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“There’salwaysaBullMarketsomewhere”
JimCramer,Host,CNBC’sMadMoney
Diversifytofindit
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Disclaimer
• TheOttawaBranchoftheNationalAssociationofFederalRetireesandthefacilitatorofthisseminardonotinanywayofferfinancialorinvestingadvice.
• ThisseminarandtheinformationinthisPowerPointpresentationareprovidedforeducationpurposesonly.
• Investinginvolvesrisk.Anypersonalinvestingdecisionsshouldbemadeonlyafterindividualduediligenceand/orwiththeassistanceofaregisteredfinancialadviserorbroker.
• OttawaBranchtakesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatparticipantsmaymake.
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Acknowledgements
• NAFROttawa,LindaandRamin,fororganizingandsponsoringthewebinars
• MichaelPatenaude,OttawaShareClubfortheexcellentgraphs
• FrankSchilder foractingasZoomMaster
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Frequentlyusedacronymsandterms
• ETF– ExchangeTradedFund.Amutualfundsoldlikeastockwith(usually)lowerfeesthanmutualfunds
• MER– ManagementExpenseRatio.Thefeesin%thatyoupaytoamutualfundorETFtocoverthecostofmanagingthefundandpayingthepersonwhosoldyouthemutualfund
• Index– aselectedlistofstocksorotherinvestmentschosentoreflecttheaveragevalueofatypeofstocks,bondsorotherassets
• S&P500– TheStandardandPoors indexofthe500largestUSstocks
• TSX300– The300largestCanadianstockissuingcompanieslistedontheTorontoStockExchange
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Agreatstrategistoncesaid:
• Thereareknownknowns.• Thereareknownunknowns.• Buttherearealsounknownunknowns
- thethingswedon’tknowwedon’tknow.
• LooselytranslatedfromDonaldRumsfeld,U.S.SecretaryofDefence,2001-2005
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FactsversusOpinions
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ThevalueofInvestingAdvice&MarketTiming
• FromtheGlobeandMail,ReportonBusiness,August16,2019:• “Theargumentforgoldisgettingbrighterbytheday”,TimShufelt,G&M
• “Theargumentagainstgoldstocks….Don’tdoit”,BMOCapitalMarkets
• SinceAug16,2019• Goldbullionisup36%• GoldminerETFXGDisup42%• AsofAug31,2020
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Indexinvesting– boomordoom?
• 60%ofUSStockMarketiscontrolledbyIndex(Passive)investing
• 25%ofallIndexmoneyisgoingintothefivelargesttechstocks– theFAANGs
• CurrentS&P500PricetoEarningsratio=28:1.
• Average=16:1
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2rulesforlongterminvestingsuccess
• 1.Developandsticktoalowcost,diversified assetallocationstrategy
• 2.Focusontimeinthemarketratherthantimingthemarket
• ProbabilityoflossS&P500• 1year 26%• 3year 16%• 5year 11%• 10year 6%
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Themostimportantfactofinvesting– regressiontothemean.Source:AWealthofCommonSense.com
Themostimportantfactofinvesting– regressiontothemean.
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Stockmarkets– whatcouldpossiblygowrong?Note2000– 2013/14period
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Pollquestion1
• Ifyouhad$100,000toinvesttoday,howmuchwouldyouinvestinstocks?
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JimCramer,thealwaysenthusiastichostofCNBC’sMadMoney,endseveryshowwiththisquote
“There’salwaysabullmarketsomewhere”.
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Selectinvestmentsthatoftenactdifferentlythanstocks
• Goldandgoldminers
• LongTerm,HighQuality,GovernmentBonds
• SelectedRealEstateInvestmentTrusts(REITs)
• AlternativeInvestments(Infrastructure)
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GoldBullionversusS&P500NegativeBeta
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GoldMinersvsgoldbullionPositiveBeta
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LongTermGovernment BondsIt’snottheinterestrate,it’sthecapitalgain
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LongTermGovernment BondsIt’snottheinterestrate,it’sthecapitalgain
30yearUSGovtbondexampleCurrentinterestrate1.4%Ifratedropsto0.9%Bondvalueincreasesby13%
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RealEstateInvestmentTrusts(REITs)vsTSX
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AlternativeInvestmentExamples
• Cellphonetowersystems
• Urbanwaterandgasdistribution
• Gaspipelines
• TollRoads
• Containerports
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BrookfieldInfrastructurevsTSX&S&P500
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Pollquestion2
• TheaverageCanadianactivelymanagedmutualfundcharges:
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Investmentvehicleexamples
• GoldBullionETFs: MNT,CGL,CGL.C(MER0.4- 0.6)
• GoldMinersETF: XGD(MER0.65)
• LTGovernmentBondETF: ZTL(MER0.25)
• REITManagedETF: RIT(MER0.98)
• AllinOneETFs: VBAL,XBAL,ZBAL,HBAL(MER0.2- 0.25)
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“AllinOne”AssetAllocationETFs(.25%MER)
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AllinOneAssetAllocationETFs(2)
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Performance,1YearJuly31,2020
• VCIP ConservativeIncome 8.0%
• VCNS Conservative 7.9%
• VBAL Balanced 7.6%
• VGRO Growth 7.1%
• VEQT AllEquity 6.6%
• VCN TSX 1.5%
• VUN S&P500,C$ 15.8%
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The“AlwaysaBullMarketSomewhere”modelportfolio
• BalancedETF 80%• Goldbullion/minersETF 5%• REITETF 5%• AlternativeETFlike 5%• Cash 5%
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Disclosure
• Thepresenterand/orhisfamilyholdthefollowinginvestmentsmentionedinthewebinar:
• VBAL
• XGD
• RIT
• ZTL
• BIP.UN
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NextWebinars
• September23 GoldasPortfolioInsurance
• October7 BondsandPreferredsharescanstillmakemoney
• October21 OneDecisionInvestmentPortfolios
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Questions?