Breakout Session 1‐2

Challenges toward Low CarbonChallenges toward Low Carbon Development: Land Use andDevelopment: Land Use and 

ForestryForestry

Gl b l GHG E i iGlobal GHG Emission100

80

100

Redrawn from WRI and CAIT data of 2000:

60

(%)

CO2 LULUCFF gases

40Sha

re ( N2O

CH4CO2 from fossil fuel

20The less developed a cointry the higher emission rate f h

0Developed Developing Least Developed

from LULUCF, the more developed a country the higher emission rate from Developed

CountriesDevelopingCountries

Least DevelopedCountries

Energy  REDD+, low

the use of fossil fuels

conservation carbon farmingpractices

L d U D i iLand Use Decision

Demand for food, 

Prices for those

fibre, fuel, carbon,

those commod‐

i i

Population

carbon, and land

itiesLand use 

Populationdecisions

Forest transitionForest transitionForest cover

1. Triggers(road)

2 R i f i l2. Reinforcing loops(local demand, infrastructure, capital accummulation, pop dynamics)

3. Stabilizing loops (off‐farm jobs, increased land 

d ti it f t it )productivity, forest scarcity)

Increasing environmental risk

Time Forest/plantations/ agric. 

mosaicsUndisturbed    

forestsForest/agric.mosaics

Forest frontiers mosaicsforests mosaicsfrontiers

Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)

Forest transitionForest transitionForest cover e.g. PNG, DR Congo Climate Proof 

e.g. Indonesia, Brazil, Lao

Spatial Plan?

e.g. India, e.g. China, Costa Rica

REDD

Bolivia AR/REDD

Apply best farming practice and 

Time Forest/plantations/ agric. 

mosaicsUndisturbed    

forestsForest/agric.mosaics

Forest frontiers

pclimate smart

mosaicsforests mosaicsfrontiers

South & South East Asian GHG Miti ti P t ti l f L d U *

GtCO2e pa4 0

Mitigation Potential from Land Use*

3.0

4.0

1.4 3.8

2.0

3.0

1.7

1.00.7

Total Mitigation Opportunity

Avoided Deforestation

Forest Sequestration

Agriculture0.0

OpportunityDeforestationReduced Deforestation from Slash & Burn Agriculture

Reduced Forest Conversion to 

SequestrationPastureland Afforestation

Cropland Afforestation

Degraded Forest Reforestation

Tillage and residues management

Grassland management

Pasture

and Intensive Agriculture

Reduced Timber Harvesting

g

Forest ManagementOrganic soils restoration

Degraded lands restoration

•2030 ‐ Forest carbon; agricultural sequestration; and avoidance of N2O and CH4 emissions, mainly from livestock (< 0.1 Gt).g q 2 4 y

Source: Smith et al., 2007 (Figure 8.5: Total technical mitigation potentials (all practices, all GHGs: MtCO2‐eq/yr) for each region by 2030, showing mean estimates); Nabuurs et al, 2007 (Table 9.3: Potential of mitigation measures of global forestry activities. Global model results indicate annual amount sequestered or emissions avoided, above business as usual, in  2030 for carbon prices 100 US$/tCO2 and less); both from Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the 4th assessment report of the IPCCC

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES TOWARD LCDISSUES AND CHALLENGES TOWARD LCD

• Institution and Governance l l• Spatial planning

S i i di i• Socio‐economic condition (livelihood)(livelihood)

• Low carbon and climate change• Low carbon and climate change adaptive farming technologiesp g g

SpeakersSpeakers• Low Carbon Development Strategies and Land Use Planning in

PNG. Dr. Bruno Kuruhfrom Papua New Guinea Forest Research InstituteStrengthening the policy environment for forestry and eco• Strengthening the policy environment for forestry and eco-governance. Speaker Dr. Florencia Pulhin from ICRAF Philippines

• Spatial analysis and socio-economic analysis toSpatial analysis and socio economic analysis tounderstand the time series transition of land cover and land use, and its relation to population and household livelihoods in a watershed–Dr. Daovorn Thongphan from Research Division & Research Center for Natural Resources & Climate Change, Faculty of Forestry National University of Laosof Forestry, National University of Laos

• Designing low carbon farming and challenges for its implementation. Speaker Dr. Savitri from Environment Division & Partnership Relations and Outreach (PRO), The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE) / King Mongkut'sUniversity of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)

E t d O t t f thi BOGExpected Outputs from this BOG• The resource persons are expected 

– To share countries experiences related to the issuesTo share countries experiences related to the issues (Institution & Governance, Spatial planning, Socio‐economic condition technologies)economic condition, technologies)

– To share views on research challenges (e.g. major barriers in research /applying research to low‐carbon development policy in AFOLU sector, p p y ,community participations?)

To share ie s and ideas for identif ing kinds of– To share views and ideas for identifying kinds of collaboration (with other organizations / business/ governments) that are needed to “make LCD happen

Session LeaderSession Leader• 1. Session theme:

– Why this session theme is important to realise low‐carbon development in Asia? 

– What this theme implies towards low‐carbon development policy in Asia?

– How common the theme is throughout the region?

• 2. Major findings:j g

– What are the major findings from the presentations / discussion?

– What are the states‐of‐the arts in this research field?

– What kinds of methodologies are useful for promotingWhat kinds of methodologies are useful for promoting research/ policy?

– What are major barriers in research /applying research toWhat are major barriers in research /applying research to low‐carbon development policy?

Session Leader• 3 Research challenge:

Session Leader• 3. Research challenge:

– What are the frontiers that research community should tackle now to thrust policy?tackle now to thrust policy?

– What is key data/research to apply research to real low‐carbon policy?carbon policy?

– How research community can collaborate to take further steps?steps?

• 4. Collaboration:

( /– What kinds of collaboration (with other organisations / business/ governments) are needed to “make it happen”?

• 5. Conclusion /Free description