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ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR CHILE’S REGION V PORTS
ASAF ASHARNATIONAL PORTS & WATERWAYS INT., USA
www.asafashar.comApril 2012
“SOÑAR VALPARAÍSO”
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Presentation Agenda
• Traffic Forecast• Fleet Forecast• EPSA/EPV Plan• Alternative Plan• Capacity of Plans• Capability of Plans• Cost of Plans• Summary & Conclusions
Demand Scenarios
Comparison
Supply Options
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Past Traffic Developments
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
2008 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
TEUsChange (%)
14.5%
9.5%
ContainerizationContainerization (Reefer, Copper, Forest Products)
Growing Import & Asia
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Forecast Scenarios
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
2017 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
6% 15% Actual
177%
4.0 mil.
2.2 mil.
Only to 2017 when Outer Harbor needed
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World’s Economic Forecast
Slowing Recovery
Increasing Volatility
IHS Global Insight; Wilbur Smith; Ashar
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Present and Future ShipsCategory Name Operator Capacity
(TEUs)Dimensions LOA x Beam x Draft
(m)
Arrangement Under-Below-Across (rows)
Sub Panamax Cap San Antonio HSD 3,700 252 x 32.2 x 12.5 8 -6 - 13
Panamax - Max Zim Savannah Zim 5,000 295 x 32.3 x 13.5 8 -6 - 13
Post Panamax I Monte Class III HSD 6,300 300 x 40 x 13.5 9 - 5 - 16
Post Panamax II Sovereign Maersk Maersk 8,000 347 x 42.8 x 14.5 9 - 6 - 18
Post Panamax III New Panamax (NPX) --- 12,500 366 x 49 x 15.2 10 - 6 - 19/20
Post Panamax III MSC Daniela MSC 13,800 366 x 51.3 x 15 10 – 6 - 20
Post Panamax III Emma Maersk Maersk 14,500 396 x 56.4 x 15.5 10 – 6 - 22
Post Panamax III Triple E 18,000 165,000 400 x 59 x 15.5 10 – 8 - 23
Larger Newer Ships more Fuel Efficient
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Fleet Composition by Line
Alphaliner 2012; Ashar
Growing Consolidation (Super Alliances), Larger Ships, Larger Terminals
38%
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Presentation Agenda
• Traffic Forecast• Fleet Forecast• EPSA/EPV Plan• Alternative Plan• Capacity of Plans• Capability of Plans• Cost of Plans• Summary & Conclusions
Demand Scenarios
Comparison
Supply Options
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Comparison of Development Plans
• Capacity – Forecast Scenarios (TEUs)• Capability – Future Ships (Depth, Turning
Basin, Berth Length, Yard Area)• Efficiency – Scale Economies; Automation;
Land Access; Logistic• Competition• (Environmental Concerns)
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Alternative Plans• EPSA/EPV Plan –– Short Term: Minor Extension of Present Terminals– Mid Term: New Terminals in San Antonio (Puerto
Central) and Valparaiso (Terminal 2)• Alternative Plan (AA & PW) –– Short Term: Meaningful Expansion of Present
Terminals– Long Term: Outer Terminal
• Cost Comparison – Only Basic Infrastructure– Per Capacity Unit ($/ TEU)
• Only Containers
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Competition
• Valparaiso and San Antonio serve the same Hinterland– No Captive Cargo
• Similar Services & Prices– Line Switching for $10/Box– Both STI & TPS Low Price $120/Box
• Tight Price Control by EPSA/EPV• Small Risk of Collusion• 3 Terminals = Sufficient Number of Competitors
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Automated Modern Terminal600 x 600 m = 32 ha; 16 ha / 300-m Berth
8 STS (65 MT, no tandem); 32 ASC (8 wide, 1-over-5); 20 Shuttle Strads
TTI; Ashar2012
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Middle Harbor Terminal Long Beach (1)2 Terminals; 80 ha; 1.3 M TEUs; 16,250 TEUs/ha
1 Terminals; 120 ha; 3.3 M TEUs; 27,500 TEUs/ha (+70%); $1.2 billion; 40-year Lease
POLB; Ashar2012
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Berth’s Scale Economies
0.4 0.425 0.45 0.475 0.5 0.525 0.55 0.575 0.6 0.625 0.65 0.675 0.7 0.725 0.75 0.7750.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.60
Berth Utilization (E2/E2/n)
Wai
t ing
Tim
e /
Serv
ice
Tim
e
n = 2
UNCTAD; Ashar 2009
3 X (0.68 – 0.58) = 0.3; 3rd Berth = 1.3
n = 3
0.1
More Combinations of Ship Length1,200 = 240 x 5; 900 = 240 x 3
Fixed Facilities: Gate, Administration, Maintenance
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Puerto Central
Lagoon
Bulk
San Antonio Harbor
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Original EPSA Plan
Shallow
Deep
Lagoon
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171717
NN
900 m
131 m
16 Ha
7,2 Ha8,8 Ha
Ampliación a incorporar por canje a STI
Área de respaldo a canjear a STI
Área Inundada a canjear a STI
Puerto Central
Ampliación Frente
Área Total: 31 ha (40 ha)Frente lineal: 746 m (900 m)
Calado: 15 m
2011 EPSA Plan -- STI
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1818
120 m
620 m740 m945 m
250
m
N
Área Total: 35.7haFrente lineal: 945 m (700 + 245) + 250 = 1,195m
Profudidal : 15 m
900 m
Ship-side Yard: 12 ha; 4 ha / Berth
Odd-Shape Area; Traffic?
STI Sea Protection: 2% to 5% Downtime
2011 EPSA Plan – Puerto Central
14 ha
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19
120 m
620 m740 m
Área Total: 13 haFrente lineal: 740 mProfudidal: 14.5 m
740 m << 900, 945 m of SA Terminals
Original EPV Plan -- TPS
6.5 ha/Berth
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Original EPV Plan (1)
Downtow
n
Terminal 2
Terminal 1TPS (628 m, 16 ha)
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Original EPV Plan (2)30 - 40 m Depth in Front!
6 – 7 ha / Berth; Remote Gate? Logistics?
Limited Protection: 5 - 15% Downtown
Constrained Land Access; Rail?
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EPV 2012 Bidding
Sea Protection; Land Access
Only 2 BerthsOnly 1 Container Berth?
?
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Expanded STI, San Antonio
769m (-15 m)
+9 ha; 43 ha
l
2012: 2.2 million TEUs
+430m; 1,200m; 49 ha
Ashar 2009
2007: 1.55 million TEUs
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Expanded TPS, Valparaiso
+516m; 1,130m
+7 ha; 23 ha
610 m; 16 ha
Ashar 2009
2012: 1.87 million TEUs
2007: 1.45 million TEUs
2012: 6 ha / Berth
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Port Moin, APMTPhase I: 600 m / 40 ha / -16 m / 1.3 M TEUs; Final: 1,500 m / 80 ha / -18 m/ 6 M TEUs
Bid 8/2010; Award 3/2011; Phase I: 8/2016; 33 Years; 80% of Trade; Exclusivity; Price Control
APMT 2011; Google; Ashar 2012
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Colombo South Harbor
Present PortFuture Port
3 x 1,200 m (3 x 400m) ; 18m (23m); 600 ha; 7.2 M TEUS (0.8 M TEUs/Berth)
6.8 km Breakwater; $1.6 billion; 75% Transshipment; Indian Direct?
Ashar; Sri Lanka Port Authority
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Rotterdam’s Maasvlakte 2
Open-Sea Reclamation; 240 M cu m; 11 km Seawall; 1,000 ha
3 Terminals: Euromax, APMT and ECT/HPH, each 1,200 m; 1.2 mil TEU/Berth
Future Port
Present Port
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Outer Harbor 400 x 500 m Modules
600 m Diameter
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Ashar/Woodbury 2009
http://www.lyd.com/lyd/controls/neochannels/neo_ch4358/deploy/presentacion2.pdf
Logistic Park
Outer Harbor Development
Options
General & Bulk
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Presentation Agenda
• Traffic Forecast• Fleet Forecast• EPSA/EPV Plan• Alternative Plan• Capacity of Plans• Capability of Plans• Cost of Plans• Summary & Conclusions
Demand Scenarios
Comparison
Supply Options
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Capacity vs. ForecastYear Capacity -- Existing
PlanCapacity --
Alternative PlanForecast -- 6%
GrowthForecast -- 15%
Growth2010 2,425,000 2,425,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
2012 2,999,000 4,050,000 1,685,400 1,983,750
2014 5,649,000 4,380,000 1,893,715 2,623,509
2017 5,649,000 5,908,571 2,255,445 3,990,030
2010 2012 2014 2017 -
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Cap. Existing Plan
Cap. Alternative Plan
6% Growth
15% Growth
Ashar 2009
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Infrastructure Unit CostsConstruction Element Unit Cost per Unit ($, US)
Berths (Muelles) Linear Meter 121,000
Structural Steel Ton 2,200
Sheet Pile Placement Linear Meter 1,900
Excavation Cubic Meter 25
Dredging Cubic Meter 6.5
Hydraulic Fill Cubic Meter 9
Quarry Run or Select Fill Cubic Meter 25
Dewatering Hydraulic Fill Hectare 10,000
Dynamic Compaction Hectare 24,000
Finish Grading Hectare 12,500
Woodbury 2009
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Cost Comparison
PlanCapacity (TEUs) Infrastructure Cost Unit Cost
2012 2017 ($) Differ. ($/TEU) Differ.
EPSA/EPV Plan 2,999,000 5,649,000 412,979,944 100%
128.1 100%
Alternative Plan 4,050,000 5,908,571 326,893,709 79% 93.8 73%
EPSA/EPV -Alternative 1,051,000 259,571 86,086,236 21%
34.3 27%
Ashar 2009
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Summary & Conclusion• EPSA/EPV Plans – Small Terminals, Odd Shape, No Rail,
Difficult Land Access, No Support Facilities, Problems in Navigations, Difficulties in Serving Future Post-Panamax
• Alternative Plan – New Spacious Harbor, Large Terminals, Accommodates Traffic to 2035 and beyond
• Expansion of Present Terminals – Relatively Easy and Cost Effective, Retains Competition (Tariff Control)
• Savings -- Alternative Saves $86 million, or 27% of Infrastructural Cost
• Other Cargoes -- Outer Harbor has sufficient space for Non-Container Cargoes
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Gracias
ASAF ASHARNATIONAL PORTS & WATERWAYS INT., USA
www.asafashar.comApril 2012
“SOÑAR VALPARAÍSO”