Crime Waves and the Need for Multi-Agency Report Cards of Early Indicators
of Community Crime
Rolf Loeber
University of Pittsburgh/ Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
* Is it possible to predict crime waves?
* What are community needs for indicators of future crime waves?
* What would be the role of interagency collaboration in this?
Key questions
UCR Murder and Robbery Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Rate
per
100
,000
Pop
ulat
ion
Robbery/25
Murder
Homicide rate dramatically decreased in Europe from the middle ages on
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Local Estimates: Europe
National Series: Europe
USA-National Series
Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)
Source: Eisner, 2004
Per
sons
kil
led
per
tota
l pop
ulat
ion
of
100,
000
(log
arit
hmic
sca
le)
Year
The current level of homicide in the U.S. is about where Europe was three centuries ago.
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Local Estimates: Europe
National Series: Europe
USA-National Series
Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)
Source: Eisner, 2004
Per
sons
kil
led
per
tota
l po
pula
tion
of
100,
000
Year
Some hypotheses concerning the origins of community crime trends:• Community crime trends are not a function of
chance.• Community crime trends are sum of age-crime
curves of successive age cohorts.• Crime trends are most influenced by peak
offending age of juveniles, and by high-rate offenders.
• Peak offending age may vary.• Number of high-rate offenders may vary from age
cohort to age cohort.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Age
Per
cen
tag
e
Youngest sampleOldest samplePoly. (Youngest sample)Poly. (Oldest sample)
Sample Differences in Reported ViolenceAge crime curve. Youngest sample
Age crime curve. Oldest sample
What are the best predictors of violence?
Some results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study
Proportion of Boys Committing Violent Offenses for Different Levels of Risk(based on 11 risk factors out of 51 significant bivariate risk factors)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
BaseRate
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Number of Violence Risk Factors
Perc
enta
ge C
omm
iting
Vio
lenc
e
Source: Loeber et al., 2005
Predictors of Violence and Agency/Department Which Can Record Information
Predictors: Agency/Department• Low SES Census• Family on welfare Census• Bad neighborhood Census• Low school motivation Education• Truancy Education• High parental stress ?• Delinquency before 10 Justice• Cruel to people Health and Human Services• Depressed mood Health and Human Services• Physical aggression Health and Human Services• Callous/unemotional Health and Human Services
Source: Loeber et al., 2005
Predictors of Differences in Violence in Different Cohorts and Agency Which Can
Record InformationPredictor Agency/Department• Held back in school Education• Gun carrying Justice• Gang membership Justice• Drug dealing Justice/Drug Control• Hard drug use Justice/Drug Control• Neighborhood % unemployed Census• Neighborhood median household size Census• Period effects ?
Source: Fabio, Loeber et al., 2006
Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (1)
Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)
Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (2)
Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)
A visual representation of a city’s total aggregated risk factors.
John A. Pollard, Ph.D. Developmental Research and Programs
No stude nt sin this a re a.
Insufficie nt numbe r ofstude nt s in this are a.
Neighborhood #2
Neighborhood #1 Neighborhood #3
Do we have the right information? (1)
Examples of risk factor surveys and surveys of general well-being:
• The Healthy Youth! survey, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
• The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, sponsored by the CDC, currently does not have data for Pittsburgh.
• The Casey Foundation Kids Count provides data for Pennsylvania, but not more detailed.
Do we have the right information? (2)
• Indicators of School Crime and Safety, sponsored by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is not available on the neighborhood level.
• Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency and Youth Gang Involvement (National Youth Gang Center, 2005).
TIME FOR CHANGE? (1)
A major choice to make:
• Continue with mostly reactive systems of intervention that address juvenile delinquency?
• Expand proactive systems of intervention?
TIME FOR CHANGE? (2)
• Put together Council working group to explore early marker systems and report on available data sources, barriers and feasibility issues.
• Explore options to tie in with existing programs (e.g., Helping America’s Youth initiative).
• Council’s early marker approaches could be used to support state and county development of local early marker systems.