Download - IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 1/23
World Energy Outlook 2010World Energy Outlook 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Presentation to the pressLondon, 9 November 2010
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 2/23
The context:The context: A time of unprecedented A time of unprecedented uncertainty uncertainty
The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over –but is the recovery sustainable?
Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what does this mean for future price movements?
© OECD/IEA 2010
–will it herald a golden era for gas?
Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances –
but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented?
China & other emerging economies will shape the global energyfuture – where will their policy decisions lead us?
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 3/23
International oil price assumptionsInternational oil price assumptions
80
100
120
140
r s p e r b a r r e l ( 2
0 0 9 )
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2010
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices
than would otherwise be the case
0
20
40
60
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
D o l l
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 4/23
Recent policy commitments,Recent policy commitments,if implemented, would make a differenceif implemented, would make a difference
World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
M
t o e
Rest of world
China
OECD
WEO-2009:
© OECD/IEA 2010
Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China,where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 5/23
Emerging economies dominateEmerging economies dominatethe growth in demand for all fuelsthe growth in demand for all fuels
Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035
Gas
Oil
Coal
OECD
China
Rest of world
© OECD/IEA 2010
Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries,while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
- 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Mtoe
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 6/23
FossilFossil--fuel subsidies are distortingfuel subsidies are distortingprice signalsprice signals
Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by country, 2009
40
50
60
70
B i l l i o
n d o l l a r s Electricity
(generated from
fossil fuels)
Gas
Oil
Coal
© OECD/IEA 2010
Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from$558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices
I r a n
S a u d i A r a b i a
R u s s i a
I n d i a
C h i n a
E g y p t
V e n e z u e l a
I n d o n e s i a
U A E
U z b e k i s t a n
I r a q
K u w a i t
P a k i s t a n
A r g e n t i n a
U k r a i n e
A l g e r i a
M a l a y s i a
T h a i l a n d
B a n g l a d e s h
M e x i c o
T u r k m e n i s t a n
S o u t h A f r i c a
Q a t a r
K a z a k h s t a n
L i b y a
0
10
20
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 7/23
Booming demand for mobility in theBooming demand for mobility in theemerging economies drives up oil useemerging economies drives up oil use
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
M i l l i
o n
China
Other non-OECD
United States
Other OECD
Passenger vehicles in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2010
The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 8/23
Oil production becomes less crudeOil production becomes less crude
World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
80
100
m b / d
Crude oil - fields yet
Unconventional oil
Natural gas liquids
© OECD/IEA 2010
Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus
0
20
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Crude oil – currently
producing fields
Total crude oil
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 9/23
More oil from fewer producersMore oil from fewer producers
Incremental oil production by key country in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
Venezuela
Canada
Kazakhstan
Brazil
IraqSaudi Arabia OPEC
Non-OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2010
Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC’s market share from41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Algeria
Libya
Nigeria
Qatar
Iran
KuwaitUAE
mb/d
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 10/23
A golden age for gas?A golden age for gas?
Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs
> demand rises by 44%, led by China & Middle East
Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in globalsupply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging
© OECD/IEA 2010
Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly
The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from
oil-price indexation, notably in Europe
Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing outrenewables & coal in power generation
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 11/23
Coal remains the backbone of globalCoal remains the backbone of globalelectricity generationelectricity generation
8 000
10 000
12 000
T W h China
India
Other non-OECD
Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2010
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially
China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 12/23
Renewables enter the mainstream….Renewables enter the mainstream….
Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
India
Africa
OECD Pacific 2008
2035
© OECD/IEA 2010
The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
0 100 200 300 400 500
European Union
United States
China
Brazil
Mtoe
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 13/23
….but only if there is enough….but only if there is enoughgovernment supportgovernment support
Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario
n d o l l a r s ( 2 0 0 9
)
Biofuels
Renewables-based electricity
150
180
210
© OECD/IEA 2010
Government support remains the key driver – rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billionin 2035 – but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
B i l l i o
0
30
60
90
2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 14/23
China becomes the market leaderChina becomes the market leaderin lowin low--carbon technologiescarbon technologies
Passenger car sales
Capacity additions
China’s share of cumulative global additions to 2035 for selected technologies
335 GW
105 GW
20%
30%
8.5 million
© OECD/IEA 2010
Given the sheer scale of China’s market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries
0%
10%
Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric &plug-in hybrids
vehicles
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 15/23
Caspian energy riches could enhanceCaspian energy riches could enhanceglobal energy securityglobal energy security
Caspian oil & gas outlook in the New Policies Scenario
4
5
6
m b
/ d
200
250
300
350
b
c m
© OECD/IEA 2010
Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035,while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm
0
1
2
2000 2009 2020 2035
Oil net exports Inland oil consumption
0
50
100
150
2000 2009 2020 2035
Gas net exports Inland gas consumption
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 16/23
The 450 Scenario:The 450 Scenario:AA roadmap from 3.5roadmap from 3.5°C to 2C to 2°C C
The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with
limiting the increase in temperature to 2°C
Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accordpledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter
© OECD/IEA 2010
:
> As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the
level of abatement pledged to 2020
> As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2° C goal hasincreased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 17/23
32
34
3638 G t
New Policies Scenario35.4 Gt
The 450 Scenario:The 450 Scenario:How do we get there now? How do we get there now?
World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario
China 32%
United States 18%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
© OECD/IEA 2010
20
22
24
26
28
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emissionabatement that is needed in 2010-2035
450 Scenario
21.7 Gt
European Union 8%India 7%
Middle East 4%
Russia 4%
Rest of world 27%
13.7 Gt
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 18/23
Achieving the 2Achieving the 2°°C goal will require rapidC goal will require rapiddecarbonisation of global energydecarbonisation of global energy
Average annual change in CO2 intensity in the 450 scenario
4%
5%
6%
A four-fold
increase needed
© OECD/IEA 2010
Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020& almost four times faster in 2020-2035
0%
1%
2%
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 19/23
A fundamental change is neededA fundamental change is neededin power generationin power generation
Share of world electricity generation by type and scenario
Additional low-carbon generation
in the 450 Scenario
Low-carbon generation in the NPS
Fossil-fuel fired eneration60%
80%
100%
© OECD/IEA 2010
Low-carbon technologies account for over three-quarters of global power generation by 2035in the 450 Scenario, a four-fold increase on today
0%
20%
40%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
in the 450 Scenario
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 20/23
… and also in transport… and also in transport
Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario
CO2 intensity in
Electric vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
& CO2 intensity of the power sector
500
600
700
e s p e r k W h
50
60
70
M i l l i o n
© OECD/IEA 2010
Plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 39% of new sales by 2035, making a big contributionto emissions abatement, thanks to a major decarbonisation of the power sector
(right axis)
0
100
200
300400
G r a m
0
10
20
3040
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 21/23
Will peak oil be a guest or theWill peak oil be a guest or the spectrespectreat the feast?at the feast?
Oil demand in the 450 Scenario
World demand in
450 Scenario
Right axis:
m b
/ d
88
92
96
100
m b
/ d
4
8
12
16
© OECD/IEA 2010
Oil demand peaks at 88 mb/d before 2020 & falls to 81 mb/d in 2035, with a plungein OECD demand more than offsetting continuing growth in non-OECD demand
-
(bunkers)Other non-OECD
India
China
OECD
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
68
72
76
80
84
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 22/23
8/8/2019 IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/iea-world-energy-outlook-2010 23/23
Summary & conclusionsSummary & conclusions
Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall wellshort of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future
Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of achieving the 2°C goal & made it less likely to happen
> Unless commitments are fully implemented by 2020, it will be all
© OECD/IEA 2010
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bringlower international prices than would otherwise be the case
Renewables are entering the mainstream, but long-term
support is needed to boost their competitiveness
Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies,
is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand