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Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY?
Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region
Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008
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UNICEF
Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children
• data from people – and children
• from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’
• focus on ‘performance gaps’
• being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support?
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UNICEF
For first time in more than a decade, resources are available
• A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years
• A 3rd wave of reforms is underway
• but there are risks– Spending will be on infrastructure – Policies remain sectoral – Political support for reform falters– External conditions change
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UNICEF
4 Parts to Presentation
• Some Building Blocks • Where are we now ?• Big Issues (added value of study?)• What is driving policy?
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UNICEF
Building Blocks 1
Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected
Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services
Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…)
Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood
Importance of children’s perspectives
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UNICEF
Building Blocks 2
Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children • Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to
current or emerging challenges – Certain groups of children always excluded– ‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor– Often unable to monitor effect of their policies
• Reform can produce exclusion – ‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state– models imported from outside, not fully contextualised – incomplete reform– old models restored
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UNICEF
4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response
‘the best interests of the child’
non-discrimination
participation
resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’
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UNICEF
A Story of Crisis and Economic Re-bound
0
50
100
150
GD
P p
er c
apita
ind
ex (1
989
=100
)
Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Romania
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths…
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UNICEF
Where are we now?
Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being
Material situation Housing Health Education Peer relationships Family forms and care Risk and Safety
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UNICEF
Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom (implementation)
• Vulnerability still High
• Rise in disparities
• Erosion of social services
• New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS
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UNICEF
Performance Gap 1Poverty is coming down….
18.4
102.061.2
40.0
46.0
160.7
153.3
108.8
395.6
215.1
264.2
329.2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Around1990
Around1998-99
Around2002-3
By 2007
Non-Poor: Above$ 4.30 a Day
Vulnerable: Above$ 2.15 and Below$ 4.30 a Day
Poor: Below $ 2.15a Day
Source : World Bank 2005
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UNICEF
But not all children are benefitting from economic growth
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
GD
P p
er c
apita
(in
cur
rent
PP
P
$)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
For
mal
car
e (r
ate
per
100,
000)
GDPFormal care
Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries.
GDP and public care of children:
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UNICEF
Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004)
Czech Republic
Hungary
PolandSlovakia
Slovenia
EstoniaLatvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
AlbaniaCroatia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
ArmeniaAzerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
6065
7075
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$
Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
Czech R.
HungaryPolandSlovakia
Slovenia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
MoldovaRussia
UkraineArmenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
510
1520
2530
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004
Fitted values
Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality
Source: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
New barriers for the poorInformal Payments During Most Recent Consultation
Source: Balabanova 2004
8
19
28
40
42
47
56
65
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Belarus
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Republic of Moldova
Armenia
Georgia
%
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UNICEF
Performance Gap 4 : Education Upper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%)
Czech Republic
HungaryPoland
Slovakia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
20
40
60
80
10
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 Source: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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UNICEF
Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004)
Czech RepublicHungary
Poland
SlovakiaSlovenia
Latvia
Lithuania
BulgariaRomania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
KyrgyzstanTajikistan
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
020
4060
80
%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP Source: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
Access to Pre-School - by Income
Quintile
Figure 3.11: Attendance rate, 3-4 year olds, by household consumption level, selected countries, 2005
0102030405060708090
100
%
Top quintile
Bottom quintile
Source: UNICEF 2007
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UNICEF
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Belar
us
Mon
tene
gro
Serbi
a
Bosni
a & H
.
Mol
dova
Mac
edon
ia
Geo
rgia
Armen
ia
Kazak
hsta
n
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Turkm
enist
an
Uzbek
istan
Azerb
aijan
Alban
ia
Tajikis
tan
Poorest w ealth index
Richest w ealth index
Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets
Source: MICS 2006
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UNICEF
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Belaru
s
Mon
tene
gro
Roman
ia
Bosnia
& H
.
Mold
ova
Mac
edon
ia
Georg
ia
Turk
ey
Armen
ia
Kazak
hsta
n
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Turk
men
istan
Uzbek
istan
Azerb
aijan
Albania
Tajik
istan
%
Low maternal education
High maternal education
Stunting by maternal education
Source: MICS 2006
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UNICEF
Czech RepublicHungary
PolandSlovakia
Slovenia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
AzerbaijanGeorgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
2040
6080
100
120
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP Per Capita $ PPP
Fitted values
Performance Gap 7 : Young PeopleMortality Rates 15-19yrs
Source: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
An epidemic with its roots in poverty
Incidence of HIV infections
Source: EuroHIV 2007
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UNICEF
Why did children lose out in the first
phase of transition?
• Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation • Fiscal squeeze• Lack of institutional structures that protected their
interests• Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful • Past practices …
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UNICEF
Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% G
DP
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Republic of Moldova
BelarusSource: WHO database 2008
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UNICEF
A more mixed picture on EducationGovernment Expenditures on Education/GDP (%)
2004
Czech Republic
HungaryPoland
Bulgaria
Albania
FYR Macedonia
BelarusMoldova Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
23
45
6
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, 2004
Fitted valuesSource: TRANSMONEE
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UNICEF
Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006
Health care Education Housing
Pensions Environment Public infrastructure
Other
HEALTH
EDUCATION
HOUSING
PENSIONS
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UNICEF
What are the big issues?
• Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ?
• What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies?
• A package of interventions & services all children have access to?
• Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads?
• Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? • How is Decentralization best approached?
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UNICEF
Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters!
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UNICEF
What does this mean for the study?
• That need for a clear hypothesis
• The link to policy - right from the start
• How can the analysis support (and inform)reform?
• Lead to a change in paradigm