8.9 9.6 9.1 8.9 36.4 71.5II.A. Foreign direct investment, net 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6 4.5II.B. Capital account inflows 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9II.C. Short-term debt 23.2 24.7 5.7 5.9 6.5 5.2 23.3 48.0
Public sector 5.4 6.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 3.8 10.1Banks 12.5 12.5 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.2 13.3 25.9Corporates 5.3 5.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 6.1 12.0
II.D. Medium- and long-term debt 8.2 8.3 2.4 2.9 1.7 2.9 9.9 18.1Public sector 2.3 2.9 1.4 1.6 0.1 0.3 3.3 6.2Banks 2.3 3.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.0 5.0Corporates 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 2.0 4.6 6.9
Errors and Omissions -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
III. Increase in gross reserves 3.5 0.9 0.4 1.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.2 1.1
IV. Financing Gap 8.0 4.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 4.4
V. Program financing 8.0 4.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 4.4IMF 2/ 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 -0.7
Purchases 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9Repurchases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 -1.6
Others 3.7 3.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 5.1European Commission 2.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4World Bank 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7EIB/EBRD/IFC 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 3.0
Memorandum items:Rollover rates for amortizing debt ST (in percent)
Public sector 118 108 100 100 100 100 100 105Banks 112 104 90 110 110 100 102 103Corporates 101 141 95 105 115 105 105 120
Rollover rates for amortizing debt MLT (in percent)Public sector 135 160 611 163 28 66 175 167Banks 71 85 70 90 100 100 91 87Corporates 58 42 70 90 100 100 92 66
Gross international reserves 3/ 36.0 37.3 … … … … 37.5 …Coverage of gross international reserves
- Months of imports of GFNS (next year) 7.3 7.0 … … … … 6.5 …- Short-term external debt (in percent) 118.6 103.2 … … … … 90.5 …
Sources: Romanian authorities and IMF staff estimates.1/ Includes includes portfolio equity, financial derivatives and other investments, assets position.2/ Last disbursement of the previous program is treated as precautionary3/ Operational Definition
Table 6. Romania: Gross Financing Requirements, 2010-12(In billions of euros, unless otherwise indicated)
2010 2011
ROMANIA
42 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Act. 6/ Proj. 7/
Revenue 32.3 32.2 31.2 32.3 32.1 32.9 Taxes 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.5 27.5 27.2 Corporate income tax 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 Personal income tax 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 VAT 7.5 7.9 6.8 7.5 8.5 8.5 Excises 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 Customs duties 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Social security contributions 9.5 9.5 9.5 8.7 9.0 8.6 Other taxes 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Nontax revenue 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.2 3.2 Capital revenue 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Grants, including EU disbursements 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.2 2.3
Expenditure 35.4 37.0 38.5 38.7 36.3 34.8 Current expenditure 30.7 32.5 34.6 35.1 32.3 31.2 Compensation of employees 8.1 8.9 9.3 8.2 6.8 6.7 Goods and services 6.1 6.2 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 Interest 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 Subsidies 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 Transfers 14.1 15.1 16.6 18.2 16.8 16.2 Pensions 5.4 6.4 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.1 Other social transfers 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.1 3.6 3.3 Other transfers 1/ 4.0 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.3 4.4 Other spending 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 Proj. with ext. credits 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 Capital expenditure 2/ 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.1 3.5 Reserve fund 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net lending and expense refunds 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Fiscal balance -3.1 -4.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.2 -1.9 Primary balance -2.4 -4.1 -6.1 -5.0 -2.6 -0.2
Fiscal balance including PNDI -7.3 -6.4 -4.2 -2.1
Financing 3.1 4.8 7.3 6.4 4.2 1.9 External borrowing (net) 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.9 Domestic borrowing (net) 2.3 2.9 5.8 4.0 2.3 0.9 Use of deposits 0.7 1.4 -1.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 Privatization proceeds 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Financial liabilities Gross public debt 3/ 12.7 13.6 23.8 31.2 33.7 35.0 Gross public debt excl. guarantees 10.4 11.8 21.7 28.2 30.9 32.3 External 7.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 14.6 15.8 Domestic 3.4 4.9 11.7 15.2 16.4 16.5
Memorandum items:Total capital spending (excluding PNDI) … 6.3 5.2 7.3 7.6 6.7Fiscal balance (ESA95 basis) 6/ -2.9 -5.7 -9.0 -6.8 -4.6 ...Gross public debt (ESA95 basis) 6/ 12.8 13.4 23.6 30.5 31.9 …Output gap 4/ 7.6 10.0 -0.3 -3.6 -3.6 -4.7Conventional structural fiscal balance -5.8 -8.5 -7.2 -5.1 -2.9 -0.2Gross public debt (authorities definition) 5/ 19.8 21.3 29.4 37.2 … …Nominal GDP (in billions of RON) 416.0 514.7 501.1 522.6 565.6 593.6
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Eurostat; and Fund staff projections.1/ Includes EU-financed capital projects.2/ Does not include all capital spending.3/ Total consolidated public debt, including government debt, local government debt, and guarantees. 4/ Percentage deviation of actual from potential GDP.5/ Includes guarantees and intra-governmental debt.
7/ Includes arrears reduction plans in VAT (1562m), and other transfers (1562m).
Table 7. Romania: General Government Operations, 2007–12(In percent of GDP)
6/ Includes arrears reduction plans in VAT (1131m), SSC (1089m), CIT (82m), excises (74m), transfers (804m), capex (738m), subsidies (729m), goods and services (127m). Preliminary for fiscal balance and gross public debt on ESA95 basis.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 43
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 20123rd Rev. 5/ Act 6/ 3rd Rev. 7/ Proj 7/
Revenue 134,173 165,549 156,373 168,635 182,360 181,567 195,197 195,351 Taxes 116,066 143,855 136,350 138,667 154,259 155,710 161,384 161,508 Corporate income tax 11,917 14,426 13,466 10,969 11,077 11,030 11,729 11,590 Personal income tax 14,402 18,523 18,551 17,957 18,860 19,461 19,809 20,077 VAT 31,243 40,874 34,322 39,246 47,689 47,917 49,868 50,664 Excises 12,552 13,646 15,646 17,312 19,672 19,105 21,183 20,378 Customs duties 856 962 656 574 637 674 686 725 Social security contributions 39,443 49,008 47,829 45,704 49,532 50,637 50,975 51,105 Other taxes 5,653 6,416 5,879 6,905 6,790 6,885 7,134 6,968 Nontax revenue 13,991 15,892 14,487 19,796 18,260 18,217 18,988 18,786
Interest Revenue 780 545 864 595 18,260 544 18,988 570 Capital revenue 963 1,076 546 685 701 766 1,486 1,554 Grants 3,154 4,702 5,057 9,494 9,141 6,874 13,338 13,504 o/w EU pre-accession funds ... ... 2,959 4,054 1,331 765 818 972 Financial operations and other 0 25 -67 -6 0 0 0 0
Expenditure 147,141 190,407 192,782 202,256 206,314 205,404 206,407 206,561 Current expenditure 127,513 167,095 173,445 183,243 185,668 182,836 183,833 185,414 Compensation of employees 33,696 45,608 46,676 42,839 40,317 38,496 39,800 39,680 Goods and services 25,187 32,012 28,028 29,541 30,346 31,770 31,486 32,118 Interest 3,096 3,776 6,063 7,275 9,391 8,883 10,228 10,228 Subsidies 6,875 7,899 7,215 6,735 6,660 6,407 5,463 5,465 Transfers 58,660 77,800 83,407 95,060 96,702 95,172 94,807 96,017 Pensions 22,664 33,187 39,851 42,107 47,769 47,469 47,873 47,879 Other social transfers 16,186 20,973 24,101 26,505 20,422 20,539 19,603 19,698 Other transfers 1/ 16,769 17,646 16,931 23,514 25,905 24,049 25,236 26,179 Other spending 3,041 5,993 2,523 2,933 2,606 3,115 2,096 2,261 Proj. with ext. credits 0 0 2,056 1,794 2,252 2,108 2,050 1,907 Capital expenditure 2/ 19,607 23,779 21,828 19,441 20,543 23,056 22,342 20,920 Reserve fund 0 0 0 0 51 0 232 227 Net lending and expense refunds 21 -467 -2,490 -428 52 -488 0 0
Fiscal balance -12,968 -24,858 -36,409 -33,621 -23,953 -23,837 -11,210 -11,210 Primary balance -9,872 -21,082 -30,346 -26,346 -14,562 -14,954 -982 -982
Fiscal balance including PNDI -12,968 -24,858 -36,409 -33,621 -23,953 -23,837 -12,210 -12,210
Financing 12,968 24,858 36,409 33,621 23,953 23,837 11,210 11,210 External borrowing (net) 151 2,282 13,144 14,807 16,895 14,629 11,931 11,423 Domestic borrowing (net) 9,448 14,889 29,129 20,841 10,616 13,022 5,240 5,535 Use of deposits 2,733 7,316 -6,129 -2,161 -3,958 -3,827 -6,360 -5,751 Privatization proceeds 636 371 291 289 400 0 400 5
Financial liabilities Gross public debt 3/ 52,917 70,200 119,195 163,023 190,533 190,674 207,704 207,631 Gross public debt excl. guarantees 43,339 60,883 108,527 147,262 174,858 174,913 192,028 191,870 External 29,316 35,775 49,993 67,717 84,580 82,346 96,511 93,769 Domestic 14,024 25,108 58,535 79,545 90,278 92,567 95,518 98,101
Memorandum item:Gross public debt (authorities definition) 4/ 82,324 109,795 147,329 194,459
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Eurostat; and Fund staff projections.1/ Includes EU-financed capital projects.2/ Does not include all capital spending.
4/ Includes guarantees and intra-governmental debt.
7/ Includes arrears reduction plans in VAT (1562m) and transfers (1562m).
Table 7. Romania: General Government Operations, 2007–12 (concluded)(In millions of RON)
3/ Total consolidated public debt, including government debt, local government debt, and guarantees.
5/ Includes arrears reduction plans in VAT (1709m), nontax revenues (726m), transfers (1324m), subsidies (823m), capex (238m). 6/ Includes arrears reduction plans in VAT (1131m), SSC (1089m), CIT (82m), excises (74m), transfers (804m), capex (738m), subsidies (729m), goods and services
ROMANIA
44 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Table 8. Romania: Monetary Survey, 2009–12 (In millions of lei (RON), unless otherwise indicated; end of period)
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
I. Banking System
Net foreign assets 17,684 18,776 15,877 19,900 26,843 27,175 24,320In million euros 4,182 4,382 3,676 4,573 6,139 6,185 5,518
o/w commercial banks -19,708 -21,158 -21,814 -21,433 -21,053 -20,672 -20,292
Net domestic assets 171,946 183,987 200,331 190,104 187,993 197,955 206,073Public sector credit (Net) 26,748 43,393 51,496 53,147 53,798 55,450 58,101Private sector credit 199,887 209,298 223,034 218,655 221,393 231,204 230,121Other -54,688 -68,704 -74,199 -81,699 -87,199 -88,699 -82,149
Broad Money (M3) 189,630 202,763 216,208 210,003 214,836 225,130 230,393Money market instruments 1,617 3,177 4,149 4,564 5,020 6,024 5,186Intermediate money (M2) 188,013 199,586 212,059 205,440 209,816 219,106 225,207
Narrow money (M1) 79,361 81,605 85,835 81,278 85,618 91,064 92,349Currency in circulation 23,968 26,793 30,609 27,599 31,258 32,728 32,931Overnight deposits 55,394 54,812 55,226 53,679 54,359 58,336 59,417
II. National Bank of RomaniaNet foreign assets 101,015 109,433 110,106 113,173 118,900 118,002 113,760
In million euros 23,891 25,540 25,489 26,006 27,192 26,858 25,810Net domestic assets -49,354 -54,330 -48,541 -60,050 -62,941 -58,483 -47,523
Public sector credit, net -13,626 -12,795 -13,564 -13,564 -13,564 -13,564 -16,064Credit to banks, net -23,848 -26,148 -19,529 -21,529 -23,529 -25,529 -21,529Other -11,880 -15,387 -15,448 -24,958 -25,848 -19,390 -9,930
Reserve money 51,662 55,103 61,565 53,123 55,959 59,519 66,237
Broad money (M3) 9.0 6.9 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.6 6.6NFA contribution 2.6 0.6 -1.4 3.8 1.5 0.7 3.9NDA contribution 6.4 6.3 8.1 3.1 5.9 7.0 2.7
Reserve money 2.4 6.7 11.7 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.6NFA contribution -18.4 16.3 1.2 25.8 4.1 -3.3 5.9NDA contribution 20.8 -9.6 10.5 -19.3 2.9 10.3 1.7
Domestic credit, real 5.4 3.2 5.4 9.5 8.6 4.7 1.6Private sector, real -3.8 -3.0 3.4 5.2 1.3 0.6 -0.2Public sector, real 159.5 21.9 9.9 17.8 13.0 20.7 18.7
Broad money (M3), in real terms 3.9 -1.0 3.4 5.0 5.1 3.7 3.1Private deposits, at constant e/r 8.1 5.0 4.9 4.3 5.8 6.6 5.4Private credit, nominal 0.9 4.7 6.6 7.2 3.6 4.4 3.2
Memorandum itemsCPI inflation, eop 4.7 8.0 3.1 1.9 2.3 3.8 3.3Inflation target 2.5 - 4.5 2.5 - 4.5 2.0 - 4.0 2.0 - 4.0 2.0 - 4.0 2.0 - 4.0 2.0 - 4.0Interest rates (percent):
Policy interest rate 8.00 6.25 6.0 … … … …Interbank offer rate, 1 week 10.7 3.6 6.0 … … … …Corporate loans 1/ 15.4 9.4 9.7 … … … …Household time deposits 1/ 9.9 7.6 6.6 … … … …
Share of foreign currency private deposits 38.8 36.1 33.6 … … … …Share of foreign currency private loans 60.1 63.0 63.4 … … … …M2 velocity 2.67 2.62 2.67 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64Money multiplier (M3/reserve money) 3.67 3.68 3.51 3.95 3.84 3.78 3.48
Sources: National Bank of Romania; and Fund staff estimates.1/ Rates for new local currency denominated transactions.
2012 Proj.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 45
2008 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011Dec. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec.
Core indicatorsCapital adequacy
Capital to risk-weighted assets 13.8 14.7 15.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 14.9 14.2 13.4 14.5Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets 11.8 13.4 14.2 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 13.6 12.9 13.9
Asset qualityNonperforming loans (1/) to total gross loans 2.8 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.7 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.2 14.0Nonperforming loans (1/) net of provisions to capital 10.7 11.3 12.6 14.5 16.3 15.7 15.7 16.5 17.8 16.3
Earnings and profitabilityReturn on assets 1.6 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.1Return on equity( 2/) 17.0 2.9 6.0 -1.6 -2.1 -1.7 5.0 0.6 -3.4 -1.4Net interest income to operating income 44.8 44.1 55.7 58.2 58.7 60.6 59.8 63.7 62.3 61.9Noninterest expense to operating income (cost to income) 55.7 63.9 56.5 59.2 58.6 64.9 65.6 67.5 66.1 68.2Personnel expense to operating income 23.4 20.3 20.7 21.6 21.2 21.0 22.8 23.3 22.4 22.1
Liquidity Liquid assets (3/)to total assets 47.1 57.4 58.6 59.1 59.3 60.0 58.8 58.7 60.7 58.6Liquid assets (3/) to short-term liabilities (4/) 230.5 132.0 150.0 146.7 148.7 142.2 151.8 143.5 143.6 138.8Liquid assets (3/) to total attracted and borrowed sources 116.2 79.4 81.2 79.8 82.1 80.9 80.5 80.4 81.6 79.7
Foreign exchange riskNet open position in foreign exchange, in percent of capital 1.6 2.3 1.6 -3.2 1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -3.4 -4.2 -4.8Lending in foreign exchange, in percent of non-gov. credit 57.8 60.1 60.4 62.8 62.5 63.0 62.2 62.9 63.6 63.4Foreign currency liabilities, in percent of total attracted and borrowed source 43.7 42.8 43.6 44.7 44.1 43.5 43.8 43.2 43.6 43.1Deposits in foreign exchange, in percent of non-gov. dom. deposits 34.8 38.8 37 38 37.4 36.0 35.6 34.6 34.0 33.5
Encouraged indicators Deposit-taking institutions
Leverage ratio (5/) 8.1 7.6 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9Personnel expenses to noninterest expenses 41.9 31.8 36.6 36.4 36.1 32.3 34.7 34.5 33.9 32.3Customer deposits to total (non-interbank) loans 81.9 88.7 88.3 85.1 86.0 84.8 84.0 81.6 81.7 84.0
Source: Romanian National Bank.1/ The NPLs represent un-adjusted exposures of loans and related interests overdue for more than 90 days and/or for which legal proceedings were initiated.2/ Return on equity is calculated as Net profit/loss to average own capital. 3/ Liquid assets = balance sheet assets and off balance sheets items with residual maturity of up to 3 months.4/ Short term liabilities =balance sheet liabilities and off balance sheet items with residual maturity of up to 3 months.5/ Tier 1 Capital to average assets.
Table 9. Romania: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2008–11 (In percent)
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46 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Date Millions of SDRs Percent of Quota Conditions
March 25, 2011 60.0 5.82 Approval of arrangementJune 27, 2011 430.0 41.74 First review and end-March 2011 performance criteriaSeptember 29, 2011 430.0 41.74 Second review and end-June 2011 performance criteriaDecember 19, 2011 430.0 41.74 Third review and end-September 2011 performance criteriaMarch 21, 2012 430.0 41.74 Fourth review and end-December 2011 performance criteriaJune 15, 2012 430.0 41.74 Fifth review and end-March 2012 performance criteriaSeptember 15, 2012 430.0 41.74 Sixth review and end-June 2012 performance criteriaDecember 15, 2012 430.0 41.74 Seventh review and end-September 2012 performance criteriaMarch 15, 2013 20.6 2.00 Eighth review and end-December 2012 performance criteria
Total 3090.6 300Source: IMF staff estimates.
Table 10. Romania: Schedule of Reviews and Purchases
Amount of Purchase
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing Fund CreditStock 2/ 9,262 5,210 1,329 96 0 0Obligations 3/ 1,398 4,146 3,924 1,242 97 1
Repurchase 1307 4052 3881 1233 96 0Charges 90 94 43 10 1 1
Prospective Fund Credit under Stand-By ArrangementDisbursement 2,150 21 0 0 0 0Stock 2/ 3,070 3,091 3,091 2,262 719 3Obligations 3/ 30 35 36 863 1,564 722
Repurchase 0 0 0 829 1,543 717Charges 30 35 36 34 22 5
Stock of existing and prospective Fund creditIn millions of SDR 12,332 8,301 4,419 2,358 719 3In percent of quota 1,197 806 429 229 70 0In percent of GDP 10.8 6.8 3.3 1.6 0.5 0In percent of exports of goods and services 26.3 16.3 8.0 3.9 1.1 0In percent of gross reserves 39.2 26.5 14.8 8.4 2.5 0
Obligations to the Fund from existing and prospective Fund arrangementsIn millions of SDR 1,587 4,421 4,069 2,125 1,662 723In percent of quota 154.1 429.2 395.0 206.3 161.3 70.2In percent of GDP 1.4 3.6 3.1 1.5 1.0 0.4In percent of exports of goods and services 3.4 8.7 7.4 3.5 2.5 1.0In percent of gross reserves 5.1 14.1 13.6 7.6 5.8 2.5
Source: IMF staff estimates.1/ Using IMF actual disbursements, SDR interest rate as well as exchange rate of SDR/US$ and US$/€ of January 12, 2012.2/ End of period.3/ Repayment schedule based on repurchase obligations.
Table 11. Romania: Indicators of Fund Credit, 2012–17 1/(In millions of SDR)
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48 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Projections2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Debt-stabilizing
primarybalance 9/
Baseline: Public sector debt 1/ 12.7 13.6 23.8 31.2 33.7 35.0 33.5 32.1 30.6 29.1 27.7 -0.7o/w foreign-currency denominated 9.3 8.6 15.3 20.0 20.3 20.7 19.0 17.7 16.7 15.7 14.8
Change in public sector debt 0.1 0.9 10.1 7.4 2.5 1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) 0.7 3.7 8.0 6.9 2.7 0.3 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4
Primary deficit 2.4 4.1 6.1 5.0 2.6 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8Revenue and grants 32.3 32.2 31.2 32.3 32.1 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4Primary (noninterest) expenditure 34.6 36.3 37.3 37.3 34.7 33.1 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.6
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -1.8 -0.5 1.9 1.8 0.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -1.4 -1.7 1.6 0.4 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
Of which contribution from real interest rate -0.8 -0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4Of which contribution from real GDP growth -0.7 -0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ -0.4 1.2 0.3 1.4 0.8 ... ... ... ... ... ...Other identified debt-creating flows 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Privatization receipts (negative) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) 5/ -0.6 -2.8 2.1 0.5 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/ 39.4 42.4 76.2 96.7 105.0 106.3 101.5 96.8 92.0 87.3 82.8
Gross financing need 6/ 4.4 6.7 18.4 13.9 12.8 11.4 11.3 9.4 7.4 6.1 5.7in billions of U.S. dollars 7.5 13.6 30.2 22.8 23.8 20.6 21.9 19.8 17.0 15.3 15.5
Scenario with key variables at their historical averages 7/ 35.0 34.1 33.4 32.7 32.1 31.6 -2.8Scenario with no policy change (constant primary balance) in 2012-2017 35.0 34.4 33.8 33.2 32.6 32.1 -0.8
Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions Underlying Baseline
Real GDP growth (in percent) 6.3 7.3 -6.6 -1.6 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 8/ 7.1 7.1 8.6 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.3Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, in percen -6.4 -8.1 4.4 0.1 -0.2 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent) 4.5 -13.3 -3.5 -8.4 -4.0 ... ... ... ... ... ...Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 13.5 15.2 4.2 6.0 5.6 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 12.0 12.4 -4.0 -1.5 -4.6 -3.4 0.8 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3Primary deficit 2.4 4.1 6.1 5.0 2.6 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
1/ Coverage: general government gross debt, including guarantees.2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r). 5/ For projections, this line includes exchange rate changes.6/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period. 7/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.8/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.9/ Assumes that key variables (real GDP growth, real interest rate, and other identified debt-creating flows) remain at the level of the last projection year.
Table 12. Romania: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007-17(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 49
Projections2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Debt-stabilizing
non-interest current account 6/
Baseline: External debt 47.1 51.8 68.6 74.5 73.8 73.7 71.8 67.5 63.4 61.4 59.9 -5.2
Change in external debt 4.9 4.8 16.8 5.8 -0.6 -0.1 -2.0 -4.3 -4.0 -2.1 -1.5Identified external debt-creating flows (4+8+9) -1.4 0.4 10.1 -1.2 -2.7 0.1 -1.6 -0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9
Current account deficit, excluding interest payments 12.2 10.1 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9Deficit in balance of goods and services 14.0 13.2 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9
Exports 29.2 30.4 30.6 35.4 39.2 41.2 41.8 41.5 41.3 41.2 41.7Imports 43.2 43.6 36.6 41.2 44.5 47.1 47.8 47.4 47.3 47.0 47.6
Net non-debt creating capital inflows (negative) -5.8 -6.1 -3.4 -2.4 -1.8 -3.2 -4.4 -3.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9Automatic debt dynamics 1/ -7.8 -3.6 11.1 -1.7 -3.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1
Contribution from nominal interest rate 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2Contribution from real GDP growth -2.1 -3.1 4.0 1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -2.1 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -2.3Contribution from price and exchange rate changes 2/ -7.0 -2.0 5.3 -4.3 -3.5 ... ... ... ... ... ...
Residual, incl. change in gross foreign assets (2-3) 3/ 6.4 4.3 6.7 7.0 2.1 -0.3 -0.4 -3.4 -4.7 -2.9 -2.4
External debt-to-exports ratio (in percent) 160.9 170.3 224.5 210.2 188.6 178.8 171.5 162.6 153.4 148.9 143.5
Gross external financing need (in billions of US dollars) 4/ 35.9 46.2 34.9 32.1 37.5 42.1 48.6 49.3 50.6 49.7 52.4in percent of GDP 28.8 33.1 29.5 25.9 28.1 31.0 33.5 30.9 28.9 25.9 25.2
Scenario with key variables at their historical averages 5/ 73.7 71.5 67.6 62.5 59.2 55.7 -9.2
Key Macroeconomic Assumptions Underlying Baseline
Real GDP growth (in percent) 6.3 7.3 -6.6 -1.6 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0GDP deflator in US dollars (change in percent) 19.8 4.4 -9.3 6.7 4.9 0.1 3.9 5.8 5.6 5.6 3.9Nominal external interest rate (in percent) 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1Growth of exports (US dollar terms, in percent) 15.9 16.6 -14.9 21.7 18.9 6.9 8.6 8.8 9.5 9.5 9.4Growth of imports (US dollar terms, in percent) 24.7 13.2 -28.9 18.2 16.0 7.6 8.6 8.8 9.7 9.1 9.4Current account balance, excluding interest payments -12.2 -10.1 -2.4 -2.9 -2.6 -2.6 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7 -3.9Net non-debt creating capital inflows 5.8 6.1 3.4 2.4 1.8 3.2 4.4 3.5 1.9 1.9 1.9
1/ Derived as [r - g - r(1+g) + ea(1+r)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt stock, with r = nominal effective interest rate on external debt; r = change in domestic GDP deflator in US dollar terms, g = real GDP growth rate, e = nominal appreciation (increase in dollar value of domestic currency), and a = share of domestic-currency denominated debt in total external debt.2/ The contribution from price and exchange rate changes is defined as [-r(1+g) + ea(1+r)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt stock. r increases with an appreciating domestic currency (e > 0) and rising inflation (based on GDP deflator). 3/ For projection, line includes the impact of price and exchange rate changes.4/ Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period. 5/ The key variables include real GDP growth; nominal interest rate; dollar deflator growth; and both non-interest current account and non-debt inflows in percent of GDP.6/ Long-run, constant balance that stabilizes the debt ratio assuming that key variables (real GDP growth, nominal interest rate, dollar deflator growth, and non-debt inflows in percent of GDP) remain at their levels of the last projection year.
Table 13. Romania: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007-17(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 1
ROMANIA: LETTER OF INTENT
Bucharest, February 28, 2012
Mme. Christine Lagarde
The Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington, DC, 20431
U.S.A.
Dear Mme. Lagarde:
1. The Romanian authorities reaffirm our commitment to our economic program supported by
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union (EU), and the World Bank (WB). The
track record to date continues to be strong. We have met all performance criteria for the fourth
program review and have advanced on a large and difficult structural agenda. While further progress
is needed in some areas, we are committed to additional actions described in the attached
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP). Our achievements in economic
stabilization and reforms are bearing fruit, as economic growth recovered in 2011 after two years of
decline. The recovery remains vulnerable to difficulties in international financial markets and
economic weakness in the euro area, so continued firm policy implementation and maintenance of
fiscal, monetary, and financial sector buffers are required to safeguard against risks.
2. Our performance on the quantitative targets and the structural reform agenda for the fourth
review has been strong (MEFP Tables 1 and 2).
Quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets. All end-December 2011 quantitative
performance criteria were observed. All indicative targets were also met. Inflation remained
within the inner band of the inflation consultation mechanism.
Structural benchmarks. The benchmark was met on designing measures to deregister a
significant number of small VAT payers to improve collection efficiency. Healthcare reform
legislation was prepared; however, the draft was later withdrawn due to opposition. We are
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2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
preparing alternative proposals, in consultation with the World Bank, and expect to have a
draft prepared by end-June. Finally, we continue to advance on previous benchmarks which
were partially met: the prioritization of the investment portfolio is advancing, the
appointment of legal and transaction advisors for the sale of stakes in SOEs remains a key
objective of the government, and we are continuing the remaining actions for SOE reforms
to complete the benchmark from July 2011 by April 2012.
3. In the attached MEFP, we set out our plans to further advance towards meeting the
objectives laid out in our macroeconomic program. In view of our strong performance under the
program supported by the IMF and the EU, the Government of Romania and the National Bank of
Romania (NBR) request completion of the fourth review. We intend to continue to treat the
arrangement as precautionary.
4. The program will continue to be monitored through quarterly reviews, prior actions,
quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets, and structural benchmarks. We propose a
modification of the March 30, 2012, quantitative performance criteria and the establishment of such
criteria for June 30, 2012, as set out in the attached MEFP, where changes to adjustors on
performance criterion on Net Foreign Assets and general government balance have been made (and
described in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)). As detailed in the MEFP, we also
propose a new structural benchmark and a prior action against which to measure progress under
the program (MEFP Table 2). The TMU explains how program targets are measured.
5. We believe that the policies set forth in the letters of March 10, 2011, June 9, 2011,
September 14, 2011, December 2, 2011, and in this Letter are adequate to achieve the objectives of
our economic program. We stand ready to take additional measures as appropriate to ensure
achievement of its objectives. We will consult with the IMF and European Commission (EC) before
modifying measures contained in this Letter and the attached Memorandum or adopting new
measures that would deviate from the goals of the program, and will provide the IMF and the EC
with the necessary information for program monitoring.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3
6. We authorize the IMF and the EC to publish the Letter of Intent and its attachments, and the
related staff reports. This letter is being copied to Mr. Olli Rehn.
Sincerely,
/s/ /s/
Bogdan Dragoi Mugur Isarescu
Minister of Public Finance Governor of the National Bank of Romania
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4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ROMANIA: MEMORANDUM OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL POLICIESRecent Economic Developments and Outlook
1. Romania’s economic recovery continues, but the outlook has weakened due to deteriorating
conditions elsewhere in the Europe. Indicators suggest 2011 growth was around 2½ percent, higher
than previously anticipated due to an exceptional domestic harvest and strong exports. CPI inflation
fell to 3.1 percent in December, as the harvest put significant downward pressures on food prices.
For 2012, we now expect growth of around 1½–2 percent. The slowdown in Europe will constitute a
major drag on the recovery, but it will be partly offset by increased EU-funds absorption and the
gradual recovery of domestic demand. Continued firm policy implementation is required to
safeguard against downside risks, as there remain significant vulnerabilities to adverse
developments in international financial markets and the euro area. Inflation is projected to stay
within the central bank’s target band in 2012, although upward risks remain. The current account
deficit should stabilize at around 4-4½ percent of GDP, reflecting improved trade performance.
Fiscal Policy
2. For 2011, we achieved a cash deficit of 4.2 percent of GDP, successfully staying within the
target of 4.4 percent of GDP. In the fourth quarter, tax revenues overperformed, reflecting a gradual
recovery in the labor market and enhanced tax collection efforts. We also reduced public
employment by another 20,000 positions, bringing the wage bill below 7 percent of GDP. The
implementation of reforms to pensions, including auditing invalidity pensions and tightening
eligibility conditions, has produced a significant reduction in the number of invalidity pensioners.
The decline in unemployment and streamlining of inefficient social benefits programs have reduced
social assistance spending. In August, we also improved the legislation to provide heating
allowances for the segments of most vulnerable population while eliminating central government
heating subsidies. The overperformance in tax revenues and a tight control on wage bill spending
allowed us to allocate some resources to clear arrears and unpaid bills in SOEs and the health sector.
Other resources were reallocated to capital expenditures and transfers for funding EU-funded
projects.
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5
3. For 2012, we remain committed to bringing the fiscal deficit in ESA terms below 3 percent of
GDP with a budget cash deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP (2.1 percent of GDP including spending under
the National Development and Infrastructure Program (PNDI)). Although the economic outlook has
weakened, the favorable effects of higher tax yields last year should generate sufficient revenues to
keep us on track to reach our target, although sustained expenditure restraint will be required.
Public wages will remain frozen in the public sector as well as pensions. However, if economic
conditions permit we will consider budget modifications later in the year in line with the Fiscal
Responsibility Law. Public employment reductions will continue with the policy of replacing only
1 out of 7 employees; however, we will implement it with more flexibility to relieve bottlenecks from
staff shortages. Savings in the capital budget will be generated by eliminating low-performing
projects and by reduced national co-financing of EU-funded projects, as permitted under EU
regulation 1311/2011 for member states under an IMF/EU program. The implementation of a
clawback tax will help ensure non-accumulation of arrears in the pharmaceutical industry.
Restructuring of public enterprises included in the general government will also be crucial to
achieving the 2012 target. Budgetary transfers have been made contingent on the approval of viable
restructuring plans for SOEs. Means-testing of social benefits programs is also expected to continue
generating savings.
4. Arrears and unpaid bills of the general government (excluding SOEs) have continued to
decline. Arrears now stand below 0.2 percent of GDP (almost entirely in local governments). In SOEs
monitored under the program, arrears have fallen in the fourth quarter of 2011 by some 0.8 percent
of GDP to 2.6 percent of GDP.
In the health sector, arrears in registered bills have now been completely eliminated
unregistered bills revealed during the stocktaking exercise by end-2011 have been fully
recorded in the system and scheduled for payment. The implementation of the clawback tax
should help preclude accumulation of new arrears in the health sector.
At the local government level, arrears decreased in 2011, but the trend could be speeded
up. Improved enforcement and monitoring of the 2010 changes to the local public finance
law (LPGFL) should enable further reductions in the stock of arrears. To this end, line
ministries shall conclude multi-year co-financing contracts for each of the local government
projects in their portfolio by March 2012, within the ceilings approved by the state budget
law and the Fiscal Strategy 2012-14. Simultaneously, line ministries will carry out
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6 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
prioritization of the respective projects and upload relevant data in a capital investment
database.
For SOEs, we are making progress in reducing arrears in monitored companies through
swap operations, payments, and other financial operations. Together, we anticipate that
these measures will permit arrears of companies under monitoring to be reduced by RON 5
to 6 billion (1 percent of GDP) in the second half of 2012.
The next phase in the integration of the accounting reporting system with the Treasury
payment system is underway, including the commitment control and reporting module for
all levels of government. The design of the system will be finalized by end-April 2012 and
the tendering process with the software provider will be launched by mid-May 2012. This
system will help control spending commitments to avoid future arrears.
Over the next two years the period for paying bills submitted to the central government
and social security system will be gradually reduced. EU directive 7 in this area will be
transposed into Romanian law on a timely basis. Towards this end, we will seek to use
revenues from the clawback tax to begin shortening the period for paying bills submitted for
pharmaceuticals by end-June.
To prevent possible future arrears due to unfunded contracts, we will ensure that any
commitments made at the central government level for multiannual capital projects are
fully budgeted in the medium term budgetary framework. Contracting for multiannual
investment projects will be undertaken consistent with these multiannual commitment
allocations.
5. We continue our efforts to prepare and implement comprehensive reforms of the healthcare
system. A draft framework law for the reform presented in January was withdrawn for
reconsideration in light of significant public objections, but we aim to produce a revised draft by
end-June, with public debate between July and September and parliamentary approval slated by
end-October. The reform will aim to address the persistent budgetary shortfalls in the healthcare
system and enhance service quality. Over the medium-term, given that public healthcare spending
in Romania is among the lowest in the EU as a share of GDP, we will ensure adequate financing in
line with the recommendation of the 2008 Presidential Commission on health care policy, while
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 7
factoring in the challenge of population aging into spending needs. The reform will also ensure that
spending commitments remain within the allocated budget. To contain the growth of spending, we
will seek to reduce the scope of the public benefits package through greater reliance on cost-
sharing and private supplementary insurance. We are also exploring options for greater private
sector involvement in health care provision and financing to enhance efficiency and quality of
services, and to raise additional resources.
6. To address health sector financial imbalances, we are committed to implementing key
healthcare measures even before the comprehensive framework legislation is complete:
In light of the problems in the design of the copayment law that was recently approved in
Parliament, we will revise the copayment, basing it on a modest flat rate. We shall approve
the revision by emergency ordinance by mid-April 2012 for implementation shortly
thereafter.
To control expenditures and ensure efficiency gains in the short term, we will prepare, by
mid-April 2012, and implement by end-June, a negative list of health services and drugs,
based on the outcome of the technical assistance offered by the National Institute for Health
and Clinical Excellence, that will include (i) revised lists of reimbursed drugs and (ii) a
reduction in hospitalization periods and implement the national hospital bed plan. We will
also create the legal framework for the Health Technology Assessment and initiate its
implementation. We will also adjust the National Health Programs in order to match the new
basic package of services.
We will monitor aggregate hospital budgets to ensure that they are consistent with the
expenditure programmed in the general government budget. Moreover, we will take all
necessary actions to avoid new arrears. For hospitals under the responsibility of local
governments, the health care reform legislation will include provisions to facilitate
monitoring by the Ministry of Health.
We will continue implementation of a new healthcare IT system. We have initiated the
auditing of patient registries, which will be completed by end-2012. We will begin
distributing new health cards to all participants by end-April, which will help control fraud
and abuse in the system and better monitor spending commitments. We have signed a
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8 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
contract for the acquisition of a new electronic prescription module for the National Health
Information System, and the system is expected to operational by end-May 2012. These
mechanisms will help ensure that future spending remains within allocations.
7. We will seek to improve the efficiency of the tax system building on recommendations of
IMF technical assistance. Specifically, these measures will include (i) simplification of depreciation
schedules for fixed assets; (ii) simplification of declaration and payment of capital gains taxes;
(iii) simplification of the deduction mechanism for personal income taxation; (iv) development of a
strategy for revision of the property tax base; and (v) development of a plan for adjustment of excise
tax rates to preserve real value.
8. The Government will establish through the Strategic Planning Committee the public policy
priorities, which will be sustained by the medium-term Fiscal Strategy. The government has created
an interministerial group coordinated by the Center of Government to follow up on the
implementation of the action plans for the functional reviews. We are making progress in
implementing the action plans derived from the functional reviews and we have submitted the first
set of progress reports in January. Over the coming months we will take further steps in
implementing priority activities with the support of the IFIs, as agreed in the recently signed MOU
with EIB and the WB. We will report on the progress of these activities in the second set of quarterly
progress reports due by mid-April. The Center of Government will begin to develop indicators that
would help measure the intermediate outcomes derived from progress on the action plans. In
addition, the government will approve an annual work plan of significant legal and policy proposals
requiring approval up to end-2012, based on input from line ministries.
9. Local market conditions for public debt financing have improved so far in 2012, and we took
advantage to increase our debt issuance to further build our buffers. We are also continuing efforts
to build the yield curve by extending the maturity of our domestic bond issuances with the issuance
of a 15-year bond. On the external side, after a postponement due to difficult market conditions in
late 2011, we successfully issued a US$1.5 billion 10-year dollar-denominated bond in January with a
favorable rate, and plan to return to the external market again in 2012, as market conditions permit
in accordance with the debt management strategy. To facilitate improved access to external
financing, we will step up outreach efforts to the international investment community. We will
continue efforts towards consolidating the fiscal buffers (including World Bank DPL-DDO financing)
maintaining our objective of four months of gross financing needs to protect government finances
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 9
against unforeseen external shocks. The interest paid on these financial buffers represent a
necessary cost for insurance against shocks. We have improved our debt management strategy and
will undertake a project with support of the World Bank to strengthen the debt management office.
10. Although we have made some progress in absorbing EU funds, further efforts are still
required to meet our goal of absorbing an additional €6 billion during 2012: €3.5 billion from
Structural and Cohesion Funds and another €2.5 billion from Agricultural, Rural Development and
Fisheries Funds. We are monitoring the implementation of the May 2011 Priority Action Plan and
have submitted two progress reports to the European Commission. In order to significantly boost
absorption this year, we have identified high priority projects, strengthened the capacity of
managing authorities, and taken steps to reduce procedural bottlenecks. In particular, we have
submitted for review an updated priority action plan to the Commission including measures to
increase transparency. We have also adopted a Code of Conduct for the personnel working with EU
funds, and in order to ensure its effective implementation, a monitoring mechanism is currently
under preparation and it shall be adopted by the end of February. To strengthen the capacity of
managing authorities (including for agricultural funds), 100 vacant and 211 newly-added positions
(through redistribution within the approved limit of positions at the level of the main budgetary
institutions) will be filled by June 2012. We have also limited the time to process reimbursement
claims to beneficiaries to 45 working days across all managing authorities. To enhance the technical
expertise of managing authorities, we have already signed MOUs with the EIB and the WB for
providing technical assistance, in accordance with the rules applicable to technical assistance
projects, and a new MOU will be signed with the EBRD by end-March. We will ensure sufficient cash
allocations for funding of investment projects financed by the EU, such that no arrears are
accumulated.
11. We are making progress in compiling an investment portfolio of all government projects to
ensure proper monitoring and prioritization of projects. This portfolio will be used to evaluate
projects to focus on those where funding can be fully secured within a medium-term horizon
(e.g., 3–5 years), and to discontinue low priority and non-performing projects that cannot be fully
financed within this horizon. We have identified 14 projects, representing more than 10 percent of
the total project value, which will be discontinued. We will further improve the investment portfolio
database to include coverage to state budget cofinanced projects at the local government level and
strengthen monitoring of the PNDI projects by the capital monitoring unit of the Ministry of Public
ROMANIA
10 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Finance (MOPF) (end-March, 2012). The Ministry of Regional Development and Tourism (MRDT) and
the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MEF) are committed to ensure that execution spending
under the PNDI does not exceed RON 1.0 billion in 2012 (RON 820 million for MRDT and RON
180 million for MEF) and RON 1.0 billion in 2013. In addition, the authorities overseeing public
private partnerships (PPPs) commit to joint reporting by mid-April 2012 on the functioning of their
working arrangements. The medium term fiscal strategy underpinning the convergence program to
be submitted to the EU will specify the yearly amounts allocated for spending under the PNDI, and
the total authorization for contracts under the PNDI will be adjusted accordingly.
12. Improving tax administration and fighting tax evasion are crucial elements of our strategy to
increase revenue. We are making progress on a comprehensive reform of ANAF. Among the key
developments are the following:
We have revised provisions of the Fiscal Code to facilitate, under certain conditions, the
cancellation of registration for VAT purposes for firms. We are implementing our plan to
reduce the number of taxpayers registered for VAT purposes by 20 percent between
September 2011 and 2012 using administrative measures.
With regard to High Net Wealth Individuals (HNWI), the tax compliance strategy is being
strengthened. Based on the risk analysis procedure adopted in September 2011, individual
taxpayers will be selected for tax verification. Towards this end, we have accelerated data
analysis and are seeking access to new databases in order to start tax verifications of
individuals by mid-2012. We are seeking financing for acquiring an IT tool to be used in risk
analysis and to cover training costs on indirect audit methods.
We passed the government decision on ANAF restructuring and closed 141 regional
offices to reduce collection costs and reduced staff by 8 percent since end 2010. We aim to
increase the capacity and efficiency of the administration further, including through an IMF
FAD TA and World Bank support. Furthermore, we will prepare and have approved (by end-
2012) a multiannual project with the World Bank for modernizing tax administration. We will
approve by government memorandum an action plan containing the main measures and
deadlines, which will undergird the modernization of tax administration.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 11
We have decreased the number of large taxpayers under the supervision of the large
taxpayer directorate to 2000 beginning in 2012.
We have adopted a compliance risk strategy in accordance with best practices in
September 2011. We established a department in charge of risk assessment, which is now
operating. We will implement further measures in order to prevent any difficulties, which
could appear when the reverse charge derogation for cereals will expire.
We are planning expansion of e-filing and further simplification of tax forms and the
number of payments required with a view to providing a one-stop shop for tax declaration
and payments. In December, 87 percent of all tax returns filed to ANAF were using the new
e-filing facilities, which have been extended to all taxpayer categories and for the main
administrated tax liabilities.
By July 2012 we will finalize the takeover of social contribution collections from natural
persons, who are required to be insured.
Financial Sector
13. Provisioning for impaired assets, as well as developments in the euro area, continued to
weigh upon the Romanian banking sector during the fourth quarter. The sector as a whole recorded
a loss equivalent to 1.4 percent of average equity over the year. The ratio of non-performing loans
to total loans ended the fourth quarter at 14.1 percent, marginally lower by 0.1 percentage points
than the previous quarter, mainly due to a rise in lending to the corporate sector. Total provisions at
end-December were sufficient to cover 99.5 percent of non-performing loans. Supported by new
capital injections of RON 1.6 billion, the banking system remained well-capitalized with an average
capital adequacy ratio of 14.5 percent at end-December.
14. To help mitigate the rise in impaired loans and improve the efficiency of bank balance
sheets, we will by end-June ensure that the tax treatment of bank receivables sold to Romanian
firms is neutral. In addition, in allowing banks flexibility to extend loan restructurings, the NBR will
closely monitor bank practices to ensure that the loan-loss provisioning and the assessment of risk
credit of restructured loans continue to remain prudent and in line with good international practices.
The authorities will also undergo an assessment by the World Bank of the arrangements for
insolvency and creditor rights in spring 2012. Amendments were adopted in January 2012 to the
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12 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
bank resolution legislation to introduce bridge bank and other stabilization powers for dealing with
failing banks, as well as to strengthen arrangements to augment quickly the resources of the
Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF). In addition, the authorities have taken steps to strengthen
institutional arrangements, and coordination, between financial safety net participants. The DGF has
joined the National Committee for Financial Stability (NCFS), and a joint working group overseen by
the NBR’s banking supervision department has been established between the NBR and the DGF. An
MOU will be signed by the NBR and the DGF by end-February, which will ensure that the DGF is
given sufficient early warning and information on potential problem institutions to enable it to
prepare to meet its obligations effectively. Going forward, the NBR along with the DGF will finalize
the intra- and inter-agency procedures for deploying the bank resolution powers, including bridge
bank and purchase and assumption powers. These will build upon experience available from other
EU countries, which have recently adopted these powers, and will continue to be reviewed and be
revised in light of experience, including lessons from the crisis simulation exercise to be undertaken
in spring 2012. The NBR, DGF, and MOPF will at the highest levels review and approve the
operational preparedness and arrangements by end-April 2012. The law amending the Law
503/2004 on the bankruptcy of insurance undertakings will be enacted by end-April 2012. We will
continue to consult with the IMF and EC staff before introducing or amending other aspects of the
regulatory framework and avoid adopting legislative initiatives, such as the current draft of the
personal insolvency law or proposals for the debt collecting law, which could undermine debtor
discipline.
Monetary Policy
15. Headline inflation fell to 3.1 percent in December, closing within the central bank’s inflation
target band for the second year since adopting the inflation targeting regime in 2005. The decline of
inflation was mainly driven by food price deflation owing to an exceptional harvest, the
disappearance of the first round effect of the VAT hike, in addition to a decline in core inflation.
For 2012, given the weak domestic demand and muted pressures on global food and energy prices,
inflation is likely to stay within the Central Bank’s target band of 3+1 percent. Amid the abating
inflationary pressures, we have lowered the policy rate by 75 basis points in three steps since
November. Monetary conditions remain appropriate. The impact of the rate cuts on the exchange
rate and capital flows has so far been limited. However, upside risks remain, including additional
adjustment of administered prices, a possible rebound of domestic food prices, and exchange rate
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 13
depreciation pressures. The ongoing instability in international financial markets and the attendant
risks of excessive exchange rate volatility and reduced capital flows, together with inflation risks,
mean that a continued prudent monetary policy stance is required supported by a consistent
macroeconomic policy mix. We will maintain banks’ reserve requirements ratios unchanged in the
coming months and will act judiciously on the monetary policy rate. We will also continue regular
repo operations as needed to ensure adequate liquidity in the banking system.
Structural Reforms
Regulatory and Strategic Reforms in Transport and Energy
16. We are making progress on our plans for major reforms in the transport and energy sectors
to enhance economic growth in Romania. In the transport sector, we are developing a new general
transport strategy and master plan for Romania, which will balance increasing demand and available
fiscal means, ensure complementarities between the different transport modes, and define priorities
for medium- and long-term investment. Expenditure cuts and arrears clearance schemes have
improved the financial position of SOEs in the transport sector. We will continue to seek additional
measures to raise revenues and reduce costs (including through the application of standard costs).
We are finalizing plans for a government-guaranteed loan or budgetary resources to clear CFR rail
infrastructure arrears to energy providers by end-June 2012 and thereby realize significant savings
through the cancellation of penalties. These efforts will be complemented by the development by
end-March 2012 of ways to improve revenue generation and management of the real estate of the
various transport sector SOEs, possibly through the establishment of a special real estate company.
In addition, we will immediately initiate steps to reconstitute the boards of directors and hire private
management in SOEs as required by the Corporate Governance Law of November 2011. Finally, we
have closed 1,000 kilometers of underutilized rail line bringing the total network under management
of CFR closer to our goal of 15,500 line kilometers.
17. For the energy sector, we plan to enhance the pricing and regulatory framework by
undertaking the following steps:1
1 If EU infringement procedures require faster action, we will comply with their requirements.
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14 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
We have drafted legislation to transpose the EU 3rd Energy Package into Romanian
legislation. The draft provides for an appropriate unbundling regime and the definition of
vulnerable consumers. Before approval we will consult with the European Commission staff
and agree with the World Bank and IMF on amendments to ensure full financial and
operational independence of the energy regulator (ANRE). Though somewhat delayed
compared to our original plan, we will approve the legislation on electricity by emergency
ordinance by end-March 2012 and submit it to Parliament for approval. For gas, the
legislation will be prepared by end-April 2012.
We remain committed to achieving full functioning of energy markets to ensure proper
incentives for energy investments and improvements in energy efficiency crucial for future
economic growth. We will now start implementing the earlier agreed phasing out of
regulated prices in electricity, in full compliance with EU regulation. On February 22, 2012,
we sent to the European Commission, World Bank, and the IMF the English translation of the
electricity roadmap including all relevant specifications, particularly measures to protect
vulnerable consumers and ensure competition. As soon as fully agreed with the IFIs, we will
approve the roadmap for electricity by government memorandum (prior action) and include
it in the draft law mentioned above.
In the electricity sector, the process will begin with an adjustment of 5 percent in the
regulated prices to non-residential and residential tariff customers later in 2012. ANRE will
then progressively increase the share of electricity sourced from the deregulated market by
the electricity supply companies for their non-residential customers, starting with 15 percent
in September 2012 and reaching 100 percent by end-2013. Regulated prices to
non-residential consumers will be removed from January 1, 2014. The pass-through
mechanism for electricity purchases by the distribution companies provided for in the
electricity supply regulation will be applied. For households, non-regulated tariffs will be
phased in beginning in 2013 and finishing by 2017.
In the gas sector, we will prepare by end-April 2012 (in consultation with the oil and gas
industry) a draft package of tax, royalty and regulatory measures for the oil and gas sector.
The package will cover oil and gas exploration, oil and gas production, gas storage, and gas
distribution and supply. The package will include a roadmap for the gradual removal of
regulated prices to non-residential and residential consumers and measures to protect
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 15
vulnerable consumers. In parallel, we will accelerate the ongoing negotiations on the Inter-
Governmental Agreement (IGA) with Russia and will also strive to take steps to diversify our
gas supply. We are committed to developing a gas trading platform. Towards this end, we
will name a system operator by April 1, 2012, with an aim of beginning operations on
January 1, 2013. Finally, we are fully aware that a parliamentary override of the presidential
veto of the gas export ban law could lead to the suspension of the program, as it
contravenes basic principles of the EU single market. We will actively seek to avoid such an
override.
The process to terminate all bilateral energy contracts of SOEs concluded outside of
OPCOM has started. Those that cannot be terminated in the short term are currently being
renegotiated to ensure that the duration will not be extended, quantities are reduced, prices
are adjusted as permitted to market conditions, and terms of the contracts published. In
addition, the Ministry of Economy, supported by the Ministry of Justice (within its legal
competencies) will assess options to terminate all existing bilateral contracts and will inform
the IFIs about our findings by end-February 2012. New bilateral contracts will continue to be
made transparently and non-discriminatorily through OPCOM (electricity) and other
competitive procedures (gas) and terms of the contracts will be published. As soon as the
new gas trading platform is operational, bilateral gas contracts will be traded through it.
The Ministry of Administration and Interior, together with the Ministry of Public Finance, will
ensure prompt application of Emergency Ordinance 69/2011. We will prepare by
end-March 2012 a report on final end-consumer prices for district heating compared with
those recommended by the regulator and those budgeted by municipalities, including
information on actual payments. This will allow us to assess whether recent legal changes
have improved the financing of the district heating system in Romania.
State-Owned Enterprises
18. We continue to implement measures to improve the performance of SOEs. Preliminary data
indicate that we met the fourth quarter indicative targets on the operating balance and arrears in
key companies. While we have achieved major improvement in some companies, more substantial
measures remain to be taken. Most restructuring plans for the central government SOEs have been
submitted, but the quality of these plans varies. By mid-February 2012 line ministries will send
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16 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
revised plans to the MOPF in accordance with guidance given by staff concerning aim and content
of these plans for all entities with more than 20 employees or a turnover of more than RON 1 million
in 2010.
19. On privatization, our goal remains to offer minority and majority stakes in a series of
companies over the coming months. We will seek professional advice on the overall strategy and
streamline the administrative framework for privatizations with the aim of attracting the best
advisors and achieving the highest possible price in a market-friendly manner. As noted in our last
Letter of Intent, the transaction consultants will have the task of drafting evaluation reports, and
recommending and justifying the offer price of the shares in view of a successful closing transaction.
Our planned privatization actions are as follows:
The first group of companies to be offered by end-April 2012 includes: i) Oltchim (sale of
remaining public shares to strategic investor), ii) Transelectrica (SPO of a 15 percent stake plus a
later capital increase of about 12 percent), iii) Transgaz (SPO of a 15 percent stake); and
iv) Cuprumin (full privatization).
The second group of companies includes i) Posta Romana (minority stake), ii) Romgaz (IPO of a
15 percent stake), iii) Electro Serv (majority privatization of company created by the merger of
Transilvania Sud, Transilvania Nord, and Muntenia Nord), and iv) Tarom (IPO of 20 percent).
Appointment of transaction advisors for this group will be completed by April 2012.
The third group comprises i) Hidroelectrica (IPO of 10 percent to increase capital); ii) Electrica
Serv (majority privatization of all remaining regional companies); iii) Nuclearelectrica (IPO of at
least 10 percent via capital increase); iv) S.C. Electrica Furnizare S.A. (including the supply activity
transferred from SC Electrica SA, majority privatization); and v) CFR Marfă (majority privatization).
Appointment of legal advisors for this group will be concluded by end-April 2012.
The following companies will be offered for privatization by end-December 2012/early 2013:
(i) the new energy producer Hunedoara, to be created by April 2012 by merging the power
plants in Paroşeni and Mintia and the four viable mines of CNH (majority privatization), (ii) the
new energy producer Oltenia to be created by merging SNLO and the three energy complexes
in Craiova, Rovinari and Turceni (majority privatization), and (iii) Elcen Bucuresti (majority
privatization).
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 17
20. In addition to the privatizations, we continue preparations to resolve the financial situation
of Termoelectrica. Valuable assets will be extracted or be sold and the remaining part of the
company will be placed into voluntary liquidation (end-April 2012).
21. We have begun to implement the requirements of our general corporate governance law,
the passage of which marked a significant improvement in the framework for SOE corporate
governance in Romania. In the Ministry of Economy, we have solicited and received bids for a firm to
assist in the process of selecting private management for key SOEs that remain under majority
government ownership. New management teams and board members will be selected by
end-April 2012 to take office as soon as legally possible thereafter. In cases where significant
minority stakes are to be sold, this timetable may be adjusted to allow for participation of the new
minority shareholders. For SOEs under the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure the
corresponding process will be started by end-February. We remain firmly committed to increasing
the number of SOEs with private management in the course of 2012.
Other Structural Reforms
22. We are continuing implementation of labor market and social assistance reforms approved
in 2011. The new Social Dialogue Code will begin to take effect this year, as an agreement has now
been reached among social partners regarding the sector definitions of collective contracts. We will
continue the consultation with International Labor Organization (ILO) to ensure that the new Social
Dialogue Code respects core ILO conventions. The Social Assistance Law, which aims to streamline
social benefits and improve the efficiency of social protection, was approved by the parliament. We
are now working on the secondary legislations of the social assistance. Recently implemented
legislation has already shown a positive impact. The new Labor Code has contributed to
employment recovery and increased the share of fixed-term contracts. The enforcement of the new
pension law has dramatically reduced the number of early retirements and the fraud rate of
handicapped pension applications; however, a deficit remains in the pensions system.
We are committed to improving entry into retail markets to maintain a competitive environment,
encourage innovation, and increase efficiency. In this regard we have eliminated in early
February 2012 undue barriers for opening large surface retail stores.
18 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ROM
ANIA
18 IN
TERNATIO
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ON
ETARY FUN
D
2010Dec March March June Sept Dec
Actual Actual Actual Actual Prog. Prelim. Prog. Prog. Indicative Indicative
I. Quantitative Performance Criteria1. Floor on the change in net foreign assets (mln euros) 1/ 2/ 20,026 119 1896 292.8 -500 -457 0 250 250 4502. Floor on general government overall balance (mln lei) 3/ -33,621 -5,254 -11260 -13,685 -23,953 -23,837 -3,100 -6800 -8500 -122103. Ceiling on stock of central government and social security arrears (bn lei) 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.024. 7.6 8.1 6.0 5.8 14.0 6.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
II. Continuous Performance Criterion5. Nonaccumulation of external debt arrears 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
III. Inflation Consultation6. 12-month rate of inflation in consumer prices
Outer band (upper limit) … … … … 5.7 … 4.1 4.4 5.9 5.2Inner band (upper limit) … … … … 4.7 … 3.1 3.4 4.9 4.2Actual/Center point 7.9 8.0 8.0 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.2Inner band (lower limit) … … … … 2.7 … 1.1 1.4 2.9 2.2Outer band (lower limit) … … … … 1.7 … 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.2
IV. Indicative Target7. Ceiling on general government current primary spending (excl. EU funds and social assistance, mln lei) 131,938 30,670 62,578 94,133 130,700 128,317 32,000 64,800 96,350 130,8508. Floor on operating balance (earnings before interest and tax, net of subsidies) of key SOEs. 4/
(as defined in TMU (bn. lei)) -6.8 -0.7 -1.8 -2.4 -3.9 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.7 -3.29. Ceiling on stock of arrears of key SOEs (as defined in TMU (bn. lei)) 4/ 17.9 19.2 19.7 18.5 15.9 14.9 17.0 15.0 12.5 9.010. Ceiling on stock of local government arrears (bn lei) 0.91 0.82 0.81 0.82 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.50 0.45 0.3011. Ceiling on the execution of the PNDI program (mln, lei) 5/ … … … … … … 200 400 700 1000
1/ The end-December 2010 figure is a stock.2/3/ Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g. March 2011 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2011). 4/ Adjusted indicative targets for end-September and end-December in 2011, reflecting the merger of SOEs under monitoring. 5/ Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g. March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012).
Ceiling on general government guarantees issued since end-2008 (face value, bn lei)
Cumulative flows relative to previous year end stock. 2011 December target is adjusted down from 500 million to -500 million reflecting the delayed Eurobond issurance.
Table 1. Romania: Quantitative Program Targets 2011 2012
June Sept Dec
INTERN
ATION
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NETARY FU
ND
19
ROM
ANIA
Measure Target Date Comment
1 Approve a roadmap for the deregulation of electricity prices as specified in the MEFP.
Quantitative performance criteria1. Floor on net foreign assets Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on general government overall balance Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on central government and social security domestic arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on general government guarantees Dec. 31, 2011 Met5. Non-accumulation of external debt arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Quantitative Indicative Target1. Ceiling on general government current primary spending Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on operating balance of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on stock of arrears of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on stock of local government arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Inflation consultation bandInner band Dec. 31, 2011 MetOuter band Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Structural benchmarks1. Undertake SOE reforms, including (i) Appointment of legal advisors for privatization of CFR Marfa, TAROM, Transelectrica,
Transgaz, and Romgaz; (ii) Preparation of action plans for the remaining SOEs of the central government; (iii) Design mechanisms to facilitate restructuring and securitizing SOE arrears. 1/
July 15, 2011 Partially Met
2. Completion of a comprehensive review of the existing investment portfolio, which will prioritize and evaluate existing projects to focus on those where funding can be fully secured, examine the viability of old projects, with low priority and unviable ones discontinued, and production of a final report and an action plan. 2/
Sept. 30, 2011 Partially Met
3. Prepare comprehensive amendments to the health care legislation to address the persistent budgetary shortfalls and to ensure high quality health care services. 3/
Dec. 31, 2011 Partially Met
4. Design measures to reduce registration of small VAT payers by 20 percent by end-September 2012(compared to end-September 2011).
Dec. 31, 2011 Met
5. Appoint transaction advisor for group 2 and legal advisor for group 3 as specified in MEFP. 4/ Feb. 15, 2012 Partially Met
New Structural Benchmarks1. An increase of 5 percent in the electricity price for both residential and nonresidential consumers. June 30, 2012
Table 2. Romania: Performance for Fourth Review
Prior Action5 days before the Board date
4/ Legal advisors were appointed for Electrica Serv and Nuclearelectrica. The deadline for hiring legal or transaction advisors for the other companies in Group 2 and Group 3 was rescheduled.
1/ Legal advisors were appointed for TAROM, Transelectrica, Transgaz, and Romgaz and mechanisms to facilitate restructuring of SOE arrears were implemented. In addition, most action plans have been received. The authorities committed to complete the action plan process by mid-February and to hire a legal advisor for CFR Marfa by end-April 2012.
2/ The investment portfolio is being revised to include local government projects co-financed by the state budget.
3/ The health care legislation is being revised to better address lack of financial controls and adequacy of funding needs in the health sector. The provisions on private insurance for basic medical benefits are also being reassessed.
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20 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ROMANIA: TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING (TMU)
February 28, 2012
1. This Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) defines the variables included in the
quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets set out in the Memorandum of Economic
and Financial Policies (MEFP), the key assumptions, the methods to be applied in assessing program
performance, and the reporting requirements to ensure adequate monitoring of economic and
financial developments. The quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets, and structural
benchmarks for 2011 and 2012 are listed in Tables 1 and 2 of the MEFP, respectively.
2. For the purposes of the program, the exchange rates of the Romanian Leu (RON) to the
euro is set at RON 4.2848 = €1, to the U.S. dollar at RON 3.2045 = $1, to the Japanese yen at RON
3.9400 = ¥100, and to the pound sterling at RON 4.9673 = ₤1, the rates as shown on the National
Bank of Romania’s (NBR’s) website as of December 31, 2010. The exchange rates to other
currencies, where applicable, will also be the ones shown on the NBR’s website as of
December 31, 2010.
3. For the purposes of the program, the general government includes the entities as defined in
the 2012 budget. These are: the central government (state budget, treasury, self-financed state
entities included in the budget, etc.), local governments, social security funds (pension, health, and
unemployment), road fund company, and administration of the property fund. This definition of
general government also includes any new funds, or other special budgetary and extra budgetary
programs that may be created during the program period to carry out operations of a fiscal nature
as defined in the IMF’s Manual on Government Finance Statistics 2001. The authorities will inform
IMF staff of the creation of any such new funds or programs immediately. As mentioned in the
MEFP ¶3 and ¶11 below, this definition will be expanded to cover state-owned enterprises
incorporated into the general government accounts under ESA95, upon completion of the review
being undertaken by Eurostat and successful implementation of the monitoring system being
undertaken by the Ministry of Public Finance (MOPF).
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 21
QUANTITATIVE PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, INDICATIVE TARGETS, INFLATION CONSULTATION BAND, AND CONTINUOUS PERFORMANCE CRITERIA
A. Floor on the Change in Net Foreign Assets
4. For program purposes, Net Foreign Assets (NFA) are defined as the NFA of the NBR minus
Treasury liabilities to the International Monetary Fund.
5. NFA of the NBR are defined as the euro value of gross foreign assets of the NBR (including
reserve requirements of the commercial banking system held at the NBR) minus gross foreign
liabilities of the NBR; and will be measured on the basis of the NBR’s operational rather than
accounting definitions. Non-euro denominated foreign assets and liabilities will be converted into
euro at the program exchange rates.
6. Gross foreign assets of the NBR are defined to include the NBR’s holdings of SDRs, the
country's reserve position at the IMF, holdings of cash, securities and deposits abroad in convertible
foreign currencies. Excluded from reserve assets are: (i) gold and other precious metals; (ii) assets in
nonconvertible currencies; (iii) illiquid assets; (iv) any assets that are pledged, collateralized, or
otherwise encumbered, unless there is also a gross foreign liability associated with it; (v) claims on
residents; and (vi) claims in foreign exchange arising from derivatives in foreign currencies vis-à-vis
domestic currency (such as futures, forwards, swaps, and options).
7. Gross foreign liabilities of the NBR are defined as all foreign exchange liabilities to residents
and nonresidents, including commitments to sell foreign exchange arising from derivatives (such as
futures, forwards, swaps, and options), and all credit outstanding from the IMF, but excluding (i)
banks’ foreign currency deposits against reserve requirements; and (ii) government foreign currency
deposits at the NBR. This definition is meant to bring the concept of foreign liabilities closer to the
balance of payment definition, on which the targets are based.
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22 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Floor on cumulative change in NFA from the beginning of 2011 and 2012 (in mln. euros)1 2010 2011 2011 2012
Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. stock actual actual actual actual Stock PC PC indicat. indicat.
Cumulative change in NFA
20,026 1192 1,896 293 -4573 19,569 0 250 250 450
Memorandum Item:
Gross Foreign Assets
32,432 996 2,793 1206 464 32,897 0 250 -350 -1050
1PC = performance criterion; data for end-month. Flows are cumulative from the beginning of the same calendar year (e.g., March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012). Current year stocks are obtained by adding the flows to the previous end-year stock. 2 PC met with an adjustment for the WB disbursement of €300 million. 3 PC met with an adjustment for the Eurobond issue of €1000 million.
8. The NFA targets will be adjusted upward (downward) by the full amount of the surplus
(shortfall) relative to the baseline of external bond placement by the MOPF. NFA targets will also be
adjusted (i) upward (downward) by the surplus (shortfall) in program disbursements relative to the
baseline projection (Program disbursements are defined as external disbursements from official
creditors (WB and the EC) that are usable for the financing of the overall central government
budget) and (ii) upward by the increase in commercial bank reserve requirements held with the NBR
relative to end-December 2011 (€6,037 million), measured at program exchange rates.
External program and MOPF disbursements–Baseline projections (in mln. euros)
2011 2012 Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec.
Cumulative flows from end of 2010 under external
program 1,200 1,650 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050
Flows of external MOPF bond placement
1,000 1,150 1,350 0 0
B. Consultation Mechanism on the 12-month Rate of Inflation
9. The quarterly consultation bands for the 12-month rate of inflation in consumer prices (as
measured by the headline consumer price index (CPI) published by the Romanian Statistical
Institute), are specified below. Should the observed year-on-year rate of CPI inflation fall outside the
outer bands specified below, the authorities will complete a consultation with the IMF on their
proposed policy response before requesting further purchases under the program. In addition, the
NBR will conduct discussions with IMF staff should the observed year-on-year rate of CPI inflation
fall outside the inner bands specified for the end of each quarter in the table below.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 23
Inflation consultation band
2010 2011 2012 Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. actual actual actual actual actual target target indicat. indicat.
Outer band (upper limit)
4.1 4.4 5.9 5.2
Inner band (upper limit)
3.1 3.4 4.9 4.2
Actual / Center point
7.9 8.0 8.0 3.5 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.2
Inner band (lower limit)
1.1 1.4 2.9 2.2
Outer band (lower limit)
0.1 0.4 1.9 1.2
C. Performance Criterion on General Government Balance
10. The budget deficit will be monitored quarterly through the cash balance of the general
government in GFS 1986 classification. The authorities will consult with IMF staff on corrective
measures in the event of shortfalls in government revenue and financing.
11. Starting from end-March 2012 performance criterion, the budget deficit will be measured
from above the line using the budget execution data. Expenditure will include the value of the works
executed under the contracts from the National Program for Infrastructure Development (PNDI).
12. Once the reporting system for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is fully functional, the budget
deficit target will be modified to be in line with the expanded definition of the general government,
which will include the following SOEs: C.N. de Autostrãzi si Drumuri Nationale din România SA,
Fondul Proprietatea SA, Metrorex SA, Administratia Fluviala Dunarea de Jos, CFR Calatori, CN Huila
Petrosani SA, SN a Carbunelui Ploiesti SA, CN Radiocomunicatii Constanta, SC Interventii Feroviare,
Cumulative floor on general government balance1
(In millions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) -33,621
End-March 2011 (actual) -5,254
End-June 2011 (actual) -11,260
End-September 2011 (actual) -13,685
End-December 2011 (actual) -23,837
End-March 2012 (performance criterion) -3,100
End-June 2012 (performance criterion) -6,800
End-September 2012 (indicative) -8,500
End-December 2012 (indicative) -12,210
1 Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g., March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012).
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24 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
CFR Infrastructura, SC Termoelectrica SA, Societatea Nationala Aeroportul International Mihail
Kogalniceanu, SC Electrificare SA, CN Administratia Canalelor Navigabile Constanţa SA , SC CN
Romarm, Santierul Naval Mangalia SA, Societatea Feroviara de Turism SFT CFR, SC Uzina Mecanica
Orastie, Societatea de Transport Maritim si de Coasta CFR Ferryboat SA, SC Avioane Craiova SA, SC
Petromin SA, SC Constructii Aeronautice SA, SC Sanevit 2003 SA, SC Uzina AutoMecanica SA Moreni,
SC Terom SA, SN Plafar SA, and SC Nicolina SA.
13. The Ministry of Public Finance (MOPF) will also provide monthly data to measure the deficit
from below the line. The balance of the general government measured from below the line will
include:
+ (i) net external financing, excluding valuation gains and losses;
+ (ii) change in net domestic credit from the financial system, excluding valuation gains and
losses from deposits denominated in foreign currency and including adjustments for;
+ (a) received EU funds not yet spent (advance payments);
+ (b) claims of the government on EU funds;
+ (c) property fund obligations not yet paid;
+ (iii) change in the stock of issued government securities, net of valuation changes;
+ (iv) net changes in other financing.
14. If the difference between the general government deficit measured from above the line and
from below the line is larger than lei 200 million each quarter during 2011 and 2012, the MOPF will
consult with IMF staff.
15. The performance criterion for the general government balance for end-March 2012 and
end-June 2012 (measured on a cumulative basis from the beginning of the year) will be adjusted
downward by the amount that capital spending (including spending related to EU funds and arrears
reduction plans, but excluding the works executed under the contracts from the PNDI) exceeds lei
6,970 million and lei 15,230 million, respectively, up to a limit of lei 1,800 million.
D. Performance Criterion Limiting the Issuance of Government Guarantees to the Non-
Financial Private Sector and Public Enterprises
16. The issuance of general government guarantees to the non-financial private sector and
public enterprises will be limited during the program period. This ceiling is set at RON 14 billion but
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 25
may be adjusted upward by up to RON 9.6 billion for guarantees for financing the Nabucco project.
Revision to targets will be renegotiated during future missions to allow for reasonable public
guarantees in the context of privatization of majority stakes in state-owned enterprises and
securitization of domestic payment arrears.
Ceiling on new general government guarantees issued from end 2008 until:
(In billions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) 7.6 End-March 2011 (actual) 8.1 End-June 2011 (actual) 6.0 End-September 2011 (actual) 5.8 End-December 2011 (actual) 6.5 End-March 2012 (performance criterion) 14.0 End-June 2012 (performance criterion) 14.0 End-September 2012 (indicative) 14.0 End-December 2012 (indicative) 14.0
E. Performance Criterion on the Stock of Domestic Arrears by the Central Government
and Social Security System
17. The performance criterion established on the stock in domestic payments arrears of the
central government and social security sector (as defined in ¶3 above) contemplates their
elimination during the program period. The stock will be measured net of intergovernmental arrears,
but both gross and net arrears will be reported by the government. In case of need, the government
will take corrective measures to prevent the accumulation of new spending arrears. For the purpose
of the program, arrears mean accounts payable past due date by 90 days (in line with ESA95
definitions for expenditures).
Stock of central government and social security arrears (In billions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) 0.19
End-March 2011 (actual) 0.15
End-June 2011 (actual) 0.11
End-September 2011 (actual) 0.10
End-December 2011 (actual) 0.09
End-March 2012 (performance criterion) 0.08
End-June 2012 (performance criterion) 0.06
End-September 2012 (indicative) 0.04
End-December 2012 (indicative) 0.02
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26 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
F. Continuous Performance Criteria on Non-Accumulation of External Payments Arrears
by the General Government
18. The general government will not accumulate external payment arrears during the program
period. For the purposes of this performance criterion, an external payment arrear will be defined as
a payment by the general government that has not been made within seven days of falling due. The
performance criterion will apply on a continuous basis.
G. Indicative Target on General Government Current Primary Spending
19. The indicative target on current primary expenditure of the general government is defined
as spending on personnel, goods and services excluding EU funds (specified under external grant
category), subsidies, transfers to public entities, pensions (social security budget in social assistance
category), state aid and other spending in other transfers category, Reserve Fund, and other
expenditure as classified in the monthly reporting tables. Actual data (to which the target will be
compared) should include payments related to arrears reduction plans.
Cumulative change in general government current primary expenditures1
(In millions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) 131,938
End-March 2011 (actual) 30,670
End-June 2011 (actual) 62,578
End-September 2011 (actual) 94,133
End-December 2011 (actual) 128,317
End-March 2012 (indicative) 32,000
End-June 2012 (indicative) 64,800
End-September 2012 (indicative) 96,350
End-December 2012 (indicative) 130,850
1 Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g., March 2012 figure is cumulative from
January 1, 2012).
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 27
H. Indicative Target on the Execution of the PNDI Program
20. An indicative target on the ceiling is set for the execution of the PNDI program.
Ceiling for the execution of the PNDI Program (In million of lei)
End-March 2012 (indicative) 200 End-June 2012 (indicative) 400 End-September 2012 ( indicative ) 700 End-December 2012 ( indicative ) 1,000 1 Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g., March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012).
I. Indicative Target on Local Government Arrears
21. The indicative target on the stock of domestic payments arrears of local governments
contemplates no accumulation of new arrears and their reduction during the program period. In
case of need, the government will take corrective measures to prevent the accumulation of new
spending arrears. For the purpose of the program, arrears mean accounts payable past the due
date by 90 days (in line with ESA95 definitions for expenditures).
Stock in local government arrears (In billions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) 0.91 End-March 2011 (actual) 0.82 End-June 2011 (actual) 0.81 End-September 2011 (actual) 0.82 End-December 2011 (actual) 0.75 End-March 2012 (indicative) 0.70 End-June 2012 (indicative) 0.50 End-September 2012 (indicative) 0.45 End-December 2012 (indicative) 0.30
J. Absorption of EU funds
22. The EU funds contribution mentioned in the MoU conditionality is to be measured taking
into account the eligible expenditure from both the structural and cohesion funds (SCF) and the
European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).
K. Monitoring of Public Enterprises
23. Public enterprises are defined as all companies, research institutes and regii autonome with a
cumulative public capital share of 50 percent or more, held directly or indirectly by local
governments and the central government.
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28 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
24. A quarterly indicative target for 2011 was set on the aggregate operating balance (earnings
before interest and tax) net of subsidies, accumulated per calendar year, of the following public
enterprises: C.N. Căi Ferate CFR S.A., C.N. de Autostrãzi si Drumuri Nationale din România S.A., C.N. a
Huilei S.A., C.N. Poşta Românã S.A., S.C. Complexul Energetic Turceni S.A., S.C. Filiala de Intretinere si
Servicii Energetice “Electrica Serv” - S.A., S.C. Metrorex S.A., S.N. de Transport Feroviar de Marfă ”CFR
Marfă” S.A., S.N. Transport Feroviar de Călători ”CFR Călători” S.A., C.N. Tarom S.A., S.C.
Electrocentrale Bucuresti S.A., S.C. Electrica Furnizare Transilvania Nord S.A., S.C. Oltchim S.A., S.C.
Termoelectrica S.A., SNa Lignitului Oltenia S.A., S.C. Electrificare CFR S.A., S. C. Interventii Feroviare
S.A., S. C. Telecomunicatii C.F.R. S.A. The data shall be reported with operating results by firm. Actual
performance was as follows:
Floor on cumulative operating balance1,2 (In billions of lei)
End-December 2010 (actual) -6.8 End-March 2011 (actual) -0.7 End-June 2011 (actual) -1.8
End-September 2011 (adjusted preliminary) -2.4
End-December 2011 (adjusted preliminary) -2.0 1 Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g., March 2011 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2011). 2 End September and end-December preliminary data exclude operating balance of S.C. Electrica Furnizare Transilvania Nord S.A.
25. A quarterly indicative target for 2012 is set on the aggregate operating balance (earnings
before interest and tax) net of subsidies, accumulated per calendar year, of the following public
enterprises: C.N. de Autostrãzi si Drumuri Nationale din România S.A., S.C. Metrorex S.A., C.N. Căi
Ferate CFR S.A. (including S. C. Interventii Feroviare S.A.), S.C. Electrificare CFR S.A., S. C.
Telecomunicatii C.F.R. S.A., S.N. Transport Feroviar de Călători ”CFR Călători” S.A., S.N. de Transport
Feroviar de Marfă ”CFR Marfă” S.A.,C.N. Tarom S.A., S.C. Oltchim S.A., C.N. a Huilei S.A., S.C.
Termoelectrica S.A., S.C. Electrocentrale Deva S.A., S.C. Electrocentrale Paroseni S.A., S.C.
Electrocentrale Galati S.A., S.C. Electrocentrale Bucuresti S.A., SNa Lignitului Oltenia S.A., S.C.
Complexul Energetic Craiova S.A., S.C. Complexul Energetic Rovinari S.A., S.C. Complexul Energetic
Turceni S.A., S.C. Hidroelectrica, S.C. Electrica S.A., C.N. Poşta Românã S.A. The data shall be reported
with operating results by firm. The targets will be as follows:
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 29
Floor on cumulative operating balance1 (In billions of lei)
End-March 2012 (indicative) -1.5
End-June 2012 (indicative) -2.2
End-September 2012 (indicative) -2.7
End-December 2012 (indicative) -3.2 1 Cumulative figure during calendar year (e.g., March 2012 figure is cumulative from January 1, 2012).
26. In case one of these firms is liquidated, or its majority share is privatized or merged with a
company not listed above, the aggregate target listed above will be adjusted by the original
operating balance target for this firm. If any of the companies listed above is split into a new
company, both companies will remain under monitoring. If some of the above companies are
merged, the newly created companies will remain under monitoring.
27. A quarterly indicative target for 2011 was set on the stock of arrears of the public enterprises
listed in ¶23. The data shall be reported at the firm level. Actual performance was as follows:
Ceiling on stock of arrears1 (In billions of lei) End-December 2010 (actual) 17.9 End-March 2011 (actual) 19.2
End-June 2011 (actual) 19.7
End-September 2011 (adjusted preliminary) 18.5
End-December 2011 (adjusted preliminary) 14.7 1 End September and end-December preliminary data exclude arrears of S.C. Electrica Furnizare Transilvania Nord S.A.
28. A quarterly indicative target for 2012 is set on the stock of arrears of the public enterprises
listed in ¶24. The data shall be reported at the firm level. The targets will be as follows:
Ceiling on stock of arrears (In billions of lei)
End-March 2012 (indicative) 17.0
End-June 2012 (indicative) 15.0 End-September 2012 (indicative) 12.5 End-December 2012 (indicative) 9.0
29. In case one of these firms is liquidated, its majority share is privatized or is merged with a
company not listed above, the aggregate target listed above will be adjusted by the original arrears
target for this firm. If any of the companies listed above is split into a new company, both
companies will remain under monitoring. If some of the above companies are merged, the newly
created companies will remain under monitoring.
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30 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
L. Private Management for Key SOEs
30. Private management will be selected, in line with MEFP ¶21, at least for the following state-
owned enterprises: i) C.N. Poşta Românã S.A., ii) C.N. Tarom S.A., iii) S.C. Electrificare CFR S.A., iv)
SNa Lignitului Oltenia S.A./Complexul Energetic Oltenia, v) S.C. Electrica Furnizare S.A., vi) S.C.
Hidroelectrica, vii) C.N. Romarm aparat central, and viii) S.C. Oltchim S.A..
31. In addition, private management is envisaged in the course of 2012 for the following
additional companies: i) C.N. Căi Ferate CFR S.A., ii) S.N. Transport Feroviar de Călători “CFR
Călători” S.A., iii) SN Nuclearelectrica, iv) S.N. Transgaz, v) CN Transelectrica, vi) S.N. Romgaz and vi)
C.N. Adm. Port. Maritim Constanta S.A..
M. Reporting Requirements
32. Performance under the program will be monitored from data supplied to the IMF and EC by
the NBR and the MOPF as outlined in the table below. The authorities will transmit promptly to IMF
and EC staff any data revisions as well as other information necessary to monitor the arrangement
with the IMF and EC
Romania: Data Provision to the IMF and EC
Item Periodicity
To be provided by the Ministry of Finance
Preliminary monthly data on general government accounts, including public enterprises as defined by ESA95
Monthly, on the 25th day of the following month
Quarterly final data on project execution under the Program for National Infrastructure Development
Quarterly, on the 25th day past the test date
Quarterly final data on general government accounts, including public enterprises as defined by ESA95
Quarterly cash data, on the 35th day past the test date; Quarterly accrual data, on the 55th day past test date
The budget deficit of the general government using ESA95 definition
Quarterly, with a lag of three months
Preliminary data on below-the-line financing for the general government
Monthly, with a lag of no more than 35 days past the test date
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 31
Final quarterly data on below-the-line financing for the general government
Quarterly, no later than 45 days past the test date
Total accounts payable and arrears of the general government, including local governments
Preliminary monthly, within the next month. Quarterly, within 55 days
Stock of the central government external arrears Daily, with a lag of not more than seven days
Public debt and new guarantees issued by the general government
Monthly, within one month
Preliminary monthly data on general government primary spending, net of EU disbursements
Preliminary monthly data within 25 days
Final quarterly data on general government primary spending, net of EU disbursements
Quarterly, within 35 days from the test date
Preliminary data on the operating balance, profits, stock of arrears, and personnel expenditures for each key public enterprise as defined in ¶22
Quarterly, within 30 days
Final data on the operating balance, profits, stock of arrears, and personnel expenditures for each key public enterprise as defined in ¶22
Quarterly, end May for the previous year and end-August for first half of the current year
Data on EU project grants (reimbursements and advances), capital expenditures and subsidies covered by EU advances or eligible for EU reimbursement on EU supported projects specifically agreed with the EU
Monthly, within three weeks of the end of each month
The balance of the TSA in RON Monthly, within two weeks of the end of each month
The balance of the two foreign currency accounts used for budget financing and public debt redemption purposes (average, and end-of-period)
Monthly, within two weeks of the end of each month
The balance of the privatization receipts registered in the account of the State Treasury, details on any claims on these receipts and projected net outflows.
Monthly, within two weeks of the end of each month
Reporting of progress in the implementation of the Romanian public administration's functional review
Quarterly, to be sent two weeks before each mission for each of the 12 ministries
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32 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
To be provided by the National Bank of Romania
NFA data, by components, in both program and actual exchange rates
Weekly, each Monday succeeding the reporting week and with a 3 working day lag in the case of end-quarter data
Monetary survey data in the format agreed with IMF and EC staff
Monthly, within 30 days of the end of the month
The schedule of contractual external payments of the banking sector falling due in the next four quarters, interest and amortization (for medium and long-term loans)
Monthly, 45 days after the end of each month
The schedule of contractual external payments of the corporate sector falling due in the next four quarters interest and amortization (for medium and long-term loans)
Monthly, 45 days after the end of each month
The stock of short-term external debt of banks and corporate
Monthly, 45 days after the end of each month
Balance of payments in the IMF format currently used to report
Monthly, 45 days after the end of each month
Exposure (deposits, loans, subordinated loans) of (i) foreign parent banks to their subsidiaries in Romania; (ii) IFI and (iii) other creditors to banks in Romania (by national and foreign currency).
Monthly, 20 days after the end of each month
Financial soundness indicators2 Monthly, 15 days after the end of each month
Foreign currency reserves including information on FX market interventions and swaps by the NBR
Bi-weekly
The IMF and the EC shall be immediately informed in case of sudden loss of reserves exceeding EUR 600 million, or if the stock of foreign exchange reserves falls below the floor of EUR 23 billion
Immediately, upon occurrence
2 Data on solvency should be provided on quarterly basis.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 33
ANNEX
Measures to Improve Performance of SOEs under Monitoring
C.N. Căi Ferate CFR S.A.
Revise the activity contract by end-February 2012;
Develop ways to improve management of the real estate of the transport sector SOEs,
possibly through the establishment of a special real estate company by end-March 2012;
Reduce personnel by 28 positions that were originally with Interventii by end-March 2012;
Reduce personnel and maintenance expenditures and reorganize and rationalize the
sectioning points, starting April 1, 2012.
Renegotiate the construction and rehabilitation agreement for the railway line Ramnicu
Valcea- Valcele and Portile de Fier and identify a financing source, including the possibility
of a state guarantee, by end April;
Continue tendering process for public service obligations and infrastructure maintenance for
1,600 line kilometers of extended railway, bringing the total number of line kilometers under
private management to 4,000 kilometers. Close all lines for which tenders failed, bringing
network under management of CFR down to 15.500 line kilometers, by end-April 2012;
Identify, together with the Ministry of Public Finance, possible compensation schemes for
the debts to be collected from the National Health Insurance Agency in order to reduce
arrears to the general government budget by end-April 2012;
Develop a terms of reference for and contracting the consultancy services for the detailed
analysis of the national railway network by end-April 2012;
Use budgetary means and/or a state credit guarantee to reduce arrears to electricity
suppliers by end-June 2012;
Implement agreement between CFR-SA from Romania and Eurostation from the Belgium to
set up a joint venture for the modernization of the North Station by end-June 2012;
Repair and put into circulation the Bucharest railway ring for passengers transport by
end-July 2012;
Increase by 10 percent y/y rental revenue by end-December 2012;
Appoint private management and board members in the course of 2012, if experience with
private management in SOEs is positive;
Present a short report on measures that have been implemented during the last month, key
findings of the various studies and new measures envisaged, during first week of every
month.
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34 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
S.C. Electrificare CFR S.A.
Appoint private management and board members by mid-2012;
Continue the restructuring and modernization program, including a further reduction of 85
positions by end-2012 (compared with September 1, 2011);
Ensure the acquisition of electricity via OPCOM when taking over supply and distribution
activity for traction energy for the whole railway system.
S.C. Telecomunicatii C.F.R. S.A.
Complete administrative formalities for subordinating SC Telecomunicatii S.A. under the
Ministry of Transports and Infrastructure;
Continue to elaborate legislation establishing the new framework for supplying
telecommunication services within an integrated system.
S.N. de Transport Feroviar de Marfă “CFR Marfă” S.A.
Provide analysis of pros and cons for potential merger of maintenance companies of Marfa
and Calatori (Societatea Comercială Întreţinere şi Reparaţii Locomotive şi Utilaje “C.F.R.
IRLU”-S.A and Societatea Comerciala de Reparaţii Locomotive C.F.R. SCRL Braşov S.A.), to be
directly owned by Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, by mid-April 2012;
Negotiate with Ministry of Public Finance, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Ministry of
Economy arrears cancellation schemes for (power plants and Oltchim-Electrica) by mid-
March 2012;
Send notification to DG Comp for envisaged state-aid scheme aiming at arrears reduction,
based on the prudent private seller test, by in April 2012;
Appoint privatization consultant for majority privatization to strategic investor by end-April
(formerly structural benchmark for mid-February 2012);
Identify, together with the Ministry of Public Finance, possible compensation schemes for
the debts to be collected from the National Health Insurance Agency in order to reduce
arrears to the general government budget by end-April 2012;
Publish the shares selling announcement by mid-June 2012, with view to conclude
privatization by end-October 2012;
Scrap and valorify 3000 depreciated cars by end-August 2012;
Implement integrated system for assets and management remuneration by end-
November 2012;
Reinforce continuously efforts to collect outstanding invoices, including by giving notice on
contracts and taking legal measures against companies with substantial arrears.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 35
S.N. Transport Feroviar de Călători “CFR Călători” S.A.
Provide analysis of pros and cons for potential merger of maintenance companies of Marfa
and Calatori (Societatea Comercială Întreţinere şi Reparaţii Locomotive şi Utilaje “C.F.R.
IRLU”-S.A and Societatea Comerciala de Reparaţii Locomotive C.F.R. SCRL Braşov S.A.), to be
directly owned by Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, by mid-April 2012;
Identify, together with the Ministry of Public Finance, possible compensation schemes for
the debts to be collected from the National Health Insurance Agency in order to reduce
arrears to the general government budget by end-April 2012;
Contract a consultant to evaluate the necessary services and related costs for achieving the
minimum social package by end-May 2012, with corresponding action to be taken
immediately thereafter;
Identify, together with the Ministry of Public Finance and the Competition Council financing
possibilities for renewing and repairing old rolling stock by end-June 2012;
Scrap and valorify 240 depreciated cars by end-June 2012;
Identify, together with the Ministry of Public Finance, an arrears reduction scheme possibly
amounting to 300 mil RON by end-June 2012;
For 2012, after the taking over of the subsidiaries, the number of personnel should not
exceed at the 2011 level.
Increase 2012 revenues by 6 percent over 2011 from activities connected to public railway
transport, in particular by renting all publicity spaces available;
Appoint private management and board members in the course of 2012, if experience with
private management in SOEs is positive.
S.C. Metrorex S.A.
Adopt new circulation schedules to bring transport capacity in line with market demand, by
end-June 2012;
Increase revenues by introducing 16 new metro trains into circulation starting early 2013;
Include S.C. Metrorex S.A. in the list of potential beneficiaries of SOP –Transport 2014 – 2020
in order to use European Structural Funds.
C.N. de Autostrãzi si Drumuri Nationale din România S.A.
Customize internal management control standards: by end March 2012, 12 out of the
necessary 25 standards will be finalized and implemented;
Increase revenues by extending information system for the toll system; contract for
installation of 63 new fixed control points:
o Sign the contract by end April 2012;
ROMANIA
36 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
o Ensure that 50 percent of the fixed control points are functional by end October 2012;
o Finalize and take over the information system by end January 2013.
C.N. Tarom S.A.
Redeliver the third Boeing B 737-800 leased-in aircraft (or reducing the rental rate at the
level of the prices from the market) by end-March 2012;
Develop a restructuring program (measures regarding the routes and fleet structure and the
organization design), based on the diagnosis of Roland Berger, and include measures to be
proposed for the Annex to the TMU, by mid-April 2012;
Publish prospectus for privatization of at least a 20 percent stake via IPO by end-May 2012,
with view to conclude privatization by end-June 2012;
Renegotiate the contract with Globeground to reduce ground-handling operations costs.
Appoint private management and board members shortly after conclusion of privatization;
Reduce costs (e.g. by renegotiation of contracts, voluntary personnel reductions,
discontinuation of selected lines and flights, by renegotiation of lease-in contract for flying
staff, extending the saving oil consumption program);
Increase revenues (e.g. by alternative sales strategies and optimizing pricing policies,
developing strategy for additional lines to Eastern Europe in cooperation with Skyteam
partners, resuming on-board sales and sale of TAROM branded products).
C.N. Poşta Românã S.A.
Hire legal and transaction advisor for capital increase by at least 20 percent by end-
March 2012;
Reduce staff by at least 600 employees by end-March 2012;
Reduce postal subunits from 5,835 at end-2011 to below 5,700 by end-April 2012;
Publish prospectus for capital increase of strategic investor by end-May 2012;
Finalize capital increase by end-June 2012;
Implement installment plan for clearance of past tax arrears;
Appoint private management and board members shortly after capital increase has been
implemented in close cooperation with new shareholder.
S.C. Oltchim S.A.
Select new management team and board members as soon as possible;
Publish announcement for SPO by mid-March 2012, with view to conclude privatization
around end-April 2012, contingent on DG Comp decision;
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 37
Neither Oltchim nor the government will acquire the refinery in Arpechim prior to
privatization.
C.N. a Huilei S.A
Complete transfer to ANAF of non-viable parts of CNH by mid-February 2012. Create
independent company for non-viable mines, within 90 days of decision by EC on state aid,
for the purpose of closing the mines down in line with EU regulations;
Offer viable mines in open and transparent tendering process shortly after decision by DG
Comp on state aid;
Start CNH liquidation by end-September 2012.
S.C. Termoelectrica S.A., including S.C. Electrocentrale Paroseni S.A., S.C. Electrocentrale Deva
S.A. and S.C. Electrocentrale Galati S.A.
Use forced execution by ANAF for Electrocentrale Bucuresti by mid-February 2012 and put it
under direct ownership of the Ministry of Economy;
Use forced execution by ANAF for the subsidiaries Paroseni and Deva by mid-February 2012
and start forming the new energy company Hunedoara by merging these two companies;
Extract remaining valuable assets of Termoelectrica via forced execution by ANAF or sell
them and place the remaining part of the company into voluntary liquidation by end-
February 2012;
Put group 1 of Electrocentrale Deva of 210 MW into conservation by end-April 2012;
Appoint legal advisor for majority privatization of new energy company Hunedoara by end-
June 2012; appoint transaction advisor for majority privatization by end-August 2012, with
view to complete privatization by end-2012.
S.C. Electrocentrale Bucuresti S.A.
Complete forced execution by ANAF against Termoelectrica by mid-February 2012 and put it
under direct ownership of the Ministry of Economy;
Complete transfer of ownership of CTE Iernut to SNGN ROMGAZ SA in payment of arrears
by end-March 2012;
Develop strategy for clearing outstanding payments between Elcen Bucuresti and Radet
Bucuresti and Radet Constanta, in conjunction with the Ministry of Economy and the
municipalities of Bucharest and Constanta, even if this might imply a full waiver of penalties,
by end-March 2012;
ROMANIA
38 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Appoint transaction advisor by end-August 2012;
Publish prospectus by end-October 2012, with view to conclude privatization by end-2012.
SNa Lignitului Oltenia S.A. and S.C. Complexul Energetic Turceni S.A., S.C. Complexul
Energetic Craiova S.A. and S.C. Complexul Energetic Rovinari S.A.
Sign contract with consultant for merger of SNLO and the three energy complexes in
Craiova, Rovinari and Turceni by end-February 2012;
Appoint private management and board members as from the formation of the new
Complexul Energetic Oltenia;
Turceni: Reduce personnel by 80 (compared with end-2011) by end-March 2012;
Create new energy producer by merging SNLO and the three energy complexes in Craiova,
Rovinari and Turceni and publish merger in Official Gazette by end-April 2012;
Appoint legal advisor for majority privatization of newly created company via IPO or to
strategic investor by summer 2012;
Appoint transaction advisor by summer 2012;
Publish prospectus for privatizations by late 2012, with view to conclude privatization offer
by end-2012 or shortly thereafter;
Continuous reduction of underground operation of SNLO with aim to terminate it by end-
March 2013.
S.C. Hidroelectrica S.A.
Conclude renegotiation of bilateral contracts as permitted to market conditions by
February 15, 2012. If conclusion not possible, cancel contract where legally permissible;
Select new management team and board members by end-April 2012 to take office as soon
as legally possible thereafter;
Appoint investment bank for IPO by mid-February 2012;
Publish prospectus by end-August 2012; with view to conclude IPO by end-October 2012.
S.C. Electrica S.A. including subsidiaries
Keep remaining 3 distribution subsidiaries in separate companies as merging them could
lead to competition restrictions;
Appoint legal advisor for majority privatization of regional Electrica-Serv companies via IPO
or to strategic investor by mid-February 2012;
ROMANIA
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 39
Transfer the own supply activity of SC Electrica SA to SC Electrica Furnizare SA by the mid-
March 2012;
Appoint investment bank for privatization of all six new companies created by splitting
Electrica Serv by end-April 2012;
Appoint investment bank for all other privatizations, including majority privatization of SC
Electrica Furnizare SA, by mid-June 2012;
Publish prospectus for privatization of new Electrica Serv company active in the area of
Transilvania Sud, Transilvania Nord and Muntenia Nord by end-May 2012, with view to
conclude privatization by end-June 2012;
Publish prospectus for all other privatizations by mid-August 2012, with view to conclude
privatization by end-October 2012;
File for liquidation for all Electrica-Serv companies for which privatization failed immediately
thereafter;
Reduce personnel of Electrica in parallel to privatization of subsidiaries and own supply
activity.
ROMANIA Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Supplementary Information
1. This supplement provides an update on economic and policy developments since the issuance of the staff report on March 7, 2012. The additional information does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal.
2. Recent indicators suggest a continued weakening of growth. The 2011 GDP data confirmed an annual growth of 2.5 percent, in line with staff expectations. The Q4 GDP data showed a slight contraction of 0.2 percent quarterly (+1.9 percent y-o-y). Private consumption and fixed investment grew faster than expected, while public consumption and inventories continued to drag down domestic demand. Export growth also slowed down but net exports contributed positively due to a contraction in imports. High frequency indicators for January pointed to moderate growth. Industrial production and construction posted modest gains and consumption indicators remained strong with retail trade volumes, consumer confidence, and employment improving further. However, new industrial orders fell and Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative due to the adverse impact of severe weather in February.
3. Annual inflation fell further to 2.6 percent in February. This figure was somewhat higher than expected, perhaps reflecting supply disruptions from the severe weather.
4. Financial market conditions continued to improve. Five year CDS spreads have narrowed by around 50 basis points since end-February to near 300 bps. Equity prices have been stable in March following an increase of over 10 percent in February.
5. Pre-election political pressures are rising, increasing risks to the 2012 budget deficit. Senior officials have publicly discussed possible public sector wage increases and/or reductions in social contribution rates. However, the authorities have also reaffirmed their commitment to the program targets.
6. The government met the prior action. On March 14, the government approved a memorandum laying out a multi-year roadmap for liberalization of electricity prices for both household and non-household consumers. These steps will help ensure full cost recovery and market based pricing.
Approved By Poul M. Thomsen and Vivek Arora
March 19, 2012
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Measure Target Date Comment
1 Approve a roadmap for the deregulation of electricity prices as specified in the MEFP. Met
Quantitative performance criteria1. Floor on net foreign assets Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on general government overall balance Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on central government and social security domestic arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on general government guarantees Dec. 31, 2011 Met5. Non-accumulation of external debt arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Quantitative Indicative Target1. Ceiling on general government current primary spending Dec. 31, 2011 Met2. Floor on operating balance of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met3. Ceiling on stock of arrears of key SOEs Dec. 31, 2011 Met4. Ceiling on stock of local government arrears Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Inflation consultation bandInner band Dec. 31, 2011 MetOuter band Dec. 31, 2011 Met
Structural benchmarks1. Undertake SOE reforms, including (i) Appointment of legal advisors for privatization of CFR Marfa, TAROM, Transelectrica,
Transgaz, and Romgaz; (ii) Preparation of action plans for the remaining SOEs of the central government; (iii) Design mechanisms to facilitate restructuring and securitizing SOE arrears. 1/
July 15, 2011 Partially Met
2. Completion of a comprehensive review of the existing investment portfolio, which will prioritize and evaluate existing projects to focus on those where funding can be fully secured, examine the viability of old projects, with low priority and unviable ones discontinued, and production of a final report and an action plan. 2/
Sept. 30, 2011 Partially Met
3. Prepare comprehensive amendments to the health care legislation to address the persistent budgetary shortfalls and to ensure high quality health care services. 3/
Dec. 31, 2011 Partially Met
4. Design measures to reduce registration of small VAT payers by 20 percent by end-September 2012(compared to end-September 2011).
Dec. 31, 2011 Met
5. Appoint transaction advisor for group 2 and legal advisor for group 3 as specified in MEFP. 4/ Feb. 15, 2012 Partially Met
New Structural Benchmarks1. An increase of 5 percent in the electricity price for both residential and nonresidential consumers. June 30, 2012
Table 1 (Revised Table 2 of the staff report). Romania: Performance for Fourth Review
Prior Action5 days before the Board date
4/ Legal advisors were appointed for Electrica Serv and Nuclearelectrica. The deadline for hiring legal or transaction advisors for the other companies in Group 2 and Group 3 was rescheduled.
1/ Legal advisors were appointed for TAROM, Transelectrica, Transgaz, and Romgaz and mechanisms to facilitate restructuring of SOE arrears were implemented. In addition, most action plans have been received. The authorities committed to complete the action plan process by mid-February and to hire a legal advisor for CFR Marfa by end-April 2012.
2/ The investment portfolio is being revised to include local government projects co-financed by the state budget.
3/ The health care legislation is being revised to better address lack of financial controls and adequacy of funding needs in the health sector. The provisions on private insurance for basic medical benefits are also being reassessed.
Press Release No. 12/98 International Monetary Fund FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, D.C. 20431 USA March 21, 2012
IMF Completes Fourth Review Under Stand-By Arrangement for Romania The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the fourth review of Romania’s economic performance under a program supported by a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The authorities have indicated that they will continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary and therefore do not intend to draw under it. Completion of the review makes an additional amount equivalent to SDR 430 million (about €500 million, or about US$662 million) available for disbursement, bringing the total resources that are currently available to Romania under the SBA to SDR 1.78 billion (about €2 billion, or about US$2.74 billion). The SBA was approved on March 25, 2011 (see Press Release No 11/101) in the amount of SDR 3,090.6.1 million (about €3.6 billion, or about US$4.77 billion) and came into effect on March 31, 2011. Following the Executive Board’s discussion on Romania, Ms. Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said: “Romania continues to make good progress under the precautionary Fund-supported program. Policy implementation has remained strong and all program targets were met. After two years of decline, economic growth has resumed and inflation has fallen to historical lows. However, the economic outlook for this year is being weighed down by the declining growth prospects in the euro area. Continued commitment to the economic reform agenda is crucial to help withstand current uncertainties and increase potential growth. “The authorities remain firmly committed to their 2012 budget deficit target of well below 3 percent of GDP. Continued strict spending discipline is needed to achieve the target. Increased European Union funds absorption and improved capital spending are key priorities. Additional action is required to reform the health care sector and to improve weak tax administration. Structural reforms of State-Owned Enterprises have progressed, but faster implementation of restructuring efforts and enhanced regulation and market-oriented pricing in the energy and transport sectors will be essential to reduce arrears, improve economic efficiency, and boost growth.
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“While risks in the banking system remain significant due to high non performing loans and potential financial spillovers from elsewhere in Europe, sizable capital buffers exist to cushion the impact of any adverse shocks. Continued supervisory vigilance and detailed operational procedures to quickly implement contingency plans remain essential. External financing conditions have eased, although banks’ external borrowing remains skewed to the short-term. Inflation continues to decline, but the authorities should be cautious in further monetary easing in light of risks of weakening of the currency and possible capital outflows.”
Statement by Mr. Menno Snel, Executive Director for Romania
and Mr. Mihai Tanasescu, Senior Advisor to the Executive Director March 21, 2012
The program supported by the international financial institutions played an important role in stabilizing the Romanian economy, generating results in boosting growth and maintaining fiscal and financial stability. Romania’s performance under the current program remains strong, and all performance criteria and indicative targets for the fourth review were met. The authorities continue their efforts on a large structural agenda, with a focus on reforming the health care sector and state-owned enterprises. Recent Economic Developments Economic growth has resumed after two years of recession. As a whole, the economy grew in 2011 by 2.5 percent (up from 2 percent previously forecast), and is expected to continue on a positive path in 2012. However, 2012 economic growth is likely to be less robust than previously foreseen, reflecting mainly the deteriorating external environment in the euro area and spillover effects from financial market turbulence. Amid signs of a gradually improving labor market and the anticipated absorption of EU funds, 2012 growth is expected to be mainly driven by domestic demand, reaching around 1.5–2 percent. The inflation rate has dropped sharply in recent months to 2.56 percent at end-February, reflecting a large decline in food prices and elimination of the first-round effect of the 2010 VAT increase. We expect inflation to remain below 3 percent in the first half of 2012, before gradually climbing, and to stay within the central bank’s target band of 3 plus/minus 1 percent. The external position improved significantly. The current account deficit is projected to remain around 4–4.5 percent of GDP in 2012, stabilizing at 4.5–5 percent of GDP thereafter. In 2012, net exports are expected to remain stable as the projected recession in the euro zone should depress export growth while also leading to subdued import demand. FDI inflows are expected to remain depressed amidst the faltering economy in the euro area, but further privatizations could generate some recovery. Taking advantage of favorable market conditions, in January the authorities successfully extended their Medium-Term Note program by issuing a US$ 1.5 billion 10 year dollar denominated Eurobond, and reopened the issue in late February for another US$ 750 million. The authorities will continue to build up their foreign currency buffers, including 1 billion Euros from the World Bank DPL-DDO financing, with a view to maintaining four months of gross financing needs. Moreover, they continue to build up the yield curve, including with the recent launch of a domestic bond with a 15 year maturity.
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Despite the progress achieved, the recovery remains vulnerable to adverse developments in international markets and weaker than expected growth in Western Europe. Spillovers from the ongoing turbulence in the euro area could further dampen exports and affect capital flows to Romania through the banking system. The authorities will remain vigilant, act proactively, and take the necessary steps to contain these risks. Fiscal Policy The fiscal package implemented since the beginning of the previous program in 2009 has produced the targeted adjustment and put the fiscal stance on the right path. The 2011 cash deficit target was met with a significant margin and the expenditure savings were allocated to capital spending at the end of the year, including to clear arrears and unpaid bills in state-owned enterprises and the health sector. The 2012 budget is based on a cash deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP, well below 3 percent of GDP on ESA terms. Despite the downward revision in economic growth this year, higher than projected tax yields carried over from last year, together with lower expenditures, are expected to put this ambitious target within reach. Moreover, to achieve this goal, the authorities decided to freeze public wages and pensions and to continue reductions in public employment. To stimulate domestic demand, however, the authorities could later consider an increase in the wage bill, if economic conditions permit. On the expenditure side, the authorities will continue efforts to improve and prioritize capital spending in order to increase the absorption of EU funds. The authorities approved a list of 100 EU-funded priority projects whose implementation will be strictly monitored. Savings in capital expenditures could come from the reduction in the national co-financing of EU-funded projects from 15 to 5 percent. On health care reform, the authorities will implement a comprehensive package of measures to address the structural deficits of the health care system, including having a revised draft framework by mid-year, which will enhance service quality over the medium term. A key element of the framework law will be to define a publicly provided basic healthcare package, with increased private sector involvement in healthcare provision and financing, such as through supplementary private insurance and private management of hospitals. On the revenue side, tax policies will remain largely unchanged, including the VAT rate, which will be kept at 24 percent. With the technical assistance of the Fund, the authorities will review the tax code to close the tax loopholes and improve its efficiency. Crucial elements in the current program to increase revenue are improving the tax administration and fighting tax evasion. The authorities are making progress in the areas of organizational restructuring, administrative efficiency, risk assessment, taxpayer segmentation, and indirect and audit methods.
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To continue the fiscal consolidation path, the authorities are committed to decreasing the stock of arrears. At the end of 2011 general government arrears amounted to less than 0.2 percent of GDP, mostly concentrated at the local government level, particularly in smaller communities. Stricter enforcement of the local public finance law will continue to reduce the stock of existing arrears. In the health sector, arrears in registered bills have been completely eliminated. Outside of the general government, arrears in state owned enterprises continued to be reduced, but additional efforts are needed. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies The monetary authorities responded appropriately to recent economic developments, and the central bank has gradually reduced its policy rate amid abating inflationary pressures. Since November 2011, the central bank eased by a cumulative 75 basis points, to 5.5 percent, while maintaining the reserve requirements on local and FX currencies. The impact of the rate cuts on the exchange rate and capital flows has so far been limited. However, upside risks remain, including additional adjustment of administered prices and a possible rebound of domestic food prices. Nonetheless, inflation is expected to stay within the central bank’s target band of 3 plus/minus 1 percent at end-2012. In light of the gathering risks of contagion from financial disturbances in the region and possible capital outflows, the monetary authorities will remain vigilant against inflation risks and committed to taking action as needed to assure achievement of the 2012 inflation target. The Romanian financial sector so far has weathered well the impact of the economic challenges. The banking system remained well capitalized with an average capital adequacy ratio of 14.5 percent at end-December 2011 supported by new capital injections of RON 1.6 billion (about 400 million Euros). NPLs have stagnated at 14 percent at end-2011, and provisioning remains prudent, covering 99.5 percent of NPLs. To help mitigate the rise in impaired loans and improve the efficiency of bank balance sheets, the authorities will revise the tax treatment of bank loans sold to Romanian entities to remove current tax disincentives, and will undergo an assessment by the World Bank of the arrangements for insolvency and creditor rights. A key role in keeping the financial system in good health has been played by the European Bank Coordination Initiative. The aggregate exposure to Romania of the nine banks in the initiative stood at 101 percent of the March 2009 level, and even though they have not agreed on a specific target exposure level, going forward these banks have affirmed their long-term commitment to the country and continued to report exposures. In light of the current international vulnerabilities, the central bank remains vigilant to weaknesses in the banking system, and stands ready to provide liquidity as necessary to mitigate segmentation in the interbank market. It is also refining its full range of contingency measures to be deployed if necessary to preserve depositor confidence. The central bank will continue to intensively supervise the banking system and take the necessary measures to ensure that banks have sufficient capital and liquidity.
4
On the regulatory front, the central bank continues to make progress in strengthening the institutional framework and operational preparedness of the financial safety net. In January 2012 amendments were adopted to the bank resolution legislation to introduce bridge bank and other stabilization powers for dealing with failing banks, as well as to strengthen arrangements to augment quickly the resources of the Deposit Guarantee Fund. Structural Reforms Under the current program the authorities are committed to deep-rooted reform of state owned enterprises, especially in the transport and energy sectors, to enable sustainable economic growth and better competitiveness. The authorities have made progress in the reform agenda, but challenges remain. In the energy sector, the authorities envisage major reforms, including a change in the national energy strategy with a view to attracting more private capital and allowing more transparent, flexible, and competitive energy production and supply. To enhance the pricing and regulatory framework, the government approved a roadmap to gradually adjust regulated electricity prices for non-households, leading to full liberalization of this segment by January 2014. In the gas sector, the authorities aim to develop a roadmap for the deregulation of gas prices by April 2012. To address regulatory deficiencies, the government approved and submitted to parliament legislation to transpose the 3rd EU Energy Package, including the functional and financial independence of the energy regulator. Progress has been made on restructuring of the state-owned enterprises, and despite some delays the authorities remain committed to speeding up implementation and preparing several companies for privatization. The implementation of the new corporate governance law has commenced, and three companies will introduce private management this year. In the transport sector, the authorities continued to implement measures to cut expenditures and raise revenues. In the rail sector, the government has made progress in closing underutilized rail lines and streamlining the operations in certain transport state-owned enterprises. Moreover, major infrastructure projects using EU funds are advancing and revenues are increasing through tariff adjustments and enhanced toll collection. Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2009 Stand By Arrangement The 2008 financial crisis hit hard the Romanian economy, and created external and domestic imbalances, including a rapid increase in domestic private credit and associated asset bubbles. Given the severity of the problems, at the beginning of 2009 the authorities requested an SBA to restore market confidence by addressing the economic imbalances and, along with reforms, to achieve medium-term fiscal sustainability. The authorities fully agree that the SBA implementation demonstrated that the program was well designed, while
5
appropriate reform prioritization was central to achieving the program objectives. The large and front-loaded financing along with upfront fiscal actions helped quickly restore market confidence, with a successful return to private financial markets during the program period. Thanks to the European Bank Coordination Initiative, the banking system weathered the crisis well, and foreign banks committed to maintaining their exposure to their Romanian subsidiaries and capitalize them as needed. The fiscal consolidation process together with a comprehensive structural agenda made it possible to achieve medium-term fiscal sustainability and improve fiscal institutions. Moreover, the structural reforms, such as the public wage reform, pension reform, labor market reform, state-owned enterprise reform helped to put Romania in a better medium-term fiscal position and boost potential growth. The authorities consider the first SBA to have been appropriate and the measures implemented have restored macroeconomic stability and achieved an orderly adjustment of pre-crisis imbalances. Last but not least, the program embodied successful cooperation between the EU and the Fund. In conclusion, my authorities concur that the first SBA and the current precautionary SBA will maintain the reform momentum, provide additional security against unforeseen shocks, and build on the considerable progress achieved over the past three years, thereby setting the stage for strong and sustainable economic development while maintaining external and internal stability.