Datos, Modelos, Software-
Interacción Clima-SociedadÁ.G. Muñoz
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS). Princeton UniversityInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). Columbia University
WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project – NOAA’s SubX [email protected]
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Contenido
• Algunos conjuntos de datos disponibles a escalas S2S• Algunas herramientas disponibles a escalas S2S • Interacción Clima-Sociedad
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Contenido
• Algunos conjuntos de datos disponibles a escalas S2S• Algunas herramientas disponibles a escalas S2S • Interacción Clima-Sociedad
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Datos: Proyecto de Predicción S2S
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Datos: En la IRIDL
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Datos: En la Datoteca del OLE2
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Contenido
• Algunos conjuntos de datos disponibles a escalas S2S• Algunas herramientas disponibles a escalas S2S • Interacción Clima-Sociedad
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Sequías: Vigilancia y Pronóstico
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
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Herramienta en R
Pronóstico (CPT automatizado)
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[−2,−1.5)[−1.5,−1)[−1,−0.5)[−0.5,0)[0,0.5)[0.5,1)[1,1.5)[1.5,2)[2,2.5]
12 −SPI map 1998 04
Climate Predictability Tool
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
• Análisis de fuentes de predicibilidad
• Construcción de modelosestadísticos y pronósticos
• Evaluación de skill
Downscaling Dinámico
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
WRF
-CLM
WRF
-NOAH
Kain-Fritsch (newEta) Betts-Miller-Janjic Grell-Devenyi Kain-Fritsch (old)
1980
sOBS
Newmulti-physics ensemble:NOSA20k(2000s)
Cortesía del Observatorio Latinoamericano (http://ole2.org )
Chourio y Muñoz (en prep)
Downscaling Dinámico: ¿hace falta?
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
CWRF
(v3.9
, 20
km)
CAM
_OLE
2
DEF MAM JJA SON
9 miembros – Obs: CPCUnified2AFC (GROC) 2001-2010
MOS: PCR con CPT y Datoteca
Chourio y Muñoz (en prep)
Algunos Productos
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/S2S_MJO.html
S2S Museum(Universidad de Tsukuba)
Sala de Mapas de la IRIDL
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Sala de Mapas de la IRIDL
I Escuela Sudamericana de Predicibilidad y Predicción Sub-Estacional, 10-14 Julio 2017. Asunción, Paraguay
CIMA (Argentina)
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
http://climar.cima.fcen.uba.ar/Msis.php
Algunos Productos
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
http://datoteca.ole2.org/maproom/Sala_de_Mapas/
Compuestos de lluvia para cada fasede la MJO, para cualquier período del año
Pronóstico sub-estacional (sin MOS) de lluvia del ECMWF para lospróximos 10 días
Sala de Mapas OLE2
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
http://datoteca.ole2.org/maproom/Sala_de_Mapas/
Observatorio Latinoamericano (OLE2)
Validación es clave
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
http://datoteca.ole2.org/maproom/Sala_de_Mapas/
Contenido
• Algunos datos y productos disponibles a escalas S2S• Algunas herramientas disponibles a escalas S2S • Interacción Clima-Sociedad
(gracias a L. Goddard)
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Preguntas Claves de los tomadores de decisión
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
1. ¿Cómo van a cambiar las cosas en el futuro?
- El “clima medio” futuro al que tenemos que adaparnos
- Extremos à Shocks al sistema
2. ¿Cómo se comportará mi sistema en un período futuro?
3. ¿Los datos climáticos son fáciles de obtener y usar?
4. ¿La información climática es fácil de interpretar?
Preguntas Claves de los tomadores de decisión
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
1. ¿Cómo van a cambiar las cosas en el futuro?
- El “clima medio” futuro al que tenemos que adaparnos
- Extremos à Shocks al sistema
2. ¿Cómo se comportará mi sistema en un período futuro?
3. ¿Los datos climáticos son fáciles de obtener y usar?
4. ¿La información climática es fácil de interpretar?
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Thehigh-resolutiondata,whichcanbeviewedonadailytimescaleatthescaleofindividualcitiesandtowns,willhelpscientistsandplannersconductclimateriskassessmentstobetterunderstandlocalandglobaleffectsofhazards,suchasseveredrought,floods,heatwavesandlossesinagricultureproductivity.
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Preguntas Claves
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
0. ¿Qué tan bien han trabajado estas herramientasen el pasado? 1. ¿Cómo van a cambiar las cosas en el futuro?
- El “clima medio” futuro al que tenemos que adaparnos
- Extremos à Shocks al sistema
2. ¿Cómo se comportará mi sistema en un período futuro?
3. ¿Los datos climáticos son fáciles de obtener y usar?
4. ¿La información climática es fácil de interpretar?
I Escuela Sudamericana de Predicibilidad y Predicción Sub-Estacional, 10-14 Julio 2017. Asunción, Paraguay
Gran Problema: Probreza de Datos
Sinosetienen suficientes observaciones decalidad,¿cómo sabercuál es elproducto quesequiere?
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
(Shin and Sardeshmukh, 2010, Climate Dynamics)
Los modelos tienden a mostrar patrones incorrectos de tendenciasProblema #1
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Precipitation Changes over SE South America (Sep-Feb 1901-2005)
Los modelos tienden a tener mal la magnitud de la tendenciaProblema #2
(Gonzalezetal.2014,Clim.Dyn.)
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Observations (last 15 years)
Climate Change Projections(end of 21st century)
Decadal-scale variability is importantProblema #3
¿Qué podemos ofrecer?
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
• Entender el pasado
• Poner el presente en contexto
• Mirar al futuro con información relevante
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
(Shin and Sardeshmukh, 2010, Climate Dynamics)
Los modelos tienden a mostrar patrones incorrectos de tendencias
Siglo XX:Patronesobservados en T y P son representadosmejor enmodelos con patrones realistasde temperaturasuperficial del mar.
Entendiendo elpasado
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Poner elpresente en contextoPrecipita
ción
Tempe
ratura
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Poner elpresente en contextoPrecipita
ción
Tempe
ratura
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Mirar elfuturo coninformación relevante
Sur de África: Temperatura media anual
África occidental: Temperatura media anual
Proyecciones de Cambio Climáticono pueden producirpredicciones de variabilidad decadal
¿Predicciones Decadales?
¡Proveer laPDFcompleta!
Conclusiones
Workshop on Water, Food and Energy Nexus for Climate Risk Management: Advanced Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Support Decision Making in Colombia. Bogotá, 30 Oct, 1 Nov 2017
Ø Observaciones decalidad soncríticas.
Ø Existen múltiples productos ya disponibles.Mejor unir esfuerzos quedividirlos.
Ø Identificar lasescalas detiempo correctas ylainformación correcta paralatoma dedecisión yejecución deacciones es crítico.
Ø Verificación es crítica.¿Qué es importante tener correctamente,paraTI?
Ø Comunidades expertas deben trabajar juntasparadar mejor cuenta delasoportunidades ylimitaciones en cada uno denuestros modelos ydatos.