children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in...
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Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY?
Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region
Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008
UNICEF
Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children
• data from people – and children
• from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’
• focus on ‘performance gaps’
• being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support?
UNICEF
For first time in more than a decade, resources are available
• A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years
• A 3rd wave of reforms is underway
• but there are risks– Spending will be on infrastructure – Policies remain sectoral – Political support for reform falters– External conditions change
UNICEF
4 Parts to Presentation
• Some Building Blocks • Where are we now ?• Big Issues (added value of study?)• What is driving policy?
UNICEF
Building Blocks 1
Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected
Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services
Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…)
Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood
Importance of children’s perspectives
UNICEF
Building Blocks 2
Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children • Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to
current or emerging challenges – Certain groups of children always excluded– ‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor– Often unable to monitor effect of their policies
• Reform can produce exclusion – ‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state– models imported from outside, not fully contextualised – incomplete reform– old models restored
UNICEF
4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response
‘the best interests of the child’
non-discrimination
participation
resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’
UNICEF
A Story of Crisis and Economic Re-bound
0
50
100
150
GD
P p
er c
apita
ind
ex (1
989
=100
)
Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Romania
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths…
UNICEF
Where are we now?
Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being
Material situation Housing Health Education Peer relationships Family forms and care Risk and Safety
UNICEF
Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom (implementation)
• Vulnerability still High
• Rise in disparities
• Erosion of social services
• New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS
UNICEF
Performance Gap 1Poverty is coming down….
18.4
102.061.2
40.0
46.0
160.7
153.3
108.8
395.6
215.1
264.2
329.2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Around1990
Around1998-99
Around2002-3
By 2007
Non-Poor: Above$ 4.30 a Day
Vulnerable: Above$ 2.15 and Below$ 4.30 a Day
Poor: Below $ 2.15a Day
Source : World Bank 2005
UNICEF
But not all children are benefitting from economic growth
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
GD
P p
er c
apita
(in
cur
rent
PP
P
$)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
For
mal
car
e (r
ate
per
100,
000)
GDPFormal care
Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries.
GDP and public care of children:
UNICEF
Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004)
Czech Republic
Hungary
PolandSlovakia
Slovenia
EstoniaLatvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
AlbaniaCroatia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
ArmeniaAzerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
6065
7075
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$
Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
Czech R.
HungaryPolandSlovakia
Slovenia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
MoldovaRussia
UkraineArmenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
510
1520
2530
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004
Fitted values
Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality
Source: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
New barriers for the poorInformal Payments During Most Recent Consultation
Source: Balabanova 2004
8
19
28
40
42
47
56
65
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Belarus
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Republic of Moldova
Armenia
Georgia
%
UNICEF
Performance Gap 4 : Education Upper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%)
Czech Republic
HungaryPoland
Slovakia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
20
40
60
80
10
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 Source: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
UNICEF
Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004)
Czech RepublicHungary
Poland
SlovakiaSlovenia
Latvia
Lithuania
BulgariaRomania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
KyrgyzstanTajikistan
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
020
4060
80
%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP Source: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
Access to Pre-School - by Income
Quintile
Figure 3.11: Attendance rate, 3-4 year olds, by household consumption level, selected countries, 2005
0102030405060708090
100
%
Top quintile
Bottom quintile
Source: UNICEF 2007
UNICEF
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Belar
us
Mon
tene
gro
Serbi
a
Bosni
a & H
.
Mol
dova
Mac
edon
ia
Geo
rgia
Armen
ia
Kazak
hsta
n
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Turkm
enist
an
Uzbek
istan
Azerb
aijan
Alban
ia
Tajikis
tan
Poorest w ealth index
Richest w ealth index
Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets
Source: MICS 2006
UNICEF
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Belaru
s
Mon
tene
gro
Roman
ia
Bosnia
& H
.
Mold
ova
Mac
edon
ia
Georg
ia
Turk
ey
Armen
ia
Kazak
hsta
n
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Turk
men
istan
Uzbek
istan
Azerb
aijan
Albania
Tajik
istan
%
Low maternal education
High maternal education
Stunting by maternal education
Source: MICS 2006
UNICEF
Czech RepublicHungary
PolandSlovakia
Slovenia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Romania
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Armenia
AzerbaijanGeorgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
2040
6080
100
120
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP Per Capita $ PPP
Fitted values
Performance Gap 7 : Young PeopleMortality Rates 15-19yrs
Source: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
An epidemic with its roots in poverty
Incidence of HIV infections
Source: EuroHIV 2007
UNICEF
Why did children lose out in the first
phase of transition?
• Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation • Fiscal squeeze• Lack of institutional structures that protected their
interests• Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful • Past practices …
UNICEF
Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% G
DP
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Republic of Moldova
BelarusSource: WHO database 2008
UNICEF
A more mixed picture on EducationGovernment Expenditures on Education/GDP (%)
2004
Czech Republic
HungaryPoland
Bulgaria
Albania
FYR Macedonia
BelarusMoldova Ukraine
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
23
45
6
0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP per capita PPP$, 2004
Fitted valuesSource: TRANSMONEE
UNICEF
Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006
Health care Education Housing
Pensions Environment Public infrastructure
Other
HEALTH
EDUCATION
HOUSING
PENSIONS
UNICEF
What are the big issues?
• Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ?
• What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies?
• A package of interventions & services all children have access to?
• Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads?
• Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? • How is Decentralization best approached?
UNICEF
Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters!
UNICEF
What does this mean for the study?
• That need for a clear hypothesis
• The link to policy - right from the start
• How can the analysis support (and inform)reform?
• Lead to a change in paradigm