Download - Do I Go For It?
DO I GO FOR IT?Daniel Carpenter
Baker Lee
Analyzing the NFL
• NFL play data for 2002 – 2012• Every snap of every regular season and playoff game• Around 450,000 total plays
Data Fields
• Game ID• Quarter• Game Minutes• Game Seconds• Offense Team• Defense Team• Down• To Go• Yardline (1-99)
• Description• Offense Score• Defense Score• Season
(:23) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Woodhead for 14 yards TOUCHDOWN.
(2:52) (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to C.Johnson.
(14:51) M.Ingram up the middle to NO 23 for 3 yards (E.Sims).
G.Hartley extra point is GOOD Center-J.Drescher Holder-C.Daniel.
Chopping Up the Descriptions
2012 Plays
Managing the Data
• 2012 Season• AFC, NFC Subsets• Redzone Subsets• Scrimmage Plays Subset– No Field Goals– No Spikes, Kneels,
Penalties, or Fumbles– Sack = Pass
• Touchdown Score?– Binary
Digging Deeper
• Logistic Regression– Factor conversion and yard line
• Target variable: TD (binary)• Predictor variables:– Yard Line (1-20, categorical)– QB Rating (Linear)
• Touchdown probability at each yard line• QB rating influence on success rate
NFL Success Rate
Compare expected points of a TD try to expected points of a field goal try:
P(FG Made)*3
Conference Success RatesAFC NFC
P(TD), QB Rating, and Yard Line
Regression Code
Conclusions• Even with an average QB, probability of a TD is over
20% all the way out to the 6 yard line.• With a top 5 QB (QBR>100), expected touchdown
probability is 0.4 (extra point situation)• Gamestate (score of game, time left, play strategy) is
not represented in our analysis, but it heavily influences coaching decisions.
The End