Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global view on perspectives for
biodiesel.
Biodiesel International Conference,
FAAP Convention Center, Armando Alvares Penteado
Foundation, Sao Paulo - Brazil, 18th November 2011
André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University
Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Biomass & bioenergy
flows according to IEA
+ other refs (2008)
[IPCC-
SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
2050 Bioenergy Potentials &
Deployment Levels
2008 Global Energy Total
Chapter 2 Possible
Deployment Levels
2011 IPCC Review*
Land Use
3 and 5
million km 2
Chapter 10 Modelled
Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration
Targets
Past Literature Range of Technical Potentials 0-1500 EJ
Glo
bal
Pri
mar
y En
erg
y Su
pp
ly, E
J/y
2008 Global Biomass Energy
2050 Global Energy AR4, 2007
2050 Global Biomass AR4,
2007
<440 ppm
440-600 ppm
Technical Potential
2050 Projections
Minimum
median 75th
Maximum
100
300
150 190
80
265 300
Technical Potential Based on 2008
Model and Literature Assessment
118
20 25
25th
Percentile
2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiber as Energy Content
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global RE supply by source in Annex I
(ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in
164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050).
Thick black line = median,
Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile,
Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global primary energy supply of biomass in
164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and
2050, grouped by different categories of
atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Range of LCOE for selected commercially
available RE technologies compared to
recent non-RE costs.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Cost ranges various
current bioenergy systems.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Projected production costs estimated
for selected developing technologies
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
GHG/MJ of major modern bioenergy chains vs.
conventional fossil fuel options
Excluding
(i)LUC
effects;
these can
have
strong
impacts
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Status iLUC (an opinion) • Diverging outcomes; more sophisticated approaches; from 0.8 to later analyses: 0.3 ->
0.2. • More detailed regional studies: depends highly (Fully…) on rate of improvement in
agricultural and livestock management. • CGE: extrapolates past developments, very sensitive to input data, poor in tackling
technological change… • iLUC is a reactive concept while we actually want to be proactive in avoiding it
altogether… • defining ilUC factors has received most attention versus very limited focus on
mitigation of iLUC
[Faaij, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Driving forces, dimensions, scales…
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Lan
d a
rea (
Mh
a)
Rest
degraded land
immature palm oil
mature palm oil
permanent pastures
permanent crops w/o
palm oilarable land
grassland
shrubland and
savannahForest plantation
forest cover
LUC in Indonesia
[Wicke, et al., 2011, Land use policy]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Lan
d a
re (
Mh
a)
forest cover Forest plantation
shrubland and savannah grassland
agricultural land mature palm oil
immature palm oil degraded land
rest
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
La
nd
are
(M
ha
)
forest cover Forest plantationshrubland and savannah grasslandagricultural land mature palm oilimmature palm oil degraded landrest
Sustainability –
Past trends (improved)
LUC until 2020 Indonesia
Projection Projection
Land
area
(Mha)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Lan
d a
re (
Mh
a)
forest cover Forest plantation
shrubland and savannah grassland
agricultural land mature palm oil
immature palm oil degraded land
rest
Business as Usual –
Provincial plans (base)
[Wicke, et al., 2011
(land use policy)]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
GHG Balances and land conversion issues
Forested peatland: extremely
high emissions
Natural rainforest: high
emissions
Base case - Logged over
forest: emissions about half
of modern natural gas power
Degraded land: CO2 uptake
3372 g CO2-eq / kWh
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Ba
se
ca
se
Na
tura
l ra
in fo
rest
De
gra
de
d la
nd
Pe
atla
nd
fo
rest
Pe
atla
nd
gra
ss
Cla
us p
ow
er
pla
nt
Ave
rag
e D
utc
h
Mo
de
rn n
atu
ral g
as
Co
al
Ave
rag
e E
U
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(g
CO
2-e
q/k
Wh
CP
O)
Fossil reference electricity
production
CPO electricity
Cases
[Wicke, et al.,
Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Economic performance 2nd generation
biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock
[Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
An ultimate energ transition
machine: flex-fuel IG/synfuel/power
+CCS
Power
Pre-treatment:
- grinding
- drying
feedstock is
poplar wood
Gasification:
- air or oxygen
- pressurised or
atmospheric
- direct/indirect
Gas cleaning:
- ‘wet’ cold or
‘dry’ hot
FT liquids
Offgas
Recycle loop
FT synthesis:
- slurry reactor
or fixed bed
Gas
turbine
Gas processing:
- reforming
- shift
- CO2
removal
Major investments in China.
- No oil for transport!
- 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission.
About 50%
of carbon!
[See e.g Meerman et al. RSER, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Non commercial?
Yueyang
Sinopec-Shell
Coal gasification
project; (China)
Shell gasifier arriving
at site September 2006.
Few dozen licences in
China
Courtesy of Shell
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
GHG emissions per km
[Van Vliet et al, En Conv. & Mngt, 2009]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Direct and indirect energy use
algue production in open
(raceway) ponds
[Jonker & Faaij, Submitted for publication, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Cost breakdowns algue based biomass
(primary) for Raceway ponds and
Horizontal Tubular Systems
0
50
100
150
200
250
RWP heat RWP fuel RWP elec HTS heat HTS fuel HTS elec
To
tal
bio
en
erg
y p
rod
ucti
on
co
sts
[€/G
J] Bio-energy conversion
Harvesting
Cultivication
Total costs after reduction
[Jonker & Faaij, Submitted for publication, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Current main Shipping Lanes for
biomass and biofuels for energy
Wood Pellets
Ethanol
Palm Oil & Ag Residues
Canada
USA
W. Europe
E. Europe &
Russia
Brazil
Malaysia &
Indonesia
Japan
Arg
entina Australia S. Africa
Ethanol Wood pellets Veg. oils & biodiesel
[IEA Task 40]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global production and trade of the
major biomass commodities (2008) Mton in 2008
Bioethanol Biodiesel Wood pellets
Global production 52.9 10.6 11.5
Global net trade 3.72 (*) 2.92 Approx. 4
Main exporters Brazil US, Argentina, Indonesia Malaysia
Canada,USA, Baltic countries, Finland, Russia
Main importers USA, Japan, EU
EU Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Italy
(*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel.
Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global biodiesel trade streams
of minimum 1 PJ in 2009.
[Lamers et al., RSER, 2011.]
World biodiesel production
increased from
1.8 Mton in 2004 to
10.6 Mton in 2008.
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Not all energy storage – vehicle
combinations make sense
Vehicle Liquid fuel Hydrogen Batteries
SUVs, light trucks
Mid-sized Small cars Trucks Busses/vans Planes Ships
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
The IEA on biofuels…
IEA-ETP, 2008
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Opposing
sketches for
the scenario
preconditions,
technological
challenges,
and
impacts for
bioenergy
deployment
on long term
following
Typical
IPCC SRES.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
A future vision on global bioenergy
markets (2050…)
[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]
250 Mha = 100 EJ
= 5% ag land + pasture
= 1/3 Brazilie
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Key conclusions (I)
• Technical potential of 500 EJ/year by 2050, with large uncertainty around market and policy conditions that affect this potential.
• 100-300 EJ/year possible deployment levels by 2050. Major challenge but would contribute up to 1/3 to the world’s primary energy demand in 2050.
• Bioenergy has significant potential to mitigate greenhouse gases if resources are sustainably developed and efficient technologies are applied.
• “For the increased and sustainable use of bioenergy, proper design, implementation and monitoring of sustainability frameworks can minimize negative impacts and maximize benefits with regard to social, economic and environmental issues.”
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Key conclusions (II) • The impacts and performance of biomass production and
use are region- and site-specific.
• Key options: – E.g. sugarcane ethanol production, waste to-energy systems,
efficient cookstoves, biomass-based CHP are competitive
– Lignocellulosic-based fuels, advanced bioelectricity options, and biorefinery concepts can offer competitive deployment of bioenergy in 2020 - 2030. Bio-CCS can offer negative carbon emissions.
– Advanced biomaterials promising but less understood.
– Potential role aquatic biomass (algae) highly uncertain.
• Rapidly changing policy contexts, recent market activity, increasing support for advanced biorefineries & lignocellulosic biofuel options, and in particular the development of sustainability criteria and frameworks, push bioenergy systems and their deployment in sustainable directions.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Thanks for your attention
For more information, see:
www.bioenergytrade.org
• Detailed activities • Background information • Results • Events • Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year).
And Sciencedirect/Scopus