Claude VilleneuveProfesseur titulaire
Directeur de la Chaire en éco-conseilDépartement des sciences fondamentales
Université du Québec à ChicoutimiConférence au Congrès canadien d’investissement responsable
Montréal le 18 juin 2012
Responsible investment and climate changeWhat’s different?
Towards an uncertain future• In the last forty years, science made the general
deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence.
• It threatens mankind’s ability to keep developing on the same path– Biodiversity losses– Climate change– Ozone depletion– Ocean acidification– Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration
World environmental assessment
• Things are getting worse • 550 pages • 90 indicators only 4
has shown significant progress• Sustainability issues•Actual international
efforts are inefficient
Economic growth and energy
World primary energy sources
Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources
Keep growing!
Source http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
SellBuy
Sources of anthropogenic GHG(Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007)
Émissions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO2éq
Global mean temperature trends
Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (février 2010)
Outcomes?• Higher variability and weather extremes («wild
weather»)• Higher temperature means • Accelerated ice melting• Sea rise• Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought)• Change in seasonal behavior and migration of
animals and plants
Future climateTempérature moyenne, avec le modèle canadien [scénario IS92a (2xCO2 en 2065)] (Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada)
2010-2030 par rapport à 1975-19952040-2060 par rapport à 1975-1995
2020
2050
1,5xCO2 2xCO2
2080-2100 par rapport à 1975-1995
2090
Actuellement, c’est le scénario le plus plausible!3xCO2
Arctic sea ice
Upcoming global warming« We already have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. » . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250
« The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012
Energy transition?
Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources
Losses 40%
Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources
Losses 35%
What’s up, Doc?• Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes
will impact world’s economy in an impredictible way.– Agriculture – Forests– Transportation– Real estate– Tourism– Energy– Trade– Investment
Responsible investments?
• Widening investors responsibility to include stakeholders – Reducing climate risks– Addressing fundamentals of change– Catching climate opportunities– Helping capitalize on the multiple benefits of
sustainability
Risks
• Financial e.g. CDP and investors• Commercial e.g. Carbon footprint labels• Hazards e.g. sea level rise extreme events• Regulations e.g. carbon taxes• Procurement e.g. Energy prices
Opportunities
• Renewable energy• Low carbon production• Energy and material efficient technologies• Technological innovations
What does sustainability mean?
• Local vs global• Now vs tomorrow but what about
environmental «debt»?• Intergenerational equity• 7 +2 billions OCDE drafters?• How to invest in our common future?
Standing questions • Climate change is unavoidable. We must adapt
but how? At what pace?• How can investors take into account long tem
issues?• What is their power on multinational
corporations?• What can be your contribution to change?
How can it make a difference?