annual planning survey 2016 - manchester

glhearn.com

Welcome

Ian Fletcher

Director of Policy (Real Estate),

British Property Federation

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Agenda

• Setting the scene and findings Phil Robinson, Planning Associate Director, GL Hearn

• The developer’s response Thomas Hattig Development Manager, Vastint

• The local authority’s response Rebecca Coley, Head of Planning and Development, Trafford Council

• Debate, conclusions and next steps Ian Fletcher, Director of Policy (Real Estate), British Property Federation

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The Findings

Annual Planning Survey 2016

#PlanningSurvey

Phil Robinson

GL Hearn and BPF’s - thought-leaders in the industry

Collect

Analyse

Engage

Collect factual data on numbers, determination

speeds and approval rates of major applications

Collect opinion data on the status of the planning

system from LPAs and applicants

Analyse MAR/APS data and overlay with industry

knowledge to create compelling thought-

leadership content

Drive engagement with GL Hearn and BPF via

thought-leadership report, industry

conferences and other deliverables

#planningsurvey

Robust research project in its 5th year

Major Application

Research (MAR)

• Greater London

• Greater Manchester

• South West

• North East Combined

• Liverpool City Region

• West Yorkshire

• Sheffield City Region

• Edinburgh & Glasgow

Annual Planning

Survey (APS)

• Structured online survey

• Conducted in June / July

2016

• Across England & Scotland

• Public and private sector

#planningsurvey

Taking stock

#planningsurvey

Overall volume of determinations dropped in tracked

regions

1,075

775

389

1,021

294

180

758

351

180

772

313

108 273 172

261

142 49

London GreaterManchester

South West North EastCombinedAuthority

Liverpool CityRegion

West Yorkshire Sheffield CityRegion

Edinburgh andGlasgow

2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

+2%

-11%

-40%

-7% compared to 2014-15

(1,289 1,193)

Number of major applications determined…

#planningsurvey

9

Greater Manchester – determinations fall in 6/10 Authorities

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ma

ncheste

r

Tam

esid

e

Ro

ch

dale

Tra

ffo

rd

Salford

Sto

ckp

ort

Old

ham

Wig

an

Bolton

Bury

Change in number of major applications determined by boroughs 2014/15 2015/16

#planningsurvey

The Northern Powerhouse

The Northern Powerhouse determined a total of

1,161 major applications this year, 50% more than

Greater London.

#planningsurvey

11

Edinburgh

and Glasgow

90% 80%

Greater

London

92%

Northern

Powerhouse

90%

North East Liverpool

City

95%

West

Yorkshire

90%

Sheffield City

93%

91%

South West

Greater

Manchester

92%

Approval rates

#planningsurvey

…London approval rate at lowest level since study began

2015

2016

84%

-4%

Greater

London

2014

2013

2012 85%

84%

86%

80%

86%

+5%

South

West

82%

91%

95%

-3%

Greater

Manchester

96%

92%

95%

#planningsurvey

All regions take at least 27 weeks to determine

applications

37

27 28

24

31 34

27 27

32

28

32

28 27

31 31

63

GreaterLondon

GreaterManchester

South West North East LiverpoolCity

WestYorkshire

SheffieldCity

Edinburghand

Glasgow*

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Average submission to determination times (weeks)

-2 weeks

+1 week

+5 weeks

*Determination of applications dating from 2004 (Edinburgh City) and 2008 (Glasgow City) heavily influence long determination times

Major application submission to determination takes 28

weeks in Greater Manchester on average

24

27 28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Note - excludes pre-submission and post-determination periods

Target

Target (EIA)

#planningsurvey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Nu

mb

er

of

majo

r ap

pli

cati

on

s d

ete

rmin

ed

(2015/1

6)

Average submission to determination time (weeks)

Manchester performs strongly when volume linked to time

Manchester

Trafford Wigan

Stockport Oldham

Bury

Bury

Salford

Rochdale Tameside

#planningsurvey

294

351

313

24

27 28

Change in volume, approval and average determination time

for Greater Manchester

95% 96%

92%

2013/14 2014/15

Volume

Approval rate

Time (weeks) Submission to determination

2016/16

#planningsurvey

Applicants are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with

decision times

28% 47% 18% 7%

29% 51% 16% 4%

Very dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral - it's fine Satisfied Very satisfied

2016

14% 57% 20% 7%

19% 51% 18% 11%

2013

2014

2015

-62%

-75%

NET

-68%

-58%

#planningsurvey

Opinions of the planning system have plummeted

Applicants

2015

Much better 3%

Better

32%

About the same

42%

Worse

17%

Much worse 7%

+11% NET

Much better 1%

Better

25%

About the same

38%

Worse

28%

Much worse 8%

-9% NET

2016

LPAs

Much better 0%

Better

25%

About the same

25%

Worse

39%

Much worse 11%

-25% NET

2015

Much better 2%

Better

13%

About the same

21%

Worse

46%

Much worse 19%

-50% NET

2016

#planningsurvey

Remember: 3 in 5 LPAs last year said that they are under-

resourced…

59%

#planningsurvey

Policy focus

#planningsurvey

Plan-making policies: the NPPF and Local Plans are

increasing development activity

Decrease No change Increase

NET

2016

7%

5%

24%

27%

70%

68%

Applicants

LPAs +63%

+63%

19%

8%

35%

36%

46%

56%

Applicants

LPAs +48%

+27%

NPPF

Local Plans

Neighbourhood

Plans 39%

11%

39%

54%

22%

34%

Applicants

LPAs +23%

-17%

-8%

-25%

NET

2015

+72%

+69%

#planningsurvey

Decision-taking policies : CIL is having the least effect on

development activity

Decrease No change Increase

NET

+72%

+86%

6%

8%

17%

89%

78%

Applicants

LPAsOffice to residential

permitted

development rights

7% 53%

47%

39%

53%

Applicants

LPAs +53%

+32%

Planning

Performance

Agreements

13%

6%

51%

74%

36%

19%

Applicants

LPAs +13%

+23%

Cities and Local

Government

Devolution

Community

Infrastructure Levy

-16%

-31% 48%

19%

36%

78%

17%

3%

Applicants

LPAs

#planningsurvey

Tackling the housing crisis remains the #1 priority for all

Affordable

homes

88%

Homes

for sale

59%

Rental

homes

37%

Office

34%

Infrastructure

78%

Retail

29%

Leisure

7%

Homes

for sale

67%

Affordable

homes

42%

Rental

homes

37%

Infrastructure

35%

Office

31%

Retail

29% Leisure

17%

LPAs Applicants

Priorities for

their

organisation

#planningsurvey

…but there are widespread concerns on delivering housing

Applicants

About the same 46%

Better 23%

Much better

2%

NET:

Worse 24%

About the same 31%

LPAs

Better 10%

Much better

4%

Worse 27%

Much worse

29%

-42% -5%

Much worse

7%

Has the Government’s approach to planning made housing delivery better or worse in

the last 12 months?

#planningsurvey

Further finessing of the

planning system

#planningsurvey

Applicants think Permission in Principle can improve the

system; LPAs want to see application fee changes

53%

32%

44%

30%

19%

31%

51%

56%

57%

66%

Changes to Planning ApplicationFees

Brownfield Register

Planning Performance Reviews

Section 106 Dispute Resolution

Permission in Principle

Applicants LPAs

#planningsurvey

LPAs and applicants believe that PPAs will have a positive

impact on alleviating LPA resourcing pressures…

No change 41%

53%

6%

No change 22%

61%

17%

LPAs Applicants

Positive impact

Negative impact

#planningsurvey

LPAs want PPAs to follow standard formats; applicants

want set timeframes

LPAs Applicants

Standard format to follow 45% 48%

Clear guidelines on payments

to be achieved 31% 48%

Set timeframe for PPA

agreement 35% 65%

#planningsurvey

Talking points

#planningsurvey

#planningsurvey

‘marginal

gains’

#planningsurvey

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#PlanningSurvey

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The developer’s response

Thomas Hattig

Development Manager, Vastint


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The local authority’s response

Rebecca Coley

Head of Planning and Development, Trafford Council


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Wifi:

Art Gallery Public


Debate,

conclusions and

next steps

• #PlanningSurvey

• @GL_Hearn

• @BritProp

• @CapitaProperty