Breakout Session 1‐2
Challenges toward Low CarbonChallenges toward Low Carbon Development: Land Use andDevelopment: Land Use and
ForestryForestry
Gl b l GHG E i iGlobal GHG Emission100
80
100
Redrawn from WRI and CAIT data of 2000:
60
(%)
CO2 LULUCFF gases
40Sha
re ( N2O
CH4CO2 from fossil fuel
20The less developed a cointry the higher emission rate f h
0Developed Developing Least Developed
from LULUCF, the more developed a country the higher emission rate from Developed
CountriesDevelopingCountries
Least DevelopedCountries
Energy REDD+, low
the use of fossil fuels
conservation carbon farmingpractices
L d U D i iLand Use Decision
Demand for food,
Prices for those
fibre, fuel, carbon,
those commod‐
i i
Population
carbon, and land
itiesLand use
Populationdecisions
Forest transitionForest transitionForest cover
1. Triggers(road)
2 R i f i l2. Reinforcing loops(local demand, infrastructure, capital accummulation, pop dynamics)
3. Stabilizing loops (off‐farm jobs, increased land
d ti it f t it )productivity, forest scarcity)
Increasing environmental risk
Time Forest/plantations/ agric.
mosaicsUndisturbed
forestsForest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers mosaicsforests mosaicsfrontiers
Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)
Forest transitionForest transitionForest cover e.g. PNG, DR Congo Climate Proof
e.g. Indonesia, Brazil, Lao
Spatial Plan?
e.g. India, e.g. China, Costa Rica
REDD
Bolivia AR/REDD
Apply best farming practice and
Time Forest/plantations/ agric.
mosaicsUndisturbed
forestsForest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
pclimate smart
mosaicsforests mosaicsfrontiers
South & South East Asian GHG Miti ti P t ti l f L d U *
GtCO2e pa4 0
Mitigation Potential from Land Use*
3.0
4.0
1.4 3.8
2.0
3.0
1.7
1.00.7
Total Mitigation Opportunity
Avoided Deforestation
Forest Sequestration
Agriculture0.0
OpportunityDeforestationReduced Deforestation from Slash & Burn Agriculture
Reduced Forest Conversion to
SequestrationPastureland Afforestation
Cropland Afforestation
Degraded Forest Reforestation
Tillage and residues management
Grassland management
Pasture
and Intensive Agriculture
Reduced Timber Harvesting
g
Forest ManagementOrganic soils restoration
Degraded lands restoration
•2030 ‐ Forest carbon; agricultural sequestration; and avoidance of N2O and CH4 emissions, mainly from livestock (< 0.1 Gt).g q 2 4 y
Source: Smith et al., 2007 (Figure 8.5: Total technical mitigation potentials (all practices, all GHGs: MtCO2‐eq/yr) for each region by 2030, showing mean estimates); Nabuurs et al, 2007 (Table 9.3: Potential of mitigation measures of global forestry activities. Global model results indicate annual amount sequestered or emissions avoided, above business as usual, in 2030 for carbon prices 100 US$/tCO2 and less); both from Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the 4th assessment report of the IPCCC
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES TOWARD LCDISSUES AND CHALLENGES TOWARD LCD
• Institution and Governance l l• Spatial planning
S i i di i• Socio‐economic condition (livelihood)(livelihood)
• Low carbon and climate change• Low carbon and climate change adaptive farming technologiesp g g
SpeakersSpeakers• Low Carbon Development Strategies and Land Use Planning in
PNG. Dr. Bruno Kuruhfrom Papua New Guinea Forest Research InstituteStrengthening the policy environment for forestry and eco• Strengthening the policy environment for forestry and eco-governance. Speaker Dr. Florencia Pulhin from ICRAF Philippines
• Spatial analysis and socio-economic analysis toSpatial analysis and socio economic analysis tounderstand the time series transition of land cover and land use, and its relation to population and household livelihoods in a watershed–Dr. Daovorn Thongphan from Research Division & Research Center for Natural Resources & Climate Change, Faculty of Forestry National University of Laosof Forestry, National University of Laos
• Designing low carbon farming and challenges for its implementation. Speaker Dr. Savitri from Environment Division & Partnership Relations and Outreach (PRO), The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE) / King Mongkut'sUniversity of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)
E t d O t t f thi BOGExpected Outputs from this BOG• The resource persons are expected
– To share countries experiences related to the issuesTo share countries experiences related to the issues (Institution & Governance, Spatial planning, Socio‐economic condition technologies)economic condition, technologies)
– To share views on research challenges (e.g. major barriers in research /applying research to low‐carbon development policy in AFOLU sector, p p y ,community participations?)
To share ie s and ideas for identif ing kinds of– To share views and ideas for identifying kinds of collaboration (with other organizations / business/ governments) that are needed to “make LCD happen
Session LeaderSession Leader• 1. Session theme:
– Why this session theme is important to realise low‐carbon development in Asia?
– What this theme implies towards low‐carbon development policy in Asia?
– How common the theme is throughout the region?
• 2. Major findings:j g
– What are the major findings from the presentations / discussion?
– What are the states‐of‐the arts in this research field?
– What kinds of methodologies are useful for promotingWhat kinds of methodologies are useful for promoting research/ policy?
– What are major barriers in research /applying research toWhat are major barriers in research /applying research to low‐carbon development policy?
Session Leader• 3 Research challenge:
Session Leader• 3. Research challenge:
– What are the frontiers that research community should tackle now to thrust policy?tackle now to thrust policy?
– What is key data/research to apply research to real low‐carbon policy?carbon policy?
– How research community can collaborate to take further steps?steps?
• 4. Collaboration:
( /– What kinds of collaboration (with other organisations / business/ governments) are needed to “make it happen”?
• 5. Conclusion /Free description