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Be part of the conversation
Annual Planning Survey 2015 - Manchester
• #PlanningSurvey
• @GL_Hearn
• @BritProp
• @CapitaProperty 15 October 2015
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Welcome
Alastair Crowdy National Head of Planning, Development & Regeneration, GL Hearn
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Agenda
• Setting the scene and findings Phil Robinson, Planning Associate Director, GL Hearn
• The developer’s response Mark Waite, Chairman North West Planning, Bloor Homes
• The local authority’s response Paul Moore, Head of Planning, Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council
• Debate, conclusions and next steps Ian Fletcher, Director of Policy (Real Estate), British Property Federation
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Phil Robinson, Planning Associate Director 15 October 2015
The Results of the Annual Planning Survey 2015
#PlanningSurvey
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#planningsurvey
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APS Survey
Major Applications: Bristol area
2012 2013 2014
Major Applications: London
Major Applications: Greater Manchester
2011
* * * NPPF
2015
*
5,400+ applications reviewed and 800+ opinions canvassed over five years
Conservative-Lib Dem coalition
Conservative majority
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LPA and Applicant Survey
Structured online research
Conducted June/July 2015
271 Applicants
30 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs)
Major Applications Research
Greater London (33 LPAs*)
Greater Manchester (10 LPAs)
Bristol and surrounding area (4 LPAs)
FOI requests and desk research
*Relatively recently formed LLDC not included in research to allow for year-on-year comparisons. In 2014-15, LLDC determined 11 major planning applications
2015 Survey & Research – Key Stats
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1. ‘What’s happening on the ground?’ Major planning application determination volumes, approval rates and speed
2. ‘What’s the mood amongst those involved?’ Opinions on existing policies, future priorities and barriers to growth
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Volume of new major applications*
Overall London Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding
area
-14%
-26%
+19%
1,495
1,289
1,075
775
1,021
758
389 294 351
180 180
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
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7 out of 10 boroughs in Greater Manchester saw growth in major application* determinations
7
30
7
39
10
34
25 28
51
24
52
22
45
34
Oldham Bolton Stockport Wigan Rochdale Salford Trafford
2013/14 2014/15
2013/14 2014/15
Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED
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Approval rates have been largely constant over four years
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
86%
84%
96%
86%
Overall
London
Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding area
APPROVAL RATES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
86%
84%
96%
86%
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London and Greater Manchester have both experienced a rise in average determination times
Overall London Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding
area
Average submission to determination time (weeks)
+4 weeks +6 weeks
+3 weeks -4 weeks
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
28
32
37
27 28
34
27 24
31
27
DETERMINATION TIMES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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• 14 weeks average determination time • 100% approval rate for major applications
Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Num
ber o
f maj
or a
pplic
atio
ns* d
eter
min
ed (2
014/
15)
Average submission to determination time (weeks)
Five LPAs perform strongly when volume linked to time
Westminster
Note; Three LPAs excluded from graph due average determination times of greater than one year *Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
Bristol City Bolton
Manchester City S. Gloucestershire
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED AND DETERMINATION TIMES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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294
351
24
27
Volume jump in Manchester but mirrored rise in time
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
95% 96%
2013/14 2014/15
Volume*
Approval rate
Time (weeks) Submission to determination
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1. ‘What’s happening on the ground?’ Major planning application determination volumes, approval rates and speeds
2. ‘What’s the mood amongst those involved?’ Opinions on existing policies, future priorities and barriers to growth
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When the previous coalition government came to power in 2010, a series of new ‘growth-friendly planning rules’1 were unveiled including NPPF,
Neighbourhood Plans and CIL…
…five years on – what has been their impact?
1 2012 Budget Statement by Chancellor George Osborne
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LPAs think the planning environment is worse now than it was 5 years ago
Base: All respondents from LPAs (28) and private applicants (263) answering the question Q: Overall, do you think that the planning environment now is better or worse than it was when the previous Government came to power in 2010?
About the same – 25%
Worse 39%
Better 25%
About the same – 42% Worse 17%
Much better = 3%
Applicants LPAs
Better 32%
Much worse 11%
Much worse = 7%
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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NPPF is seen to have increased development activity
4% 4% 14% 36% 43%
4% 21% 51% 23%
Decreased activity a lot Decreased activity a little No impact Increased activity a little Increased activity a lot
LPAs
Applicants
Base: All respondents from LPAs (24-29) and private applicants (203-248) answering the question Q: Specifically, how effective do you feel each of the following policies have been at increasing the level of development in the UK?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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But both LPAs and applicants do not think Neighbourhood Plans and CIL have had a positive impact on planning activity…
11%
32%
19%
56%
48%
8%
19%
4%
4%
CIL
NeighbourhoodPlans
10%
9%
45%
35%
35%
37%
7%
17%
3%
2%
CIL
NeighbourhoodPlans
Decreased a lot Decreased a little No impact Increased a little Increased a lot
LPAs
Applicants
LPA & APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research Base: All respondents from LPAs (24-29) and applicants (203-248) answering the question Q: Specifically, how effective do you feel each of the following policies have been at increasing the level of development in the UK?
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Around one in three applicants and LPAs would like to abandon CIL and Neighbourhood Plans
NPPF Neighbourhood
Plans CIL
38%
2%
60%
14%
57%
29%
13%
53%
34%
Key:
Keep the policy but make some changes
Keep the policy exactly the same
Abandon the policy completely
Base: All LPAs (22-29) and applicants (174-239) answering the question Q: What advice would you give the new Government in relation to each of the following existing policies?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
LPAs
Applicants
Priorities for LPAs and applicants
Invest in infrastructure
Accelerate housing delivery
Regenerate brownfield
Increase affordable housing
Invest in commercial space
Densification
COMMON AIMS LPA AIMS
LOW PRIORITIES
Brownfield regeneration, accelerated housing delivery and investment in infrastructure are common aims
Base: All LPAs (30) and applicants (271) Q: Thinking about your organisation, which, if any, of the following are priorities for you?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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But not everyone has confidence in government to support housing delivery
Base: All LPAs (5-24) and applicants (85-161) answering the question Q: And how confident are you that the new Government will help enable each of the following?
Confidence in government to support priorities…
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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Applicants see the planning system as the biggest barrier to accelerating housing delivery
18%
25%
26%
29%
43%
52%
9%
19%
38%
41%
44%
69%
Lack of demand from buyers
Securing funding for developments
CIL
High requirement for affordable housing
Shortage of land
The planning system
Major barriers to increasing the rate of housing delivery (Applicants only)
20152014
Base: All applicants quoting ‘accelerating housing delivery’ as a priority (160) Q: Which, if any, of the following do you see as major barriers to increasing the rate of housing delivery?
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
INC
RE
AS
ING
B
AR
RIE
RS
FA
LLIN
G
BA
RR
IER
S
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3 in 4 applicants are now dissatisfied with the time a typical planning application takes…
28% 47% 18% 7%
Very dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied Very satisfied
Base: All applicants (271) Q: Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the length of time a typical planning application takes to reach a decision?
75% dissatisfied or very dissatisfied
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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…and dissatisfaction with planning application times shows a gradual deterioration trend
19% 51% 18% 11%
Very dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied Very satisfied
2015
2014
2013
Base: All applicants (271) Q: Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the length of time a typical planning application takes to reach a decision?
14% 57% 20% 7%
28% 47% 18% 7%
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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And nearly 9 in 10 LPAs are struggling with under-resourcing
28%
34%
36%
55%
76%
62%
82%
86%
Lack of funding for developments
Shortage of land
Aligning aims of LPAs and developers
Under-resourcing
Challenges to achieving LPA aims (LPAs only)
Significant challenge Challenge (including significant challenge) Small or no challenge
Base: All LPAs answering the question (28-29) Q: To what extent do you expect the following to be challenges to your organisation achieving its aims for the next 5 years?
LPA SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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65% Happily accept
increased fees in return for improved
service
25% Unhappy but
wouldn’t affect
development activity
10%
Negatively impact development activity
Around two-thirds of applicants would happily pay more fees in return for a better service
Base: All applicants answering the question (248) Q: If planning fees were to increase on the promise of a better service, what would be your reaction?
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
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To support the Northern Powerhouse we need to ensure development activity is not impeded The planning system needs investment
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