Download - GDOT PowerPoint Template - 2015
2015 GDOT PowerPoint
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Cartersville MPO Regional
Travel Demand Model 2015 Update
Joint Policy Committee (PC) and Technical Coordinating Committee (TCC)
Meeting
May 20, 2015
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BACKGROUND
• Federal legislation requires Long-Range
Transportation Plan (LRTP) updates every five
years
• The LRTP covers a minimum 20-year planning
horizon with fiscal constraint
• The next LRTP must be adopted on or before
March 26, 2016
• Cartersville MPO needs to provide projects to
Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) for Air
Quality Analysis by the end of August, 2015
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BACKGROUND
• MAP-21 - Moving Ahead for Progress in the
21st Century • LRTP requirements are similar to SAFETEA-LU
• More focused on performance-based approach
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What is a Travel Demand Model
and its Purpose?
State-of-
the-art
analysis
tool used
in the
transpor-
tation
planning
process
Model Outputs
Transportation network with forecasted volumes and other metrics
Identify deficiencies and prioritize projects
Travel Demand Model
1. Trip Generation – How Many Trips?
2. Trip Distribution – Where are they going?
3. Mode Choice – What mode are they using?
4. Trip Assignment – What route will they use?
Model Inputs
Transportation Network Characteristics Socioeconomic Data
1 2 3 Origin Destination
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Travel Demand Model (TDM)
Application
• Future traffic will be mainly driven by the future
socioeconomic data provided by MPO
• TDM will provide general guidance on where
the volume is exceeding the capacity and help
to identify roadway deficiencies
• Is not sufficient to determine/confirm the logical
termini, which requires additional information
like traffic counts, sub-area validation and
assessment of environmental impacts.
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Cartersville Modeling and MPO Boundary
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Updates on Major Activities
Preparation of socioeconomic data (MPO)
Development and validation of Base Year 2010 Model
Development of 2040 Do-Nothing Scenario (Projects provided by MPO)
System performance evaluation
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2010 Model Inputs
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2010 Highway Network
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• Model network includes roadways that are classified as “Collector” or above;
• Only local roads that provide regional connectivity or have impact to major routes are selected to be included in the model network.
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Socioeconomic Data for Bartow County - Provided by MPO Staff
99,167
32,749 35,781
25,374
169,865
46,435
64,165
43,429
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Total Population Total Employment Total Household School Enrollment
2010 2040
71%
42% 79% 71%
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Base Year 2010 Model Validation
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* HBW: Home-based Work * HBS: Home-based Shopping
* HBO: Home-based Other * NHB: Non Home-based
* P/A Ratio: Production to attraction ratio
Source:
(1) GDOT General Summary of Recommended Travel Demand Model Development Procedures for Consultants, MPOs and Modelers, May 2013
Calibration Measure Target Range / Value (1)
Model Results Min Max
Socioeconomic Data
Persons / Household 2 4 2.8
Workers / Household 1 3 0.9
School / Population 0.2 0.2 0.26
Trip Generation
Person Trips Per Household 8.5 9.2 8.9
Person Trips Per Person 3 4 3.2
HBW Trips / Employee 0 2 1.9
Shopping Trips / Retail Employment 5.0
P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBW) 0.9 1.1 1.0
P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBO) 0.9 1.1 1.0
P/A Ratio Before Balancing (HBShop) 0.9 1.1 1.0
P/A Ratio Before Balancing (NHB) 0.9 1.1 1.0
2010 Model Validation Trip Generation
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2010 Model Validation Model Highway Mileage
& Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by Facility Type
(1) 2010 GDOT VMT – GDOT Mileage by Route and Road System Report 445.
http://dot.ga.gov/informationcenter/statistics/RoadData/Documents/445/DPP445_2010.pdf
Functional Classification
Mileage
(miles)
VMT
(000,miles) VMT Distribution
VMT Comparison
(Model vs. Observed)
Observed (1) Model Observed (1) Model Observed (1) Model Difference
(000,miles) %
Interstate/Freeway 30 30 2,166 2,125 51.1% 50.8% -41 -2%
Principal Arterial 49 48 846 791 20.0% 18.9% -55 -7%
Minor Arterial 111 108 834 834 19.7% 19.9% 0 0%
Collectors 146 149 389 435 9.2% 10.4% 46 12%
Total 336 336 4,235 4,185 100% 100% -50 -1.2%
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Base Year 2010 Model Outputs
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2010 Total Daily Modeled Traffic Volumes
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Level of Service (LOS)
• Based on Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010
methodology
• LOS was derived using the Travel Demand Model
• LOS compares volumes along the roadway to the
capacity of that roadway
LOS F LOS E LOS D LOS C LOS B LOS A
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2010 Daily Level of Service (LOS) Based on Modeled Volume
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Future Year 2040 Model Results
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2040 Do-Nothing Project List
Project ID Primary County
Description Primary Work
Type Existing
Lane Proposed
Lane Length (Miles)
0002626 BARTOW SR 3/US 41 AND SR 61/US 411 INTERCHANGE RECONSTRUCTION Interchange 2 4 1
0008965 BARTOW SR 20 WB FM MP 20.24 TO MP 21.86 Passing Lanes 2 3 1.62
621350- BARTOW SR 20 FM I-75 TO SR 61/US 411 PART RELOCATION Widening 2 4 2.2
621440- BARTOW SR 113 FM CR 31 TO RICHLAND CREEK @ OLD ALA RD RELOC -PH III Widening 2 4 2.9
621445-* BARTOW SR 113 @ RACCOON CREEK Bridges 2 4 0.05
621760-* BARTOW SR 113 @ RICHLAND CREEK Bridges 2 4 1.2
MPO-1 BARTOW Burnt Hickory Road extension from Widgeon Way to US 411 at Shaw Ind. New Construction 0 2 1.3
Project ID Primary County
Description Reasons why they are not included
0003450 BARTOW CR 232/ IRON BELT RD @ NANCY CREEK 3.3 MI NW OF CARTERSVILLE Bridges (Non-capacity expansion)
0008960 BARTOW CR 633/GLADE RD FM CR 705/CATFISH COURT TO CR 389/SUGAR HILL Intersection Improvement
0008980 BARTOW CS 510/PUBLIC SQUARE FROM MAIN ST TO WOOD ST - PHASE IV TE-Bike/Ped Facility
0009412 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 13 CR LOCS IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings
0009424 BARTOW BARTOW COUNTY ARRA C230 RESURFACING PROGRAM Resurface & Maintenance
0009690 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 16 LOC IN BARTOW CO - PH II Pavement Markings
0010035 BARTOW SR 3 @ PUMKINVINE CREEK - EMERGENCY PROJ - BARTOW-1 Emergency Repairs
0010189 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 21 CS LOC IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings
0010377 BARTOW CS 1010/BURNT HICKORY ROAD @ CSX #918560W RRX Warning Device
0010378 BARTOW CR 628/EUHARLEE ROAD @ CSX #639332N RRX Warning Device
0011834 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 9 CR LOCS IN BARTOW COUNTY Pavement Markings
0011839 BARTOW OFF-SYSTEM SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS @ 10 CS LOCS IN CARTERSVILLE Signing
Major capacity projects that are provided by MPO Staff:
(Includes Federal, State and Local projects)
Projects that are not included:
* Project included as it is within the limits of Project # 621440-
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2040 Total Daily Modeled Traffic Volumes
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2040 Do-Nothing Daily Level of Service (LOS)
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Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
by Facility Type
Functional Classification
2010 MPO Area VMT (Vehicle Miles)
2040 Do-Nothing MPO Area VMT (Vehicle Miles) Percent Change
Freeway 2,124,851 2,811,829 + 32%
Principal Arterial 790,878 1,132,862 + 43%
Minor Arterial 833,616 1,263,130 + 52%
Collectors 435,228 832,629 + 91%
Total 4,184,573 6,040,450 + 44%
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Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
by Level of Service
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 Model VMT 2040 Do-Nothing Model VMT
LOS C or Better LOS D LOS E LOS F
20.7%
75.7%
18.5%
3.2%
0.4% 27.2%
10.3%
44.0%
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Daily Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT)
by Facility Type
Functional Classification
2010 MPO Area VHT
(Vehicle Hours)
2040 Do-Nothing MPO Area VHT (Vehicle Hours) Percent Change
Freeway 44,944 95,907 + 113%
Principal Arterial 22,662 51,429 + 127%
Minor Arterial 26,474 64,588 + 144%
Collectors 12,388 32,798 + 165%
Total 106,468 244,722 + 130%
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Next Steps
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Next Steps
• MPO
• Provide project lists for future year LRTP
Scenarios
• GDOT
• Evaluate remaining future year LRTP
Scenarios upon receiving project lists
• Provide level of service (LOS) maps to MPO
planners to prioritize projects
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2040 LRTP Scenarios
• 2nd network: Do-Nothing (completed)
• 3rd network: Existing + Committed (E+C)
• 4th network: Completion of STIP and CWP
projects
• 5th Network*: STIP/TIP + Remainder of system
projects prior to long range
• 6th Network*: Long Range Transportation Plan
system projects
• 7th network: Financially Constrained Plan
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* Note: Removed per direction provided by 2/18/15 email from Tom Sills
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