arctic seurity
DESCRIPTION
During a recent meeting in Copenhagen (November 14, 2011), Second Line of Defense met with Head of the Danish Military Academy, to discuss the Arctic opportunity and challange. This was the breifing from which the conversation was generated. We will soon add this conversation to our website which can be found at http://www.sldinfo.comTRANSCRIPT
SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC
Rear Admiral Nils WangRoyal Danish Defence College
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
210-04-2023
COVER
Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the World (Cover Story / The Well)
As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia-and riches beneath the surface have been revived. With Russia planting a flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole, Canada talking tough and Washington wanting to be a player, who will win the world's new Great Game?
THE UNCLOS RULES
310-04-2023
BORDER LINES AND CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC
Source:
Durham University
UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS
610-04-2023
Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Oil" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
97% INSIDE EEZs
Ice extension – as of February
Ice extension – as of February
NEW SHIPPING ROUTES
The Ilulissat Declaration:
• Cooperation and Dialog
• Common Arctic Responsibility
• Disputes => International rules
”THE ARCTIC FIVE”
MAY 2008
THE ARCTIC CONTEXT
”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”.
Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996
NORWAY
910-04-2023
The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011
Strategy for the High North
(2006)
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996
RUSSIA
1010-04-2023
The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997
Arctic Strategy (2008)
National Interestsa) Strategic ressource baseb) Peace and cooperationc) Conservation of eco-systemsd) Use Northern Sea Route as national transportation system
AP: Russia plans to establish an Arctic brigade on the border to Norway already in 2011.Photo: Trude Pettersen
AUG 2010
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1110-04-2023
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ?
National Security Presidential Directive and Homeland Security Presidential Directive
It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to:
• Meet national security and homeland security ;
• Protect the Arctic environment;• Ensure sustainability
January 9, 2009
CANADA
1210-04-2023
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003
Hans Island
?
KINGDOM OF DENMARK
1310-04-2023
UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 2004
31 billion barrels
17 billion barrels
Kuupik:Grundlover ikkeløsrivelse
K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang
1410-04-2023
REE OUTSIDE CHINA
1510-04-2023
THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES
CONCLUSIONS
OPERATIONAL COOPERATION
REGULATION OF RESSOURCES
ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE CAPABILITY
STABILISING FACTORS
• ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS• ILULISSAT DECLARATION• ARCTIC COUNSIL• NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM
PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS
RISK FACTORS
• AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION• SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE• ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER• ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM• ”COD WARS”• NATO/EU/CHINA/?• GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”?
THE JOKER
FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONS