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Ariel Morrison
Graduate student, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
University of Colorado at Boulder
Is losing our sea ice affecting our clouds? A story about stability in a warming Arctic
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Motivating questions
Does atmospheric stability control Arctic clouds?
What are the most important process relationships between clouds, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice concentration?
What are the relative controls from large- and regional-scale processes?
Where should this work go in the future?
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Data
All monthly means 2006-07 – 2013-12 GOCCP – CALIPSO cloud fraction and
phase AIRS – temperature profiles (near surface
stability) ERA-Interim – sea level pressure HadISST – sea ice concentration CERES-EBAF – TOA net radiation
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First approach
Strategy: Look at annual means for geographic
distribution
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How does stability vary across the Arctic?
Kay and L’Ecuyer 2013
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<6K
Annual mean – same geographic region has low stability, SLP, SIC, and high cloud fraction
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What controls clouds in the stable
regime?
Region of fastest sea
ice loss!
Sea ice concentration trends 1979-2014
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Next approach Strategy:
Assess relationships between variables with scatterplots of monthly means in the stable regime
“Time-independent” relationships
>6K
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Low stability = large cloud fractionHigh stability = large range of cloud
fraction
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Cloudiest unstable points = open ocean
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Initial results
• Annual mean geographic variations = two
distinct regions
• Within stable regime:
• Low stability = always more clouds?
• High stability = large range in cloud
fraction – why?
• Arctic cloud controlled by both atmosphere
and surface
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Goals and future work• Add more data, eg. optical depth,
precipitation, boundary layer depth
• More conditioning to assess process
relationships
• Look at seasonality of process
relationships using TOA net radiation
• Suggestions welcome!
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Open ocean in the stable regime
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High stability, varied cloud fraction = air heated by solar radiation or advection
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