Economic Outlook
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistMay 21, 2020
Economic Outlook 2
U.S. Review
Economic Outlook
Quantifying theContraction
There were few obvious imbalances prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, which should help prevent the healthcare and economic crisis from becoming a financial crisis. The massive loss of income and wealth will take a heavy toll.
Notable Impacts
With the leisure & hospitality industry abruptly shut down, layoffs have soared. Job losses extend will beyond the hospitality sector, however, and unemployment is likely to spike to 20% + over the new few months.
What Kind of Recovery?
The abrupt shutdown of economic activity combined with the absence of imbalances in the most cyclical parts of the economy has given rise to hopes of a V-shaped recovery. We expect to see a “bouncing” swoosh.
Real Estate
Shutdowns implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19 wiped out economic growth in Q1 and led to massive output and employment declines in Q2. Efforts to re-open the economy are progressing slowly.
Commercial construction was fairly restrained this past decade. Most product groups were well balanced prior to the shutdown. Weaker household balance sheets and tenant creditworthiness will test apartments and retail.
Economic Outlook 33
Cases
Much of the world is now ‘re-opening.’
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities
Log ScaleLinear Scale
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-21 Feb-14 Mar-09 Apr-02 Apr-26
Global Coronavirus Confirmed CasesMillions
Confirmed Cases: May-18 @ 4,771,938
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Global Coronavirus Confirmed Cases
Confirmed Cases: May-18 @ 4,771,938
3
Economic Outlook 4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 May-20
Initial Jobless ClaimsMillions, Seasonally Adjusted
Initial Claims: May-09 @ 3.0M
Jobless Claims
33 million people have filed unemployment claims, over the past seven weeks, about 20% of
the workforce.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 5
Employment
20.5 millions jobs were lost in April.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 6
Employment
Every sector lost jobs, with leisure & hospitality hit the
hardest.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 7
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rate: Apr @ 14.7%
Unemployment
The BLS estimated the true unemployment rate is near 20%.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 8
Temporary Layoffs
Of the 20M job losses, 18M were classified as ‘temporary’.
This will likely prove too optimistic, however.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 9
Small Business
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index plunged in
March and April.
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
NFIB Small Business OptimismOverall Index 1986 = 100
Small Business Optimism: Apr @ 90.9
Economic Outlook 1010
Small Business
Most small businesses report only being able to last for a couple months under current conditions.
Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<1 Month 1-2 Months 3-4 Months 5-6 Months 7-12 Months >12 Months
How Long Can You Operate Under Current Conditions?NFIB Survey of Small Businesses, March 30
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No Impact Negatively Positively
Has COVID-19 Impacted Your Business?NFIB Surveys of Small Businesses
10-Mar 20-Mar 30-Mar
10
Economic Outlook 1111
Small Business Loans
The initial $349 billion in PPP loans was exhausted quickly. Congress has added $321 billion more.
Source: Small Business Association and Wells Fargo Securities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
>$5M
$2M-$5M
$1M-$2M
$350K-$1M
$150K-$350K
<$150K
PPP Loans Approved by Loan Size% of Number of Loans
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
>$5M
$2M-$5M
$1M-$2M
$350K-$1M
$150K-$350K
<$150K
PPP Loans Approved by Loan Size% of Total Dollars Approved
11
Economic Outlook 1212
Economic Growth
The sudden stop in economic activity is difficult to quantify. First-order effects include supply chain disruptions and demand destruction emanating from massive shutdowns throughout the
economy. Second-order effects will emanate from the financial disorder and weakening of corporate, household and public sector credit. Restarting growth may prove problematic.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
Personal ConsumptionGDP
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ -4.8%GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.3%
Forecast
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ -7.6%PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.4%
Forecast
12
Economic Outlook 13
Consumer Spending
Retail sales fell the most on record.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 14
Industrial Output
As did manufacturing output.
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 15
2007 to Present
1960
1969
1973
1980 1981
19902001
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nonresidential Structures InvestmentPercent Change Since Start of Each Recession
Years Since Each Recession Began
CRE Investment
Overall building has remained relatively subdued this cycle.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 16
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Completions as Percent of Inventory
Apartment Completions: Q1 @ 2.2%Office Completions: Q1 @ 0.7%Retail Completions: Q1 @ 0.4%Industrial Completions: Q1 @ 1.5%
CRE
Apartment had been seeing the most new construction.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 17
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
CRE Vacancy Rates
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 6.6%Office Vacany Rate: Q1 @ 9.9%Retail Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 4.7%Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 5.4%
CRE
Vacancy rates are likely to climb.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 18
Apartment
The number of multifamily units currently under construction
will lead to an avalanche of new supply later this year and in
early 2021.
We expect an abrupt slowing in multifamily starts later this year
and in 2021.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
0
30
60
90
120
150
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Apartment Supply & DemandVacancy Rate; Thousands of Units
Apartment Net Completions: Q1 @ 108.3K (Right Axis)Apartment Net Absorption: Q1 @ 65.4K (Right Axis)Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 6.6% (Left Axis)
Economic Outlook 19
Apartment
Rents have already begun to decline, particularly in markets that were previously the hottest.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Apartment Effective Rent Growth
Quarter-Over-Quarter: Q1 @ 0.5% (Right Axis)Year-Over-Year: Q1 @ 2.7% (Left Axis)
Economic Outlook
WY
WV
WI
WA
VA
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
PA
OR
OK
OH
NY
NV
NM
NE
ND
NC
MT
MS
MO
MN
MI
ME
LA
KYKS
INIL
ID
IA
GA
FL
COCA
AZ AR
AL
0.2
-0.7
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.7
1.3
0.8
0.7
1.3
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.1
-0.4
1.8
0.2
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.8
-0.2
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.4
-0.2
0.10.1
0.5-0.4
2.1
0.2
1.0
1.1
0.9
-0.2
1.20.1
1.7 0.3
0.3
Population Growth by State – 2019
AK-0.5
HI-0.3
VT
RI
NJ
NH
MD
MA
DE
CT
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
Less than 0.0%
0.0%-0.5%
0.6%-1.0%
1.1%-1.5%
1.6%-2.0%
Greater than 2.0%
U.S. = 0.5%
1.0DC
20
Economic Outlook 21
MSA Domestic Migration
A handful of large urban areas accounted for a disproportionate
share of economic growth this past decade, with creative jobs clustering in urban areas. The
COVID-19 outbreak may challenge this growth model going forward but we suspect the trend toward urbanization
will retain strong momentum in the coming decade.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
0 100 200 300 400 500
Columbus, OHOklahoma City, OK
Sacramento, CARiverside, CAPortland, OR
Jacksonville, FLSeattle, WARaleigh, NC
Nashville, TNOrlando, FL
Las Vegas, NVDenver, CO
San Antonio, TXCharlotte, NC
Atlanta, GAHouston, TX
Austin, TXTampa, FL
Phoenix, AZDallas, TX
Metro Area Net Domestic Migration: Top 20Cumulative Total in Thousands, 2010-2019
Economic Outlook 2222
North Carolina
North Carolina largely avoided a major outbreak.
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities
0
300
600
900
0
300
600
900
Mar-23 Mar-30 Apr-06 Apr-13 Apr-20 Apr-27 May-04 May-11
NC New COVID-19 Cases
Daily Figure7-Day Moving Average
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar-23 Mar-30 Apr-06 Apr-13 Apr-20 Apr-27 May-04 May-11
NC New COVID-19 Deaths
Daily Figure7-Day Moving Average
22
Economic Outlook 2323
North Carolina
North Carolina driving appears to have recovered nearly all of its decline.
Source: Apple and Wells Fargo Securities
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Jan-13 Feb-10 Mar-09 Apr-06 May-04
North Carolina MobilityApple Data
driving0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jan-13 Feb-10 Mar-09 Apr-06 May-04
Charlotte MobilityApple Data
driving transit walking
23
Economic Outlook 2424
North Carolina
North Carolina’s economy was “strong” but losing momentum prior to COVID-19. Almost 900,000 jobless claims have been filed in the past eight weeks.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
ClaimsEmployment Growth
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
North Carolina Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA
North Carolina: Mar @ 0.9%U.S.: Apr @ -3.5%
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Jan-19 May-19 Oct-19 Feb-20
North Carolina Initial Jobless ClaimsThousands
May-09: 56,193
24
Economic Outlook 25
Small Business in North Carolina
890,000 small businesses in 2018 1.6 million small business employees, or 44% of total
employment in 2015 Health care & social assistance: 252,000 employees
(44% of total industry employment) Accommodation & food services: 233,000 (59%) Retail Trade: 154,000 (32%) Manufacturing: 154,000 (36%) Construction: 149,000 (84%)
9,400 small businesses exported goods in 2015, accounting for 26% of total exports
Source: Small Business Administration and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 26
North Carolina
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
North Carolina Nonfarm EmploymentYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA
WF Forecast
Economic Outlook 27
MSA Domestic Migration
Charlotte and Raleigh account for the vast majority of net
migration to North Carolina.
Much of Eastern North Carolina continues to lose population.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Jacksonville
New Bern
Rocky Mount
Goldsboro
Greenville
Hickory
Burlington
Greensboro
Winston-Salem
Durham
Wilmington
Asheville
Raleigh
Charlotte
Net Domestic Migration by NC MSAThousands, 2010-2019
Economic Outlook 28
North Carolina Housing
Single-family permits were rising solidly.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
North Carolina Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Single-Family: Feb @ 52,968Single-Family, 12-MMA: Feb @ 50,835Multifamily, 12-MMA: Feb @ 19,251
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968
Economic Outlook 2929
CRE—Office
Charlotte had the fastest rising office rents in the nation prior to the outbreak.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
Rent GrowthVacancy
7.5%5.7%
3.9%
3.1%
1.3%
3.0%
5.4%
4.2%
3.5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Charlotte
Raleigh
Greensboro
Wilmington
Asheville
Richmond
Nashville
Atlanta
Greenville
Office Rent GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change
29
7.4%
5.4%
8.6%
2.9%
2.8%
6.9%
6.1%
11.5%
7.3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Charlotte
Raleigh
Greensboro
Wilmington
Asheville
Richmond
Nashville
Atlanta
Greenville
Office Vacancy RateQ4-2019
Economic Outlook 3030
CRE—Industrial
Warehousing and distribution should remain fairly strong.
Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities
Rent GrowthVacancy
5.4%
4.3%
4.0%
4.9%
4.5%
5.6%7.5%
6.4%
4.0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Charlotte
Raleigh
Greensboro
Wilmington
Asheville
Richmond
Nashville
Atlanta
Greenville
Industrial Rent GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change
30
6.2%
2.1%
3.4%
3.0%
3.3%
4.3%
3.7%
5.7%
6.0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Charlotte
Raleigh
Greensboro
Wilmington
Asheville
Richmond
Nashville
Atlanta
Greenville
Industrial Vacancy RateQ4-2019
Economic Outlook 3131
NC
All regions of North Carolina will see economic data deteriorate significantly.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
UnemploymentEmployment
3.6%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.9%
5.9%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Asheville
Virginia Beach
Durham-…
Raleigh
Myrtle Beach
Charlotte-…
Wilmington
Winston-Salem
North Carolina
Burlington
Greensboro-…
Greenville
Jacksonville
Rocky Mount
Fayetteville
Unemployment Rate by Metro
31
-2.2%
-2.0%
-1.1%
-0.9%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.6%
0.9%
1.0%
1.2%
1.8%
1.8%
2.2%
2.8%
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Greenville
Fayetteville
Greensboro-High Point
Asheville
Winston-Salem
Virginia Beach
Burlington
North Carolina
Jacksonville
Durham-Chapel Hill
Wilmington
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia
Raleigh
Myrtle Beach
Nonfarm Employment by MetroYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA
Economic Outlook 32
Employment Growth by MSA
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
Asheville
Raleigh-CaryDurham-Chapel Hill
GreensboroWilmington
Myrtle Beach
SpartanburgJacksonville
Charleston
Hickory
Charlotte
Greenville, SC
Columbia
Winston-SalemAugusta
Fayetteville
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
3-M
onth
Ann
ualiz
ed P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Year-over-Year Percent Change
The Carolinas Employment Growth: March 2020
Population SizeLess Than 450K450 - 750KMore Than 800K
Economic Outlook 33
Unemployment Rates
Both states’ unemployment rates will surge in April.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted
South Carolina: Mar @ 2.6%North Carolina: Mar @ 4.4%U.S.: Mar @ 4.4%
Economic Outlook 3434
South Carolina
South Carolina has received more than 410,000 jobless claims in the past six weeks.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
ClaimsEmployment Growth
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
South Carolina Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change of a 3-MMA
South Carolina: Mar @ 1.7%United States: Mar @ 1.4%
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Jan-19 May-19 Oct-19 Feb-20
South Carolina Initial Jobless ClaimsThousands
May-09: 32,513
34
Economic Outlook 35
U.S. Economic Forecast
12020
2020
2018 2019 2020 20211Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2.6 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -4.8 -24.7 6.7 4.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.3 -4.6 1.2Personal Consumption 1.7 4.0 3.5 1.4 1.1 4.6 3.1 1.8 -7.6 -30.0 19.4 6.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.6 -4.9 2.7Business Fixed Investment 8.8 7.9 2.1 4.8 4.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.4 -8.6 -21.0 -9.3 3.1 3.0 5.2 4.9 4.9 6.4 2.1 -8.1 0.4
Equipment 6.6 3.4 2.9 7.4 -0.1 0.8 -3.8 -4.3 -15.2 -31.3 -10.8 15.0 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.0 6.8 1.3 -12.1 1.5Intellectual Property Products 9.7 11.9 4.1 11.7 10.8 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.4 -2.4 -2.8 -4.4 3.7 7.4 6.9 6.7 7.4 7.5 0.3 2.2Structures 12.1 11.0 -2.1 -9.0 4.0 -11.1 -9.9 -7.2 -9.7 -32.0 -19.0 -7.5 -3.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.1 -4.3 -14.9 -6.5
Residential Investment -5.3 -3.7 -4.0 -4.7 -1.0 -3.0 4.6 6.5 21.0 -36.0 -12.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 -1.5 -1.5 -3.3 -1.4Government Purchases 1.9 2.6 2.1 -0.4 2.9 4.8 1.7 2.5 0.7 1.4 -0.1 -2.1 -3.3 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 1.7 2.3 1.3 -1.4
Net Exports 2 0.0 0.7 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.3 2.5 -5.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -1.0Inventories 2 0.1 -1.2 2.1 0.1 0.5 -0.9 0.0 -1.0 -0.5 -1.8 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.5
Nonfarm Payroll Change 3 234 211 153 172 139 159 203 210 -142 -9500 4250 800 500 300 230 130 193 178 -1148 290Unemployment Rate 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 17.6 12.1 8.1 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.3 3.9 3.7 10.4 6.6
Consumer Price Index 4 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.7 1.5
Quarter-End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.75 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.96 2.25 0.25 0.25Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.44 4.57 4.63 4.64 4.28 3.80 3.61 3.72 3.45 2.90 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.15 3.20 4.54 3.94 3.05 3.102 Year Note 2.27 2.52 2.81 2.48 2.27 1.75 1.63 1.58 0.23 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 2.53 1.97 0.37 0.8010 Year Note 2.74 2.85 3.05 2.69 2.41 2.00 1.68 1.92 0.70 1.00 1.15 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.45 1.50 2.91 2.14 1.03 1.40
Forecast as of: May 13, 20201 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Percentage Point Contribution to GDP 3 Average Monthly Change4 Year-over-Year Percentage Change 5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Wells Fargo Securities U.S. Economic Forecast
ForecastActualForecastActual20212019 20202018
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities
Economic Outlook 36
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A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
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May-14 A Roadmap for the U.S. Labor Market BrysonMay-13 Could the U.S. Economy Be Facing Deflation? Bryson & SeeryMay-05 The Animal Spirits Index Sinks Further into Negative Territory IqbalMay-05 The BFI Outlook in the Current Cycle Bryson, Quinlan & SeeryApril-28 Our Labor Market Index Hit Its Lowest Level Ever in March Iqbal
U.S. RegionalMay-05 COVID-19 Crisis Hits New Jersey Vitner & DoughertyApril-24 Texas Economic Update: Oil Rout 2020 Vitner & DoughertyApril-22 Colorado Economy Takes Some Hits Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldApril-17 COVID-19 Shut Down Seattle's Red-Hot Economy in March Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldApril-17 California's Economy Succumbs to COVID-19 Cutback Vitner & Dougherty
Global EconomyMay-15 Keep Cautious and Carry On Bennenbroek & LicisApril-30 Economy Slumps, ECB Eases Modestly BennenbroekApril-29 Scandi Slump Pressures Policymakers Licis & BennenbroekApril-27 Crude Reality McKenna & LicisApril-27 Monitoring the International Impact of COVID-19 Bennenbroek & Licis
Interest Rates/Credit MarketMay-06 Treasury Refunding Highlights Pugliese & MathewsApril-30 Treasury Refunding Preview: Bills Barrage Continues Pugliese & MathewsApril-29 FOMC Meeting: Committee Ready To Do More, If Needed BrysonApril-28 Fed Expands Muni Purchase Eligibility Vitner & HonnoldApril-28 Fiscal Fallout from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Part III Bryson, Pugliese and Mathews
Real Estate & HousingApril-01 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook Vitner & Dougherty
March-26 COVID-19 Undercuts The Houseing Recovery Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldJanuary-09 Housing Chartbook: January 2020 & Outlook Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold
December-18 Commerical Real Estate Chartbook Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldDecember-05 Housing Maintains Solid Momentum Headed into 2020 Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold
Recent Special Commentary
Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group
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Jay H. Bryson, Acting Chief Economist …[email protected]
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist [email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]
Nick Bennenbroek, International Economist [email protected]
Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist [email protected]
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician [email protected]
Sarah House, Senior Economist [email protected]
Charlie Dougherty, Economist [email protected]
Michael Pugliese, Economist [email protected]
Brendan McKenna, International Economist [email protected]
Economists & Macro Strategists Economic Analysts
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Shannon Seery, Economic Analyst [email protected] Honnold, Economic Analyst [email protected] Licis, Economic Analyst [email protected] Mathews, Economic Analyst [email protected]
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