Brazilian Efforts toward

an Earth System Model

Paulo Nobre

National Institute for Space Research – INPE

Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies – CPTEC

Center for Earth System Science – CCST

Viçosa, 24 de fevereiro de 2010

What’s Global Climate Change about…

What can we contribute?

• Land surface

– Vegetation dynamics

• Forest fires, agriculture, reforestation…

– Continental hydrology

• Sediment, chemistry transport to oceans

• Atmosphere

– Rainfall

– Chemistry/Aerosol

• Ocean

– Biogeochemistry

• CO2 fluxes

Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System

FAQ 1.2, Figure 1

Mid 2000s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Non-sulphate

Dynamic

Vegetation

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Aerosol

Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Non-sulphate

Aerosol

Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Atmosphere

Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s

The Climate System

Figure 1 - The Global Climate System. A modified "Bretherton Diagram"highlighting linkages between biogechemical and physical climate systems. (Guy P.Brasseur, NCAR)

CPTEC.2.0 mpi, T213L64

MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50

SSiB + NCAR’s IBIS

GFDL's FMS

INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal

Data Assimilation

AGCM

OGCM

AtmosOBS

T-S

IC

Coupled Forecast

Atmos

FCSTdaily/hourly

SFC

fluxes

SST

OGCM

AGCM

6 hourly

Regional

Model

3 hourly

Hydrology

Model

Crop

Model

Health

Model

Wave

Model

INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation

Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer

Update Ice Model up

Update Land Model

Flux down from Atmos

Update Atmos Model

Update Atmos Model up

Flux up to Atmos

Update Ice Model

Atmos Loop

Atmos Loop End

Avg psurf

Atmos-2-Ice

SST-2-Atmos

Update Land Model

Flux Ice to Ocean

Update Ice Model down

Flux Land to Ice

Ocean Loop

Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model

Coupled Loop

Coupled Loop

Coupler End

Coupler Init

Slo

w L

oo

p

Fa

st

Fast

INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation

Flux Ocean to Ice

Update Ice Model up

Update Atmos ModelAtmos Loop

Atmos Loop End

Flux Ice to Ocean

Update Ice Model down

Ocean Loop

Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model

Coupled Loop

Coupled Loop

Coupler End

Coupler Init

Slo

w L

oo

p

Fa

st

Fast

Land Loop

Land Loop EndUpdate Land Model

Fast

Flux Ice to Land

Update Ice Model down

Component models…

• Atmos GCM: – CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, – Semi-Lagrangian, – Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64

• Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution

– RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection • Improved stratus parameterization scheme

– atmospheric chemistry & aerosols

• Land Surface Model: IBIS/INLAND – Dynamic vegetation

– Carbon Cycle

– Fire Model

– Improved hires land surface hidrology

Component models…

• OGCM: – MOM4, – Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, – L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, – Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing– free surface, – fresh water flux, – river inflow;

– Dynamical ice model (SIS)

– Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling)

• GFDLs FSM coupler– Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos radiation)

INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling

Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the RAMS

CATT

aero-dynamics

energybalance

waterbalance

ATMOSPHERE(prescribed atmospheric datasets)

nitrogen cycling

growth of leaves,stems & roots

allocationand turnover

mortality &disturbance

VEGETATION DYNAMICS MODULE

VEGETATION PHENOLOGY MODULE

canopy physics

LA N D S U R F A C E

M O D U L E

gross photosynthesis,

foliage respiration, &

optimal C:N ratios for

each plant functional type

daily LAI

vegetation structure

and biomass

temperature,

photosynthesis

soil physics

canopy nitrogenallocation

t ~ minutes to hours t ~ days to weeks t ~ years

senescencebudburst dormancy

decomposition of litter& soil organic matter

soilrespiration

carbon cycling

BELOWGROUND CARBON & NITROGEN

CYCLING MODULE

litter

fallnitrogen supply

IBIS Structure

nitrogenmineralization nitrification denitrification

energybalance

waterbalance

photosynthesis

& leaf respirationstomatal

conductance

plant physiology

gross primaryproduction

totalrespiration

net primaryproduction

INPE developments on the surface modelingINLAND

River flow and flooded areas

• Aplications over:

– Amazônia

– Pantanal

– Araguaia

• Implications:– Flux exchanges

between sfc and atmos– Hydrology– Carbon cycle

Costa et al., in press

HAND

HAND

Processes Resolved:River inflow effects on salinity

Ocean biogeochemistry MOM4p1: OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) + 3

functional groups prognostic

Challenges:

Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré & al. 2005): 10 functiona groups

Emergent Biogeography (Follows & al. 2007): emerging functional groups

Ice Cover SimulationINPE COUPLED O-A GCM

OGCM Grid

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup SST

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup Precip

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

72 hours CATARINA FCSTCGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLP

ci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004

Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)

Amazon Deforestation Experiment: Increased El Niño Conditions

PRECIPITATION

TEMPERATURE

Nobre et al. (2009) J. Climate

Statistically significant departures are shaded

In danger lies opportunity

Thank You.