Background to Climate Change Discussion:

Sustainabilityand

Sustainable Development

Why should we worry about sustainability of development? Because, whether we like it or not,

CHANGE IS COMING!

At least three pressures: Over Exploitation of Planet’s Biological Resources

Rising World Population / Rising Resource Intensity of Production & Consumption

Potential for Near-term Climate Change

What consititues a sustainability concern? Those problems which if left unresolved would appear to

threaten either:– the very foundations of society

or

– the quality of life of its members

Not every problem is a sustainability concern True sustainability issues (with important exceptions) tend to be

– chronic and widespreadrather than

– short term and acute

Just Surviving vs. Surviving Well FUNCTIONAL Sustainability

Meeting basic material needs

QUALITATIVE Sustainability Looking out for Quality of life as well as survival itself

– i.e., don’t too readily give up quality for quantity

Sustainability vs. Sustainable Development Sustainability:

Reminds us of need to take long term view of our ability to keep going more or less as we are

About being able to keep doing what we are doing

Could be a Steady State

Sustainable Development: About our ability to meet our needs as we change and grow

Attaining a Dynamic Equilibrium– For this substitutions are key

PRESSURE 1: Worldwide Biological Resource Stress (UNEP GEO-4) “We are living FAR beyond our means”

Human footprint ~ 22 ha/person but planet only has about 16 ha/person for current population– Food– Fish– Fresh water– Ecosystem Stress / Biodiversity– Pollution

These problems are severe enough to put “humanity at risk”

PRESSURE 1 con't : FOOD Food: intensity of food production has increased

dramatically in past 20 years Food security for 2/3 of world population depends on fertilizers,

esp. nitrogen

Water availability a concern

Loss of genetic diversity a risk– 1 animal species provides 90% of all livestock;

– 30 crops providing 90% of world’s calories

Land degradation affects 1/3 of world population Thru pollution, soil erosion, nutrient depletion, water scarcity,

salinity,disruption to biological cycles

PRESSURE 1 con't : FISH Consumption of fish tripled from 1961 & 2001 But catches have declined since 1980s

PRESSURE 1 con't : FISH Consumption of fish tripled from 1961 & 2001 But catches have declined since 1980s Almost 1/3 of stocks have ‘crashed’ so far

And no large undeveloped or substantially underdeveloped stocks remain anywhere

Almost 40% of remaining stocks are overexploited (that is are on their way to crashing)

Scale of fish removal will lead to new predator/prey relationships and new ecological balances

Rise in oxygen dead zones in the ocean Increasing acidification of the oceans

PRESSURE 1 con't : FRESH WATER 10% of world’s rivers fail to reach the sea because

of irrigation withdrawals. Decreasing Fresh water for people and other users

Yet water use predicted to increase by 50% in developing and 18% in developed countries by 2025– Climate change could have adverse impacts on seasonal

water supply (e.g., less snowpack, glacial ice for spring melt; more intense rains with higher runoff)

Widespread contamination of aquatic systems from personal care products & pharmaceuticals (e.g. antibiotics, painkillers)

PRESSURE 1 con't : Ecosystem Stress / Biodiversity World’s Sixth Great Species Extinction now

underway Loss far greater for freshwater vertebrates than land or

marine ones Invasion of alien species Estimated 60% of world’s ecosystem services are

degraded or being used unsustainably

PRESSURE 1 con't : Pollution More than 50,000 man-made compounds are used

commercially Residuals have often unknown eco/health impacts

Some of the progress in decreasing pollution exposure in higher income economies has come via exporting pollution to the developing world

More than 2 million die prematurely each year due to pollution

PRESSURE 2: World Population Growth

Country Millions with

income > $US 10k yr. 1990

Millions with

income > $US 10k yr. 2000

China < 5 ~ 200

India < 5 ~ 15

Approx. levels in N. Amer. + W.

Europe + Japan/Korea +

rest of world (excl. China/India) 2000

~ 1,000 to 1,300

Poverty Rate Worldwide(< $US 1,100 US /person/yr)

1990 ~ 33% x pop 5.3 b = 1.8b 2000 ~ 21% x 6.1 b = 1.3b

Alternatively:

1990 ~ 3.6 billion not in extreme poverty (i.e., with at least some discretionary income)

2000 ~ 4.8 ( ~22% increase in absolute terms in a decade)

PRESSURE 2 con’t: Rapid Expansion in Number of Energy and other resource-intensive consumers

More Equitable but …also increase total resource consumption

Consumption threadmill !!storyofstff.com

PRESSURE 3:Climate change

Major unknowns Time lags

How far we push the system

Over-exploitation of

BioogicalResources

Rising population&

Resource intensity Of prod./Consump.

PotentialFor

Near termClimate change

Fundamental CHALLENGES To Sustainability

Pressures On Production / Consumption Systems

Prospects For Reduced Supply

Constrained Potential to meet Higher Demands

PANDEMIC(e.g., bird flu)

Wild Card

(Sudden, highly disruptive forMonths/years)

Looming on horizon; impacts for decades or permanent

Vulnerabilities heightened by Interconnectedness of Global Economy

Ways We Might Respond Technology & Price Adjustments Modify Structure of Production

Limits on generating external costs Revise way Present Value calculated for future benefits

/ costs (carbon tax??) Ban China Price strategy

Change in Values Individual & collective

– Incl. composition of consumption

NEW TECHNOLOGY &

PRICE ADJUSTMENTS

RESPONSES

Evolution of VALUES / GOALS(individual / collective)

esp. composition of consumption

Promote EFFICIENCY

/ FLEXIBLITY

Focus on QUALITY

Invest for INSURANCE

(Mostly TOP DOWN)

(Mostly BOTTOM UP)

(Mostly TOP DOWN)

CHALLENGES

RESPONSES (i): Technology & Price US Academy of Engineering notes among its 14 grand

challenges for the 21st century Making solar energy more affordable

– energy storage from intermittent renewable resources Nuclear fusion Increasing access to clean water Carbon sequestration

RESPONSES (i): Technology & Price US Academy of Engineering notes among its 14 grand

challenges for the 21st century Making solar energy more affordable (1)

– energy storage from intermittent renewable resources Nuclear fusion (2) Increasing access to clean water (3) Carbon sequestration (7)

Other Likely substitutions: Extensive mining of waste streams for metals More re-use of raw materials generally Return to practice of replacing parts, not entire units Emphasis on sustainable harvesting of biological resources Greater energy efficiency in buildings, transport, appliances

PRICE SIGNALS: rationing, shifts in investment Equity Issues, national stability ??

RESPONSES (ii) Structure of Production Systems Constraining ability to externalize costs

Esp. undermining of capacity for renewability (and perhaps even re-usability and long useable life)

Market and non-driven focus on insurance for the future Assign a present value to important future costs. No more CHINA PRICE: unrealistically low prices

unacceptable due to high external costs generated thereby More overall government control / oversight of private

enterprise (unfortunate but …) More rhetoric and perhaps investor / government

requirements for greater corporate responsibility Others?

RESPONES (iii): Values, particularly Composition of Consumption Increased focus on financial SECURITY and not just on

raising average income (how we miss that old iron rice bowl) Guaranteed minimum incomes? moves to limit income inequality

More attention to product quality and durability Greater awareness of non-material aspects of quality of life In general, less resource-intensive lifestyles (less is more?)

More attention to lives of quality not just lives of more More concern with services

Including information services

Substitutions: Values, stewardship and shared responsibilities? Among those values that hopefully would become

stronger: Sense of stewardship of planetary resources

– especially the biosphere for future human generations

Awareness of a shared future and a common purpose (we will have to pull together)– Especially in adjusting to mounting climate change

More Attention to the quality of life and not just ‘lives of more’

Others?