DO I GO FOR IT?Daniel Carpenter

Baker Lee

Analyzing the NFL

• NFL play data for 2002 – 2012• Every snap of every regular season and playoff game• Around 450,000 total plays

Data Fields

• Game ID• Quarter• Game Minutes• Game Seconds• Offense Team• Defense Team• Down• To Go• Yardline (1-99)

• Description• Offense Score• Defense Score• Season

(:23) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Woodhead for 14 yards TOUCHDOWN.

(2:52) (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to C.Johnson.

(14:51) M.Ingram up the middle to NO 23 for 3 yards (E.Sims).

G.Hartley extra point is GOOD Center-J.Drescher Holder-C.Daniel.

Chopping Up the Descriptions

2012 Plays

Managing the Data

• 2012 Season• AFC, NFC Subsets• Redzone Subsets• Scrimmage Plays Subset– No Field Goals– No Spikes, Kneels,

Penalties, or Fumbles– Sack = Pass

• Touchdown Score?– Binary

Digging Deeper

• Logistic Regression– Factor conversion and yard line

• Target variable: TD (binary)• Predictor variables:– Yard Line (1-20, categorical)– QB Rating (Linear)

• Touchdown probability at each yard line• QB rating influence on success rate

NFL Success Rate

Compare expected points of a TD try to expected points of a field goal try:

P(FG Made)*3

Conference Success RatesAFC NFC

P(TD), QB Rating, and Yard Line

Regression Code

Conclusions• Even with an average QB, probability of a TD is over

20% all the way out to the 6 yard line.• With a top 5 QB (QBR>100), expected touchdown

probability is 0.4 (extra point situation)• Gamestate (score of game, time left, play strategy) is

not represented in our analysis, but it heavily influences coaching decisions.

The End