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Asia-Pacific passenger forecast scheduled international) 1994-2010
Passengers carried millions)
50
High
Most
likely
Low
1980
990
000
005 010
almost 49 million trans-Pacific
passengers by 2010.
In line with passenger growth
forecasts, aircraft movements
across the Pacific are expected
to increase from an estimated
97,220 in 1994 to more than
125,000 in 2000. If so, annual
aircraft movements would
increase by 4.3 per cent. By
2010 the Group forecasts that
transpacific aircraft movements
will reach 192,000.
Australian growth
Asia Pacific airlines are expected to
grow at a faster rate than the global
average.
N ITS LATEST FORECASTS,
the International Civil Avi-
ation Organization ICAO)
predicts the w orldwide air trails-
port boom w ill continue.
ICAO forecasts that total
world passenger traffic will grow
at an average rate of 5.5 per cent
per year from 1995 to 2005.
Assuming this growth, there
would be an increase of around
70 per cen t in passenger traffic
during this decade.
Statistics include internation-
al and dome stic traffic and are
measured in passenger-kilome-
tres travelled.
From 1995 to 2005,
ICAO
pre-
dicts that worldwide interna-
tional passenger traffic is likely to
grow at a rate faster than total
world traffic, with a predicted
average growth rate of 7 per cent
per annum . If this is the case, the
number of worldwide interna-
tional passengers travelling in
2005 w ill be almost double the
number w ho travelled in 1995.
Asia-Pacific
Similarly, traffic in the Asia-
Pacific market is predicted to
grow at a rate faster than the
worldwide growth rates, accord-
ing to the
ICAO Asia/Pacific Area
Traffic Forecasting G roup.
In the 7 years from 1993 to
200 0, intra Asia-Pacific passen-
ger traffic is forecast to increase
by app roximately 55 per cent, at
an annual growth of 6.4 per
cent, peaking at around 85 mil-
lion passengers in 200 0.
Similarly, the numb er of pas-
sengers travelling intra Asia-
Pacific is forecast to grow at a
rate of 6.2 per cent per year in
the decade from 200 0, with 72
million more passengers expect-
ed to travel in 2010 than in 2000.
This predicted growth follows
an increase in intra Asia-Pacific
travel of around 28.5 million
passengers from 1982 26.7 mil-
l ion passengers) to 1993 55.2
million passengers), at an aver-
age annual increase of 6.8 per
cent.
W ith forecasts based on Gross
Domestic Product
(GDP) and
yield projections, the
ICAO
Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Fore-
casting Group p redicts that, for
the period 1994 to 2000,
transpacific passenger traffic
will increase at an average 6.9
per cent a year. T his will increase
the numb er of passengers cross-
ing the P acific to 27 million in
2000.
For the decade 2000 to 2010,
the Group p redicts a somew hat
lower rate of 6.1 per cent per
annum, resulting in a forecast of
The number of revenue passen-
gers carried on international
scheduled air services to and
from Australia increased by 9.8
per cent for the year ended
October 1996 over the year
ended October 1995, according
to statistics produced by the
Department of Transport and
Regional Development.
Sydney s Kingsford Smith
Airport accounted for almost 49
per cent of the total interna-
tional passenger traffic through
Australian airports for the year
to October 1996, followed by
Melbourne with 16.5 p er cent,
Brisbane with 16.4 per cent,
Perth with 9.8 per cent and
Cairns with 5.5 pe r cent.
Copies of these reports can be
purchased from
AVSTATS
in the
Department of Transport and
Regional Development, phone
06 274 7720, fax 06 274 7727.
Joanne Nelson is a commu nications
officer with CASA
8 FLIGHT SAFETY AUSTRALIA AUTUM N 1997