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Brazilian Efforts toward
an Earth System Model
Paulo Nobre
National Institute for Space Research – INPE
Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies – CPTEC
Center for Earth System Science – CCST
Viçosa, 24 de fevereiro de 2010
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What’s Global Climate Change about…
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What can we contribute?
• Land surface
– Vegetation dynamics
• Forest fires, agriculture, reforestation…
– Continental hydrology
• Sediment, chemistry transport to oceans
• Atmosphere
– Rainfall
– Chemistry/Aerosol
• Ocean
– Biogeochemistry
• CO2 fluxes
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Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System
FAQ 1.2, Figure 1
Mid 2000s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Atmosphere
Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s
The Climate System
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Figure 1 - The Global Climate System. A modified "Bretherton Diagram"highlighting linkages between biogechemical and physical climate systems. (Guy P.Brasseur, NCAR)
CPTEC.2.0 mpi, T213L64
MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50
SSiB + NCAR’s IBIS
GFDL's FMS
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INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal
Data Assimilation
AGCM
OGCM
AtmosOBS
T-S
IC
Coupled Forecast
Atmos
FCSTdaily/hourly
SFC
fluxes
SST
OGCM
AGCM
6 hourly
Regional
Model
3 hourly
Hydrology
Model
Crop
Model
Health
Model
Wave
Model
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INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation
Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer
Update Ice Model up
Update Land Model
Flux down from Atmos
Update Atmos Model
Update Atmos Model up
Flux up to Atmos
Update Ice Model
Atmos Loop
Atmos Loop End
Avg psurf
Atmos-2-Ice
SST-2-Atmos
Update Land Model
Flux Ice to Ocean
Update Ice Model down
Flux Land to Ice
Ocean Loop
Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model
Coupled Loop
Coupled Loop
Coupler End
Coupler Init
Slo
w L
oo
p
Fa
st
Fast
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INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation
Flux Ocean to Ice
Update Ice Model up
Update Atmos ModelAtmos Loop
Atmos Loop End
Flux Ice to Ocean
Update Ice Model down
Ocean Loop
Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model
Coupled Loop
Coupled Loop
Coupler End
Coupler Init
Slo
w L
oo
p
Fa
st
Fast
Land Loop
Land Loop EndUpdate Land Model
Fast
Flux Ice to Land
Update Ice Model down
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Component models…
• Atmos GCM: – CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, – Semi-Lagrangian, – Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64
• Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution
– RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection • Improved stratus parameterization scheme
– atmospheric chemistry & aerosols
• Land Surface Model: IBIS/INLAND – Dynamic vegetation
– Carbon Cycle
– Fire Model
– Improved hires land surface hidrology
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Component models…
• OGCM: – MOM4, – Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, – L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, – Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing– free surface, – fresh water flux, – river inflow;
– Dynamical ice model (SIS)
– Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling)
• GFDLs FSM coupler– Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos radiation)
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INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling
Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the RAMS
CATT
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aero-dynamics
energybalance
waterbalance
ATMOSPHERE(prescribed atmospheric datasets)
nitrogen cycling
growth of leaves,stems & roots
allocationand turnover
mortality &disturbance
VEGETATION DYNAMICS MODULE
VEGETATION PHENOLOGY MODULE
canopy physics
LA N D S U R F A C E
M O D U L E
gross photosynthesis,
foliage respiration, &
optimal C:N ratios for
each plant functional type
daily LAI
vegetation structure
and biomass
temperature,
photosynthesis
soil physics
canopy nitrogenallocation
t ~ minutes to hours t ~ days to weeks t ~ years
senescencebudburst dormancy
decomposition of litter& soil organic matter
soilrespiration
carbon cycling
BELOWGROUND CARBON & NITROGEN
CYCLING MODULE
litter
fallnitrogen supply
IBIS Structure
nitrogenmineralization nitrification denitrification
energybalance
waterbalance
photosynthesis
& leaf respirationstomatal
conductance
plant physiology
gross primaryproduction
totalrespiration
net primaryproduction
INPE developments on the surface modelingINLAND
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River flow and flooded areas
• Aplications over:
– Amazônia
– Pantanal
– Araguaia
• Implications:– Flux exchanges
between sfc and atmos– Hydrology– Carbon cycle
Costa et al., in press
HAND
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Processes Resolved:River inflow effects on salinity
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Ocean biogeochemistry MOM4p1: OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) + 3
functional groups prognostic
Challenges:
Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré & al. 2005): 10 functiona groups
Emergent Biogeography (Follows & al. 2007): emerging functional groups
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Ice Cover SimulationINPE COUPLED O-A GCM
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OGCM Grid
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling
30 days avrg spinup SST
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling
30 days avrg spinup Precip
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Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004
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72 hours CATARINA FCSTCGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLP
ci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004
Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)
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Amazon Deforestation Experiment: Increased El Niño Conditions
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
Nobre et al. (2009) J. Climate
Statistically significant departures are shaded
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In danger lies opportunity
Thank You.