School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Design in the Future – where are we heading?
Prof Arto Kiviniemi
School of Architecture
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Predicting the future...
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Point of departure: BIM is nothing new, but changes in the construction industry are slow…
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Some milestones on BIM timeline
First paper about BIM Chuck Eastman “The use of
computers instead of drawings
in building design” (March 1975)
ISO STEP (Standard for the Exchange
of Product Model Data)
IAI International Alliance
for Interoperability, now
buildingSMART
IFC 1.5.1
1st integrated
BIM project HUT-600 in Finland
IFC 2x3
1st BIM requirements GSA (USA) &
Senate Properties (Finland)
1975
ArchiCAD 1st BIM software
for PCs (Mac)
1984 2007
Announcements of
UK Government’s
BIM requirements
BIM becomes
mandatory in
public projects
in the UK
2016 2012
2010
National BIM
requirements
in Finland 1st IPD project
in USA
Building Product Modelling Building Information Modelling
1996 2002
Revit
Autodesk
Revit
2000 2006 1998
Increasing industry interest in BIM Early BIM research
Same old concept, new name...
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Culture of change resistance
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Crisis = danger & opportunity
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
UK Government is mandating BIM
http://www.bimtaskgroup.org/
...adoption of BIM will put us at the vanguard of the new digital construction era and position the UK to become the world leaders in BIM.
Government will require fully collaborative 3D BIM (with all project and asset information, documentation and data being electronic) as a minimum by 2016.
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Governmental BIM requirements in the UK Government Construction Strategy 2011
defined 2016 Targets
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Old business models can become obsolete…
• In 1975 a Kodak scientist invented the digital camera.
• Kodak senior management were unimpressed because: • the camera was huge, • image quality was poor compared to film, • getting a print was complex requiring a PC and PC
skills, • the film market was growing and so were Kodak sales
and profits, • if the technology could be improved, it would kill film
– the Golden Goose.
• The technology was buried until subsequent market emergence and Kodak’s entry into digital in the late 1990’s
• Business results: • In 1988 Kodak employed 145,300 people and made a
profit of $1.17bn on $13.3bn revenue • In 2009 it employed 19,900 people and made a
quarterly loss of $111m • In January 2012 Kodak filed for bankruptcy protection
Film Digital
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Active use of BIM in construction is growing rapidly
Source: McGraw Hill SmartMarket Report "The Business Value of BIM for Construction in Major Global Markets” 2014
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
BIM is not about buildings only!
Case Crossrail, London
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Connecting BIM and GIS
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Courtesy Seppo Törmä 2014 LDAC – Linked Data in Architecture and Construction
Buildings are surrounded by increasing amounts of data
Building project
Requirement model
Infrastrucure models
Building codes
Project plan
Architectural model Structural
model
MEP model
Facility management
models
Indoor/usage models
Infrastrucure models
Infrastructure models
Components and materials
Urban plans
… Sensor
data
…
…
Companies and people
Multiple interrelated datasets • Produced in a truly distributed manner by different parties • The building should be compatible with all the relevant datasets
OGC ®
Courtesy Leif Granholm
2D / 3D Analysis and Utility Networks
Copyright © 2012 Open Geospatial Consortium
Source: DHI-WASY GmbH, SIMKAS-3D project partner
Crossings btw. Heat & Power
Info about pipes nearby
Pipeline rupture simulation BIM
OGC ®
Courtesy Leif Granholm
Solar Energy Production Potential Analysis
Source : LGV Hamburg, Fa. simuPLAN
OGC CityGML
OGC ®
Courtesy Leif Granholm
CityGML : 5 levels of details
Copyright © 2010, Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc.
LOD 4 – Interior Model
“Walkable” architectural models
LOD 3 – City / Site model
Detailed architectural models, landmarks
LOD 2 – City / Site model
Simple buildings with detailed roof structures
LOD 1 – City / Site model
Prismatic buildings without roof structures
LOD 0 – Regional, landscape model
2.5D Digital terrain model, 3D landmarks
The same object may be represented in different LODs simultaneously
BIM
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Current use of BIM is just the tip of the iceberg – there are significant unused areas and potentials
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
BIM research has become a global effort
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Countries with the largest percentages of BIM publications in international research sources
Source: Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM - A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
29.987.12
6.55
6.14
5.28
4.48
4.37
3.55
3.28
3.28
3.28
2.46
2.39
2.25
1.64
1.64
1.30
1.23
1.15
1.02
1.02
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.75
0.41
0.20
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
USA
Brazil
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
UK
Germany
Norway
Denmark
Slovenia
New Zealand
France
China
Portugal
South Korea
Italy
Argentina
Israel
Chile
Switzerland
Canada
Egypt
Ireland
Turkey
Belgium
Spain
BIM research: publications in different countries
Percentage of papers
15.91
8.23
6.81
6.46
5.83
5.49
3.14
2.64
1.79
1.55
1.42
1.26
0.95
0.69
0.61
0.44
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.33
0.31
0.23
0.22
0.10
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00
Slovenia
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
New Zealand
Netherlands
Australia
Ireland
Portugal
Israel
Switzerland
USA
UK
Chile
Germany
Belgium
France
Brazil
South Korea
Argentina
Canada
Italy
Turkey
Egypt
Spain
China Index per 10,000 inhabitans
Data sources: World Population Index + Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM – A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
BIM is not about technology…
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: WSP Group 2013
BIM as a sociotechnical system with technical core
Current main focus
Real importance
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Gulnaz Aksenova, PhD student, École de Technologie Supérieure, Canada
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Gulnaz Aksenova, PhD student, École de Technologie Supérieure, Canada
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Need for new contractual models, e.g. IPD
Source: HansonBridgett: The IPD Framework
Multiparty contract
Polyparty contract
“Sharing the pain and the gain”
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Need to analyse and re-think the data flows
Source: ECPIP-project: Aalto University SimLab and VTT 2007-2009
Actors
Phases Tasks
Problems • process • skills • technology
} 80% human issues
} 20% technology
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Main benefits require collaboration
Source: McGraw Hill: SmartMarket Report 2012
• Average savings in change orders were 15.74 %
• Annual value of US building construction is USD 954 billion (2014 estimate *)
• 15.74 % = USD 150 billion
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Optioneering Looking for an optimal solution for complex requirements
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
MDO Design Method – CIFE/Stanford University
Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer – CIFE, Stanford University 2013
Finding the best solution to minimise lifecycle costs and carbon footprint by generating hundreds or thousands of design alternatives instead of manually creating only few options.
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Conventional MDO
Set-up time 60 hrs 140 hrs
Design cycle time 34 hrs 11 sec
Alternatives evaluated 3 21,360
Total design time 162 hrs 210 hrs
Life-cycle cost savings over base design (USD)
- $27 M
Carbon footprint reduction (CO2e) - 10 kt
Comparing Performance of Conventional Design Process with MDO
Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer – CIFE, Stanford University 2013
City and infrastructure scale
Sustainability assessment
Courtesy Michael Thydell – Sweco 2013
Topography
Geotechnics
Land use
Proximity to school
Nature value
Cultural value
Outdoor value
Suitability layer
Weight
0,04 x
0,28 x
0,14 x
0,11 x
0,27 x
0,12 x
0,02 x
Weighting matrix
Multi-criteria analysis
Society and landscape Multi-criteria analysis
Courtesy Michael Thydell – Sweco 2013
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Focus on the lifecycle and business values
Design = 0.1
Construction = 1
Operation in 20 years = 3 - 5
Change adaptation
Client’s core business
FM services
Design & construction
process
Business = 40 - 200
Arto Kiviniemi – VERA programme 2000
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
What do we mean by the performance of the buildings?
We can simulate the energy
performance of buildings…
Image: Beijing Airport baggage claim, SMART Solutions Buro Happold
We should start simulating the
business performance of buildings!
Salaries 92%
Running costs 6%
Capital cost 2%
Total energy 1.3%
Rick Best, Gerard de Valence (1999)
Building in Value: Pre-Design Issues
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Emerging technologies…
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
User interfaces, augmented reality, robotics…
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
3D printing of houses…
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-06/04/architecture-and-3d-printing
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Are we educating for the past or for the future?
How can we get talented people interested in working in the AEC industry?
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
In the nature material is expensive and shape is free.
Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent’s Biomimetics
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
In the nature material is expensive and shape is free.
In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap.
Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent’s Biomimetics
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
In the nature material is expensive and shape is free.
In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap.
Is it possible that in the future shape will be cheap and material expensive?
Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent’s Biomimetics
School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014
Design in the future? • Multidisciplinary & Collaborative
• Enabling automated production methods
• Performance-based & Life-cycle oriented
• Semi-automated or automated optioneering?