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School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014

Design in the Future – where are we heading?

Prof Arto Kiviniemi

School of Architecture

School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Predicting the future...


Point of departure: BIM is nothing new, but changes in the construction industry are slow…


Some milestones on BIM timeline

First paper about BIM Chuck Eastman “The use of

computers instead of drawings

in building design” (March 1975)

ISO STEP (Standard for the Exchange

of Product Model Data)

IAI International Alliance

for Interoperability, now

buildingSMART

IFC 1.5.1

1st integrated

BIM project HUT-600 in Finland

IFC 2x3

1st BIM requirements GSA (USA) &

Senate Properties (Finland)

1975

ArchiCAD 1st BIM software

for PCs (Mac)

1984 2007

Announcements of

UK Government’s

BIM requirements

BIM becomes

mandatory in

public projects

in the UK

2016 2012

2010

National BIM

requirements

in Finland 1st IPD project

in USA

Building Product Modelling Building Information Modelling

1996 2002

Revit

Autodesk

Revit

2000 2006 1998

Increasing industry interest in BIM Early BIM research

Same old concept, new name...


Culture of change resistance


Crisis = danger & opportunity


UK Government is mandating BIM

http://www.bimtaskgroup.org/

...adoption of BIM will put us at the vanguard of the new digital construction era and position the UK to become the world leaders in BIM.

Government will require fully collaborative 3D BIM (with all project and asset information, documentation and data being electronic) as a minimum by 2016.


Governmental BIM requirements in the UK Government Construction Strategy 2011

defined 2016 Targets


Old business models can become obsolete…

• In 1975 a Kodak scientist invented the digital camera.

• Kodak senior management were unimpressed because: • the camera was huge, • image quality was poor compared to film, • getting a print was complex requiring a PC and PC

skills, • the film market was growing and so were Kodak sales

and profits, • if the technology could be improved, it would kill film

– the Golden Goose.

• The technology was buried until subsequent market emergence and Kodak’s entry into digital in the late 1990’s

• Business results: • In 1988 Kodak employed 145,300 people and made a

profit of $1.17bn on $13.3bn revenue • In 2009 it employed 19,900 people and made a

quarterly loss of $111m • In January 2012 Kodak filed for bankruptcy protection

Film Digital


Active use of BIM in construction is growing rapidly

Source: McGraw Hill SmartMarket Report "The Business Value of BIM for Construction in Major Global Markets” 2014


BIM is not about buildings only!

Case Crossrail, London

School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013


Connecting BIM and GIS

School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Courtesy Seppo Törmä 2014 LDAC – Linked Data in Architecture and Construction

Buildings are surrounded by increasing amounts of data

Building project

Requirement model

Infrastrucure models

Building codes

Project plan

Architectural model Structural

model

MEP model

Facility management

models

Indoor/usage models

Infrastrucure models

Infrastructure models

Components and materials

Urban plans

… Sensor

data

…

…

Companies and people

Multiple interrelated datasets • Produced in a truly distributed manner by different parties • The building should be compatible with all the relevant datasets

OGC ®

Courtesy Leif Granholm

2D / 3D Analysis and Utility Networks

Copyright © 2012 Open Geospatial Consortium

Source: DHI-WASY GmbH, SIMKAS-3D project partner

Crossings btw. Heat & Power

Info about pipes nearby

Pipeline rupture simulation BIM

OGC ®


Solar Energy Production Potential Analysis

Source : LGV Hamburg, Fa. simuPLAN

OGC CityGML

OGC ®


CityGML : 5 levels of details

Copyright © 2010, Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc.

LOD 4 – Interior Model

“Walkable” architectural models

LOD 3 – City / Site model

Detailed architectural models, landmarks


Simple buildings with detailed roof structures


Prismatic buildings without roof structures

LOD 0 – Regional, landscape model

2.5D Digital terrain model, 3D landmarks

The same object may be represented in different LODs simultaneously

BIM


Current use of BIM is just the tip of the iceberg – there are significant unused areas and potentials


BIM research has become a global effort


Countries with the largest percentages of BIM publications in international research sources

Source: Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM - A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012


29.987.12

6.55

6.14

5.28

4.48

4.37

3.55

3.28

3.28

3.28

2.46

2.39

2.25

1.64

1.64

1.30

1.23

1.15

1.02

1.02

0.82

0.82

0.82

0.75

0.41

0.20

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

USA

Brazil

Sweden

Australia

Netherlands

Finland

UK

Germany

Norway

Denmark

Slovenia

New Zealand

France

China

Portugal

South Korea

Italy

Argentina

Israel

Chile

Switzerland

Canada

Egypt

Ireland

Turkey

Belgium

Spain

BIM research: publications in different countries

Percentage of papers

15.91

8.23

6.81

6.46

5.83

5.49

3.14

2.64

1.79

1.55

1.42

1.26

0.95

0.69

0.61

0.44

0.37

0.36

0.35

0.33

0.31

0.23

0.22

0.10

0.10

0.04

0.02

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Slovenia

Finland

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

New Zealand

Netherlands

Australia

Ireland

Portugal

Israel

Switzerland

USA

UK

Chile

Germany

Belgium

France

Brazil

South Korea

Argentina

Canada

Italy

Turkey

Egypt

Spain

China Index per 10,000 inhabitans

Data sources: World Population Index + Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM – A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012


BIM is not about technology…

School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Source: WSP Group 2013

BIM as a sociotechnical system with technical core

Current main focus

Real importance

School of Architecture © Prof Arto Kiviniemi 2014 Gulnaz Aksenova, PhD student, École de Technologie Supérieure, Canada


Need for new contractual models, e.g. IPD

Source: HansonBridgett: The IPD Framework

Multiparty contract

Polyparty contract

“Sharing the pain and the gain”


Need to analyse and re-think the data flows

Source: ECPIP-project: Aalto University SimLab and VTT 2007-2009

Actors

Phases Tasks

Problems • process • skills • technology

} 80% human issues

} 20% technology


Main benefits require collaboration

Source: McGraw Hill: SmartMarket Report 2012

• Average savings in change orders were 15.74 %

• Annual value of US building construction is USD 954 billion (2014 estimate *)

• 15.74 % = USD 150 billion


Optioneering Looking for an optimal solution for complex requirements


MDO Design Method – CIFE/Stanford University

Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer – CIFE, Stanford University 2013

Finding the best solution to minimise lifecycle costs and carbon footprint by generating hundreds or thousands of design alternatives instead of manually creating only few options.


Conventional MDO

Set-up time 60 hrs 140 hrs

Design cycle time 34 hrs 11 sec

Alternatives evaluated 3 21,360

Total design time 162 hrs 210 hrs

Life-cycle cost savings over base design (USD)

- $27 M

Carbon footprint reduction (CO2e) - 10 kt

Comparing Performance of Conventional Design Process with MDO

Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer – CIFE, Stanford University 2013

City and infrastructure scale

Sustainability assessment

Courtesy Michael Thydell – Sweco 2013

Topography

Geotechnics

Land use

Proximity to school

Nature value

Cultural value

Outdoor value

Suitability layer

Weight

0,04 x

0,28 x

0,14 x

0,11 x

0,27 x

0,12 x

0,02 x

Weighting matrix

Multi-criteria analysis

Society and landscape Multi-criteria analysis

Courtesy Michael Thydell – Sweco 2013


Focus on the lifecycle and business values

Design = 0.1

Construction = 1

Operation in 20 years = 3 - 5

Change adaptation

Client’s core business

FM services

Design & construction

process

Business = 40 - 200

Arto Kiviniemi – VERA programme 2000


What do we mean by the performance of the buildings?

We can simulate the energy

performance of buildings…

Image: Beijing Airport baggage claim, SMART Solutions Buro Happold

We should start simulating the

business performance of buildings!

Salaries 92%

Running costs 6%

Capital cost 2%

Total energy 1.3%

Rick Best, Gerard de Valence (1999)

Building in Value: Pre-Design Issues


Emerging technologies…


User interfaces, augmented reality, robotics…


3D printing of houses…

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-06/04/architecture-and-3d-printing


Are we educating for the past or for the future?

How can we get talented people interested in working in the AEC industry?


In the nature material is expensive and shape is free.

Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent’s Biomimetics



In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap.




In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap.

Is it possible that in the future shape will be cheap and material expensive?



Design in the future? • Multidisciplinary & Collaborative

• Enabling automated production methods

• Performance-based & Life-cycle oriented

• Semi-automated or automated optioneering?

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