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Global WarmingWinter Storming
Ellen E. MartinDept of Geological Sciences
Snow angelOcala , Florida, Jan. 8,
2010
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• If global warming is really happening…
• Why was this winter so cold and wet?
• Winter 2010 -second coldest winter on record in Florida
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• Need to understand:• the difference between climate
and weather• what :global warming” means
Snowstorm in Washington DC, Feb. 2010
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Climate vs. Weather• Weather
– The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place with respect to temperature, cloudiness, moisture, wind, pressure
• Climate– 30 year average of atmospheric state
(World Meteorological Organization)
– “expected weather”
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Global Warming
• A tendency for the global mean surface temperature to increase
Average:• Land and ocean• All latitudes• All seasons
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Global Mean Temperature
Mean Temperature-
Gainesville
58°F
72°F
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Measured temperature record for past ~150 yrs
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MedievalWarmth
Little Ice Age
Northern Hemisphere Temperatures for the past 1000 yrs
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Time series, Alaska
Kilimanjaro, Africa
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19791979
20002000
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Arctic Sea Ice- summer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMQ21p93JZc
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• Whether the world is getting warmer isn’t controversial
Political debate focused on whether the world is getting warmer due to:
- natural causesor- man-made greenhouse gases (the greenhouse effect)
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Centuries
Millennia
Millions of years
Zachos et al., 2001
ColderMore ice
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So, why was this winter so
cold?•El Niño
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Conditions in US during El Niño
winters
Vancouver
Vancouver
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• Global warming = climate= global
• Cold winter in southeast US = weather= local
El Nino
La Nina
Strong evidence that the global mean surface temperature of earth is increasing
Related to El Niño conditions
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Record of atmospheric CO2 from ice cores
Record of atmospheric CO2
from direct measurements
(Hawaii)
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Greenhouse Gases
IPCC 2007
Ice core data
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Ice Core CO2 RecordModern rate of increased compared to past
400 ky
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Atmosphere
Earth’s Greenhouse
(S/4)(1-)
Earth
T4
Ts = 58°F
IncomingShort wave
energy
OutgoingLong wave
energy
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Global Carbon Cycle
NASA- earthobservatory (~1990)
+3/yr
+0.5/yr
+1.5/yr
Reforestation
Deforestation
40,000,000
826
7
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CO2 by Country
Per capita2002
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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2
Kump, Kasting and Crane
Consume all fossil fuels (2300) 2100 ppmV CO2
(CCD)
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Temperature- Greenhouse Gas Correlation
NOAA/NCDC
Correlation between temperature and CO2 concentration
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Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases
IPCC 2007
Gases
Processes
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Climate System
Atmosphere
Geosphere- land
Cryosphere-ice
Hydrosphere-ocean
Biosphere- vegetation