Future of WorkThe People Imperative
Josh Bersin
Founder, Bersin by Deloitte
Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
October, 2017
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Is the Fear and Hype True?
47% of today’s jobs will be gone in 10 years
41% of US workforce participates in crowd/gig economy
Essentially all the “new jobs” created since 2008 fall into
the category of “alternative work.”
Oxford Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research, and
Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Robots are Here TodayAverage cost below $25,000.
China purchased 250,000 in 2016.
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Businesses Are Adapting Quickly
• 41% of companies have fully implemented or
have made significant progress in adopting
cognitive, AI and Robotics
• 77% of these companies believe technology is
creating “better jobs”, and only 20% see job
reductions
• 50% are retraining workers to work side by
side with machines
• 67% of employees believe they must
continuously reskill themselves to stay in their
career, and 58% believe they will have a new
career within five years
Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2017
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Increased Need for Social, Integrative, and Hybrid Skills
Talent for survival Essential skills for humans working in the
machine age, Deloitte UK, 2016
Skills map, David Deming, Harvard University, 1980-2012, “Catch
the Wave,” Deloitte University Press, Josh Bersin, 2017
Job Capabilities For
the Future
• Empathy
• Communication
• Close vision
• Speaking
• Interpreting data
• Judgement
• Social skills
• Integrated thinking
• Design
• Hybrid jobs
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Driving A Need for More Human Skills
Shift to a service and IP-based economy
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
Today’s New
World of Work
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.Sources: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2014 and 2015
Employees are Overwhelmed
The “average” US worker now
spends 25% of their day reading
or answering emails
Fewer than 16% of companies have
a program to “simplify work” or help
employees deal with stress.
More than 80% of all companies
rate their business “highly complex”
or “complex” for employees.
The average mobile phone user
checks their device 150 times a
day.
The “average” US worker works
47 hours and 49% work 50 hours
or more per week, with 20% at
60+ hours per week
40% of the US population believes
it is impossible to succeed at work
and have a balanced family life.
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• Since 2000, US workers lost an entire week of
vacation, dropping average vacation days from
20.3 to 16.8
• Americans left 662 million unused vacation
days forfeiting $66 billion in benefits
• 39% “want to be seen as a work martyr” to
their boss, yet these over-workers are less likely
to receive a promotion or raise than their peers.
We Are Working More Hours: A Vacation Crisis
https://www.projecttimeoff.com/state-american-vacation-2017
35% of Millennial
women feel guilty
about taking time off(25% of men)
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Productivity is suffering—is technology helping?
US, UK, Canadian Productivity Lag
1 billion
smartphonesi-Phone
launched
100 million
Twitter users
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Cost of Stress at Work: $300 Billion per Year
According to CDC Research in 2016, 40% of US
and UK workers believe they have very stressful jobs,
resulting in accidents, fatigue, nervousness,
and lack of energy. This translates to $300B spent
on employee wellness, healthcare, and absence
costs every year
http://safetymanagement.eku.edu/resources/infographics/work-related-stress-on-employees-health/
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Workplace Culture Trend: Wellbeing
Google Trends Search for Wellbeing since 2004
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Average
3.2
What are these
companies doing?
Engagement Remains a Challenge
Summer, 2016 Glassdoor Bersin by Deloitte Research
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50% of Millennials will
live to age of 100, expect
10-12 jobs by age of 38
Half-life of technical skills is
approximately 2 years
37% of working people
believe they will change
careers within 5 years
Change in the nature of a Career
Only 29% of companies
believe careers in their
company are 10 years+,
44% say less than five
years
83% of companies believe
they will have “open careers”
within 3 years, only 19%
have structured careers
Life expectancy of Fortune
1000 firm is less than 15
years, S&P 500 firm is five
years
Source: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2017, GitHub, World Economic Forum, Bersin Career Research
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Career Models Are In Disruption
58% of companies are
redesigning or planning to
redesign their career modelDeloitte HC Trends 2017
83% of companies expect to
have an “open” or “highly
flexible” career model within
the next 3-5 yearsDeloitte HC Trends 2017
Only 19% of companies
promote vertical career
moves, 67% now promote
horizontal or project based
career progression
31% of companies expect
careers to be 3-5 years long
60% expect them to be 10
years or less
Learning and career
management software has
become the #1 fastest growing
segment in HR technology (CedarCrestone 2017)
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Millennial Expectations Have Changed Work
80% want to give
performance appraisals
to the boss
60% think
7 months
of tenure means
they’re “loyal”
2/3 want to be “creative”
at work in their job
Their “team mates” are
the most important
people at work
Expect feedback weekly
and progression
annually
Deloitte Millennial Survey, n=70,000, Spring 2016
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Millennials: Citizenship On The Rise
Millennials Are Concerned about A
Threatening and Unfair World
• 64% expect economic and political conditions to get worse
in the coming two years
• In mature markets, only 64 percent of millennials predict
they will be financially worse off than their parents and
69% say they’ll be less happier.
• As a result, 77% of Millennials actively take part in
volunteerism and charity work to help their community
• 88% of Millennials believe business can be a major
force for positive social change
18
So what’s going on?
The Future of Work is all about People
5 Keys to Success
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Companies are transforming themselves
Networks of teams
Focus on culture and employee experience
Learning and personal reinvention
Redefining “career”
Design thinking in jobs and work
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Embrace the New Organization:
a network of teams
1
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Shared values and culture
Transparent goals and
projects
Free flow of information
and feedback
People rewarded for
their skills and abilities,
not position
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
A network of teams
B
A
DCF
A
C D E
B
G
How things were How things “are” How things work
E
Source?????????
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Moving to the New Organization Model
Projects, Squads,
Teams, Shared Services
Hierarchical Business
FunctionsOrganization Structure:
Teams assemble and
stop quickly
Teams formed slowly
over timeTeams and Projects:
Assignments, tasks,
expert roles
Job descriptions, job
levels, job titlesJobs and Roles:
Managers manage
projects and “sponsor”
people
Managers “own” teams
and people’s careersManagers:
Jobs open in transparent
marketplace
Jobs are “owned” by the
manager and not sharedCareers:
People sought out based
on skills, work on
multiple projects
People “assigned” jobs
by managementFlexibility and Space:
People rewarded by
outcomes, reputation,
sponsorship
People rewarded by level,
tenure, experienceRewards:
Today Future
Citizenship, Collective
Thinking, Shared Values
Inclusion, Sustainability,
DiversityCulture:
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23
Culture, purpose, and inclusion
as business strategy
2
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Source: Firms of Endearment, by R. Sisodia, D. Wolf, and J. Sheth (2007)
89% of companies,
rate culture as an
urgent issue
yet only 14% really
know what “good
culture” looks like
Companies with a strong mission
and purpose outperformed the
S&P 500 by 8-fold over a 20 year
period.
These companies performed 4x
higher than “Good to Great”
companies.
Culture As Business Strategy
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Culture, value, leadership, and career (The Big Four)
What matters to employees
0.00
0.12
0.13
0.22
0.28
0.30
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
Year founded (age)
Compensation & benefits
Work life balance
Career opportunities
Senior leadership
Culture and values
Correlation of employment factors to Glassdoor recommendations as place to work
Culture and leadership are 3X more important
than salary in your employment brand.
Career development and learning are almost
2X more important than comp, benefits,
and work environment.Source?????????
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Factors that link culture and engagement
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Bersin by Deloitte Engagement Model
The Simply Irresistible Organization®
Meaningful
Work
Hands-On
Management
Positive Work
Environment
Growth
Opportunity
Trust in
Leadership
Autonomy Clear transparent goals Flexible, humane work
environment
Facilitated talent mobility Mission and purpose
Selection to Fit Coaching & feedback Recognition rich culture Career growth in many
paths
Investment in people, trust
Small Teams Leadership Development Open flexible workspace Self and formal
development
Transparency and
communication
Time for Slack Modern Performance
Management
Inclusive, diverse culture High impact learning
culture
Inspiration
Collaboration and Connection
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Flexible, Open, Modern Work Environments
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Employee Experience: Beyond Engagement Surveys
believe their internal
processes for
collaboration and
decision making are
working well
believe their employees
are fully aligned with the
corporate purpose
23%
14%
are excellent at building
a differentiated employee
experience
22%
are using design
thinking as part of
crafting the employee
experience
10%
79%Very important or
important
Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2017
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Why Feedback is Critical
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The Listening Organization
Enterprise Feedback Architecture
Integrated
Reporting & Analytics
Sentiment Analysis
Network Analysis
Social Media
Monitoring
Job Boards
& AdsEmployment
Brand
Customer
Satisfaction
Anonymous
Feedback Tools
Pulse Surveys
Annual
Survey
Performance
Check-ins
Exit
InterviewsPerformance
Appraisals
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Feedback = Performance at Deloitte
1. I am really enthusiastic about the mission of the firm
2. At work, I clearly know what is expected of me
3. In my team, I am surrounded by people who share my values
4. At work, I have the chance to use my strengths every day
5. My teammates have my back
6. I know I will be recognized for excellent work
7. I have great confidence in the firm’s future
8. In my work, I am always challenged to grow
Bottom Quartile
Middle Quartile
Top Quartile
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4.4
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
Pulse Survey items
Questions that Predict High Performance at Deloitte
Source: Deloitte pilots FYs14-15
Questions © Marcus Buckingham Company.
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Workplace Culture Trends: Diversity
Google Trends Search for Diversity & Inclusion since 2004
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Essential Talent ActivitiesStandalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices
Level 1
Critical Talent GrowthCritical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance
Level 2
Managed Talent RelationshipsWorkforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated
into talent strategy
Level 3
Inclusive Talent SystemTalent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture
Level 4
Bers
in b
y D
elo
itte
10%
19%
59%
12%
The New Bersin by Deloitte Talent Management Maturity Model
Source: Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, 2015.
Inclusive Talent Practices Drive Financial Results
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Embrace and invest in learning
and personal reinvention
3
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“Over 300 years of economic history,
the principal and most enduring
mechanism for distribution of wealth
and reduction in inequality is the
diffusion of skills and knowledge.”
10. L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
The learning curve is the earning curve
Source: Meet the Modern Learner: Engaging the Overwhelmed, Distracted, and Impatient Employee, Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP
So the Reality of Learning Today:24 Minutes A Week
24 minutes a
week
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75%
of the workforce will be made up of
Millennials by 2025, and 45% tell us
they get no leadership development
at all.
45%of North American survey
respondents think their current skills
will be inadequate in three years
SOURCE: A New Model for Corporate Learning, by Karie Willyerd, Alwin Grünwald, Kerry Brown, Bernd Welz, and Polly Traylor
of global survey respondents think
their companies are not giving them
opportunities to develop59%
The Net-Promoter
Score of L&D
rated by non HR
professionals is
-8!
- Bersin HILO 2017
L&D Is Demand Increasing
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We are here
E-Learning
& Blended
Evolution of L&D Has Been Blindingly FastFrom E-Learning to Digital Learning In One Generation
1998-2002 2005 20172010
Self-Study
Online Learning
Course Catalog
Online University
2020
Intelligent
Learning
Inte
lligen
t, Pers
on
aliz
ed
,
Mach
ine
Driv
en
Instructional Design
Kirkpatrick
LMS as
E-Learning Platform
Talent
Management
Career Focused
Lots of Topics
Learning Path
Career Track
Blended Learning
Social Learning
LMS as Talent
Platform
Digital
Learning
Everyone, All the Time,
Everywhere
Micro-Learning
Real-time Video
Courses Everywhere
Design Thinking
Learning Experience
LMS invisible
Data Driven, Mobile
Continuous
Learning
Learning On Demand
Embedded Learning
Video, Self-Authored
Mobile, YouTube
70-20-10
Taxonomies
LMS as Experience
Platform
Formats
Philosophy
Users
Systems
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Training is key to Millennial engagement
Millennials rate development the #1 job benefit
6%
6%
8%
14%
19%
22%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Greater vacation allowance
Retirement funding
Free private healthcare
Cash bonuses
Flexible working hours
Training and development
Millennials in the workforceFor Millennials, “Training and development” is the most coveted job benefit
Source: KPCB
Percent indicating job benefit in first place
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A Simple Model To Consider
Micro-Learning Macro-Learning
I need help now. I want to learn something new.
• 2 minutes or less
• Topic or problem based
• Search by asking a question
• Video or text
• Indexed and searchable
• Content rated for quality and utility
• Several hours or days
• Definitions, concepts, principles, and practice
• Exercises graded by others
• People to talk with, learn from
• Coaching and support needed
Is the content useful and accurate? Is the author authoritative and educational?
Videos, articles, code samples, tools Courses, classes, MOOCs, programs
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How Do We Redesign Learning For Work?
New on the Job Seasoned Expert
Pace o
f L
earn
ing
Normal
Great
Bad Macro
MacroMicro
Micro
Micro
Micro
Micro
Credential
Coach
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
2%
17%
33% 34%
14%
2% 0%3%
56%
39%
We are reactive /tactical / Our purpose
isto simply fulfill.
2 3 4 We are proactive /strategic / Our
purposeis to act as business
partner.
Overall % HILO %
Proof: Bersin High-Impact Learning Organization Research
How do you think your leadership
perceives your learning organization?
In our 2008 and 2011 High-Impact Learning Organization Research
“HILOs” profits grew 3X faster than the rest of the orgs studied.
How Well is L&D Aligned With Business?
Bersin by Deloitte High-Impact Learning Organization Study, 2014
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Get Ready to Hack the Career
4
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The 100 Year Life (And 70 Year Career)
“Since 1840 there has
been an increase in life
expectancy of three
months for every year.”
Gratton, Lynda; Scott, Andrew.
The 100-Year Life
Today’s
Millennials have a
50% chance of
living to 100+
Increase in Life Expectancy Over Timehttp://www.mortality.org/
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How Life Has ChangedThe Three Boxes of Life,” By Dick Bowles
Ed
uc
ati
on
Wo
rk
Reti
rem
en
t
Education
Work
Leisure
From To
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Are We Ready For The “Open Career?” It’s here.
43% of companies tell us that
careers in their companies are
now 5 years or less
69% of companies are actively
restructuring or recently
changed their career models
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Open job descriptions,
levels, and job demands
Job assessments online
for self-assessment and
development
Career explorer tools
available for all
employees
All external positions
are posted internally
Internal candidates
given fair or preference
to external
All jobs defined
around similar
competency model
Enable Job Seeking
Professional career
counselors in HR
Career Resource
Center available
“Career Advisor” or
“sponsor” separate
from manager
Active mentoring
program with internal
and external mentors
Provide Career Advice
Clear and agile goal
setting
Managers rewarded for
“talent production” not only
“talent consumption”
Managers measured by
engagement and
progression of team
Managers rewarded for
coaching and
development
Change Management Culture
Wide variety of online
learning for technical,
professional, and
managerial growth
Apprenticeship model
adopted internally
Development includes
industry, company, and
functional training
“HIPO” programs are
not sacrosanct as the
only way to get ahead
Learning funded and
valued by top
management
Professional Ladder
separate from
Management Ladder
Mentoring is valued,
institutionalized, rewarded,
and mentor development
programs exist
Social and video
sharing tools are used
for learning
Deliver L&D Support
Design thinking about
lifecycle of employee in a
role for first 2 years
Onboarding and
performance support
valued part of manager and
L&D role
PM process focuses on
development and coaching
Multi-year management or
career development
programs exist and are
honored
Support Job Transition
Cross functional
projects are valued as
development
Line / Staff / Line / Staff
transitions are valued
and managed carefully
“Job rotation”
programs into and out
of functions are valued
Specialist roles are
valued, rewarded,
celebrated
Storytelling celebrating
career paths of varied
types
Tolerance of failure
without blaming the
people
Return guaranteed
for risky
assignments
Network building
rewarded for
progression and
leadership
Rewards for New
Assignments and
stretch assignments
Inclusive culture
enables anyone to take
any job
Making mistakes is
valued as learning and
discussed openly
Tolerance of staff who
are “incompetent” and
new at job
Promotions and Salary
Increases for Non-
Management Jobs
Meritocracy as culture
of reward and growth
Re-engineer Culture and Rewards
Open Career Management Demands An Enterprise Wide Focus
Six Keys to Open Career Success Today
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21st Century Careers: Surfing the Wave
49
“You can’t stop the
waves, but you can
learn to surf.”
Pick a great beach
which is safe and
pleasant
Paddle out
patiently and find a
good spot
Ride the wave until
it slows and comes
to shore
Peak the wave
when its at its crest
Enjoy the ride and
accelerate at the
top
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Apply Design Thinking
to redesign jobs, work, and leadership
5
The employee experience
Is the customer experience
51
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Many Skills are Essentially Human
There will be more jobs at the “Human Like” end of
the spectrum.
Skills and abilities like listening, oral expression,
interpreting feelings, coordination, managing time,
and social perceptiveness are essentially human.
“We should embrace robots, not fear them.”
- Andrew McAfee, MIT
“Technology is the great job-creating machine.” –
David Autor, MIT
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How We Used To Create Jobs
People Work
Job
Design
Organization
Design
Job
Description
Job Requisition
Education,
Credentials,
Experience,Skills
Testing
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How We Will Create Jobs: New Job Architecture
People Work
Teams,
Squads,
Tribes
Tasks,
Projects,
Activities
Job Requisition
Experiences,
Knowledge, Culture,
Connections
Machines & Tools
Capability
TeamsCapability
Teams
Capability
Teams
Self, Video,
Human, Machine
Assessment
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New Breed of Leaders
Digital DNALike human DNA, Digital DNA carries the 23
underlying instructions, development,
functioning, and replication for being “digital’.
These are expressed as digital traits and
characteristics. They are present in all areas
of the organization: business models,
operating models, customer interaction,
organization structure, talent, technology,
cyber-security, culture, etc.
There are four levels of Digital Maturity:
Exploring, Doing, Becoming, and Being.
© Deloitte Consulting LLP
Real Time & On-Demand
Fluidity
Constant Disruption
Changing Mix of Traditional & Non-traditional Stakeholders
Continuously Innovating
Modulating Risk & Security Boundaries
Morphing Team Structures
Intentionally Collaborative
Multi-Modal Operations
Continuous Ecosystem Disruption
Iterative
Changing Nature and Typology of Work
Constantly Changing Decision Criteria
Ongoing Shifts in Decision Rights and Power
Geography Agnostic
Uneven Velocity between Digital & Legacy
Dynamic Skill Requirements
Increased Customer Involvement
Productive Mobility (non-traditional workspace options)
Flattening and Changing Hierarchy
Agility
Fail Early, Fail Fast, Learn Faster
Democratizing Information
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CEO’s May Not Understand This Issue
67% of CEOs responding to a recent Korn Ferry
study believe that technology will create more
value than human capital.
44% of leaders in large global businesses believe
that the prevalence of robotics, automation, and
ATI will make people “largely irrelevant” in the
future of work.
And, to make it worse, “46% say they do not
know how to measure workforce performance.”
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Teams, Skills, Culture,
Leadership, and Design
Empathy, creativity, and human skills are more
important than ever…
Our job is to design our organizations and
jobs to empower people and the customer
experience.
57
The Future of Work is Here, And Its All About People
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of-
work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506