Grid Operations and Planning Report
ERCOT Board of DirectorsNovember 17, 2009,
Kent Saathoff
Content
• Summary• Summary
• September 2009 Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast
On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Out of Merit Capacity Order (OOMC) & Replacement Reserve (RPRS)
Purchases– Zonal Congestion– Significant System Incidents– Advisories, Watches and EEAs– Other ItemsOther Items
• October 2009 Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind Generation
• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity
2
Wind Capacity
ERCOT Public17 November 2009
Summary
• September 2009 Operations– The peak demand of 55,210 MW on September 3rd was less than the
forecasted peak of 56,442 MW.forecasted peak of 56,442 MW.– Day-ahead load forecast error for September was 3.68%. – Ten Advisories for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 3000
MW. Two Watches for ARR under 2500 MW. No Energy Emergency gy g yAlert (EEA) events.
– No transmission watches• October 2009 peak demand on October 8th of 49,100 MW• 222 active generation interconnect requests totaling over
77,000 MW as of October 31, 2009. Two requests and 2,000 MW fewer than September 30.
• 8,916 MW wind capacity on line October 31, 2009. 399 MW increase from September
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Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs Forecast, Resource Plan & On-line Capacity at Peak
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Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from Resource Plans, and EMMS.
Actual Wind Output w/ Curtailment Added Back Vs Wind Day-Ahead Resource Plan Based on AWS Forecast for All Hours
% of Hours with Output + Wind Curtailments >= Resource Plan MW
(Target = 80%)
66.53%
5
Note: QSEs must use AWST 80% probability of exceedence forecast for Day-Ahead Resource Plans17 November 2009 ERCOT Public
September 2009: Monthly Peak Demand: Actual
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September 2009: Monthly Minimum Demand: Actual
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Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in September 2009
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 16:00 Day AheadRun at 16:00 Day Ahead
2006MAPE
2007 MAPE
2008MAPE
2009MAPE (YTD)
September 2009MAPEMAPE MAPE MAPE MAPE (YTD) MAPE
AverageAnnual MAPE
3.79 3.55 3.30 3.20 3.68MAPE
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Capacity Purchases of RMR, OOMC & RPRS to Manage Local Congestion in September 2009
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Zonal Congestion
CSC Sept 08Days
July 09Days
Aug 09Days
Sept 09Days
Last 12Months
Total Days(Sept 08 – Sept 09)
North – Houston 6 7 4 8Sept – 13, 14, 16, 18,
20, 21, 27, 28
65
North – West 1 0 0 0 5
West – North 0 9 11 5 173Sept – 2, 8, 17, 20, 21
South – North 1 0 0 1Sept – 10
8
North - South 7 1 0 2Sept – 20, 21
43
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Significant System Incidents in September 2009
• September 1st
– Day-ahead Ancillary Service Market delayed for 15 minutes due y y yto overlapping data snapshots.
• September 14thSeptember 14– Simultaneous loss of one unit, one auto transformer and two 138
kV lines due to improper timer setting for breaker failure relaying schemescheme.
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Advisories and Watches in September 2009
• Advisories issued for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 3000 MW.– Issued 10 Days.
• Watches issued for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 2500 MW.– Issued 2 Days.y
• Transmission Watches– None
• No EEA’s in September 2009
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Other Items
• September 5th
– Held Real-time Balancing deployments for interval ending 00:15 due to entry of bad offset Resumed with interval ending 00:30due to entry of bad offset. Resumed with interval ending 00:30 deployments.
September 28th• September 28th
– Held Real-time Balancing deployments for interval ending 23:00 due to entry of bad offset. Resumed with interval ending 23:30 deploymentsdeployments.
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October 2009 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs Forecast, Resource Plan & On-line Capacity at Peak
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Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from Resource Plans, and EMMS.
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October 2009 Actual Wind Output as a Percentage of the Total Installed Wind Capacity at Peak
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Planning Summary
ERCOT is currently tracking 222 active generation interconnection requests totaling over 77,000 MW. This includes over 44,000 MW of wind generation.wind generation.
Regional Planning is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total of $1,031.70 Million
Transmission Projects approved in 2009 total $284.4 Million
All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and construction) total approximately $9.2 Billion
Transmission Projects energized in 2009 total about $416 million Transmission Projects energized in 2009 total about $416 million
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County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) October 2009
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County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) October 2009
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Wind Generation
MW
,881
,881
30
10,000
12,000
Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)Cumulative MW Installed
9,66810,246
10,797 10,797
8,005
1,1,
1,33
752
8,000
8,916
916
916
916
4,785
916
916
6,000
8,9
8,9
8,9
1 385
2,875
1,854
8,9
8,9
2,000
4,000
1,385
116 116
1,173977816
0
,
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
19
(as of October 31, 2009)
Year
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Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel
MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW CoalMW Wi d MW S l * MW Bi *
120,000 300
MW Wind MW Solar * MW Biomass *MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled
* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass" Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graph Project cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008
80,000
100,000
200
250
60,000
MW
Cap
acity
150
Proj
ect C
ount
20 000
40,000
M
50
100
P
0
20,000
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
-06
v-06 -06
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
-07
v-07 -07
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
-08
v-08 -08
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
-09
0
50
20
Jan-
Feb-
Mar
-A
pr-
May
-Ju
nJu
lA
ug-
Sep
-O
ct-
Nov
Dec
-Ja
n-Fe
b-M
ar-
Apr
-M
ay-
Jun
Jul
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-N
ovD
ec-
Jan-
Feb-
Mar
-A
pr-
May
-Ju
nJu
lA
ug-
Sep
-O
ct-
Nov
Dec
-Ja
n-Fe
b-M
ar-
Apr
-M
ay-
Jun
Jul
Aug
-S
ep-
Oct
-
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Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase
# Initial Screening Study # Screening Study Complete # in Full Study
350 120,000
# Completed Full Study # Projects Cancelled *** # Signed Interconnect Agreement# In-Service ** MW Capacity Under Study * MW In Commercial Operation **
* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.
250
300
80,000
100,000** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006
*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008
150
200
Proj
ect C
ount
60,000
MW
Cap
acity
100
P
20 000
40,000
M
0
50
n-06 -06
r-06
r-06
y-06
n-06 l-06
g-06 -06
t-06
v-06
c-06
n-07 -07
r-07
r-07
y-07
n-07 l-07
g-07 -07
t-07
v-07
c-07
n-08 -08
r-08
r-08
y-08
n-08 l-08
g-08 -08
t-08
v-08
c-08
n-09 -09
r-09
r-09
y-09
n-09 l-09
g-09 -09
t-09
0
20,000
21
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Ma r
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
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