© OECD/IEA 2017© OECD/IEA 2016

Bioenergy A Global Perspective

Adam Brown, IEA Paris

Tallinn, Estonia,

13 April 2017

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Topics

Current importance of bioenergy

Future role in a low carbon economy

The IEA Roadmap update

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Current global bioenergy situation

Total FEC – 48 EJ

Total primary supply – 63 EJ

89% for heat applications• 65% “traditional use”

• 24 % of modern heat

65%6%

18%

6%

4% 1%

Bioenergy in FEC 2014

Traditional Biomass Modern Biomass Heating

Industry Transport

Electricity Other

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Bioenergy generation by region (2006-20)

As growth slows in some major OECD bioenergy markets, higher levels of generation are anticipated in certain non-OECD countries with abundant

resources and policy drivers.

Medium-term market overview for bioenergy electricity by region

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Modern RE Heat

Consumption of modern renewable energy for heat 2008-20

Challenges persist to increasing the contribution of renewables and decarbonising the heat sector, however established renewable heat policies have proved successful.

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Stabilisation of global biofuels productionWorld biofuels production by volume 2008-20

Global conventional biofuels production forecast to stabalise over the medium-term, policy stability is required to provide a platform for investments in new production capacity.

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Role of Bioenergy in IEA ETP 2DS Scenario

Bioenergy is largest primary energy carrier in 2 DS in 2050

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World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold

Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050

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Bioenergy – an important source of heat

Bioenergy use in non-OECD buildings sector declines traditional biomass replaced by more efficient technologies; improved energy

efficiency

Biomass is a key low-carbon fuel alternative for high temperature heat, at relatively competitive costs

Buildings Industry

Bioenergy share on total demand: 30% in 2009 18% in 2050

Bioenergy share on total demand: 8% in 2009 15% in 2050

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Biofuels Roadmap Vision

Biofuels could provide up to 27% of world transport fueldemand in 2050 in the 2DS Scenario

Biofuels are the only low-carbon fuel alternative for long-haultransport

Commercial deployment of advanced biofuels will be key toreach the required volumes in a sustainable, cost- and resource-efficient way

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Ethanol - conventional Ethanol - cane Ethanol - advanced

Biodiesel - conventional Biodiesel - advanced BiojetNote: Figure does not include biomethane.

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IEA Bioenergy Roadmaps

2011

2012

What’s Changed?

Increasing competition from both fossil fuels (at

current low prices)

Strong deployment and cost reductions for other

sources of renewable electricity (wind and solar

PV) and good progress in some complementary

technologies (e.g. electric vehicles)

Slow increase in deployment of bioenergy

Increased attention to the overall carbon

savings and sustainability issues relating to

bioenergy, including ILUC and food competition

leading to policy uncertainty (especially in EU)

Bioenergy in context of bioeconomy

Significant technology progress but deployment

slower than anticipated

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Bioenergy and roadmap update

Strong collaboration with Bioenergy TCP

One document covering biofuels and bioenergy.

Key dates• 13 April 2017 - Workshop in Tallinn, Estonia

• 25 April 2017 – IEA Workshop on Bioenergy Sustainability Governance, Paris

• 12 June 2017 – European Bioenergy Conference Key Roadmap findings

• September 2017 Roadmap publication

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Supplementary slides

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Increased competition from other renewables

High levels of incentives are no longer necessary for solar PV and onshore wind in many markets

Support for bio-electricity focussing on the most promising applications.

Historical and forecast global weighted average generation costs for

new onshore wind and PV plants vs. selected reference bioenergy

LCOEs

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Does bio-electricity have other benefits?

Waste disposal or environmental benefits

Economic benefits (rural development)

Efficient use with chp

Flexibility to support wind and solar

Regional complementarity with solar/wind?

To make the case for bioenergy these have to be monetised!

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Role of renewable heat is increasing, but policy support still limited

Only around 50 countries worldwide have support measures for renewable heat in place compared to more than 110 for renewable electricity

Broader adoption of support policies for renewable heat critical to reduce fossil fuel consumption and enhance energy security

Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

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Early commercialisation in the advanced biofuels sector

Commissioned commercial scale advanced biofuel plants

Advanced biofuels – needed for long-term decarbonisation of the transport sector – are starting to scale up.

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Key Questions

Can we expand biofuels production and still have enough to eat?

Does bioenergy really save carbon emissions?

• Carbon balance

• Direct and indirect land use change

• Timing of savings from forest biomass

Does producing biomass use too much water?