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Climate Change
Hype or Reality?
http://www.dimplex-resource.co.uk/gifs/energy_the_issues/eti_climateChange.jpg
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Global System
Min MaxAtmosphere -50ºC 50ºC
No Atmosphere -230ºC 120ºC
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Conceptual Global Climate System
Atmosphere
Earth
Consider energy and mass transfers across system boundaries and processes or events that may alter their magnitude
Consider alterations of processes within the system
Space
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How do we know that climate is changing?
What is the best evidence??
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Individual Events CAN NOT be usedAs evidence of a trend!!!
www.kreybaby.com
http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/photos/hurricane-luis-dmsp.gif
www.nationwidepaging.co.uk/ boscastle_flooding.jpg
www.stormchasing.com
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www.gi.alaska.edu
web.utk.edu
www.accustudio.com
www.blogula-rasa.com
images.encarta.msn.com
Ice Core Fossils
Tree Rings VineyardsPaintings
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Mountain Treelines
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Athabasca Glacier: Canadian Rockies: www.sonic.net
Mer de Glace: French Alps
1826
2004
http://www.royalhigh.edin.sch.uk/
http://www.swisseduc.ch/glaciersPainting by Birman
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Famous Graph
Newer version in IPCC 2007 report Global records indicate 12 warmest years in the record have occurred since 1990 (record length 1881-2005)2005, 1998, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2001, 1999, 1995, 1990, 1997, 1991, 2000
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/temp/lugina/lugina.html
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IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Verdict “Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea-level”
IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers, p5. Notice past changes identified are gradual,
not catastrophic storms/hazards etc
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Past Temporal Fluctuations
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Temporal Fluctuations
Source: Moran & Morgan (1994). Meteorology. Macmillan College Publishing Co., New York, NY
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Temporal Fluctuations
Source: Moran & Morgan (1994). Meteorology. Macmillan College Publishing Co., New York, NY
Whether we consider ourselves to be in comparatively warm or cool period is dependent upon length of time scale under investigation. Last 10,000 years indicates current relative cooler phase, whereas last 1,000 years shows relative warmer phase. Climate System is always changing!
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The Enhanced “Greenhouse Effect”
Heat increased due to elimination of advection, i.e. no heat is transported away
from the surface
Heat increased by re-emission of energy by
radiatively active gases
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Historic Carbon Dioxide Levels
Accepted idea that CO2 levels trigger climate change, positive relationship with temperature
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c7/CO2-Mauna-Loa.png
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Carbon Dioxide Levels vs Temperature?
Majority View: Sponge Effect?
Wavelength selective absorption
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Many influences on climate but they work at different time scales
Source: Moran & Morgan (1994). Meteorology. Macmillan College Publishing Co., New York, NY
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EXTERNAL FACTORS
Natural external forcing agents Global solar energy
Sunspot cycles Intergalactic dust
Impacts on global solar distribution Milankovitch theory
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Solar Influence: SUNSPOTS A) Cycle (approximately
every 11 years) B) Longer term
fluctuation linked to European temperatures, e.g. Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age (1645-1715)
Length of cycle linked to temperature?
Minor influence
0
50
100
150
200
250
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year
Cou
nt
Source: http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/greenwch/spot_num.txt
http://www.astro.washington.edu/ivezic/Astr598/sunspot.gif
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Climatic Aspects and Sunspot Cycle
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Sunspot Cycle Length
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Long-time scale
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Milankovitch Hypothesis Obliquity of rotation to orbital plane
Currently 23.4º but varies between 22º and 24.5º over a 41,000 year cycle
Greater influence felt towards the poles Eccentricity of orbit around the sun
Varies from almost circular to more elliptical than present over two cycles, 96,000 and 413,000 years
Current annual variation of global solar energy approximately 5% but maximum variation of 30%
Precession of equinoxes Defines the season when closest to the sun over a
cycle of approximately 22,000 years
BUT TOTAL RADIATION REMAINS CONSTANT
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Milankovitch Cycles Corresponds well with cycles from proxy data Theory, in terms of variation of global radiation,
insufficient to account for changes in global temperatures
Feedback effects must also contribute to climate change
Source: http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/gccsg/2-5-2-4.html
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Milankovitch Cycles Combined effect is to redistribute energy input Total amount of radiation received by Earth in a
year stays the same: so global effect? Snow and ice amplify effects In hemisphere with lower summer solar input and
higher winter solar input – snow does not melt and ice sheets develop
– initiates an ICE AGE. Dominance of N. Hemisphere
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NATURAL INTERNAL FACTORS Natural Internal Forcing Agents
Solar Radiation forcing Volcanoes
Earth evolution Orogony (Mountain building) Continental Drift
Incr
easi
ng ti
me
scal
e
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VolcanicEruptions
http://cas.hamptonu.edu/centerinfo/photo-album/ScienceGraphics/images/volcano.jpg
Only lasts a couple of years
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Dust Veil Index (DVI)
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Orogony and Continental Drift Orogony
Mountain building due to tectonic forces
Increases upland area which may hold snow longer, thus increasing solar reflection - cooling
Continental Drift Dictates ratio of land surface
to ocean areas: supercontinents
Dictates where land and sea are located
Land and sea heat up differently and influence climate
PangaeaVERY LONG TIMESCALE
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Continental Drift
High Latitudes and Altitudes : Snow and Icemeans high albedo and cooling
Low Latitudes: Vegetation or Desert (depends on precipitation) – former means cooling through the CO2 effect, later means warming.
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HUMAN INTERNAL FACTORS
Anthropogenic Internal Forcing Agents Human-based activity and land-use change
such as urbanisation Growth in existing natural background levels
of greenhouse gases
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Humans: Land Use Change
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/images/santiago.jpg
BUT: is this just local?
Deforestation
Urbanisation
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Major Greenhouse Gases
Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar
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Major Greenhouse Gases
Classified by activity type
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Humans: Greenhouse Gases
Current CO2 concentration: 380 ppmv – Parts per million volume
Between 1970 and 2004, emissions have increased by 70%
77% of total emissions is CO2
But also note methane (CH4)and nitrous oxide (N2O)
Forecast concentration, by 2100:500 – 1000 ppmv (wide range indicates economic uncertainty
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GWP (Global Warming Potential)Time Horizon
20yrs 100yrs 500yrsCO2
MethaneNO2
CFC-11CFC-12HCFC-22
163
270450071004100
121
290350073001500
19
19015004500510
The warming effect of an emission of 1kg of each gas relative to that of CO2 = GWP (Global Warming Potential)
Note that methane is 63 times more powerful in the short term but has a relatively shorter atmospheric lifespan, hence only 9 times more powerful over 500 years
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Composite Model
Combination of known factors appear to explain major changes in global climate
Some doubt cast upon validity – see Idso, K.E. (2001) Predicting the past: Its not that difficult at http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n4edit.htm
Source: Gilliland, R.L. 1982. Solar, volcanic, and CO2 forcing of recent climate changes. Climatic Change 4: 111-131.
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The Future? Predictions based on modelling
Energy Balance Models Global Climate Models
Scenarios of CO2 consumption used: modelling of economics as well as atmosphere AIFI scenario leads to doubling of CO2 by 2050, and 1550
ppm by 2100. Alternative lesser increases used to indicate global action:
B1 (600 ppm by 2100), AIT, B2, AIB, A2
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Carbon Dioxide vs Temperature?NON-LINEAR
Fatalistic Viewpoint
Thresholds
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Global Carbon Cycle
www.globalchange.umich.edu
Problem:Figures don’t balance
BIG
SMALL
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Possible Feedback LoopsMore cloud
Less surface heating
Less convection
Less cloud?
-ve
Surface heating
Melting Less ice
Reduced albedo
+ve
Clouds
Ice/Snow
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UNKNOWNS
http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~jfogarty/GCM_essay.html
Permafrost: Methane Release
http://www.planetextinction.com/images/Permafrost.jpg
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Problems with GCM’s Clouds not incorporated well
Serious deficiencies in treatment Changes in snow/ice cover badly modelled
Albedo of snow highly significan Coupling of ocean and atmosphere
Thermal inertia of ocean systems Polewards transport of energy
More confidence with temperature predictions than rainfall predictions: smooth vs spotty distribution
Feedbacks can lead to instability in the model
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Future Predictions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)
Predictions updated 1990, 1996 and 2001, 2007 Global
Current rates of warming around 0.1-0.2 deg C/decade
Current mean estimate of 1.8ºC<>4.0ºC by 2100 (depends on scenario)
Constant 2000 concentrations: 0.6°C by 2100 (lag) Regional (see map)
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Two main climate model types One way to avoid economic uncertainty is to
predict for 2 *CO2, NOT a date
Transient (time series) – takes time to adjust
Equilibrium: 1 * C02 vs 2 * CO2 Model allowed to come into equilibrium Take the difference between the two
predictions, i.e. + 2 deg C
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Future Global change 2 times CO2
Most warming: Land, N hemisphere: Least certain: mid-latitudesGreen lines represent areas of uncertainty
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Regional Detail: Europe: Hadley Centre GCM
Note relativelypoor grid resolution
Summer Precip Winter Precip
Annual Precip
Annual Temp
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Most of the warming is focused in currently cold areas(snow and ice feedback) Logically this should reduce temporal and spatial variability of Earth’s climate at the surface
This may influence extreme events?
PREDICTING EFFECTS is not just temperature and precipitation?
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Extreme Events: StorminessThunder
Wind
Waves
Rain Ice and Snow
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Storm Tracks and GW
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270
290
310
330
350
370
390
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998year
num
ber
Frequency
Quinary mov.avg.
Timeseries of the number of storm events recorded at 24 hour intervals.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Year
Num
ber
Frequency
Quinary mov. avg.
Timeseries of the number of severe lows (max gradient greater than or equal to 45m/250km)
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998year
geop
oten
tial h
eigh
t gra
dien
t (m
/250
km)
meanQuinary mov. avg.
Timeseries of average intensity (mean pressure gradients)
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998year
inde
x va
lue
symmetry
Quinary mov. avg.
Timeseries of mean symmetry index
North Atlantic Cyclones: Western Europe
Source: Amanda Gibson (2006): Unpublished phD Thesis
F I
FSevere Sym
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Hurricanes: Uncertain
Increase over N AtlanticFrom 1995 to present, butThere were similar high frequencies in the 1950s.
Maybe a cycle: Maybe not?
Statistics are inconclusive
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Tornadoes:
Uncertain Data
Changes in reportingand better detectionmakes the data inhomogenous
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Mountains
Complicated landscape
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Glacial Change in East Africa
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Polar Regions
Sensitive to change, snow is a natural cooling system, protects the groundas an insulator, frozen lakes can be used for transport, hunting etc.
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Mediterranean: Desertification
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Portsmouth: coastal flooding: Old Portsmouth 1989, but also both more and less rainfall?
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So what can we do?
Figure 1. Global average temperature change projected from 16 different climate models for the 21st century if atmospheric CO2 levels are held constant at the year 2000 levels.
Figure 1. Global average temperature change projected from 16 different climate models for the 21st century if atmospheric CO2 levels are held constant at the year 2000 levels.
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/04/Sceptic website!
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Future scenarios
Source: IPCC 2007 Report: Mitigation of Climate Change
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Sunspot CyclesOrbital CyclesInterstellar Dust
Conceptual Global Climate System
Global Circulation Systems
Solar EnergyTerrestrial Energy
Solar Energy
Short-wave and long-wave energy balance
Volcanic Dust
Gas Emissions
Surface Conditions
Atmospheric Chemistry Radiative Forcing
Thermodynamic Forcing
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SUMMARY POINTS Climate change at many time scales: past changes have been
caused by many mechanisms superimposed upon one another
Changes in mean temperature and or precipitation may be seen in the past reconstructions and modelled in the GCMs, but this is not the whole description of climate
Extreme events are a real problem! to predict and understand! They are also not good to use as evidence of past or current climate change, and there is much uncertainty here.
Many unknowns concerning degree and extent of response – we are interfering with a complex system
Surely we should limit our interference as much as possible even though there are scientific and economic uncertainties?
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Internet Resources
http://www.climnet.org/ A useful site belonging to Climate Action Network Europe, great links
http://www.ipcc.ch/ The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Read the 2007 Scientific Basis report
http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html Met OfficeWeb site gives some model data and predictions for the future
http://www.realclimate.org/ Climate science from climate scientists
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/Index.jsp Alternative viewpoint
http://www.portsmouthcan.co.uk/ Local action network for climate change mitigation
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CHAOS
CHAOS
CHAOS
CHAOSCHAOS
CHAOS
CHAOS
CHAOSCHAOS