commodities monthly december 2010

8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010

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December 7, 2010

Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

SEB Commodities MonthlyHigh prices, but fundamentals point higher

=General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M

• Continued re-stocking of raw materials in China together withimproving consumer demand within the OECD area will benefitcommodity prices into 2011 with broad commodity indices likely toprint new all time highs

•

Continued low interest rates and generous liquidity providessupportive backdrop for commodities in 2011• Chinese monetary tightening likely to move the economy towards

a normalisation rather than an abrupt halt• The outlook is overall bullish but beware of temporary setbacks

due to the current high price levelsEnergy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M

• Our 2011 Brent crude oil average price forecast is adjusted from$80/b to $85/b on an improving growth outlook for 2011 while ouraverage oil price forecast for 2012 remains unchanged at $85/b

• Strengthening in the crude oil backwardation is not yet warranted• Brent crude oil likely to fall back towards the lower eighties as we

move into Q1-11 before eventually gathering strength to rally intothe US driving season

• Saudi Arabia’s official desired oil price range is now $70-90/bIndustrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M

• Global end user demand continues to improve as industrialproduction expands

• Further Chinese counter-inflation measures could temporarilydampen sector sentiment

• Chinese energy saving measures and upcoming restockingstrengthen our bullish view

• Introduction of physical ETPs likely to tighten the physical marketPrecious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M

• Gold is currently an attractive exposure with limited downside dueto high European sovereign debt risk

• Surplus liquidity, welcome neither in the US nor the EMs, isseeking a home, one alternative is gold

Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Agricultural commodities remain highly priced and therefore both

tactically and strategically vulnerable• Production is expected to normalize in 2011 and thus prices

should fall back• La Niña related weather disturbances could last until next

summer, triggering temporary rallies in selected commodities• Several agricultural commodities remain very sensitive to

additional production disturbances, e.g. due to low inventory levelsArrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.

THE NEXT COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE PUBLISHED ON FEBRUARY 1

N UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices (price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100) =

708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210

j a n - 0 9

f e b - 0 9

m a r - 0 9

a p r - 0 9

m a j - 0 9

j u n - 0 9 j u l - 0 9

a u g - 0 9

s e p - 0 9

o k t - 0 9

n o v - 0 9

d e c - 0 9

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1 0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1 0

j u n - 1 0 j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

Industrial MetalsPreciousMetalsEnergyAgriculture

=Performance overview (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-6-30369

1215182124273033

E q u i t i e s

C o m m o d i t i e s

E n e r g y

I n d u s t r i a l

m e t a l s

P r e c i o u s

m e t a l s

A g r i c u l t u r e

YTD(%) MoM(%)

Winners & Losers last month (closing prices, %) =

-16-12

-8-4048

1216202428

Z i n c

W h e a t

L e a d C o r n

S u g a r T i n

A l u m i n i u m

P l a t i n u m

C o f f e , A r a b i c a

C o c o a

N i c k e l

C O 2 ( E U A )

C o t t o n

S o y b e a n s

C o p p e r G o l d

P o w e r , C o n t .

W T I

B r e n t

U S N a t . G a s

S t e e l

U S H e a t . O i l

U S G a s o l i n e

P a l l a d i u m S i l v e r

P o w e r , N o r d i c

=

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SEB Commodity Research

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ÉÅçåçãóÛë= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= ëÉÅíçê= êÉëçêíáåÖ= íç=ÇáÉëÉä=ÖÉåÉê~íçêë=íç= éêçÇìÅÉ=íÜÉáê=çïå= éçïÉêK=^åçíÜÉê= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÉîÉåí= áå= É~êäó= kçîÉãÄÉê=

íÜ~í= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ÅçåíêáÄìíÉÇ= íç= ÇêáîáåÖ= _êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= éêáÅÉë= íçï~êÇë= AVMLÄ= ï~ë= p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~Ûë=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áíë=í~êÖÉí=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ê~åÖÉ=Ñêçã=ATMJUMLÄ=íç=ATMJVMLÄK==qÜÉ= ê~ääó= Å~ãÉ= íç= ~å= ~Äêìéí= ÉåÇ= çå= NO=kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ê~ãé~åí= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåÑä~íáçå=éêçãéíÉÇ= íÜÉ= ëí~êí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë= ãçåÉí~êó=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ= ÅóÅäÉ=~åÇ= éÉêáéÜÉê~ä=bìêçéÉ~å=ÇÉÄí=áëëìÉë=êÉJÉãÉêÖÉÇ=ïáíÜ=fêÉä~åÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉÑêçåí=çÑ= ã~êâÉí= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= ^ÑíÉê=Ü~îáåÖ= äçëí=~ää= É~êäó=ãçåíÜ=Ö~áåë= _êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=êÉÄçìåÇÉÇ=~í= áíë= ÉåÇ=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ê~éáÇ=Ççää~ê=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=~åÇ=ÉëÅ~ä~íáåÖ=br=ÇÉÄí= ïçêêáÉëK=`êìÇÉ=çáä= ï~ë= ÇêáîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉê=ã~áåäó= Äó= ~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áãéêçîÉãÉåí= áå= rp=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= áåÇáÅ~íçêë= áåÅäìÇáåÖ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= àçÄäÉëë=Åä~áãëI=ÄÉííÉê=ÅçåëìãÉê=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ= êÉí~áä= ë~äÉëK= få= ~ÇÇáíáçå= ÅçäÇ= ëéÉääë= áå=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=rp=ÑçêíáÑáÉÇ=~=éêÉJïáåíÉê=ÉåÉêÖó=éìêÅÜ~ëáåÖ=ê~ääóK==

Monthly global demand estimates = 2010

(mb/d)Revision

(kb/d)2011

(mb/d)Revision

(kb/d)IEA 87.30 +380 88.50 +350EIA 86.33 +270 87.77 +330

OPEC 85.78 +190 86.95 +310=däçÄ~ä=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Éëíáã~íÉë=Ñçê=OMNM=~åÇ=OMNN= ïÉêÉ= êÉîáëÉÇ= ÜáÖÜÉê= áå= ~ää= íÜêÉÉ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉêÛë= çáä= ã~êâÉí= êÉéçêíëK= få= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ=êÉéçêíë= íÜÉ= rp= aÉé~êíãÉåí= çÑ= båÉêÖó= EalbF=~åÇ= lmb`= êÉîáëÉÇ= íÜÉáê= OMNM= EHOTM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKPP= ãÄLÇX= HNVM= âÄLÇ= íç= URKTU= ãÄLÇ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóF= ~åÇ= OMNN= EHPPM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKTT=ãÄLÇX= HPNM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKVR= ãÄLÇ= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóF=ÇÉã~åÇ= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë= ÜáÖÜÉê=ÇìÉ= íç= ëíêçåÖÉê= íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=lbà=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=ìéï~êÇ= êÉîáëáçå= çÅÅìêêÉÇ= áå= íÜÉ= ãçëí=áãéçêí~åí= çÑ= íÜÉ= íÜêÉÉ= ãçåíÜäó= êÉéçêíëI= íÜ~í=éìÄäáëÜÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=fbÎ=ïÜáÅÜ=ê~áëÉÇ=áíë=OMNM=~åÇ=OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= HPUM= âÄLÇ= íç=UTKPM=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= HPRM= âÄLÇ= íç= UUKRM= ãÄLÇ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó= ïáíÜ= ÅçêêÉëéçåÇáåÖ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉë= Ñçê=lbà= ~åÇ= åçåJlbà= ÇÉã~åÇ= çÑ= NPM= âÄLÇ=EOMNMF=~åÇ=NMM=âÄLÇ=EOMNNF=~åÇ=ORM=âÄLÇ=EO~åÇ=OMNNF= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóK= bëíáã~íÉÇ=`ÜáåÉëÉ= Ö~ë=~åÇ=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=nQJNM=íç=nNJNN=ï~ë=êÉîáëÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê= ÇìÉ= íç= íÜÉ= ìëÉ= çÑ= ÇáÉëÉä= ÖÉåÉê~íçêë= íç=ÅçãéÉåë~íÉ=Ñçê=ÉäÉÅíêáÅáíó=ëÜçêí~ÖÉë=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíJäÉÇ=ÅäçëìêÉë=çÑ=Åç~ä=ÑáêÉÇ=éçïÉê=éä~åíëK= qçí~ä= lbà= çáä= áåÇìëíêó= ëíçÅâë= ÑÉää= Äó=QOKU=ãÄ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=íÜÉáê=ä~êÖÉëí=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=ëáåÅÉ=aÉÅÉãÄÉê= OMMV= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ëáåÅÉ= j~êÅÜ= íÜáë=

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mçëáíáçåÉÇ= çå= íçé= çÑ= áíë= óÉ~êäó= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí=ïáää=éêçÄ~Ääó= ÅçåíáåìÉ=ÉáíÜÉê=ëáÇÉï~óë=çê= ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ãçîÉ=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=j~ó=ÜáÖÜ=~äëç=ëìÖÖÉëíë=~=ãçêÉ=ÄìääáëÜ=íçåÉK=fÑ=íÜÉ=ãçîÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉë=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVVMë=íêÉåÇ=äáåÉI=ÅìêêÉåíäó=êìååáåÖ= àìëí= ÄÉäçï= ANMMLÄI= ïáää= ÄÉ= í~êÖÉíÉÇK= ^= aÉÅÉãÄÉê=ÅäçëÉ=ÄÉäçï=AUOKQMLÄ=ÅçåÑáêãë=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=~=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=äçïÉêK== kçêÇáÅ=mçïÉê ==

^ÑíÉê=ëÉîÉê~ä= ãçåíÜë= çÑ=ëí~ÄäÉ= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= ~åÇ=

ê~åÖÉ= íê~ÇáåÖ= Ñçêï~êÇë= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí= ãçîÉÇ=ëÜ~êéäó= ÜáÖÜÉê= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ~= ëíêçåÖ= ÜáÖÜ=éêÉëëìêÉ= ÑçêãÉÇ= çîÉê= pÅ~åÇáå~îá~= ÄêáåÖáåÖ=ïáíÜ= áí= îÉêó= ÅçäÇ= Çêó= ïÉ~íÜÉê= ïáíÜ=íÉãéÉê~íìêÉë=NMJNO=ÇÉÖêÉÉë=ÄÉäçï=åçêã~äK=péçí=éêáÅÉë= êçëÉ= ê~éáÇäó= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ= Ü~äÑ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉê=~ë=Åçåëìãéíáçå=êçëÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=~äêÉ~Çó=ëíê~áåÉÇ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉêK==péçí= éêáÅÉë= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ëÉííäÉÇ= ~í= bro=RQKTULjtÜ= ÑçääçïáåÖ= ~= ëíêçåÖ= ìéíêÉåÇ= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ÜáÖÜ=J=bro=TQKTVLjtÜ=Ó=çÅÅìêêáåÖ=çå=PM= kçîÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=pïÉÇáëÜ=éêáÅÉ=~êÉ~=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå= ëÉííäÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ= íÜÉ= ëóëíÉã= éêáÅÉ= ~í= bro=RSKOSLjtÜK= `çåîÉêëÉäóI= dÉêã~å= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë=ëí~ÄáäáëÉÇ=ïÉää=ÄÉäçï=íÜÉáê=kçêÇáÅ=ÅçìåíÉêé~êíë=~í=bro=QUKRPLjtÜK==qÜÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= Ü~Ç= ~äêÉ~Çó= ã~ÇÉ= ê~éáÇ=Ö~áåë= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë=ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë=áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ=ÅçäÇ=ïÉ~íÜÉêK=nNJNN=êçëÉ= PRB= Ñêçã= bro= RMKQRLjtÜ= íç= bro=STKVRLjtÜ= çîÉê= NO= íê~ÇáåÖ= Ç~óëK= fãéäáÉÇ=îçä~íáäáíáÉë= ãçîÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ= SRB= ~åÇ= ä~êÖÉ=îçäìãÉë= ïÉêÉ= íê~ÇÉÇ= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= éêáÅÉ= ê~ääóK=`ìêêÉåíäóI=nNJNN=íê~ÇÉë=~ÄçîÉ=bro=TOLjtÜI=~=åÉï= êÉÅçêÇ= ÜáÖÜK= ^í= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= voJNN=íê~ÇÉë= ~êçìåÇ= bro= RTKRLjtÜK= få= kçîÉãÄÉêI=íÜÉ= kçêÇáÅ= Ñêçåí= óÉ~ê= EvoJNNF= íê~ÇÉÇ= ~í= ~=éêÉãáìã= íç= íÜÉ= dÉêã~å= ã~êâÉí= Ñçê= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=áå=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êëK==kçêÇáÅ= êÉÖáçå~ä= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå= îÉêó= ÄìääáëÜK= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= åìÅäÉ~ê= ëáíì~íáçå= áë= Ñ~ê= ÄÉííÉê=íÜÉå=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áë=ãçêÉ=ëíê~áåÉÇK=^í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ= ïêáíáåÖI=~=íçí~ä=çÑ=åáåÉ=çìí=çÑ=éä~ååÉÇ=íÉå=pïÉÇáëÜ=êÉ~Åíçêë=~êÉ=çåäáåÉ=

ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉîÉåíÜ=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=Ä~Åâ=çåäáåÉ=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=aÉÅÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=

áë=~í=JQQ=qtÜ=~í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=~ë=ïÉ=Ñ~ÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÅçäÇÉëí=ëí~êí=íç=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=áå=OM=óÉ~êëK=tÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= ÜóÇêç= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= íç=ïÉ~âÉå=ÑìêíÜÉê= áÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçäÇ=ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÅçåíáåìÉëK==




Q

CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price (NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing) =

102030405060708090

100110120130

140150

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

NYMEX WTIICEBrent

=

US crude oil inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data) =

300

310

320

330

340

350

360370

380

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2005-2009 avg.2009

2010

=

OIL PRODUCTS=

Gasoline and heating oil prices (NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing) =

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

NYMEX GasolineNYMEX Heating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data) =

110120130140

150160170180190200210220230240

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.Gasoline 2010

Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.Distillate fuel oil 2010

=

POWER=

Nordic power price (Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing) =

20253035404550556065707580

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Continental power price (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing) =

202530354045505560657075

80859095

2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=




R

CO 2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price (ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

US natural gas prices (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing) =

0123456789

101112131415

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

==

FUTURES CURVES=

WTI (NYMEX, $/b)=

8182

8384

85868788899091

j a n - 1 1

a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2

o k t - 1 2

j a n - 1 3

a p r - 1 3 j u l - 1 3

o k t - 1 3

j a n - 1 4

a p r - 1 4 j u l - 1 4

o k t - 1 4

j a n - 1 5

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

Brent (ICE, $/b) =

8384

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

j a n - 1 1

a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2

o k t - 1 2

j a n - 1 3

a p r - 1 3 j u l - 1 3

o k t - 1 3

j a n - 1 4

a p r - 1 4 j u l - 1 4

o k t - 1 4

j a n - 1 5

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

==

Heating oil (NYMEX, ¢/gal)=

220224228232

236240244248252

256260

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

US natural gas (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

d e c - 1 0

a p r - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

a p r - 1 2

a u g - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

a p r - 1 3

a u g - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

a p r - 1 4

a u g - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

a p r - 1 5

a u g - 1 5

d e c - 1 5

a p r - 1 6

a u g - 1 6

d e c - 1 6

a p r - 1 7

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

===





S

=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

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bñÅÜ~åÖÉ= qê~ÇÉÇ= mêçÇìÅíë= EbqmëF= áë= ~äëç=ëìééçêíáîÉK=tÉ=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=ÄìääáëÜ=îáÉï=çå=íÜÉ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ãÉí~äë=ëÉÅíçê=ÄçíÜ=í~ÅíáÅ~ääó=~åÇ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääóK= `çééÉê= ~åÇ=~äìãáåáìã= ~êÉ=çìê=éêÉÑÉêêÉÇ=ÉñéçëìêÉë=ïáíÜ=íáÖÜí=ëìééäó=Ñçê=ÅçééÉê= ~åÇ= ÜáÖÜ= éêçÇìÅíáçåë= Åçëíë= Ñçê=~äìãáåáìã=íÜÉ=ã~áå=êÉ~ëçåëK==fåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= çéÉåÉÇ= kçîÉãÄÉê= çå= ~= ÄìääáëÜ=åçíÉI= éìëÜÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê= Äó=~= ëçÑíÉê= Ççää~êI=nbO= ëíáãìäìë= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~åÇ= ëçäáÇ=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Ç~í~= Ñêçã= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ~åÇ=ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ= ã~êâÉíë= áå= ÖÉåÉê~äK= eçïÉîÉêI=ëÉåíáãÉåí= èìáÅâäó= íìêåÉÇ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ÇìÉ= íç=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= áå= `Üáå~= ~åÇ= bìêçéÉK= få= `Üáå~=

ÅçåÅÉêåë= ÖêÉï= çîÉê= íÜÉ= ÉñíÉåí= íç= ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ=`ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= ãáÖÜí= ëäçï= ~ë= ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=íïáÅÉ= ê~áëÉÇ= íÜÉ= êÉëÉêîÉ= êÉèìáêÉãÉåí= ê~íáç= Ñçê=íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë= Ä~åâë= ~åÇ= ~äëç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íÜÉ=ÇÉéçëáí= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉë= íç=ÅçãÄ~í= ÉñÅÉëëáîÉ=äÉåÇáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçåK=få=bìêçéÉI=íÜÉ= fêáëÜ= ëáíì~íáçå= ÄÉÅ~ãÉ= ìåëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåíì~ä=êÉëÅìÉ=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=Ñ~áäÉÇ=íç=~ää~ó= ã~êâÉí= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= fåëíÉ~Ç= ~ííÉåíáçå=êÉÑçÅìëÉÇ= çå= mçêíìÖ~ä= ~åÇ= pé~áåK= qÜÉ= ã~áå=áãé~Åí= çå= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= Ñêçã= íÜáë=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí= ï~ë= áåÇáêÉÅí= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖ=Ççää~êK= mêáÅÉë= äÉîÉääÉÇ= çìí= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜK= qÜÉ= ÄÉëí= éÉêÑçêãÉê= áå= íÜÉ=áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~ä= ëÉÅíçê= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ï~ë=ÅçééÉê= EHOKMBFI= ÑçääçïÉÇ= Äó= åáÅâÉä= EHMKPBFI=~äìãáåáìã=EJOKVBFI=íáå=EJQKPBF=~åÇ=äÉ~Ç=EJUKVBFK=qÜÉ=ïçêëí=ï~ë=òáåÅ=EJNOKUBFK==

LME prices and inventories m/m

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

A l u m i n i u m

C o p p e r N i c k e l Z i n c

L e a d T i n S t e e l

Price (%) Inventories(%)

=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ== ^äìãáåáìã ==

^äìãáåìã=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=OOQOJOQSVLí=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=Ççïå=ëçãÉ=OKVB=~í= rpa= OOTRLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ÑÉää=ëìÄëí~åíá~ääó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ= ÄÉÑçêÉ= êÉÅçîÉêáåÖ= ëäáÖÜíäóK= `~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë=

êçëÉ= ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó= Ñêçã= ~å= ~äêÉ~Çó= ÜáÖÜ= äÉîÉä=ERKNBFK=`ÜáåÉëÉ=~äìãáåáìã= êÉëÉêîÉë= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=êÉäÉ~ëÉÇI= é~êíäó= ÅçãéÉåë~íáåÖ= Ñçê= éêçÇìÅíáçå=Åìíë=ÇìÉ=íç=ÉåÉêÖó=ë~îáåÖ=ãÉ~ëìêÉëK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ã~êâÉí=Éëíáã~íÉë=çåäó=~êçìåÇ=çåÉ=ãáääáçå= íçååÉë= çìí= çÑ= çîÉê= OM= ãí= áåëí~ääÉÇ=Å~é~Åáíó=~êÉ=~ÑÑÉÅíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÉåÉêÖó=Åä~ãéÇçïå=ïÜáäÉ= ~ééêçñáã~íÉäó= íÜêÉÉ= ãáääáçå= íçååÉë= çÑ=åÉï= Å~é~Åáíó= ~êÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= çåäáåÉ= áå= OMNNK= fí= áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=íÜ~í=`Üáå~=ïáää=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~=åÉí=áãéçêíÉê= çÑ= ~äìãáåáìã= êÉëìäíáåÖ= áå= ~= íáÖÜíÉê=ã~êâÉí= Ä~ä~åÅÉK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~äìãáåáìã= êÉã~áåë=

ïÉää=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ã~êÖáå~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Åçëíë=çÑ=~êçìåÇ=rpa=OMMMLí=~åÇ=áë=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖÉê=Å~êÇë= áå= íÜÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= ëÉÅíçê= ÇìÉ= íç=




T

äáãáíÉÇ=ÇçïåëáÇÉK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENMNOMOFW= ^äìãáåáìã=ëíáää=íê~ÇÉë=ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=OMNM=ê~åÖÉK=tÉ=Çç=åçí=ÉñéÉÅí=éêáÅÉë=íç=Éñáí=áí=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= äáâÉäáÜççÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉó= ïáää= Ñ~ää= ÑìêíÜÉê=ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= ê~åÖÉ= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ= é~ëí= ãçåíÜÛë= íçéëáÇÉ=ëéáâÉëK=AONMMLí=~ééÉ~êë=~=éçíÉåíá~ä=í~êÖÉíK=

=`çééÉê ==

`çééÉê= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa= UNQMJUURULí= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= OKMB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í=rpa= UPSMLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ã~áåí~áåÉÇ= ~=åçï= åáåÉ= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ= ãçåíÜ= ÇçïåíêÉåÇK=`~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë= Ü~îÉ= ëíÉ~Çáäó= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç=VKNBK= qÜÉ= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= `çééÉê= píìÇó= dêçìé=Ü~ë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=~=PSP=âí=ÅçééÉê=ã~êâÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ñçê=íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ÉáÖÜí= ãçåíÜë= çÑ= OMNM= ïáíÜ= ÑìêíÜÉê=ÇÉÑáÅáíë= äáâÉäó= ÖçáåÖ= Ñçêï~êÇK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë=

ã~ó= ÄÉÅçãÉ= ä~êÖÉäó= ÇÉéäÉíÉÇ= áå= OMNNK= tÉ~â=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=ï~ë=ä~êÖÉäó=ÇìÉ=íç=å~íáçå~ä=ÜçäáÇ~óë=~åÇ=~=êÉäìÅí~åÅÉ=íç=Äìó=~í=íÜÉ=éêÉî~áäáåÖ= ÜáÖÜ= éêáÅÉK= eçïÉîÉêI= ÅçééÉê= áë= ~=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääó=áãéçêí~åí=ãÉí~ä=Ñçê=`Üáå~=~åÇ=çåÉ=ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ïáää= åÉÉÇ= íç= ÅçåíáåìÉ=áãéçêíáåÖ= áå= ä~êÖÉ= îçäìãÉë= êÉÖ~êÇäÉëë= çÑ= íÜÉ=éêáÅÉK= `çééÉê= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= Éåàçó= íÜÉ= ëÉÅíçêÛë=ëíêçåÖÉëí= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äëK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë=ENMNOMOFW=`çééÉê= áë= ëíáää= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= ïáíÜ=OMMSLOMMTLOMMU= éÉ~âë= ~í= AUPPRÓUVQMLíK= c~áäÉÇ=kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ííÉãéíë= íç= ãçîÉ= ~ÄçîÉ= éêÉîáçìë= éÉ~âë=áåÇáÅ~íÉ= ~= Ñ~äëÉ= ÄêÉ~â= ~åÇ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ~å= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=ÇçïåëáÇÉ= ÅçêêÉÅíáçå= êáëâK= ^= éçíÉåíá~ä= ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ÇáîÉêÖÉåÅÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=éêáÅÉ=~åÇ=ãçãÉåíìã=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=EÜáÖÜÉê=ÜáÖÜ=áå=éêáÅÉLäçïÉê=ÜáÖÜ=áå=ãçãÉåíìãF=~äëç=íÜêÉ~íÉåë=~=ÅçééÉê=éêáÅÉ=êÉîÉêë~ä=íç=~êçìåÇ=ATRMMLíK== káÅâÉä ==

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ÇáëÅçìåíÉÇ= ïÉ= ÜçäÇ= ~= åÉìíê~ä= ëÉÅíçêJêÉä~íáîÉ=îáÉï= çå= åáÅâÉäK= mêáÅÉë= ÄÉäçï= AOMMMMLí= ~êÉ=

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éä~ÖìÉ=íÜÉ=òáåÅ=ã~êâÉíK=qÜÉ=êÉäÉ~ëÉ=çÑ=`ÜáåÉëÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ÉñÉêíÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=~å=~äêÉ~Çó= ÇÉéêÉëëÉÇ= ëáíì~íáçåK= j~êÖáå~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå= Åçëíë= ~êÉ= ìåäáâÉäó= íç= ëìééçêí= òáåÅ=éêáÅÉë= ìåíáä= íÜÉó= ãçîÉ= ïÉää= ÄÉäçï= AOMMMLíI= ÄÉáåÖ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~âÉëí=Å~êÇ=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉÅíçêK=kç=êÉäáÉÑ=~ééÉ~êë= äáâÉäó= ìåíáä= ïÉää= áåíç= OMNNK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW= ^= éçíÉåíá~ä= ÇçìÄäÉ= íçé= Eåçí=ÅçåÑáêãÉÇ=ìåíáä=íÜÉ=éêáÅÉ=ÄêÉ~âë=ÄÉäçï=ANRTTLíF=~åÇ=~=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ÉåÖìäÑáåÖ=Å~åÇäÉ=ëÉí=áå=kçîÉãÄÉê=ã~âÉ=~=ÇçïåëáÇÉ= ãçîÉ= ãçêÉ= äáâÉäó= íÜ~å= ~å= ìéëáÇÉK= tÉ=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=ÉñéÉÅí=éêáÅÉë=íç= ÇêáÑí=Ççïåï~êÇI=í~êÖÉíáåÖ=íÜÉ=äçï=ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=OMNM=áåíÉêî~äI=áKÉK=ANRTTLíK==píÉÉä ==

ijb=ëíÉÉä=ÄáääÉíë=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=RNMJRONLí=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=PKVB=ÜáÖÜÉê=~í=rpa= ROMLíK= ^ÑíÉê= ~= AQPRLí= ~ìíìãå= äçï= áå=lÅíçÄÉêI=ëíÉÉä=ÄáääÉíë= àìãéÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ= ARMMLí=äáåÉ= ~í= íÜÉ= îÉêó= ëí~êí= çÑ= kçîÉãÄÉê= ÄÉÑçêÉ=íê~ÇáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=rpa=RNMJROMLí=ê~åÖÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜK= cêçã= É~êäó= lÅíçÄÉê= íÜÉ= ëíÉÉä=Åçåíê~Åí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=Åçëí=éêÉëëìêÉ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= qpf= `Üáå~= áêçå= çêÉ= éêáÅÉ=Ö~áåáåÖ=ÅäçëÉ=íç=OMB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=éÉêáçÇ=áå=èìÉëíáçå=ïÜÉêÉçÑ= NOKRB= çÅÅìêêÉÇ= áå= kçîÉãÄÉêK= qpf=`Üáå~= áêçå= çêÉ= ÅäçëÉÇ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= ~í= ANSTKULíK=tÉëíÉêå=bìêçéÉ=áë=ëíáää=ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ=ïáíÜ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ïáíÜ= ëÉÖãÉåíÉÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= áå= ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅíë=ïÜáäÉ= ëçãÉ= ÜáÖÜ= î~äìÉ= åáÅÜÉ= éêçÇìÅíë= ~êÉ=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=íáÖÜí=ëìééäó=ïáíÜ=äçåÖ=äÉ~Ç=íáãÉëK=qìêâÉó= Ü~ë= ãçîÉÇ= áåíç= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~Åíáîáíó= ~åÇ=êÉëíçÅâáåÖK= mäÉåíó= çÑ= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~äë= Ü~îÉ= ÄÉÉå=ÑäçïáåÖ= íç= qìêâÉó= ~ë= ~= êÉëìäí= ïÜáÅÜ= ~ãçåÖ=çíÜÉê=íÜáåÖë=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëìééçêíáîÉ=Ñçê=bìêçéÉ~å=ëÅê~é= ãÉí~ä= éêáÅÉë= ïáíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=

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U

ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Aluminium inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

SHFE

COMEX

LME

==

COPPER=

Copper price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Copper inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

SHFE

COMEX

LME

=

NICKEL=

Nickel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

450005000055000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Nickel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

===





V

ZINC=

Zinc price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Zinc inventories (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=

Lead price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Lead inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

TIN=

Tin price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Tin inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

===





NM

STEEL=

Steel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =

250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600625650

j a n - 0 9

m a r - 0 9

m a j - 0 9

j u l - 0 9

s e p - 0 9

n o v - 0 9

j a n - 1 0

m a r - 1 0

m a j - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

=

Steel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

j u l - 0 8

o k t - 0 8

j a n - 0 9

a p r - 0 9 j u l - 0 9

o k t - 0 9

j a n - 1 0

a p r - 1 0 j u l - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

=

FUTURES CURVES=

Aluminium (LME, $/t)=

225022752300

2325

23502375240024252450

24752500

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

Copper (LME, $/t)=

690071007300

7500

7700790081008300850087008900

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

==

Nickel (LME, $/t)=

200002025020500207502100021250215002175022000

222502250022750230002325023500

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

10-10-2910-12-03

10-11-30

=

Zinc (LME, $/t)=

2075210021252150217522002225225022752300

2325235023752400242524502475

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ




NN

=PRECIOUS METALS==

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íÜÉ= rp= åçê= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ï~åí= íê~ÇÉ=ëìêéäìë= Ççää~êëI= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ä~ííÉê= éêÉîÉåíáåÖ=ëìÅÜ= Ñäçïë= Äó= áãéçëáåÖ= í~êáÑÑë= íç= ~îçáÇ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖI= êÉëìäíáåÖ= áå= ëìêéäìë= äáèìáÇáíó=ëÉÉâáåÖ= çíÜÉê= ~ëëÉíë= áåÅäìÇáåÖ= Ñçê= Éñ~ãéäÉ=ÖçäÇK= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåîÉëíçêë= ï~åíáåÖ= ~= ÜÉÇÖÉ=~Ö~áåëí= ê~éáÇäó= êáëáåÖ= áåÑä~íáçå= ÅçìäÇ= ~äëç=éêçîáÇÉ= ëìééçêí= Ñçê= ~å= ~äêÉ~Çó= ÄìääáëÜ=çìíäççâK= qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= ÄçíÜ= çìê= í~ÅíáÅ~ä= ~åÇ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ= ÖçäÇ= ã~êâÉí= îáÉïë= êÉã~áå= ÄìääáëÜK=qÜÉ= çåäó= éçíÉåíá~ä= Ç~êâ= ÅäçìÇë= áå= ~å=çíÜÉêïáëÉ= ÅäÉ~ê= ëâó= ~êÉ= ~= ëïáÑí= íìêå= áå=bìêçéÉ~å= ëÉåíáãÉåí= ~åÇ= ~å= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=lb`a=êÉÅçîÉêóK==dçäÇ=ï~ë=ÇêáîÉå=ìéï~êÇ=íç=~=åÉï=åçãáå~ä=~ää=íáãÉ=ÜáÖÜ=EANQOQKPMLçòíF=áå=É~êäó=kçîÉãÄÉê=~ë=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=êçìåÇ=çÑ=rp=èì~åíáí~íáîÉ=É~ëáåÖ=ï~ë=êçääÉÇ= çìíK=dOM= åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=ä~íÉê=áå= íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=Ñ~áäÉÇ= ÅçãéäÉíÉäó= íç= ~ääÉîá~íÉ= ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉ=ÇÉî~äì~íáçå=ÅçåÅÉêåëK=jÉ~åïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=ëáíì~íáçå=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=fêáëÜ=ëáíì~íáçåI=ëíáãìä~íáåÖ=ë~ÑÉ=Ü~îÉå=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖ= Ççää~ê= ëççå= íççâ= Åçåíêçä=ÇÉéêÉëëáåÖ=ÖçäÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=fêáëÜ=Ä~áäçìí=ëáíì~íáçå=

åÉîÉê=~ÅèìáêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=áåíÉåëáíó=~ë=íÜÉ=dêÉÉâI=ÇìêáåÖ= ïÜáÅÜ= ÖçäÇ= êçëÉ= ~äçåÖëáÇÉ= íÜÉ= Ççää~êK=_ìí= ïáíÜ= fêÉä~åÇ= çìí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ï~ó= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí=êÉÑçÅìëÉÇ= çå= íÜçëÉ= ÅçìåíêáÉë= åÉñí= áå= äáåÉI= áKÉK=mçêíìÖ~äI= pé~áå= ~åÇ= fí~äóK= táíÜ= îÉêó= äáííäÉ=áåíÉêÉëí=áå=mçêíìÖ~ä=~ë=~=Ä~áäçìí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ÄçíÜ=pé~áå= ~åÇ= fí~äó= ~êÉ= ãìÅÜ= ãçêÉ= éêçÄäÉã~íáÅK=táíÜ=íÜÉáê=ÄçåÇ=óáÉäÇë=~åÇ=`apë=ëí~êíáåÖ=íç=êáëÉ=íçï~êÇë= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÖçäÇ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áå=í~åÇÉã=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Ççää~êK=lîÉê=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜI=íÜÉ=íçé=éÉêÑçêãÉê=áå=íÜÉ=éêÉÅáçìë=ãÉí~äë=ëÉÅíçê=ï~ë=ëáäîÉê=EHNQKTBFI=ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=é~ää~Çáìã=EHUKTBF=

~åÇ= ÖçäÇ= EHOKMBFK= mä~íáåìã= ï~ë= íÜÉ= ïçêëí=éÉêÑçêãÉê=EJOKQBFK==

pìêéêáëáåÖäóI= éÜóëáÅ~ä=ÖçäÇ=bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ=êÉã~áåÉÇ= ëí~ÄäÉ= íÜêçìÖÜçìí= íÜÉ= ä~ëí= ï~îÉ= çÑ=bìêçéÉ~å= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= `çãÄáåÉÇ= ÜçäÇáåÖë= çÑ=ã~àçê=éêçîáÇÉêë=ÑÉää=Ä~Åâ=ëäáÖÜíäó=Äó=MKT=íçååÉë=íç=OMUSKU=íçååÉë=áå=kçîÉãÄÉê=ÄÉÑçêÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=çåÅÉ= ~Ö~áå=áå=É~êäó=aÉÅÉãÄÉêI= ëìÖÖÉëíáåÖ= íÜ~í=Éìêç= ÜçäÇÉêë= ~êÉ= åçí= óÉí= ÇÉëéÉê~íÉ= íç= ÑáåÇ= ~å=~äíÉêå~íáîÉ=íç=íÜÉáê=ÅìêêÉåÅóK==qïç= çìí= çÑ= íÜêÉÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= éêÉÅáçìë= ãÉí~äë=çìíéÉêÑçêãÉÇ= ÖçäÇ= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= J= ëáäîÉê= ~åÇ=é~ää~ÇáìãK=_çíÜ=êÉÄçìåÇÉÇ=ëíêçåÖäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜK=páäîÉê=Ü~ë=éÉêÑçêãÉÇ=ïÉää=é~êíäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëíêçåÖ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Äìí=ã~áåäó= ~ë= íÜÉ= êÉëìäí= çÑ= êçÅâ= ëçäáÇ= áåîÉëíçê=ÇÉã~åÇK=páäîÉê=Åçáå=ë~äÉë=Ü~îÉ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=êÉÅçêÇ=ÜáÖÜë= ~åÇ= éÜóëáÅ~ä= bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë= ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç=êáëÉ=ëíÉ~Çáäó=ìåäáâÉ=ÖçäÇ=Eìé=RVQ=íçååÉë=íç=NQTUM=íçååÉë= áå= kçîÉãÄÉêFK= mÜóëáÅ~ä= é~ää~Çáìã= ~åÇ=éä~íáåìã=bqc=ÜçäÇáåÖë=~äëç=ãçîÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉêK=qÜÉ=íïç= ãÉí~äë= ïÉêÉ= ëìééçêíÉÇ= ã~áåäó= Äó= ~å=ÉñéäçëáîÉ= ÖäçÄ~ä= êÉÅçîÉêó= áå= íÜÉ= ~ìíç= ëÉÅíçêK=táíÜ= ÖêçïíÜ= áå= ÇÉã~åÇ= ã~áåäó= áåîçäîáåÖ=Ö~ëçäáåÉ= éçïÉêÉÇ= Å~êë= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= ÄÉííÉê=ëìáíÉÇ=Ñçê=Ö~ëçäáåÉ=~ìíç=Å~í~äóëíë=áí=Ü~ë=íÉåÇÉÇ=íç=çìíéÉêÑçêã=éä~íáåìãK=^=ÅÉåíê~ä=áëëìÉ=áå= íÜÉ=é~ää~Çáìã= ã~êâÉí= áë= oìëëá~å= ëí~íÉ=áåîÉåíçêáÉëI=~ÅÅìãìä~íÉÇ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ä~ëí=

ÅÉåíìêóI=~åÇ= ~å=áãéçêí~åí=ëçìêÅÉ= çÑ=ëìééäó= áå=êÉÅÉåí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉëK= qÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= êìãçìêÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êìååáåÖ=äçïK==qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW=dçäÇÛë=ãçîÉ=ÜáÖÜÉê=ÅçåíáåìÉë= ïáíÜ= ÑÉï= ëáÖåë=çÑ= ïÉ~âåÉëë= ~éé~êÉåíK= få=íÜÉ=Ç~áäó=ÅÜ~êí=áí=áë=ÉëëÉåíá~ä=íç=êÉã~áå=çå=íçé=çÑ=íÜÉANPNRJNPPMLçòí= ê~åÖÉ= íç= ÉåëìêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ÄìääáëÜ= éêÉëëìêÉK=lìê=åÉñí=í~êÖÉí=áë=äçÅ~íÉÇ=~êçìåÇ=ANQRMJNRRMLçòíK==

Gold and selected currencies vs. USD

-10-8-6-4-202468

101214161820222426

28

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM (%)

=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ==




NO

GOLD=

Gold price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =

200300400500600700800900

1000110012001300

14001500

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Gold to silver ratio (front month, weekly closing) =

444852566064687276808488

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

==

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =

2468

1012141618202224262830

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Platinum and palladium prices (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =

100

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0 300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300Palladium (left axis)Platinum (right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) =

1350

1375

1400

1425

1450

1475

1500

1525

1550

1575

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

m a r - 1 5

j u n - 1 5

s e p - 1 5

d e c - 1 5

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

Silver (COMEX, $/ozt)

24

25

26

27

2829

30

31

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

s e p - 1 4

d e c - 1 4

m a r - 1 5

j u n - 1 5

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

===





NP

AGRICULTURE=

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íÜ~í= ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉë= ~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ= ïáíÜ= i~= ká¥~=ÅçìäÇ= éÉêëáëí= ìåíáä= íÜÉ= ëìããÉê= áåëíÉ~Ç= çÑ=Ñ~ÇáåÖ=çìí=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëéêáåÖK==^ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä= ÅçããçÇáíó= éêáÅÉë= ÑÉää= Ä~Åâ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ~= ëíêçåÖ= Ççää~ê=~åÇ= ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= ÅçåÅÉêåë= ÄÉÖ~å= ëÜ~âáåÖ=ëçãÉ= ëéÉÅìä~íçêë= çìí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉíK= qÜÉ=ê~ääó=ã~áåí~áåÉÇ=áíë=ãçãÉåíìã=Ñçê=~êçìåÇ=çåÉ=ïÉÉâ=áåíç= kçîÉãÄÉê= ÄÉÑçêÉ= ëí~ääáåÖK= qÜÉ= r_p=_äççãÄÉêÖ=ëÉÅíçê=éêáÅÉ=áåÇÉñ=ÑÉää=QKQB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜK= `çêå= äçëí= UKVB= ~åÇ= ïÜÉ~í= VKPB= ïÜáäÉ=ëçóÄÉ~åë= ~Åíì~ääó= Ö~áåÉÇ=NKQB= ÇÉëéáíÉ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ëÉÅíçê=ëÉåíáãÉåíK===`çêå ==

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tÜÉ~í= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= ¿SOSJTPSLÄì= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= VKPB= äçïÉê= ~í=¿SRMLÄìK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= íÜÉ= `cq`= ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=éçëáíáçåë=ÑÉää=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~åÇ=Ü~îÉ=êÉíìêåÉÇ=íç=åçêã~ä= äÉîÉäë= çå= ~å= ÜáëíçêáÅ~äJêÉä~íáîÉ= Ä~ëáëK=_~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜÉ= t^pabI= ÖäçÄ~ä= OMNMLNN= ïÜÉ~í=éêçÇìÅíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë= ïÉêÉ= êÉîáëÉÇ= NKQR= ãí=ÜáÖÜÉê= íç= SQOKUV= ãíK= eçïÉîÉêI= óÉ~ê= ÉåÇ=áåîÉåíçêó= Éëíáã~íÉë= ÑÉää= Ä~Åâ=OKNR= ãí=íç= NTOKRN=ãí= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜÉê= Åçåëìãéíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë= ~åÇ=äçïÉê= Å~êêóJçîÉê= Ñêçã= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK= qÜÉ= ïÜÉ~í=ã~êâÉí=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=åçêã~äáòÉ=åÉñí=óÉ~ê=~ë=Éñéçêí= Ä~åë=~åÇ=èìçí~ë=~êÉ=äáÑíÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=åÉñí=åçêíÜÉêå=ÜÉãáëéÜÉêÉ= Åêçé= Çê~ïë= ÅäçëÉêK= få= íÜÉ= ëÜçêíÉê=íÉêã= ëìééçêí= ÅçãÉë= Ñêçã= Çêó= rp= Åêçé=ÅçåÇáíáçåëI= äçïÉêáåÖ= óáÉäÇ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëI= ~åÇ=Ñêçã= ÉñÅÉëëáîÉ= ê~áå= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ^ìëíê~äá~å=Ü~êîÉëíK= `çåëÉèìÉåíäóI= íÜÉ= ëìééäó= çÑ= ÜáÖÜ=èì~äáíó=ïÜÉ~í=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=íáÖÜíÉåK=få=oìëëá~I=ÜçïÉîÉêI= éä~åíáåÖ= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= Ü~îÉ= áãéêçîÉÇK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW=tÜÉ~í= áë= áå= ~=

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pçóÄÉ~åë= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= ¿NOMNJNPPMLÄì= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= NKQB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í=¿NOQPLÄìK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç= íÜÉ=`cq`I=ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=éçëáíáçåë=ÑÉää= Ä~Åâ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ä~ëí=ãçåíÜ= Äìí=êÉã~áå=ÜáÖÜ=çå=~å=ÜáëíçêáÅ~äJêÉä~íáîÉ=Ä~ëáëK=qÜÉ=rpa^= êÉîáëÉÇ= ÖäçÄ~ä= OMNMLNN= ëçóÄÉ~å=éêçÇìÅíáçå= OKNM= ãí= ÜáÖÜÉê= íç= ORTKPS= ãí= áå= áíë=kçîÉãÄÉê= t^pabK= vÉ~ê= ÉåÇ= áåîÉåíçêó=Éëíáã~íÉë= êÉã~áåÉÇ= ëí~ÄäÉ= ~í= SNKQN= ãí= ~ë=Åçåëìãéíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë=ïÉêÉ=ê~áëÉÇK= qÜÉ=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å= i~= ká¥~= êÉä~íÉÇ= ÇêçìÖÜí= ~åÇ= îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÇÉã~åÇ= ~êÉ= ÇêáîáåÖ= ëçóÄÉ~å=éêáÅÉë=ÜáÖÜÉê=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=Åçêå=~åÇ=ïÜÉ~íK=qÜÉ=ÇêçìÖÜí= ëáíì~íáçå= ÅçìäÇ= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉ= ÑìêíÜÉêK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW= ^= ëéáååáåÖ= íçé=Å~åÇäÉ= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ëìÖÖÉëíë= ~= é~ìëÉ= ã~ó= ÄÉ=åÉÅÉëë~êó= ÄÉÑçêÉ= ÅçåíáåìáåÖ= ÜáÖÜÉêK= _ìó= Ä~ÅâÇêçéë=~åÇ=ï~áí=íáää=éêáÅÉë=êÉJ~ééêç~ÅÜ=íÜÉ=OMMU=¿NSSPLÄì= éÉ~â=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMNNK=



NQ

=

CORN=

Corn price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Corn year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2

0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4

0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6

0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8

0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0

1 0 / 1 1

mt

daysof supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Wheat year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2

0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4

0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6

0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8

0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0

1 0 / 1 1

mt

daysof supply

=

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Soybean year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2

0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4

0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6

0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8

0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0

1 0 / 1 1

mt

daysof supply

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=



NR

=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing) =

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

=

Coffee price (Arabica) (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing) =

40

60

80

100

120

140

160180

200

220

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) =

470480490500510520530540550560570580590600610

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

s e p - 1 3

d e c - 1 3

m a r - 1 4

j u n - 1 4

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) =

640660680700720740760780800820840

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

==

Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) =

110011201140116011801200122012401260128013001320

j a n - 1 1

a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2

o k t - 1 2

j a n - 1 3

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

=

Sugar (CBOT, ¢/lb) =

16171819202122

2324252627282930

m a r - 1 1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1 2

j u n - 1 2

s e p - 1 2

d e c - 1 2

m a r - 1 3

j u n - 1 3

10-10-29

10-12-03

10-11-30

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=



NS

=COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

==

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date NextIndustrial production (%, YoY) 5,5 2010-09-30 8,4 2010-08-31 2010-12-14Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,7 2010-09-30 1,1 2010-08-31 2010-12-14Capacity utilization (%, sa) 77,6 2010-12-31 77,2 2010-09-30 N/A

Manufacturing PMI 55,3 2010-11-30 54,6 2010-10-31 2010-12-16Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-09-30 2,0 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,4 2010-09-30 1,0 2010-06-30 N/ACPI (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-10-31 1,8 2010-09-30 2010-12-16CPI (%, MoM) 0,4 2010-10-31 0,2 2010-09-30 2010-12-16Consumer confidence -9,4 2010-11-30 -10,9 2010-10-31 2010-12-20USAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 5,3 2010-10-31 5,6 2010-09-30 N/AIndustrial production (%, MoM) 0,0 2010-10-31 -0,2 2010-09-30 2010-12-15Capacity utilization (%) 74,8 2010-10-31 74,8 2010-09-30 2010-12-15Manufacturing PMI 56,6 2010-11-30 56,9 2010-10-31 2011-01-03Real GDP (%, YoY) 3,2 2010-09-30 3,0 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,5 2010-09-30 1,7 2010-06-30 2010-12-22CPI (%, MoM) 1,2 2010-10-31 1,1 2010-09-30 2010-12-15CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,2 2010-10-31 0,1 2010-09-30 2010-12-15OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,4 2010-09-30 102,3 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence (Michigan) 71,6 2010-11-30 67,7 2010-10-31 2010-12-10Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 39 2010-11-30 172 2010-10-31 2011-01-07JAPANIndustrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,5 2010-10-31 11,5 2010-09-30 2010-12-14Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -1,8 2010-10-31 -1,6 2010-09-30 2010-12-14Capacity utilization (%, sa) 87,3 2010-09-30 88,3 2010-08-31 N/AManufacturing PMI 47,3 2010-11-30 47,2 2010-10-31 2010-12-30Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 4,4 2010-09-30 2,7 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2010-09-30 0,4 2010-06-30 2010-12-09CPI (%, YoY) 0,2 2010-11-30 0,3 2010-10-31 2010-12-28CPI (%, MoM) 0,4 2010-10-31 0,3 2010-09-30 N/AOECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,2 2010-09-30 103,0 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence 41,1 2010-10-31 41,4 2010-09-30 2010-12-10

CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,1 2010-10-31 13,3 2010-09-30 2010-12-13Manufacturing PMI 55,2 2010-11-30 54,7 2010-10-31 N/AReal GDP (%, YoY) 9,6 2010-09-30 10,3 2010-06-30 2011-01-21CPI (%, YoY) 4,4 2010-10-31 3,6 2010-09-30 2010-12-13OECD Composite Leading Indicator 99,3 2010-09-30 100,0 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence 103,8 2010-10-31 104,1 2010-09-30 N/ABank lending (%, YoY) 19,3 2010-10-31 18,5 2010-09-30 N/AFixed asset investment (%, YoY) 24,0 2010-09-30 25,0 2010-06-30 N/AOTHEROECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-09-30 102,8 2010-08-31 N/AGlobal manufacturing PMI 53,9 2010-11-30 53,7 2010-10-31 N/A

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research =



NT

=PERFORMANCE==

Closing YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1233,11 4,8 -0,6 12,2 9,3 50,8UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1160,64 4,7 -0,6 12,2 9,2 34,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1467,06 8,3 -0,5 13,2 13,6 79,9UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1331,08 -1,9 2,4 9,9 2,8 22,5UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1153,21 3,1 -1,8 9,4 13,1 75,5UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2088,11 27,9 3,7 14,8 21,2 183,6UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1729,92 18,3 -4,4 20,5 21,5 127,4Baltic Dry Index 2099,00 -33,2 -21,6 -22,6 -46,0 -24,2

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 84,11 3,2 3,3 16,9 8,8 46,7Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 85,92 7,2 3,3 15,1 9,5 56,1Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2275,00 0,4 -2,9 10,5 10,5 6,4Copper (LME, $/t) 8360,00 11,5 2,0 12,4 20,6 96,9Nickel (LME, $/t) 23050,00 21,3 0,3 11,4 40,5 80,1Zinc (LME, $/t) 2112,00 -17,9 -12,8 2,3 -9,0 23,1Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 520,00 22,5 3,9 3,8 28,4 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1385,00 23,8 2,0 10,9 17,3 180,0Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 530,00 26,6 -8,9 24,9 31,6 182,7

Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 650,25 16,6 -9,3 -0,3 14,6 113,9Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1243,00 18,4 1,4 23,3 17,2 122,8

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS

==

Date SourceDepartment of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.govAmerican Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.orgCFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.govUS Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.govInternational Energy Agency, Oil Market Report December 10, January 18 www.oilmarketreport.comOPEC, Oil Market Report December 10, N/A www.opec.orgDepartment of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook December 7, January 11 www.eia.doe.govUS Department of Agriculture, WASDE December 10, January 12 www.usda.govInternational Grains Council, Grain Market Report January 20 www.igc.org.ukOPEC extraordinary meeting, Quito, Ecuador December 11 www.opec.org

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=CONTACT LIST

==

COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone MobileTerje Anderson Global Head of

[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76

RESEARCHBjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10Katarina Johnsson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27INST. SALES Arne Boberg Head of inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64TRADINGMats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39

=

TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Müller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9



NU



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commodities monthly december 2010

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