arctic seurity

15
SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC Rear Admiral Nils Wang Royal Danish Defence College

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During a recent meeting in Copenhagen (November 14, 2011), Second Line of Defense met with Head of the Danish Military Academy, to discuss the Arctic opportunity and challange. This was the breifing from which the conversation was generated. We will soon add this conversation to our website which can be found at http://www.sldinfo.com

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Arctic Seurity

SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC

Rear Admiral Nils WangRoyal Danish Defence College

Page 2: Arctic Seurity

PUBLIC PERCEPTION

210-04-2023

COVER

Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the World (Cover Story / The Well)

As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia-and riches beneath the surface have been revived. With Russia planting a flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole, Canada talking tough and Washington wanting to be a player, who will win the world's new Great Game?

Page 3: Arctic Seurity

THE UNCLOS RULES

310-04-2023

Page 4: Arctic Seurity

BORDER LINES AND CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC

Source:

Durham University

Page 5: Arctic Seurity

UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS

610-04-2023

Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Oil" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.

Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009. 

97% INSIDE EEZs

Page 6: Arctic Seurity

Ice extension – as of February

Ice extension – as of February

NEW SHIPPING ROUTES

Page 7: Arctic Seurity

The Ilulissat Declaration:

• Cooperation and Dialog

• Common Arctic Responsibility

• Disputes => International rules

”THE ARCTIC FIVE”

MAY 2008

THE ARCTIC CONTEXT

”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”.

Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996

Page 8: Arctic Seurity

NORWAY

910-04-2023

The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011

Strategy for the High North

(2006)

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996

Page 9: Arctic Seurity

RUSSIA

1010-04-2023

The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997

Arctic Strategy (2008)

National Interestsa) Strategic ressource baseb) Peace and cooperationc) Conservation of eco-systemsd) Use Northern Sea Route as national transportation system

AP: Russia plans to establish an Arctic brigade on the border to Norway already in 2011.Photo: Trude Pettersen

AUG 2010

Page 10: Arctic Seurity

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

1110-04-2023

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ?

National Security Presidential Directive and Homeland Security Presidential Directive

It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to:

•   Meet national security and homeland security ;

•   Protect the Arctic environment;•   Ensure sustainability

January 9, 2009

Page 11: Arctic Seurity

CANADA

1210-04-2023

UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003

Hans Island

?

Page 12: Arctic Seurity

KINGDOM OF DENMARK

1310-04-2023

UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 2004

31 billion barrels

17 billion barrels

Kuupik:Grundlover ikkeløsrivelse

K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang

Page 13: Arctic Seurity

1410-04-2023

REE OUTSIDE CHINA

Page 14: Arctic Seurity

1510-04-2023

THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES

Page 15: Arctic Seurity

CONCLUSIONS

OPERATIONAL COOPERATION

REGULATION OF RESSOURCES

ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE CAPABILITY

STABILISING FACTORS

• ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS• ILULISSAT DECLARATION• ARCTIC COUNSIL• NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM

PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS

RISK FACTORS

• AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION• SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE• ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER• ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM• ”COD WARS”• NATO/EU/CHINA/?• GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”?

THE JOKER

FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONS