© OECD/IEA 2017© OECD/IEA 2016
Bioenergy A Global Perspective
Adam Brown, IEA Paris
Tallinn, Estonia,
13 April 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
Topics
Current importance of bioenergy
Future role in a low carbon economy
The IEA Roadmap update
© OECD/IEA 2017
Current global bioenergy situation
Total FEC – 48 EJ
Total primary supply – 63 EJ
89% for heat applications• 65% “traditional use”
• 24 % of modern heat
65%6%
18%
6%
4% 1%
Bioenergy in FEC 2014
Traditional Biomass Modern Biomass Heating
Industry Transport
Electricity Other
© OECD/IEA 2017
Bioenergy generation by region (2006-20)
As growth slows in some major OECD bioenergy markets, higher levels of generation are anticipated in certain non-OECD countries with abundant
resources and policy drivers.
Medium-term market overview for bioenergy electricity by region
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TW
h
OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe
Africa Asia China
© OECD/IEA 2017
Modern RE Heat
Consumption of modern renewable energy for heat 2008-20
Challenges persist to increasing the contribution of renewables and decarbonising the heat sector, however established renewable heat policies have proved successful.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EJ
Geothermal Solar thermal Modern bioenergy
© OECD/IEA 2017
Stabilisation of global biofuels productionWorld biofuels production by volume 2008-20
Global conventional biofuels production forecast to stabalise over the medium-term, policy stability is required to provide a platform for investments in new production capacity.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
mb
/d
Bill
ion litre
s
United States biofuels Brazil biofuels
OECD Europe biofuels Rest of the world biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2017
Role of Bioenergy in IEA ETP 2DS Scenario
Bioenergy is largest primary energy carrier in 2 DS in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2017
World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold
Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2017
Bioenergy – an important source of heat
Bioenergy use in non-OECD buildings sector declines traditional biomass replaced by more efficient technologies; improved energy
efficiency
Biomass is a key low-carbon fuel alternative for high temperature heat, at relatively competitive costs
Buildings Industry
Bioenergy share on total demand: 30% in 2009 18% in 2050
Bioenergy share on total demand: 8% in 2009 15% in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2017
Biofuels Roadmap Vision
Biofuels could provide up to 27% of world transport fueldemand in 2050 in the 2DS Scenario
Biofuels are the only low-carbon fuel alternative for long-haultransport
Commercial deployment of advanced biofuels will be key toreach the required volumes in a sustainable, cost- and resource-efficient way
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
billion litresmb/d
Ethanol - conventional Ethanol - cane Ethanol - advanced
Biodiesel - conventional Biodiesel - advanced BiojetNote: Figure does not include biomethane.
© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA Bioenergy Roadmaps
2011
2012
What’s Changed?
Increasing competition from both fossil fuels (at
current low prices)
Strong deployment and cost reductions for other
sources of renewable electricity (wind and solar
PV) and good progress in some complementary
technologies (e.g. electric vehicles)
Slow increase in deployment of bioenergy
Increased attention to the overall carbon
savings and sustainability issues relating to
bioenergy, including ILUC and food competition
leading to policy uncertainty (especially in EU)
Bioenergy in context of bioeconomy
Significant technology progress but deployment
slower than anticipated
© OECD/IEA 2017
Bioenergy and roadmap update
Strong collaboration with Bioenergy TCP
One document covering biofuels and bioenergy.
Key dates• 13 April 2017 - Workshop in Tallinn, Estonia
• 25 April 2017 – IEA Workshop on Bioenergy Sustainability Governance, Paris
• 12 June 2017 – European Bioenergy Conference Key Roadmap findings
• September 2017 Roadmap publication
© OECD/IEA 2017
Supplementary slides
© OECD/IEA 2017
Increased competition from other renewables
High levels of incentives are no longer necessary for solar PV and onshore wind in many markets
Support for bio-electricity focussing on the most promising applications.
Historical and forecast global weighted average generation costs for
new onshore wind and PV plants vs. selected reference bioenergy
LCOEs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
201
0
201
5
202
0
201
0
201
5
202
0
Dedic
ate
d b
iom
ass
Co-f
irin
g(w
oo
dch
ips &
pelle
ts)
Wa
ste
s &
re
sid
ue
s
Em
erg
ing
Te
chn
olig
ies e
.g.
gasific
ation
Aen
ero
bic
Dig
estion
US
D 2
01
4/M
Wh
© OECD/IEA 2017
Does bio-electricity have other benefits?
Waste disposal or environmental benefits
Economic benefits (rural development)
Efficient use with chp
Flexibility to support wind and solar
Regional complementarity with solar/wind?
To make the case for bioenergy these have to be monetised!
© OECD/IEA 2017
Role of renewable heat is increasing, but policy support still limited
Only around 50 countries worldwide have support measures for renewable heat in place compared to more than 110 for renewable electricity
Broader adoption of support policies for renewable heat critical to reduce fossil fuel consumption and enhance energy security
Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Early commercialisation in the advanced biofuels sector
Commissioned commercial scale advanced biofuel plants
Advanced biofuels – needed for long-term decarbonisation of the transport sector – are starting to scale up.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Key Questions
Can we expand biofuels production and still have enough to eat?
Does bioenergy really save carbon emissions?
• Carbon balance
• Direct and indirect land use change
• Timing of savings from forest biomass
Does producing biomass use too much water?