SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC

Rear Admiral Nils WangRoyal Danish Defence College

PUBLIC PERCEPTION

210-04-2023

COVER

Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the World (Cover Story / The Well)

As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia-and riches beneath the surface have been revived. With Russia planting a flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole, Canada talking tough and Washington wanting to be a player, who will win the world's new Great Game?

THE UNCLOS RULES

310-04-2023

BORDER LINES AND CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC

Source:

Durham University

UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS

610-04-2023

Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Oil" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.

Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009. 

97% INSIDE EEZs

Ice extension – as of February

Ice extension – as of February

NEW SHIPPING ROUTES

The Ilulissat Declaration:

• Cooperation and Dialog

• Common Arctic Responsibility

• Disputes => International rules

”THE ARCTIC FIVE”

MAY 2008

THE ARCTIC CONTEXT

”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”.

Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996

NORWAY

910-04-2023

The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011

Strategy for the High North

(2006)

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996

RUSSIA

1010-04-2023

The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997

Arctic Strategy (2008)

National Interestsa) Strategic ressource baseb) Peace and cooperationc) Conservation of eco-systemsd) Use Northern Sea Route as national transportation system

AP: Russia plans to establish an Arctic brigade on the border to Norway already in 2011.Photo: Trude Pettersen

AUG 2010

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

1110-04-2023

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ?

National Security Presidential Directive and Homeland Security Presidential Directive

It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to:

•   Meet national security and homeland security ;

•   Protect the Arctic environment;•   Ensure sustainability

January 9, 2009

CANADA

1210-04-2023

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003

Hans Island

?

KINGDOM OF DENMARK

1310-04-2023

UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 2004

31 billion barrels

17 billion barrels

Kuupik:Grundlover ikkeløsrivelse

K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang

1410-04-2023

REE OUTSIDE CHINA

1510-04-2023

THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES

CONCLUSIONS

OPERATIONAL COOPERATION

REGULATION OF RESSOURCES

ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE CAPABILITY

STABILISING FACTORS

• ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS• ILULISSAT DECLARATION• ARCTIC COUNSIL• NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM

PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS

RISK FACTORS

• AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION• SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE• ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER• ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM• ”COD WARS”• NATO/EU/CHINA/?• GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”?

THE JOKER

FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONS