Background to Climate Change Discussion:
Sustainabilityand
Sustainable Development
Why should we worry about sustainability of development? Because, whether we like it or not,
CHANGE IS COMING!
At least three pressures: Over Exploitation of Planet’s Biological Resources
Rising World Population / Rising Resource Intensity of Production & Consumption
Potential for Near-term Climate Change
What consititues a sustainability concern? Those problems which if left unresolved would appear to
threaten either:– the very foundations of society
or
– the quality of life of its members
Not every problem is a sustainability concern True sustainability issues (with important exceptions) tend to be
– chronic and widespreadrather than
– short term and acute
Just Surviving vs. Surviving Well FUNCTIONAL Sustainability
Meeting basic material needs
QUALITATIVE Sustainability Looking out for Quality of life as well as survival itself
– i.e., don’t too readily give up quality for quantity
Sustainability vs. Sustainable Development Sustainability:
Reminds us of need to take long term view of our ability to keep going more or less as we are
About being able to keep doing what we are doing
Could be a Steady State
Sustainable Development: About our ability to meet our needs as we change and grow
Attaining a Dynamic Equilibrium– For this substitutions are key
PRESSURE 1: Worldwide Biological Resource Stress (UNEP GEO-4) “We are living FAR beyond our means”
Human footprint ~ 22 ha/person but planet only has about 16 ha/person for current population– Food– Fish– Fresh water– Ecosystem Stress / Biodiversity– Pollution
These problems are severe enough to put “humanity at risk”
PRESSURE 1 con't : FOOD Food: intensity of food production has increased
dramatically in past 20 years Food security for 2/3 of world population depends on fertilizers,
esp. nitrogen
Water availability a concern
Loss of genetic diversity a risk– 1 animal species provides 90% of all livestock;
– 30 crops providing 90% of world’s calories
Land degradation affects 1/3 of world population Thru pollution, soil erosion, nutrient depletion, water scarcity,
salinity,disruption to biological cycles
PRESSURE 1 con't : FISH Consumption of fish tripled from 1961 & 2001 But catches have declined since 1980s
PRESSURE 1 con't : FISH Consumption of fish tripled from 1961 & 2001 But catches have declined since 1980s Almost 1/3 of stocks have ‘crashed’ so far
And no large undeveloped or substantially underdeveloped stocks remain anywhere
Almost 40% of remaining stocks are overexploited (that is are on their way to crashing)
Scale of fish removal will lead to new predator/prey relationships and new ecological balances
Rise in oxygen dead zones in the ocean Increasing acidification of the oceans
PRESSURE 1 con't : FRESH WATER 10% of world’s rivers fail to reach the sea because
of irrigation withdrawals. Decreasing Fresh water for people and other users
Yet water use predicted to increase by 50% in developing and 18% in developed countries by 2025– Climate change could have adverse impacts on seasonal
water supply (e.g., less snowpack, glacial ice for spring melt; more intense rains with higher runoff)
Widespread contamination of aquatic systems from personal care products & pharmaceuticals (e.g. antibiotics, painkillers)
PRESSURE 1 con't : Ecosystem Stress / Biodiversity World’s Sixth Great Species Extinction now
underway Loss far greater for freshwater vertebrates than land or
marine ones Invasion of alien species Estimated 60% of world’s ecosystem services are
degraded or being used unsustainably
PRESSURE 1 con't : Pollution More than 50,000 man-made compounds are used
commercially Residuals have often unknown eco/health impacts
Some of the progress in decreasing pollution exposure in higher income economies has come via exporting pollution to the developing world
More than 2 million die prematurely each year due to pollution
PRESSURE 2: World Population Growth
Country Millions with
income > $US 10k yr. 1990
Millions with
income > $US 10k yr. 2000
China < 5 ~ 200
India < 5 ~ 15
Approx. levels in N. Amer. + W.
Europe + Japan/Korea +
rest of world (excl. China/India) 2000
~ 1,000 to 1,300
Poverty Rate Worldwide(< $US 1,100 US /person/yr)
1990 ~ 33% x pop 5.3 b = 1.8b 2000 ~ 21% x 6.1 b = 1.3b
Alternatively:
1990 ~ 3.6 billion not in extreme poverty (i.e., with at least some discretionary income)
2000 ~ 4.8 ( ~22% increase in absolute terms in a decade)
PRESSURE 2 con’t: Rapid Expansion in Number of Energy and other resource-intensive consumers
More Equitable but …also increase total resource consumption
Consumption threadmill !!storyofstff.com
PRESSURE 3:Climate change
Major unknowns Time lags
How far we push the system
Over-exploitation of
BioogicalResources
Rising population&
Resource intensity Of prod./Consump.
PotentialFor
Near termClimate change
Fundamental CHALLENGES To Sustainability
Pressures On Production / Consumption Systems
Prospects For Reduced Supply
Constrained Potential to meet Higher Demands
PANDEMIC(e.g., bird flu)
Wild Card
(Sudden, highly disruptive forMonths/years)
Looming on horizon; impacts for decades or permanent
Vulnerabilities heightened by Interconnectedness of Global Economy
Ways We Might Respond Technology & Price Adjustments Modify Structure of Production
Limits on generating external costs Revise way Present Value calculated for future benefits
/ costs (carbon tax??) Ban China Price strategy
Change in Values Individual & collective
– Incl. composition of consumption
NEW TECHNOLOGY &
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
RESPONSES
Evolution of VALUES / GOALS(individual / collective)
esp. composition of consumption
Promote EFFICIENCY
/ FLEXIBLITY
Focus on QUALITY
Invest for INSURANCE
(Mostly TOP DOWN)
(Mostly BOTTOM UP)
(Mostly TOP DOWN)
CHALLENGES
RESPONSES (i): Technology & Price US Academy of Engineering notes among its 14 grand
challenges for the 21st century Making solar energy more affordable
– energy storage from intermittent renewable resources Nuclear fusion Increasing access to clean water Carbon sequestration
RESPONSES (i): Technology & Price US Academy of Engineering notes among its 14 grand
challenges for the 21st century Making solar energy more affordable (1)
– energy storage from intermittent renewable resources Nuclear fusion (2) Increasing access to clean water (3) Carbon sequestration (7)
Other Likely substitutions: Extensive mining of waste streams for metals More re-use of raw materials generally Return to practice of replacing parts, not entire units Emphasis on sustainable harvesting of biological resources Greater energy efficiency in buildings, transport, appliances
PRICE SIGNALS: rationing, shifts in investment Equity Issues, national stability ??
RESPONSES (ii) Structure of Production Systems Constraining ability to externalize costs
Esp. undermining of capacity for renewability (and perhaps even re-usability and long useable life)
Market and non-driven focus on insurance for the future Assign a present value to important future costs. No more CHINA PRICE: unrealistically low prices
unacceptable due to high external costs generated thereby More overall government control / oversight of private
enterprise (unfortunate but …) More rhetoric and perhaps investor / government
requirements for greater corporate responsibility Others?
RESPONES (iii): Values, particularly Composition of Consumption Increased focus on financial SECURITY and not just on
raising average income (how we miss that old iron rice bowl) Guaranteed minimum incomes? moves to limit income inequality
More attention to product quality and durability Greater awareness of non-material aspects of quality of life In general, less resource-intensive lifestyles (less is more?)
More attention to lives of quality not just lives of more More concern with services
Including information services
Substitutions: Values, stewardship and shared responsibilities? Among those values that hopefully would become
stronger: Sense of stewardship of planetary resources
– especially the biosphere for future human generations
Awareness of a shared future and a common purpose (we will have to pull together)– Especially in adjusting to mounting climate change
More Attention to the quality of life and not just ‘lives of more’
Others?