-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
1/20
Commodities MonthlyGlobal Economy Cold Middle East Hot 20 NOVEMBER 2012
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
2/20
2
Commodities Monthly
Global Economy Cold Middle East Hot
GENERAL 0-3 M 4-6 M 7-12 M The global economy looks set to muddle through 2013 with
limited growth potential but decreasing downside risks.
Despite continuing positive US trends a probable soft fiscalcliff will limit growth potential.
The Chinese development has been on the positive side latelybut we expect only careful stimulus measures to support it.
Most likely Euro-zone growth will remain around zero with stillrestricted credit flows. Austerity measures will continue but bemore moderate.
ENERGY 0-3 M 4-6 M7-12 M The IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 was clearly bullish on
future US supply from tight oil deposits.
Despite several downgrades, the IEA still expects persistentstrong global oil demand and continued substantial growth
going forward, ensuring a relatively tight market balance. Meanwhile the geopolitical temperature in the Middle East
continues to rise, with the current Israeli-Palestinian conflictthe latest example. Geopolitical upside risk remains high.
INDUSTRIAL METALS 0-3 M4-6 M7-12 M As expected, the post-summer rally in industrial metals prices
was short-lived, with Chinese economic headwinds andpolitical uncertainty hardly supportive.
Our opportunistic tactical recommendation to sell on ralliesand buy near the bottom of the range (to some extent set bymarginal production costs) remains.
Our strategic view is mildly bullish as a modest acceleration in
global growth still appears the most probable scenario for nextyear, with Chinas new political leaders likely to promotestability.
PRECIOUS METALS 0-3 M4-6 M7-12 M Positive factors still dominate the gold market. However, due
to the metals surprisingly poor performance following theQE3 announcement we revise our Q4-12 average priceforecast down $50/ozt to $1750/ozt.
Gold and silver coin sales are showing signs of recovery, whilephysical ETF sales remain strong, suggesting the retail marketis becoming increasingly concerned at the rate at whichmoney is being printed.
Johnson Matthey currently forecasts significant platinum andpalladium deficits in 2012 and expects tight markets next year.
AGRICULTURE 0-3 M4-6 M7-12 M El Nio risk this winter has decreased further with neutral
conditions currently the most likely scenario according to theNOAA, reducing meteorological risks going forward.
The knot in the grain market is slowly beginning to unravelthough potential FSU protectionism, low inventories duringthe intercrop season and local drought conditions remain atleast short-term supportive. Still, risk is skewed to thedownside and our long term forecast outright bearish.
US winter precipitation will be very important given current dry
conditions in the Midwest and Great Plains.
Arrows indicate the expected price action during the period in question.
THE NEXT COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE PUBLISHED IN MID-JANUARY
(price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
m
aj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
apr-11
m
aj-11
jun-11
jul-11
aug-11
sep-11
okt-11
nov-11
dec-11
jan-12
feb-12
mar-12
apr-12
m
aj-12
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Industrial Metals
Precious MetalsEnergy
Agriculture
(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI price indices)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) M/M (%)
(%)
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
46
8
10
12
CO2(EUA)
Coffe(Ar.)
Soybeans
Heat.oil(US)
CopperWTI
Nickel
BrentTin
Sugar
Platinum
Gasoline(US)
Steelbillets
Cotton
PalladiumSilver
GoldCorn
Power(Nordic)
Wheat
Power(Cont.)
AluminiumZinc
Cocoa(US)
Lead
Nat.gas(US)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
3/20
3
Commodities Monthly
General
While increased tension in the Middle East couldadversely affect the oil market sending priceshigher, commodities are currently depressed by
weak global macroeconomic conditions.Consequently, barring disruption of the oil marketwe expect no major upturn in commodities pricesnear-term. While China may announce unexpectedstimulus measures, its politicians have so faravoided aggressive stimulus, opting instead toprovide a substantial liquidity boost in a formateasily reversible if inflation moves higher or thelocal housing market turns upward.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the generaleconomic outlook for 2013 suggests a global economymuddling through. Despite encouraging signs in both
the US and China, we forecast little growth in Europeoverall. Moreover, we expect the upcoming US fiscal cliffto impact, albeit much less than it might have done. Webelieve further austerity measures will continue torestrict European growth, also to a smaller extent thanmany might have feared, with the ECB policy mandatingwhatever it takes enabling European policymakers toease the squeeze in 2013, compared to 2012.
Over the past month, global markets have found little tocelebrate despite the end to uncertainties surround boththe US elections and Chinas political transition. Instead,
concerns regarding the potential threat posed by theimpending US fiscal cliff have hit markets with fullforce with the current indeterminate outcome to talksintended to resolve the crisis likely to depress Q4-12 USbusiness investments. Clearly, the issue createsenormous uncertainty regarding US macroeconomicprospects for next year. Since our last report both US andChinese equities have fallen almost 5% whilecommodities have decreased by only less than 2%,largely in line with the gain in the US dollar index.Hurricane Sandy created considerable volatility forenergy markets with oil and oil product prices movingboth higher and lower during the period to end largelyunchanged. Further, precious metals have remainedrange-bound over the past month, eventually edgingonly slightly higher. Significantly, industrial metals pricesdeclined only 1.3% during the same period taking littlenotice of the more substantial 4.5% fall in Chineseequities. Concurrently, the worst performer overall wasthe Agricultural sector which dropped 5.6% on easingmarket fundamentals.
(price index, weekly closing)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
15001600
1700
1800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China
Eurozone
OECD
USAReference
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
4/20
4
Commodities Monthly
Crude oil
Since being first announced in July 2011, the IEAs 2012global oil demand estimate has been successivelyrevised 1.4 mb/d lower. Given current high
macroeconomic headwinds and/or uncertaintiesaffecting all major regional markets, it is hard toimagine the situation changing any time soon. Inaddition, expected long-term supply continues toincrease as tight US oil production still exceedsexpectations. Taking mainly these factors into accountwe recently lowered our Brent crude oil price forecastwith risk skewed to the downside. Still, we continue toanticipate record high global oil consumption in 2012while marginal unconventional barrels remainexpensive to produce, middle distillate marketscontinue tight, geopolitical risk is extraordinarily high,and oil producers retain strong incentives to defend
prices. Given all these factors, a deep, prolongeddownturn in the oil market appears neither imminentnor likely in the medium-term unless the risk of aglobal recession increases significantly.
While most recent data suggest the oil market was relativelybalanced in Q3-12 there appears to be an oversupply of
around 1 mb/d in this quarter, partly due to lowerconsumption as a result of Hurricane Sandy and
reactivation of North Sea production followingmaintenance. Overall, current OECD industry oil stocks arewell above their five year average due to high North
American and Asian crude oil stocks. Conversely, global oil
product stocks are below normal.
The International Energy Agencys (IEA) World EnergyOutlook for 2012 appeared optimistic regarding tight US oil
production, which it now expects to increase fromapproximately 1 mb/d in 2011 to above 4 mb/d by the mid-
2020s. As a result, the US may replace Saudi Arabia as theworlds largest oil producer by around 2020 and become
virtually energy self-sufficient by the mid-2030s.Furthermore, North America could become a net exporteraround 2030. However, considering the novelty of tight oil
production considerable uncertainty still surrounds theseprojections, e.g. regarding non-US potential and the life
span of such resources.
Geopolitical conditions in the MENA region continue to
deteriorate, Gaza being the latest example. The civil war inSyria is increasingly impacting surrounding countries, e.g.
with grenades being exchanged between Turkey and Israeland significant public unrest in Lebanon. Iran haschallenged both the US and Saudi Arabia by firing at a US
UAV, harassing Saudi tanker traffic and potentially violatingSaudi airspace. Other conflicts remain unresolved and could
revive at any time even though attention is currentlyfocused elsewhere, e.g. Egypt and Bahrain. In addition,Yemens export pipeline (110 kb/d) has once again been
blown up after several months of repairs, eliminating muchneeded funding for the countrys transitional government.
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NYMEXWTI
ICE Brent
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
315
320
325
330
335
340345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2007-2011 avg.
2011
2012
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
2012
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)
2013
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)IEA 89.6 -80 90.4 -70EIA 89.05 -40 89.94 -70
OPEC 88.80 -10 89.57 -20
($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FullYear
2012 - - - 110 111.72013 105 105 110 110 107.52014 - - - - 110.02015 - - - - 115.0
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
5/20
5
Commodities Monthly
Energy
(NYMEX, $/b) (ICE, $/b)
85
8687
88
89
9091
92
93
9495
96
9798
99
100
101
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jan-16
apr-16
jul-16
okt-16
jan-17
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
919293949596979899
100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
jan-16
apr-16
jul-16
okt-16
jan-17
apr-17
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing) (DOE, mb, weekly data)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NYMEXGasoline
NYMEXHeating oil
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2007-2011 avg.
Gasoline 2012
Distillate fuel oil 2007-2011 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2012
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1213
14
15
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
2
006
2
007
2
008
2
009
2
010
2
011
2
012
2,75
3,00
3,25
3,50
3,75
4,00
4,25
4,50
4,75
5,00
nov-12
m
ar-13
jul-13
nov-13
m
ar-14
jul-14
nov-14
m
ar-15
jul-15
nov-15
m
ar-16
jul-16
nov-16
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
6/20
6
Commodities Monthly
Nordic power
The Nordic Power market remains largely unchangedcompared to last month with wet and unsettled weather,a large hydro balance surplus, reservoir levels well above
normal and no major disturbances either in transmissionor production systems. Regional nuclear power plantsare operating with 95% availability while spot pricesremain very stable. The system spot price has increasedsignificantly compared to September, mainly due to theseasonal effect of falling temperatures. The spotaveraged EUR 34.75/MWh in October, up EUR 9.37/MWhfrom September.
On the forward curve only minor changes have occurredin recent months. Cal-13 has traded between EUR 36.5-38.5/MWh since the beginning of September while Q1-13has remained between EUR 40-44/MWh since April totrade currently near the bottom of its range. Givencurrent fundamentals, we see a probable high winterpremium in the Q1-13 contract. We expect the spot priceto deliver well below EUR 40/MWh. However, based onrecent winters, we see little downside until the contractgoes into delivery.
Coal, CO2 and continental power prices provide littlesupport for the Nordic power market. The front yearGerman power contract hit a new record low at thebeginning of November following the same pattern asEuropean coal prices. Those for CO2 were also trading at
a three month low at the time of writing with the Dec-12contract at EUR 7/ton. Weak macroeconomic sentimentand the on-going transition of the German power marketare exerting pressure on coal, CO2 and power prices.Germany continues to expand renewable powerproduction massively through the installation of windand solar plants.
Going forward we see no signs of a trend in anydirection from current low levels. With winterapproaching, the overall situation appears sounderthan in recent years. The only upside price risk is the
possibility of a longer cold spell potentially causingprice spikes in the spot market.
(by Mats Forsell and Mats Hedberg, Commodities Trading)
(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 12, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
7/20
7
Commodities Monthly
Industrial metals
We have been rightly sceptical of both industrial metalrallies in 2012 and continue to recommend sellers takeadvantage of recoveries and buyers exploit
corrections. Since the Chinese economy shows fewconvincing signs of having been brought under control,it is difficult to be outright bullish towards industrialmetals, particularly given the lack of support fromother demand sources. Most of this autumnscorrection is, however, probably over. While ourtactical recommendation is still opportunistic ourstrategic view remains slightly bullish with the maineconomic scenario for 2013 a slight acceleration inglobal growth. Currently, however, forecast riskappears skewed to the downside. Taking into accountthe cushioning effect of marginal production costs, theindustrial metal sector still appears relatively attractive
within the commodities complex.
Chinese macroeconomic data have proved surprisinglystrong in recent weeks, suggesting conditions are
stabilizing, at least temporarily. However, given theextraordinary challenges facing the country in switchingfrom an investment- to domestic consumption driven
growth model, it is far too early to say whether the currenteconomic downturn has finally bottomed. As Chinas flawed
growth model was discussed openly during the nationalcongress it will be interesting to learn how the newleadership will approach it and whether it intends to start
out positively by announcing directed stimulus measures in
one form or another. The Chinese are however painfullyaware of the fact that there is no quick fix to currentproblems and that pumping more money into investmentswill only result in even higher excess capacity and more bad
debt. Recent data show export growth trending higher onceagain while import growth continues to slow, possibly
negative developments from a domestic consumptionperspective. Meanwhile, with the countrys infrastructure
project pipeline solid for several years, Chinese demand formetals is unlikely to collapse in the foreseeable future.
Regionally, the outlook for other consumer markets issimilar to China. Despite stronger than expected US
macroeconomic data since early September the so-calledfiscal cliff is fast approaching. Automatically or otherwise,spending has to be cut and/or revenues increased, a
scenario set to depress US growth prospects. In Europe,while markets have been less focused on the regions
sovereign debt crisis, an end to its recession still seems faroff particularly with signs suggesting even the Germaneconomy is decelerating. In other words, a significant
recovery in metal demand still seems a long way off in allmajor regional markets. On the other hand, new capacity
investment plans are also being scaled back, resulting in abetter market balance than would otherwise have been thecase.
(weekly closing)
900110013001500170019002100230025002700290031003300350037003900
4100430045004700
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(LME, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
60
70
80
90100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
jun-11
jul-11
aug-11
sep-11
okt-11
nov-11
dec-11
jan-12
feb-12
mar-12
apr-12
maj-12
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Copper
Nickel
AluminiumZinc
LeadTin
(LME)
-27.3-10
-8-6-4-202
46
81012
1416
182022
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Lead Ti
n
Steel
Price (%)
Inventories (%)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
8/20
8
Commodities Monthly
Industrial metals
(weekly data)
LME aluminium inventories are near record highs whiletheir SHFE counterparts continue to rise. Anecdotal
evidence also suggests Chinese producer stocks have hitall-time highs.
These developments reflect the combination of nearrecord high end-Q3 global and Chinese production andcontinued weak worldwide growth.
Meanwhile, physical premiums remain strong with stillvery long queues to remove aluminium fromwarehouses. Cancelled warrants total 36%.
Despite oversupply looking likely to continue for severalyears, current prices are supported by presentproduction costs and an optimistic consensus viewregarding the potential for demand growth.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
(weekly data)
The ICSG reported a seasonally adjusted copper marketdeficit of 333 kt during the first seven months of thisyear. Mine supply increased 2.5% to 9,339 kt, refinedproduction 2.2% to 11,448 kt and refined consumption6.2% to 11,971 kt.
In late October, COMEX speculators became bearishonce again with long positions decreasing sharply.
Chinese copper import demand remains strong though
well below record highs posted earlier this year. Currently, both LME and SHFE copper stocks are tending
to increase with anecdotal evidence still suggesting veryhigh Chinese bonded warehouse inventories.
Although the copper market may turn bullish very quicklyif demand picks up, with prices well above marginalproduction costs we see substantial downside ifheadwinds intensify substantially.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
(weekly data)
With the Indonesian government taking a softer line onnickel ore exports, shipments to China may recover,boosting local production and further exacerbatingcurrent oversupply.
Meanwhile, LME nickel inventories continue to increase,as they have since late 2011 with a new post-2010 highfast approaching. This is hardly surprising with recordstrong global and Chinese production reported duringlate Q3-12.
The latest indications suggest HPAL projects continue tounderperform, confusing the future supply situation.This together with high marginal production costsrelative to prices so far limits downside risk.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
5000055000
60000LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
9/20
9
Commodities Monthly
Industrial metals
(weekly data)
After tending to decrease slightly during late summer,zinc inventories rose sharply throughout October and are
now not far from the mid-1990s all time high. However, after correcting in October, prices appear well
supported having dug into the marginal production costcurve. So far, zinc is the only major industrial metal tohave rebound substantially after the latest slump.
Further, zinc prices are supported both by currentproduction costs, future supply uncertainties, and fairlysolid Chinese zinc demand. However, if prices rise wewould expect present substantial idle smelting capacityto be brought back online, limiting upside potential.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
9000001000000
1100000
1200000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
(by Maximilian Brodin, Commodities Sales)
(weekly data)
Since bottoming in early September the Chinese iron oreprice has increased by over 40% due to mills restockingahead of the winter and strong steel production tosupply the construction sector.
Over the last five weeks Chinese steel prices have fallenback with industry sources reporting mills buying smallervolumes from port stocks below deep sea market prices.
Turkish scrap prices have been pushed higher followingsolid buying and limited US East Coast supplies due to
Hurricane Sandy. However, since the recent US hurricane-related
disruption, Turkish mills report decreasing margins andadditional scrap supplies. Consequently, we forecast thatTurkish scrap prices will fall back below $400/t. Colderweather will halt construction in China and slow demandfor steel and iron ore, weighing on prices short term.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
jul-08
nov-08
mar-09
jul-09
nov-09
mar-10
jul-10
nov-10
mar-11
jul-11
nov-11
mar-12
jul-12
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
(weekly data) (weekly data)
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
300000325000
350000
375000
400000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
30000
33000
36000LME inventoris (t, left axis)
LME price ($/t, right axis)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
10/20
10
Commodities Monthly
Industrial metals
(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
aug-16
nov-16
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
aug-16
nov-16
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
15800
16000
1620016400
16600
16800
17000
17200
17400
17600
17800
18000
18200
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
aug-16
nov-16
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
aug-16
nov-16
12-09-14
12-10-1612-11-16
(LME, $/t) (LME, $/t)
2100
2125
2150
2175
2200
2225
2250
2275
2300
2325
2350
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
aug-16
nov-16
12-09-1412-10-16
12-11-16
20250
20500
20750
21000
21250
21500
21750
22000
nov-12
dec-12
jan-13
feb-13
mar-13
apr-13
maj-13
jun-13
jul-13
aug-13
sep-13
okt-13
nov-13
dec-13
jan-14
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
11/20
11
Commodities Monthly
Precious metals
Given current circumstances, gold continues toperform poorly. The present year-long consolidationhas been the longest since its bull market began in theearly 2000s. However, price bullish factors stillsignificantly outnumber bearish. Further, gold is alsotactically attractive compared to many othercommodities. Provided liquidity settings remaingenerous, growth expectations muted and systemicrisks present, we expect prices to remain high. Fornow, strong risk aversion poses the biggest threat withgold unlikely to perform resiliently. Potentialheadwinds also include possible USD appreciation ifUS politicians find a sensible debt solution whichavoids the worst fiscal cliff scenarios. Conversely,this particular factor may also prove a supportivefactor if they fail to do so. Increasing inflationexpectations, the most obvious major potential bullishcatalyst, are hardly likely at present but may becomean issue next year. Due to the surprisingly mutedreaction to the launch of the open-ended QE3 programwe lower our Q4-12 average gold price forecast from$1800/ozt to $1750/ozt while reiterating our 2013projections (Q1: $1800/ozt, Q2: $1750/ozt, H2:$1700/ozt).
After showing signs of weakness in Q2-12 gold demandappears to have picked up once again in Q3-12 according todata compiled by the World Gold Council (WGC). With
jewellery demand remaining muted due to high prices, thepopularity of physical gold ETFs and central bank buying
provides overall support. Meanwhile, speculative longpositions remain high and short low, suggesting speculatorsgenerally share our view that risk is skewed to the upside in
the current market environment. Lately, US Mint gold (andsilver) coin sales (a good indicator of retail interest) have
recently recovered slightly, possibly indicating morewidespread concerns regarding the rate at which the Fed is
once again printing new money. We note that from a purelytechnical perspective, the gold price has moved in textbookmania fashion over the past decade suggesting the biggest
price downside lies just ahead of us.
Johnson Matthey, the leading authority on platinum groupmetals, has published a new interim review which includesbullish forecasts for both platinum and palladium. Currently,
the company projects major platinum and palladium marketdeficits this year, largely due to the strike in South Africa but
also other factors. The supply outlook for 2013 appearsgloomy which may prove problematic if the global recoverywere to gather momentum. Overall, from a fundamental
perspective, we recommend palladium and platinum aheadof gold and silver next year, though we recall both markets
are very small and unpredictable compared to gold.
(COMEX/NYMEX, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
jun-11
jul-11
aug-11
sep-11
okt-11
nov-11
dec-11
jan-12
feb-12
mar-12
apr-12
maj-12
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
SilverPlatinum
Gold
Palladium
(front month, weekly closing)
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
70
74
78
82
86
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB NOK CHF
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
12/20
12
Commodities Monthly
Precious metals
(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
Physical gold ETF holdings have continued to print newrecord highs, recently passing above 2,600 tonnes.
Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold relative toopen interest remain at the upper end of their 10-yearhistoric range with very few speculators holding shortpositions.
After trailing 2011 during the first nine months of thisyear, US Mint gold coin sales rose 18% y/y in October.Moreover, by the middle of this month, they had alreadyexceeded those for the whole of November last year.
During both Q3 and 9M, gold mine supply was slightlybelow the same period last year at 731.6 tonnes vs. 739.5tonnes, and 2100.9 tonnes vs. 2107.7 tonnes,respectively, according to WGC data.
200
300400
500600
700800900
10001100
1200130014001500
16001700
180019002000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
For the first time since April last year, physical silver ETFholdings hit a new all-time high of 18854 tonnes in mid-November.
Relative to open interest, net speculative long positionsin COMEX silver are high but not extreme compared totheir 10-year historic range.
After trailing 2011 during the first nine months of thisyear, US Mint silver coin sales increased 3% in October.
Furthermore, by the middle of this month, they hadalready exceeded those for the whole of November lastyear.
The current gold-to-silver ratio of 52.8 is largelyunchanged compared to a year ago with only relativelysmall fluctuations during the intervening period.
2468
101214161820
222426283032343638404244464850
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(NYMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)
In their latest review, Johnson Matthey forecast a 2012platinum market deficit of 400 kozt (total supply: 7,670
kozt), largely due to the South African labour conflict butalso weak recycling.
The company projects an even larger palladium deficit of915 kozt (total supply: 8,810 kozt), mainly due to lower thanexpected Russian supply but also the South African labour
dispute and weak recycling.
It shares our view that both platinum and palladiumbalances will remain strained in 2013, particularly if the
recovery gains momentum. Serious underinvestment inSouth African mining due to poor profitability has adversely
affected both metals while Russian supply is a majorconcern for palladium. 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
2
006
2
007
2
008
2
009
2
010
2
011
2
012
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300Palladium (left axis)
Platinum (right axis)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
13/20
13
Commodities Monthly
Precious metals
(COMEX, $/ozt) (COMEX, $/ozt)
1700
1725
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
mar-16
jun-16
sep-16
dec-16
mar-17
jun-17
sep-17
dec-17
mar-18
jun-18
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
32,0
32,5
33,0
33,5
34,0
34,5
35,0
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
mar-16
jun-16
sep-16
dec-16
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
(NYMEX, $/ozt) (NYMEX, $/ozt)
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
12-09-14
12-10-1612-11-16
(weekly data, tonnes) (weekly data, tonnes)
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
jun-11
jul-11
aug-11
sep-11
okt-11
nov-11
dec-11
jan-12
feb-12
mar-12
apr-12
maj-12
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Silver holdings / 10
Gold holdings
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
jan-10
feb-10
m
ar-10
apr-10
m
aj-10
jun-10
jul-10
a
ug-10
s
ep-10
okt-10
nov-10
d
ec-10
jan-11
feb-11
m
ar-11
apr-11
m
aj-11
jun-11
jul-11
a
ug-11
s
ep-11
okt-11
nov-11
d
ec-11
jan-12
feb-12
m
ar-12
apr-12
m
aj-12
jun-12
jul-12
a
ug-12
s
ep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Palladium holdings
Platinum holdings
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
14/20
14
Commodities Monthly
Agriculture
As expected, agricultural sector sentiment generallyhas been mainly bearish, particularly for grains. Onaverage grain prices have fallen to 2011 highs, whileremaining exceptionally strong. Most likely, sentimentwill continue largely negative. Though tacticallycautious due to some remaining weather related risksand protectionist event risk, strategically we areoutright bearish. With strong incentives to plant andprobably more normal weather conditions goingforward prices appear unlikely to remain high in themedium- to long term, a view supported by the factthat net speculative CBOT positions have rolled overwith speculators now decreasing long and increasingshort bets. With northern hemisphere crops enteringtheir dormant period, the biggest concern is that lowsoil moisture levels, particularly in the US, could leavethem more vulnerable to dry spells during the springand summer. Consequently, it will be important tomonitor winter precipitation.
The northern hemisphere autumn harvest is nearly overwith production estimates now facts. Following significantdownward revisions over the summer the pendulum has
swung backward in recent months. Consequently, the grainmarket knot has loosened slightly. Meanwhile, the soybean
situation, particularly, has changed significantly with theinter-crop period now apparently manageable followingconsecutive upward inventory revisions. Meanwhile the
northern hemisphere corn and soybean harvests havealmost finished while South American planting progresses.
Corn inventories are very tight heading into the inter-cropperiod. However, cheaper sugar cane ethanol imports to theUS should relieve some pressure from ethanol use. Locally
dry crop conditions and pending FSU export restrictionssupport wheat prices relative to those of other grains.
Ukrainian exports will almost certainly be restricted thiswinter, formally or otherwise, while Russia may follow suit
with little warning. Considering these risks are alreadylargely discounted and given relatively comfortableinventory levels, we expect rallies triggered by export
restrictions to be relatively short lived.
According to the NOAA there is currently only a small riskthat a full-blown El Nio event will develop going forward.ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation) indicators have been
neutral or indicated weak El Nio conditions this autumnalthough it now appears more likely they will be neutral
throughout the northern hemisphere winter. We regard thisas a very welcome development as it reduces the risk ofdisturbances in global weather patterns. While the inner
workings of ENSO are far from being fully understood,deviations from normal conditions are more likely to
negative impact global crop production despite beinglocally beneficial from time to time.
(CBOT, indexed, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
feb-11
mar-11
apr-11
maj-11
jun-11
jul-11
aug-11
sep-11
okt-11
nov-11
dec-11
jan-12
feb-12
mar-12
apr-12
maj-12
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Wheat
Soybeans
Corn
(WASDE, yearly data updated monthly)
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Wheat
Soybeans
Corn
(WASDE, monthly data, %, 2012/2013)
-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
jun-12
jul-12
aug-12
sep-12
okt-12
nov-12
Corn productionCorn stocksWheat production
Wheat stocksSoybean productionSoybean stocks
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, USDA, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
15/20
15
Commodities Monthly
Agriculture
(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)
Net speculative long positions in CBOT corn havetrended lower for the past three months, driven mainly
by decreasing numbers of longs but also by an increasingnumbers of shorts.
US ethanol producers remain profitable (albeit only just)due to high fuel prices. Domestic production continuesto fall back while imports of cheaper sugar cane ethanolare sky-rocketing to post-2008 highs as Brazilianproduction reaches its seasonal high.
Northern hemisphere planting is largely over whilesouthern hemisphere planting progresses well undersatisfactory conditions.
As expected, the EPA rejected the request to temporarilysuspend the US ethanol mandate to ease pressure on thecorn market.
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)
CBOT net long speculative positions in wheat continueto decrease, mainly as the result of a decline in longpositions. Short positions remain stable at the lower endof the five year range.
While winter wheat planting in the northern hemisphereends and crops become dormant, the Australian harvestis about to pick up speed. So far worries about a furtherdeterioration in weather conditions have proved
unjustified. US winter wheat crops have been planted. However,
early shoots face tough growing conditions leaving thecrops overall state so far worse than last year. However,plenty of time remains for improvement.
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)
Unlike corn and wheat, net speculative longs in CBOTsoybeans have rebounded slightly, probably due to
sharply lower prices opening up for temporary rebounds. While the US soybean harvest is finishing South
American planting is progressing well.
Chinese customs authorities report soybean importsremain sound despite adverse local economicconditions.
The oil-to-bean ratio appears to be rebounding slightlyfrom or at least stabilizing at an exceptionally low levelafter soybean oil prices were depressed by collapsingpalm oil prices.
Meal prices have begun to stabilize after rallying onstrong feed demand during H1-12.
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
16/20
16
Commodities Monthly
Agriculture
(CBOT, /bu) (CBOT, /bu)
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740760
780
800
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
790
800
810
820
830
840
850
860
870
880
890
900
910
920
930
940
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
(CBOT, /bu) (NYBOT, /lb)
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
jan-15
apr-15
jul-15
okt-15
12-09-14
12-10-16
12-11-16
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(NYBOT, /lb) (NYBOT, $/t)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
2
006
2
007
2
008
2
009
2
010
2
011
2
012
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
2
002
2
003
2
004
2
005
2
006
2
007
2
008
2
009
2
010
2
011
2
012
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
17/20
17
Commodities Monthly
Commodity related economic indicatorsEUROZONE Current Date Previous Date NextIndustrial production (%, YoY) -2,3 2012-09-30 -1,3 2012-08-31 2012-12-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) -2,5 2012-09-30 0,9 2012-08-31 2012-12-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 76,8 2012-12-31 77,9 2012-09-30
Manufacturing PMI 45,4 2012-10-31 46,1 2012-09-30 2012-11-22
Real GDP (%, YoY) -0,6 2012-09-30 -0,4 2012-06-30 2012-12-06
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,1 2012-09-30 -0,2 2012-06-30 2012-12-06
CPI (%, YoY) 2,5 2012-10-31 2,6 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
CPI (%, MoM) 0,2 2012-10-31 0,7 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
Consumer confidence -25,7 2012-10-31 -25,9 2012-09-30 2012-11-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,7 2012-10-31 2,8 2012-09-30
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,4 2012-10-31 0,2 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
Capacity utilization (%) 77,8 2012-10-31 78,2 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
Manufacturing PMI 51,7 2012-10-31 51,5 2012-09-30 2012-12-03
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,3 2012-09-30 2,1 2012-06-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,0 2012-09-30 1,3 2012-06-30 2012-11-29
CPI (%, MoM) 2,2 2012-10-31 2,0 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,1 2012-10-31 0,6 2012-09-30 2012-12-14
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,4 2011-03-31 103,1 2011-02-28Consumer confidence (Michigan) 84,9 2012-11-30 82,6 2012-10-31 2012-11-21
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 171 2012-10-31 148 2012-09-30 2012-12-07
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) -8,1 2012-09-30 -4,6 2012-08-31 2012-11-30
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -4,1 2012-09-30 -1,6 2012-08-31 2012-11-30
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 81,1 2012-09-30 85,8 2012-08-31
Manufacturing PMI 46,9 2012-10-31 48,0 2012-09-30 2012-11-30
Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2012-09-30 3,3 2012-06-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,9 2012-09-30 0,1 2012-06-30 2012-12-10
CPI (%, YoY) -0,8 2012-10-31 -0,7 2012-09-30 2012-11-30
CPI (%, MoM) 0,2 2012-09-30 0,1 2012-08-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 104,9 2011-02-28 104,2 2011-01-31
Consumer confidence 39,8 2012-10-31 40,4 2012-09-30
CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 9,6 2012-10-31 9,2 2012-09-30 2012-12-09
Manufacturing PMI 50,2 2012-10-31 49,8 2012-09-30 2012-12-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 7,4 2012-09-30 7,6 2012-06-30 2013-01-18
CPI (%, YoY) 1,7 2012-10-31 1,9 2012-09-30 2012-12-09
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2011-03-31 102,1 2011-02-28
Consumer confidence 106,1 2012-10-31 100,8 2012-09-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 15,9 2012-10-31 16,3 2012-09-30
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 20,5 2012-09-30 20,4 2012-06-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,2 2011-03-31 103,0 2011-02-28
Global manufacturing PMI 49,2 2012-10-31 48,8 2012-09-30
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
18/20
18
Commodities Monthly
PerformanceClosing
last weekYTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1284,54 1,3 -3,6 -1,6 -2,4 2,0UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1207,25 1,2 -3,6 -1,6 -2,5 -0,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1549,08 1,9 -3,5 -1,5 -1,5 24,7UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1493,17 0,1 -3,9 -2,7 -4,0 3,5UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1033,59 -1,1 -3,7 4,1 -3,9 -8,0UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2555,27 10,5 -1,7 7,8 -3,4 113,6UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1782,28 2,0 -4,0 -8,2 0,5 50,6Baltic Dry Index 1036,00 -42,3 5,6 43,9 -45,0 -90,5
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 86,67 -12,3 -5,9 -9,3 -15,5 -8,9Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 108,95 1,5 -5,3 -6,8 -2,6 18,9Aluminum (LME, $/t) 1951,00 -3,4 -0,3 5,9 -9,6 -23,5Copper (LME, $/t) 7605,00 0,1 -6,4 2,1 -1,6 8,0Nickel (LME, $/t) 15960,00 -14,7 -5,7 2,8 -12,0 -48,9Zinc (LME, $/t) 1920,00 4,1 1,2 7,6 -2,0 -24,0Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 335,00 -36,8 -2,9 -14,1 -37,4 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1714,70 9,4 -1,7 6,1 -3,4 117,9
Corn (CBOT, /bu) 727,00 12,5 -1,5 -8,9 13,1 91,6Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 838,00 28,4 -1,2 -2,8 35,9 11,8Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 1383,25 15,4 -7,4 -16,5 16,5 28,3
Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
Major upcoming commodity eventsDate Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, ~21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, ~22.30 CET (season) www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report December 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report December 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook December 11 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE December 11 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report November 29 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria December 12 www.opec.orgSources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
Contact listCOMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone MobileTorbjrn Iwarson Head of Commodities [email protected] +46 8 506 234 01
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES SWEDEN
Pr Melander Corporate [email protected] +46 8 506 234 75 +46 70 714 90 79
Karin Almgren Institutional [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76SALES NORWAY
Maximilian Brodin Corporate/Institutional [email protected] +47 22 82 72 73 +47 92 45 67 27
SALES FINLAND
Jussi Lepist Corporate/Institutional [email protected] +358 9 616 285 21 +358 40 844 187 7
SALES DENMARK
Peter Lauridsen Corporate/Institutional [email protected] +45 331 777 34 +45 616 211 59
TRADING
Niclas Egmar Corporate/Institutional [email protected] +46 8 506 234 55 +46 70-618 560 4
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
19/20
19
Commodities Monthly
COMMODITY RESEARCH DISCLAIMER
This statement affects your rightsThis report has been compiled by SEBs Commodity Research, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEB),
to provide background information only. It is confidential to the recipient, any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use ofthis communication is strictly prohibited.
Good faith & limitationsOpinions, projections and estimates contained in this report represent the authors present opinion and are subject to changewithout notice. Although information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable,
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to its correctness, completeness or accuracy of thecontents, and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. To the extent permitted by law, SEB accepts no liabilitywhatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.
DisclosuresThe analysis and valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions andestimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties; different assumptions could result in materially different results.The inclusion of any such valuations, projections and forecasts in this report should not be regarded as a representation or
warranty by or on behalf of the SEB Group or any person or entity within the SEB Group that such valuations, projections and
forecasts or their underlying assumptions and estimates will be met or realized. Past performance is not a reliable indicator offuture performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or relatedinvestment mentioned in this report. This document does not constitute investment advice and is being provided to you without
regard to your investment objectives or circumstances. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of thisdocument is urged to base investment decisions upon such investigations as they deem necessary. This document does notconstitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or solicitation of, any offer to subscribe for any securities or other financial
instruments.
Conflicts of InterestSEB has in place a Conflicts of Interest Policy designed, amongst other things, to promote the independence and objectivity ofreports produced by its Research departments, which are separated from the rest of SEB business areas by information barriers; as
such, research reports are independent and based solely on publicly available information. Your attention is drawn to the fact thata member of, or an entity associated with, SEB or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of such members (a)
may be represented on the board of directors or similar supervisory entity of the companies mentioned herein (b) may, to theextent permitted by law, have a position in the securities of (or options, warrants or rights with respect to, or interest in thesecurities of the companies mentioned herein or may make a market or act as principal in any transactions in such securities (c)
may, acting as principal or as agent, deal in investments in or with companies mentioned herein, and (d) may from time to timeprovide investment banking, underwriting or other services to, or solicit investment banking, underwriting or other business from
the companies mentioned herein.
RecipientsIn the UK, this report is directed at and is for distribution only to (I) persons who have professional experience in matters relatingto investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (The
Order) or (II) high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred toas relevant persons. This report must not be acted on or relied upon by persons in the UK who are not relevant persons. In the
US, this report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the
Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. U.S. persons wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so bycontacting Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEBAB). SEBAB accepts responsibility for the content of this report in
connection with its distribution in the US. The distribution of this document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions by law, andpersons into whose possession this documents comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
The SEB Group: members, memberships and regulators
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is incorporated in Sweden, as a Limited Liability Company. It is regulated byFinansinspektionen, and by the local financial regulators in each of the jurisdictions in which it has branches or subsidiaries,including in the UK, by the Financial Services Authority; Denmark by Finanstilsynet; Finland by Finanssivalvonta; Germanyby Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht and Norway by Finanstilsynet. In the US, SEBAB is a U.S. broker-dealer,registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). SEBAB is a direct subsidiary of SEB. SEB is active onmajor Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities, in as well as other non-Europeanequivalent markets, for trading in financial instruments. For a list of execution venues of which SEB is a member or
participant, visit http://www.seb.se.
-
7/30/2019 Commodities Monthly: Little change short term, up long term
20/20
www.seb.se
SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]
+47 9248 9230
Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]
+46 8 506 230 47