Applied Market Intelligence
China MCU Market Overview
Will Kong Analyst, iSuppli CorporationE il k @iS liEmail: [email protected]
China Semiconductor Consumption 2007-2013
$120,000 25%Semi Revenue Grow th Rate
$80 000
$100,000
rs 10%
15%
20%
An
$60,000
$80,000
ns o
f Dol
lar
0%
5%
10%
nnual Grow
$40,000Mill
ion
-10%
-5%
0%
wth R
ate
$0
$20,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20%
-15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2009 is the toughest year for all semi vendors. China semi consumption is around $72 billion in 2009, declined 4.7% over 2008.iSuppli forecast the semiconductor consumption will rebound from 2010 And the CAGR of China
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iSuppli forecast the semiconductor consumption will rebound from 2010. And the CAGR of China semiconductor consumption is 6.1% from 2008 t o 2013.
Global Semiconductor Consumption Growth 2000-2013
60%
70%Immune from
the .com bubble
40%
50%
60%
Globalization
20%
30%
0%
10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-20%
-10%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-30%
Global China AP Japan
Notes: The data is actual through 2008 and forecast from Q4 2009
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Notes: The data is actual through 2008 and forecast from Q4 2009
Worldwide MCU Consumption, 2007-2013
$18,000
20%
25%MCU Revenue Grow th Rate
$14,000
$16,000
rs
10%
15%
20%
A
$8 000
$10,000
$12,000
ns o
f Dol
lars
-5%
0%
5%
nnual Grow
$4 000
$6,000
$8,000
Mill
ion
-15%
-10%
5% wth R
ate
$0
$2,000
$4,000
-30%
-25%
-20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
.In 2009, MCU consumption revenue is $12 billion, with 25% decline comparing with 2008.We forecast in 2010 the market will rebound with 14% annual growth over 2009, and reached $13.6billion. The market will recover gradually.
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e a e eco e g adua y
China MCU Consumption 2007-2013
$3,500 25%MCU Revenue Grow th Rate
$2,500
$3,000
rs
15%
20%
A
$2,000
ns o
f Dol
lars
0%
5%
10%
nnual Grow
$1,000
$1,500
Mill
ion
-10%
-5%
0%
wth R
ate
$0
$500
-20%
-15%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
.In China, MCU market also experience a significant decline with -16.4% comparing with 2008.We forecast the annual growth rate will be above 10% in next several years. The situation is much better than other regions.
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e s ua o s uc be e a o e eg o s
MCU Consumption Growth Rate by Region 2007-2013
30%
10%
20%
0%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-10%
-30%
-20%
Global China AP Japan
Notes: the AP region excludes China (Mainland and Hong Kong)
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China MCU Market share by Product 2006-2013
100%
80%
100%
32 bit MCU
40%
60% 16 bit MCU
8 bit MCU
4 bit MCU
20%
40% 4 bit MCU
0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
32 bit MCU’s market share continue to increase in next few years; and 8 bit and 4 bit revenue will be declined.In Worldwide, the trend is more obvious than China.
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China MCU Market share by Application, 2006-2013
80%
100%
I d t i l
60%
Industrial
Automotive
Consumer
20%
40%Communications
Data Processing
0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In China, the largest market is consumer and Data processing. Automotive experience the highest growth in next five years, with a CAGR of 15.6% from 2008 to 2013.
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MCU Suppliers Ranking in China Market, 2008
2008 Ranking MCU Suppliers 2008 Revenue (M$)
1 Renesas Technology 180
2 Freescale Semiconductor 150
3 Microchip Technology 148
4 NEC Electronics 140
5 Infineon Technologies 103
6 Toshiba 68
7 Atmel 687 Atmel 68
8 Samsung 65
9 STMicroelectronics 58
10 NXP 52
Notes: The revenue is based on Bill-to China
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Market Developments in China, 8-bit MCUs
1,200
1,400
s Industrial Electronics
600
800
1,000
ons
of D
olla
rs Industrial Electronics
Automotive Electronics
Consumer Electronics
200
400
600
Mill
i
Communications
Data Processing
0
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
For 8 bit market, China market decline to $923 million in 2009, with 20% decline over 2008. For 8 bit products, Data processing is the largest market. Automotive has the highest growth rate in next five years, with a CAGR of 12.5%
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8-bit MCU Market Share in China
Consumption in China Local Design in China
Microchip19%
Microchip20%Others
26%
Freescale9%
Others37%
26%
9%
Atmel7%
Freescale11%
ST4%
Samsung4%
7%
NXP
NEC5%
S lST3%
Nuvoton3%
Renesas5%T hib
Atmel8%
NXP5% NEC
Sunplus4%
4%
RenesasToshiba NXP4%
Sunplus4%
3% 5%Toshiba4%
8%Renesas5%
Toshiba5%
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China's Top Application Markets for 8-bit MCUs, Consumption
25% Flat-Panel Monitors Security Systems Input Output Smart Cards
15%
20% Smart Cards Test and Measurement Home Audio System Components Infotainment Air Conditioner
10%
5%
AG
R
Safety and Control
5%08-1
3 C
A
0%-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
50
-5%
2009 Annual Growth Rate
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-10%
Market Developments in China, 16-bit MCUs
1,000
1,200
s Industrial Electronics
600
800
ons
of D
olla
rs Industrial Electronics
Automotive Electronics
Consumer Electronics
200
400Mill
i
Communications
Data Processing
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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China's Top Application Markets for 16-bit MCUs
40% Infotainment
Security Systems
I O
30%
Input Output
Power Train
Smart Cards
Consumer Appliance
Test and Measurement
20%
3 C
AG
R
Test and Measurement
Safety and Control
10%08-1
0%
25
-10%-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Annual Growth Rate
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Market Developments in China, 32-bit MCUs
1,000
1,200
s Industrial Electronics
600
800
ons
of D
olla
rs Industrial Electronics
Automotive Electronics
Consumer Electronics
200
400Mill
i
Communications
Data Processing
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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China's Top Application Markets for 32-bit MCUs
30% Security Systems Video Game Consoles
25%
Input Output Test and Measurement Power Train Medical Electronics Military & Civil Aerospace
20%
CAG
R
Military & Civil Aerospace Safety and Control
15%
08-1
3 C
10%
5%-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
50
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40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
2009 Annual Growth Rate
TAM of MCU in China Aircon Market,2007-2013
$80 25%
TAM for MCU Grow th Rate
$60
$70
s 10%
15%
20%
A
$40
$50
ons
of D
olla
rs
0%
5%
10% nnual Grow
t
$20
$30Mill
io
-10%
-5%
0% th Rate
$0
$10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20%
-15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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TAM of MCU in China E-Meter Market, 2007-2013
$50 25%TAM for MCU Grow th Rate
$40
rs
20%
A
$30
ns o
f Dol
lars
15%
nnual Grow
$10
$20
Mill
ion
5%
10%
wth R
ate
$0
$10
0%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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MCU product life cycle
Monopoly Competition
16-bitsale
s
Idea Promotion First Competition Mass ProductionDecline of
Production
4-bit8-bit32-bit
Idea Promotion First Competition Mass Production Production
Research and Development Growth Maturity Decline
Stage One Stage ThreeStage Two Stage Four
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MCU Distribute Business Model
Design House
MCU SuppliersPure Distributor
House
Customers
Value Added R llReseller
MCU market is fragment, so it obey the long tail theory,
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Long Tail Theory
2,500
Long Tail
1,500
2,000
Dolla
rs
Long Tail
1,000
Mill
ions
of
0
500
ds in s s e ol ent
cs on nts
es
es al e ce er ut ns ng rs s t V os n
g s o s s es er ter ge s s ks Cs m ns o V s ent s ure
ers
r s TH
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s s s ers
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Sm
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Car
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ower
Tr a
in M
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yste
ms
Milit
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& C
ivil A
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pace
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and
Con
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eas
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Conclusion
Price
ffDifferentiation
Service
BrandBrand
Distribute
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Applied Market Intelligence
China MCU Market Overview
Will Kong Analyst, iSuppli CorporationEmail: wkong@iSuppli comEmail: [email protected]