Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives

Andrew Herdman

Director General

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

17-18 November 2015 Hong Kong

Aviation: moving the world

• Air travel delivers global mobility

• Over 3 billion passengers

• 9 million per day

• Carries 35% by value of global trade

• Goods worth US$6.4 trillion

• Wider social and economic benefits

• Outstanding safety record

• Committed to sustainable growth

Source: ATAG

Asia Pacific

• Diverse geographic region

• Home to 4 billion people

• 56% of world population

• Generates 31% of global GDP

• Wide range of income levels, strong growth in

middle class spending

• Dynamic economies still driving global growth

• Political diversity remains challenging: need for

multilateral cooperation

• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor

to economic and social development

Source: IMF 2015

Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12

US$176 billion revenue

US$1 billion net loss

1,106 million passengers

791 million domestic

315 million international

20 million tonnes of cargo

6,284 aircraft

Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:

31% of global passenger traffic

38% of global cargo traffic

Asia Pacific Aviation 2014

Data: Financials & Traffic: 2014

Still a two-speed global economy

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2015

Comparison of year-on-year GDP growth

History Forecast

Global economic growth:

2014: 3.4%

2015: 3.1%

2016: 3.6%

Global passenger and cargo traffic

• Robust growth in passenger demand

• Air cargo markets remain fragile

• Inter-dependent supply: belly & freighter

Source: IATA

Added Cargo Capacity

• Belly space follows passenger growth

• Diminished requirement for freighters Source: IATA

Air Cargo Load Factor Trend

• Low utilization reflects directional flows and

superfluous belly space

• Capacity growth exceeds actual growth in demand

Source: IATA

Impact of lower oil prices

Source: US EIA

Jet fuel prices averaging $67 per barrel

compared to $113 last year … reflecting

plentiful supply

Global airline industry profitability

Stronger financial performance driven by robust

passenger demand and significant drop in fuel

prices, but cargo performance still weak

Source: IATA

Long term demand for freighters

Source: Airbus GMF 2015

Belly space gains share, but

demand for freighters still grows

Long term demand for freighters

Source: Airbus GMF 2015

Asia Pacific freighter

fleet growth

Emerging markets growing middle class

Source: Airbus GMF 2015-2034

Changing global spending patterns

Share of total world private consumption (%)

Source: Airbus GMF 2015-2034

Air Cargo Industry Priorities

• Air cargo revenues ~ $60 billion

• Contributes ~ 9% of overall airline revenues

• Equivalent to 1% fee on value of goods transported

Source: IATA Cargo Strategy 2015

www.aapairlines.org

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

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Tel: +60 3 2162 1888

Fax: +60 3 2162 6888

twitter: @aapairlines

Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives

Andrew Herdman

Director General

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

17-18 November 2015 Hong Kong