The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Advice in an ageing society
David Sinclair, International Longevity
Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today
think tank evidence based policy focussed balanced independent respected experts networked international
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Who are we?
The ILC-UK was established
in 2000 to explore and
address the impact of our
ageing society on public
policy
We have a global reach with
14 Members of the ILC
Global Alliance.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Who do we work with?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Our focus is broad
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Ageing society
– More older people
– More of the oldest old
Advice challenges
– Small pots
– RDR
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Growth in the number of oldest old
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
How many centenarians are there?
There are currently 11,800 people in the UK who are currently at least 100 (DWP)
There are fewer than 100 people who are aged more than 110. (DWP)
In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England & Wales
Growth has been about 7% p/a http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5832685007/sizes/z/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Number of people currently alive who can expect to see their 100th birthday, by age in 2010
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life is not easy for the oldest old
Three quarters of the oldest old
suffer from limiting longstanding
illnesses, and one out of three
perceive themselves as being in
poor health. (Tomassini C, 2005)
“almost 50% of men and women
aged 80-84 report severe
limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/4170990903/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And many find it difficult to do day to day tasks
Sixty per-cent of over 90s report
difficulties shopping for groceries,
almost a quarter report difficulties
making telephone calls and 35%
report difficulties managing
money. (Sinclair, 2010/ELSA)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocolate/3039589789/sizes/
m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
A relatively high proportion live alone
Of those living in private households, four in ten very old men and seven out of ten very old women live alone. One out of five very old people live in communal establishments. (Tomassini C, 2005).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/5154169795/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Most centenarians consult their GP
98% of centenarians
and near
centenarians
consulted a GP and
received prescription
medicine during follow
up. (Roughead,
Kalisch et al, 2010)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Centenarians do use drugs heavily
A study of 602 centenarians in Italy found that a very high proportion of this age group were users of drugs.
5% no drugs. 13% one drug a day 16% took 2 drugs per day 65% took three drugs a day 5.5% more than 3 drugs a day.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some evidence of longer hospital stays
Centenarians who had suffered from a hip fracture between 2000 and 2007 compared to a randomly selected control group of 50 hip fracture patients aged between 75 and 85. “the mean stay in acute orthopaedic wards for centenarians was 20.7 days and for the control group was 14.9 days”.
The longer acute hospital stay in the centenarian cohort would amount to a mean extra cost of £ 2511 per patient. (Verma et al)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Depression
“23% of those aged 85 and over
had levels of depressive symptoms
indicative of clinical relevance”
“Almost 13% of men and women
aged 80 and over had high levels
of depressive symptoms in 2008-09
but not in 2002-03” (IFS, 2010)
ELSA
http://www.flickr.com/photos/junglearctic/3002442666/sizes/m/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Falls
60% of interviewees aged over 90 had had a fall and that of these, 4 in five were unable to get up after at least one fall and almost a third had lain on the ground for an hour or more.
Call alarms were widely available but not used.(Fleming and Brayne, 2008; Cambridge City over 75-Cohor. BMJ)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Poverty is a very real challenge
There is evidence that the
oldest old (aged 85 and over)
are, as a group, at greater
risk of poverty than younger
older people (aged 65-85)
Up to 10% of the oldest old
have total net wealth of
£3,000 or less.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dementia among centenarians
The prevalence of
dementia-free
survival past 100
years of age varied
between 0 and 50
percent.”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The oldest old remain the most excluded
Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels
As people age, they are more likely to become more socially excluded than less
Almost two-fifths (38%) of those aged 85 and older were excluded from two or more domains of exclusion in 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocolate/3039589789/sizes/
m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Quality of Life falls with age
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of
2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s
money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise
of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of
the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing
numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years
Projected health care spending as a proportion
of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money).
• EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP between 2010 and 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Increasingly living alone - isolation
50 per cent of the
1960s cohort will be
living alone at age 75
compared with 37 per
cent for the 1916-1920
cohort and 41 per cent
of the 1940s cohort
(Evandrou &
Falkingham, 2000).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many live independently
Substantial numbers of centenarians and nonagenarians continue to live independently in the community, either alone or with family members.
8% of those aged 90 and over were living in privately rented accommodation and 30% in socially rented accommodation. 2009 Understanding Society
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anabadili/2963913137/sizes/m/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between
2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity:
Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; more
difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in funding public
pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages,
or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save
adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; Price
inflation has been high.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society The number of people aged 50 plus
being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply
Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Britons ageing quicker than their parents
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.”
Dodge, 1962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some Opportunities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency is not inevitable
Dependency is not inevitable
and a ”considerable
proportion of the
centenarians maintain a good
level of auto sufficiency for
the basic performance of the
everyday life”. (Antonini et al,
2008)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some of the oldest old become more active
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Prevention of ill health
Physical Activity
Smoking and alcohol consumption
Nutrition
Immunisation
A move to prevention is vital
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Getting housing right
1. Extra care housing is a
home for life
2. Extra care translates
into fewer falls
3. Extra care is
associated with a lower
uptake of inpatient
hospital beds
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And how can we make new housing and communities aspirational?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We are working longer
Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.
The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Technology limited by imagination
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Fantastic developments in health
I think there’ll be a cure for cancer one day. That we never thought we’d see…and Alzheimer’s.
I would wish for a pill to cure everything…
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
From patient/recipient to health consumer
More confident consumers of health with raising expectations rather than patients
More tests available over the counter
Greater access to information about conditions
Expectations to health become more focused on “fix it”, prevent it, cure it?
Growth in health tourism
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Developments in genetics
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Artificial Intelligence entity
passes A level
Possible technology innovations to 20502010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Artificial Intelligence causes redundancies
Computer controlled hunger suppressant
Emotion control devices
Auto-pilot cars
Holographic TV
Full voice recognition PCs
Thought input mechanisms widespread
Viewers can choose film roles
Global voting on some issues
Tooth regeneration
Listing of individual DNA
Circuits made with bacteria
Bionic Olympics
Active skin makeup
Disposable phones
Digital mirrors
Face recognition doors
Smart bath
Individual pollution credits
Human memory
enhancement
Virtual holidays
Hydrogen fuel stations
Self drive cars
VR windows
Prison countries
Invisibility cloak
Self clean houses
Global ID card
Robocops
Human memory downloads
Nuclear fusion
Humanoid robots beat national football
team
Artificial brain
Brain downloads
Virtual displays
Wave energy =50% in UK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Google knows! Location Based Services
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
There is lots to worry about
But there are opportunities
What is the role for you?
Summary
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
David Sinclair
Head of Policy and Research
International Longevity Centre
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Our focus is broad
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Summary
Life expectancy continues to grow
Public policy trends
4 reasons to worry
Opportunities
6 final trends
The policy role for Independent Age?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life expectancy is increasing
In the UK, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7 years for men and 6.7 years for women between 2010 and 2060.
Within the EU, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7.9 years for men and 6.5 years for women between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And we might be underestimating
• The IMF warns that, based on past underestimations, it is possible that current global longevity projections could be underestimated.
• If longevity projections are being underestimated, this could add between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the annual costs of pensions in countries with advanced economies by 2050
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Public Policy on ageing over past 10 years
2003: Introduction of Pension Credit
2000s: Equalities Bill and Turner Commission
dominated
2000s: 2 ageing strategies under Labour and one
housing strategy
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
2010s: Social care funding and (since last year of
Labour Government)
Housing strategy not followed up – but greater
acceptance of importance of housing?
Growing recognition of real impact of dementia
Post election: NHS funding becoming more of
focus for reform
Post election: Government removed DRA
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year
between 2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10
years 1997-2006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity:
Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake;
more difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in
funding public pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in
wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more
difficult to save adequately for retirement; Falls in value
of pension pots; Price inflation has been high.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Increasing debates on the cost and contribution of
older people
Rights and responsibilities across the life-course
But public debate ill informed (my mum)
From older drivers to older workers, popular
perceptions of old age remain too negative
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Quality issues a real concern (and have been for years).
Reformed/merged regulators “Bonfire of the quangos” Huge challenges in CQC Terrible examples of abuse Media focus on poor quality Liverpool Care Pathway Is quality improving? Challenging the media?
But how can health/care be improved with no cash, more demand and limited incentvies to innovation.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Initial themes of current Government
Localism
Big Society
Open Government/Data transparency
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The devil is in the detail
Impact of RDR
Pensions regulations (pot follows member)
Equality regulations on goods and services/access
to health
Liverpool Care Pathway
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
4 reasons to worry– Oldest old– The cost of ageing– Isolation and exclusion– The squeezed middle aged
But opportunities– Prevention (Vaccination nutrition pa)– Housing– Working longer– Health developments and new technology
Why should we worry?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Growth in the number of oldest old
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
How many centenarians are there?
There are currently 11,800 people in the UK who are currently at least 100 (DWP)
There are fewer than 100 people who are aged more than 110. (DWP)
In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England & Wales
Growth 7% p/a
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life is not easy for the oldest old
Three quarters of the oldest old suffer from limiting longstanding illnesses, and one out of three perceive themselves as being in poor health.
“almost 50% of men and women aged 80-84 report severe limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010)
Sixty per-cent of over 90s report difficulties shopping for groceries, and 35% report difficulties managing money.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/
4170990903/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Health of the oldest old
A very high proportion of centenarians use drugs
Some evidence of longer hospital stays
23% of those aged 85 and over had levels of clinical depressive symptoms 60% of interviewees aged over 90 had had a fall and that of these, 4 in five were unable to get up after at least one fall
Dementia between 50% and 100% 98% of centenarians and near
centenarians consulted a GP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Poverty is a very real challenge
The oldest old (aged 85
and over) are, as a group,
at greater risk of poverty
than younger older people
(aged 65-85). Up to 10%
of the oldest old have total
net wealth of £3,000 or
less.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The oldest old remain the most excluded
Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
OAP recovering after getting trapped in bath for 5 days
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Trends in healthcare
As a result of a growing older
population, increasing longevity and a
greater coverage of public health care
within the EU the pressure on public
health care funding is likely to continue
growing. Public health spending in the
EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total
government spending, around 7.1% of
GDP.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of
2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s
money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise
of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of
the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing
numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years
Projected health care spending as a
proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money).
• EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP between 2010 and 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Pension costs
• UK spending on public pensions (state
pension, pensioner benefits and public
service pensions) is projected to rise
from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8%
of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62
(equivalent to a rise of £33bn in
today’s money). These assumptions
do not include consideration of the
impact of a single-tier pension.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Increasingly living alone - isolation
50 per cent of the
1960s cohort will be
living alone at age 75
compared with 37 per
cent for the 1916-1920
cohort and 41 per cent
of the 1940s cohort
(Evandrou &
Falkingham, 2000).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone.
http://www.flickr.com/
photos/anabadili/2963913137/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Cultural Activities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Local Amenities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public Transport
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from common consumer goods
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Access to banking
Almost ten per cent of older people do not have a current account
Among older people surveyed in 2002 and 2008, fifteen per cent of older people did not report having a current account at both points.
Six per cent of older people who reported a current account in 2002 no longer did so in 2008.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society The number of people aged 50
plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply
Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Britons ageing quicker than their parents
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Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.”
Dodge, 1962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
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Convenient myth of the elderly hedonist
The elderly have had a recent makeover, as appears in the 70-is-the-new-50 cliche….The impression is one of elderly hedonists – more people in their 60s are getting divorced and starting a new life; line-dancing, gymnastics and dating agencies, going from holiday to holiday; concessions, free passes and cheap tickets. The OAP of yesterday has been transformed into the swinger who refuses to acknowledge ageing.
In other words, the high-profile, fun-loving elderly consumer has become the contemporary emblem of old age. This is profoundly reassuring for the rest of us, and it conveniently dissimulates the image of those who live on into their ninth and 10th decade, consigned to the low-watt penumbra of the nursing home, or worse, the invisible "shut-ins", as they are sometimes called, those too timid to go out, who have lost confidence on the uneven pavements and dizzying shopping crowds; those afflicted by the mysterious paranoias of old age, trembling each time the doorbell rings and frightened of the unexpected telephone call; people whose days are marked by boredom and its twin, loneliness; the companionless meal, the ticking clock and the sound of the electricity meter in the stillness, while the winter dark presses against the windows by 4pm, the only company the school photograph of grandchildren with their cheeky smiles and lost milk teeth smiling against the blue background of a painted summer sky.
Jeremy Seabrook http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/12/elderly-care-michael-parkinson
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some Opportunities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency is not inevitable
Dependency is not
inevitable and a
”considerable proportion of
the centenarians maintain
a good level of auto
sufficiency for the basic
performance of the
everyday life”. (Antonini et
al, 2008)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some of the oldest old become more active
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Prevention of ill health
Physical Activity
Smoking and alcohol consumption
Nutrition
Immunisation
(NUDGE, COMPEL OR EDUCATE?)
A move to prevention is vital
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Getting housing right
1. Extra care housing is
a home for life
2. Extra care translates
into fewer falls
3. Extra care is
associated with a
lower uptake of
inpatient hospital
beds
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And how can we make new housing and communities aspirational?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060)
From around
four working-
age people to
around two
working-age
people for every
person aged 65
(UK)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We are working longer
Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.
The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Technology limited by imagination
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Fantastic developments in health
I think there’ll be a cure for cancer one day. That we never thought we’d see…and Alzheimer’s.
I would wish for a pill to cure everything…
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
A significant association between internet use and perceived control in one’s life
Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Strongly agree 551 (39.6%) 840 (60.4%) 1391
Moderately agree 1515 (51.6%) 1420 (48.4%) 2935
Slightly agree 1545 (59.4%) 1058 (40.6%) 2603
Slightly disagree 636 (68.2%) 296 (31.8%) 932
Moderately disagree
593 (77.3%) 174 (22.7%) 767
Strongly disagree 268 (71.8%) 105 (28.2%) 373
Chi-Sq= 422.074, df = 5, P=<0.000
Table 1. Feels what happens in life is often determined by factors beyond control
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A strong association between the measure of internet use and measures of loneliness
Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Hardly ever or never
3764 (60.2%) 2489 (39.8%) 6253
Some of the time 1091(51.3%) 1037 (48.7%) 2128
Often 272 (37.4%) 456 (62.6%) 728
Chi-Sq= 166.556, df = 2, P=<0.000Table 5. How often respondent feels lonely
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
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People who reported not using the internet were more likely to say that they ‘often’ felt isolated Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Hardly ever or never
3683 (59.5%) 2503 (40.5%) 6186
Some of the time 1242 (52.6%) 1118 (47.4%) 2360
Often 198 (37.4%) 331 (62.6%) 529
Chi-Sq= 115.871, df = 2, P=<0.000Table 6. How often respondent feels isolated from others
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We must recognise and maximise the contribution of age
• Labour market participation
at older ages is on the rise.• Carers of all ages contribute
the equivalent of £119 billion
every year in the UK. • Older consumers (aged 65
and over) spend on average,
around £100bn per year.• Older people volunteer.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
6 other trends to think about
Urbanisation: In the developing world the share of older persons residing in urban areas will rise from about 56 million in 1998 to over 908 million by 2050
The care workforce (role for older people?) Challenges of migration Climate change/environmental change Dementia Affluenza (Debt/Obesity) A growing culture of “othering” (fear of crime)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
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The policy role for Independent Age?
Housing; Care and advice; Isolation and exclusion
Look forward
Focus on the oldest old and most excluded OR
prevention value of early intervention
Challenge stereotypes and ageism
Explore diversity (men; migration)
Challenge existing thinking
Challenge older people (ask difficult questions)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy & Communications
International Longevity Centre
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The cost of our ageing society
European Commission 2012 Ageing Report
Office for Budget Responsibility: Fiscal Sustainability Report, July 2012.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060)
From around four working-age
people to around two working-
age people for every person
aged 65 (UK)
From more than six working-age
people for every person aged 65
and over to just over two
working-age people for every
person aged 65 and over
(Globally)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Relatively fewer ‘working age’ adults (EU)
The greater the old-age dependency ratio, the more pressure there is on state systems to fund pensions, benefits, and health and care costs for older people.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Children Working-age Age 65 and over
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The challenge in some places is more severe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80IE UK
NO
DK
BE
LU SE
FR
NL FI
CY
EU
15 AT
EU
27E
A17 CZ
EE
MT
ES
GR IT LT PT SI
HU
DE
BG
EU
12 SK PL
RO LV
2010 2010-2030 2030-2060
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Pension costs
• UK spending on public pensions (state pension,
pensioner benefits and public service pensions) is
projected to rise from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8%
of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62 (equivalent to
a rise of £33bn in today’s money). These
assumptions do not include consideration of the impact
of a single-tier pension. • EU spending on public pensions is projected to rise
from an annual cost of 11.3% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP
(2010 to 2060).• Globally: IMF project that global spending on pensions
could rise from an annual cost of 5.3% to 11.1% of
GDP between 2010 and 2050 in advanced economies.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
UK spending on pensions as a proportion of GDP to rise to 10.8% by 2062
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2016-17 2021-22 2031-32 2041-42 2051-52 2060-61 2061-62
State Pensions Pensioner Benefits Public Service Pensions
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
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Progress with pension reforms: spending
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16LV PL EE IT D
K PT FR SE EL BG UK
EU27 EA AT D
E CZ HU FI LT NL ES RO IE N
O SK MT BE SI CY LU
2009 AR 2012 AR
+1.5 p.p. (2012 AR)
+2,3 p.p. (2009 AR)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of
2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s
money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise
of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of
the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing
numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years
Projected health care spending as a
proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money).
• EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP between 2010 and 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending on long-term care
Projected spending on long-term care as a proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Cost of education flat
• In the UK: spending on education is projected to remain generally level between 2016/17 and 2061/62 at an annual cost of 4.5% of GDP. (NB Partly due to spending cuts in education announced in November 2011)
• In the EU: spending on education is projected to reduce from an annual cost of 4.6% to 4.5% of GDP between 2010 and 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Costs of unemployment up in UK
In the UK: spending on unemployment benefits is projected to rise from an annual cost of 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP between 2010 and 2060 (equivalent to a rise of around £5bn in today’s money).
• In the EU: spending on unemployment benefits is projected to reduce from an annual cost of 1.1% to 0.7% of GDP between 2010 and 2060. Partly due to European Commission expectation that there will be a decrease in the structural unemployment rate.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Looking forward
Changes in longevity, fertility and migration
Trends in health care and long-term care
Labour market participation rates and labour market exit ages
The economy and GDP growth
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Changes in longevity
Longevity is expected to continue increasing: Increasingly long lives impact the costs of pensions, health care and long-term care as individuals need to receive these benefits and services for longer.
Globally, life expectancy at birth is projected to increase by 13 years during this century from 68 years in 2005/10 to 81 years in 2095/2100.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life expectancy is increasing
In the UK, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7 years for men and 6.7 years for women between 2010 and 2060.
Within the EU, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7.9 years for men and 6.5 years for women between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And we might be underestimating
The projected costs of ageing will be higher if people live for longer than current longevity projections indicate.
• The IMF warns that, based on past underestimations, it is possible that current global longevity projections could be underestimated.
• If longevity projections are being underestimated, this could add between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the annual costs of pensions in countries with advanced economies by 2050
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Fertility rates are below replacement rate
• Fertility rates are increasing but are still lower than
a 100% replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman
per lifetime in the EU and the UK
• A reduction in fertility relative to the rest of the
population has implications for future proportions of
working-age people to older people.
• Global fertility rates are currently at 2.47 births per
woman.
• The UK has a fertility rate higher than the EU
average, at 1.94 in 2010, which is projected to fall
to 1.91 by 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between 2010 and
2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity: Employment and
productivity falling; falling tax intake; more difficult to meet debt
obligations; difficulties in funding public pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages, or
reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save adequately
for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; The value of a pension
annuity has decreased; Price inflation has been high, especially for
pensioners who spend the majority of their income on basic goods and
services (eg food and energy) which experience greater inflation.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Potential growth rates decline
Productivity (+1.5 %) becomes the dominant source of
growth
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
202
6
202
8
203
0
203
2
203
4
203
6
203
8
204
0
204
2
204
4
204
6
204
8
205
0
205
2
205
4
205
6
205
8
206
0
2009 AR 2012 AR
Potential GDP growth - EU27
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Trends in healthcare
As a result of a growing older
population, increasing longevity and a
greater coverage of public health care
within the EU the pressure on public
health care funding is likely to continue
growing. Public health spending in the
EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total
government spending, around 7.1% of
GDP.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We are working longer
Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.
The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Ageing or retirement problem ? Adult life spent in retirement EU27
2010 2060 2010 2060
54.5 66.7 38.6 60.3
21.6 21.6 23.6 23.6
62.5 64.3 61.7 63.8
18.9 22.7 22.7 26.0
31.7 34.7 37.4 39.3
2.0 1.3
Requested exit postponement in years(to keep % life spent in retirementconstant)
Men Women
Average entry age
Employment rate of older workers (55-64)
Average exit age
Life expectancy at the time of w ithdrawal
% of adult life spent in retirement
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Must address worklessness across lifecourse
• A low old-age dependency ratio does not necessarily mean
that the burden on working people is reduced unless many of
the people of working-age are actually in work
• Another way of measuring the degree of dependency in a country
is by looking at proportion of people who are not in work as a
proportion of the total population. (Labour Market Adjusted Ratios)
• In the UK 42.6% of the population were not in work in 2010. This
is expected to increase to 47.5% by 2050. Within the EU as a
whole, the proportion of the population out of work is expected to
grow from 47.7% in 2010 to 56.3% in 2050.26
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Can migration help mitigate the cost of ageing?
YES Migration affects population size and can
reduce dependency ratios (depending on age-structure of migrants)
The UK is expected to receive around 8.6m net migrants over the next 50 years
The EU is expected to receive around 60.7m net migrants over the next 50 years
BUT• The EU would require a far greater level of net
migration to maintain the current dependency ratio (an extra 11 million migrants by 2020).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What else do we need to do?
• Governments need to prepare for uncertainty• Governments need to ensure pension systems are
sustainable, allow for greater risk-sharing, and are less vulnerable to longevity risk
• Linking retirement ages to life expectancy can help protect pension system sustainability
• Across the world, people will need to continue to work longer
• Policies must focus on enabling active, healthy ageing rather than just tackling the costs of ageing
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What else do we need to do?
• Countries need to ensure there are safety nets for those who cannot work longer
• Governments across the world should consider how to create better conditions for health care innovation and development
• If governments were to introduce legislation restricting the inward flow of migration the dependency ratio could be increased beyond current projection levels
• Addressing the needs of ageing populations will require ongoing investment in research and data collection
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What else do we need to do?
• Efforts need to be put in to tackle unemployment amongst those of working age. People in particular groups such as women and people at risk of social exclusion are more likely to be unemployed.
• Governments might wish to look at ways of helping women with children to be able to remain in the workforce, through development of child-care programmes and work with employers to ensure fathers can contribute more to raising children and women are not penalised for taking career breaks.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We must recognise and maximise the contribution of age
• Labour market participation
at older ages is on the rise.• Carers of all ages contribute
the equivalent of £119 billion
every year in the UK) • Older consumers (aged 65
and over) spend on average,
around £100bn per year.• Older people volunteer
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We can tackle the challenges of the
cost of ageing
But is there the political and social
will?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Multiple issues, multiple solutionsDavid Sinclair, International Longevity Centre
– UK @sinclairda @ilcuk
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Summary
Dr Dylan Kneale Using data from English
Longitudinal Study of Ageing What is Social Exclusion and
why are older people at risk How has exclusion changed
2002-2008 Who is most likely to be
excluded Trends and key findings Recommendations
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
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What is social exclusion?
• Broadest sense Recognition of
material/non-material link
• No, Arguably apolitical with a rich academic
history
• UN, Europe…UK?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Social ExclusionDecent
Housing and Public
TransportCivic
Activities and Access to
information
Local Amenitie
s
Consumer goods
Cultural Activities
Social Relation
ships
Financial Products
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Why might older people be at risk from exclusion?/multiple exclusion
characteristics that are more likely to occur in later life, such as disability, low income and widowhood
cumulative disadvantage, where cohorts become more unequal over time
community characteristics which make older people more vulnerable e.g. population turnover, economic decline and crime
experience of age-based discrimination. (based on Philipson and Scharf, 2004)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/
5525684658/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Social Relationships
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Cultural Activities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Civic Activities/Access to Information
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Local Amenities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public Transport
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from common consumer goods
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion from financial products
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Access to banking
Almost ten per cent of older people do not have a current account
Among older people surveyed in 2002 and 2008, fifteen per cent of older people did not report having a current account at both points.
Six per cent of older people who reported a current account in 2002 no longer did so in 2008.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion grows for oldest old and ethnic minorities
Between 2002 and 2008, 9.3 per cent of people aged 80 plus became excluded from financial products compared to only 2.1 per cent of those aged 50-59.
Older people from ethnic minorities were more likely to be excluded from financial products.
In 2008, the odds of an older person from an ethnic minority being excluded from financial products were three times higher than the odds of a white older person.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/
4170990903/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So how has exclusion changed?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And what about multiple exclusion
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Exclusion isn’t inevitable by age
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What about those not excluded?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Who is most likely to be excluded?
Older men were significantly more likely to be excluded from social relationships while older women were more likely to be excluded from cultural activities.
Being non-white was associated with a higher risk of experiencing some form of exclusion compared to being white (59.8% compared to 47.3%).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/m/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Who is most likely to be excluded?
Wealthy older people are much less likely to be socially excluded than their poorer counterparts
Becoming a care giver between 2002 and 2008 was associated with a two fold increase in the odds of becoming excluded from two or more domains of social http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/
5154169795/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Other trends and key findings
Living together is good for us
The squeezed middle age
The oldest old remain the most excluded
Growing exclusion from housing/transport/ amenities
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone.
http://www.flickr.com/
photos/anabadili/2963913137/sizes/m/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society The number of people aged 50
plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply
Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
On the other hand – the oldest old remain the most excluded
Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels
As people age, they are more likely to become more socially excluded than less
Almost two-fifths (38%) of those aged 85 and older were excluded from two or more domains of exclusion in 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocolate/3039589789/sizes/m/
in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Growth in exclusion from housing/transport/amenities
Rates of exclusion from decent housing and public transport and exclusion from local amenities rose sharply between 2002 and 2008 among the population aged 50 and above as a whole – by over five per cent to approximately sixteen per cent.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5832685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So what needs to happen?
Allocate the task of measuring and developing strategies to overcome material and non-material disadvantage to a specific team within government.
Shift the focus of government policy on ageing towards prevention.
Develop a widowhood strategy.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So what needs to happen?
Better develop outreach provision to reach the hardest to reach before crises occur.
Improve planning of neighbourhoods for people of all ages to reduce levels of exclusion from local amenities and decent housing and public transport.
Provide additional support for carers and reduce gender inequalities in social exclusion through the expansion of existing intervention programmes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Contact
David Sinclair
Head of Policy and Research
International Longevity Centre – UK
Twitter.com/ilcuk
Twitter.com/sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Summary
About ILC-UK
The size of the market (and it’s growing)
What is an older consumer?
Is the consumer changing? Why does participation
decline with age?
Given all this, are older consumers ignored?
The issues
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We influence Government policy and debate
The ILC-UK was established in 2000 to explore and address the new longevity revolution and its impact on the life-course and society.
Think Tank Global (12 ILCs) Evidence Based High visibility around Westminster (e.g. 17events/1000 people in 2010) Engage at highest levels of Government Focussed on life-course
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Some of our publications
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
It’s a big market
Older people’s
spending reached
an estimated £97bn
in 2008 (over 65)
The over 50s spent
£276bn in 2008.
This represents 44%
of the total family
spending in the UK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
An ageing society means more older consumers
The 65+ age group now accounts for 20% of the UK consumer
population (16+), and is expected to rise so that in 2030 over
65s account for 25% of the consumer market. PRFC for ILC-
UK
The older market will grow by 81% from 2005 to 2030 while the
18-59 year old market will only increase by 7%. EU figures
quoted by Stewart
In the UK, the number of consumers over 60 years old could
increase by 40% over the next 30 years. Meneely, Burns and
Strugnell (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Distribution of net household financial wealth1:
by age of household head (2006/08)
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
0
20,000
40,000
60,000Mean Median
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And we might buy different things
Older people currently spend more than
other ages on: drugs and healthcare;
personal care; and coffee
They represent a significant market for new
cars and travel.
Clothing spend declines with age
But less on eating out, movies, theatres,
petrol and champagne
Certain industries will need to adapt to an
ageing society
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The beer industry is worried!
“German beer consumption
fell 2.1% in 2009 based on an
ageing population”
Bloomberg.com
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
But we know that ageing represents growth potential (BIS)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What makes a consumer an older consumer? Impact of biological and social ageing on consumption Loss in physical strength may make opening
jars/bottles more difficult
Older people losing mental capacity/dementia may find
difficulties with problem solving or processing
information. They may also find it difficult to shop
around or exercise choice
Those housebound can be excluded from the
physical marketplace
Ageing can make it more difficult to carry heavy
weights and can also result in reduced appetite
(Twofers!)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Difficulty with shopping, communicating and handling money
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
There are some very wealthy people not spending
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Yet people would like to participate more
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Are older consumers ignored?
“Just because I’m over 60 nobody wants to sell
me anything anymore”
Germaine Greer
“Advertisers and marketers are astonishingly
neglectful of older audiences even for products
primarily sold to older people”
Mike Waterson, Chair World Advertising
Research Centre
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Why don’t companies target older people?
Perception of a lack of buying
power
Stereotyping of older people as
“powerless, ugly, dowdy or
uninspiring” (alongside an
obsession with youth)
Lack of information about older
people’s sensitivity to marketing
Tynan and Drayton (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
But some companies are getting more interested
“Coca Cola moved into the wine, coffee, tea and
orange juice markets during the 1980s to capture
older consumer markets who were less interested in
their coke brands”
Simcock and Sudbury 2006
“Anheuser Busch, the largest US beer
maker, attempted to reach the 50 plus age group
and wound up creating one of it’s top selling brands”
Green 2004
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
6 Issues to consider
Older consumers as giver and recipient
Better representation of older people in advertising
Older people as users of technology (the role of
Inclusive design)
Engaging the active consumer (Shopping around)
A continuing need to tackle Age Discrimination
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The older consumer is a giver and recipient
Marketers note that older
consumers buy a relatively high
proportion of toys (25%?) and
confectionary
Grandparents spend £50,000 on
their first grandchild (Oct 2010)
Younger children/grandchildren
often buy for the older person
In other words, people aren’t
always buying for themselves.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Representation of older people in advertising
Older people, particularly women, are under-represented in advertising (NB Cognitive age effect) IPC/Simcock and Sudbury (2001)
Where older people are represented, evidence that it is for products such as “pain relievers, digestive aids, lacistives and denture forumlas” Freimuth and Jamison (1979)
There is limited evidence that older people are badly represented in advertising Simcock and Sudbury
We’ve started to see more examples of companies using older models (e.g. Dove)
Scant evidence and no consensus that using older models puts younger people off the product/service Simcock and Sudbury (2001)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Technology – an opportunity (and a challenge)
Around 820,000 older consumers (65+) in the UK made an internet
purchase PRFC Analysis for ILC-UK (EFS 2007)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Inclusive design
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Can you read the menu?
In many European cities one of the main groups eating in restaurants are those over 50, yet very few 50 year olds are able to read a menu by candlelight with out their reading glasses. That is because the menus are usually designed by younger people in print shops, not for senior citizens. What a crazy situation: the people who the restaurants want to market to cannot read any of their sales literature. Patrick Dixon (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Shopping Around
Mixed evidence but in terms of insurance;
utilities; communications technologies, there
is evidence that as we get older we are less
likely to shop around. WHY?
Older people are happy with the product?
Difficult to calculate the benefit of switching (telecoms/utilities)
There are few alternatives (e.g. upper age limits)
Switching is a hassle
Reduced information processing abilities (but does experience
compensate for age?)
But if marketers assume people don’t shop around they won’t target
them.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Direct and indirect age discrimination
“Interflora, Britain’s biggest flower
delivery business, has been
accused of ageism as their new
‘happy birthday’ balloon range only
goes up to 60 years old.”
Telegraph, September 2010
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Are older consumers changing?
“It is blindingly obvious that there is enormous difference between the seniors of yesteryear and people of the same age today.” Saga 2008
We have a wealthy cohort (on average) (and there are more of them)
Recent retirees “are more strongly defined by the impact of consumer society on their lives and expectations of post work life than previous generations”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
But is this a new phenomenon?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.”
Dodge, 1962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Let’s not assume older people are all the same
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The new image of the older consumer “ageless”. Let’s take age out of the equation?
Age Neutral approach argues that:
An Age Neutral approach should be taken to
marketing
Needs of older people are not that different
from other adults
The principals of marketing to all ages are the
same
Lifestyle or interest is going to be more
important than age
Dick Stroud
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Summary
The older consumer has money
They value good service
Lots of companies get it wrong
Age not best predictor of behaviour
There is money to be made by those who get it right.
But. Is there such a thing as “the older consumer”?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
David Sinclair - Head of Policy & Research,
International Longevity Centre (ILC-UK)
Twitter:
@sinclairda
@ILCUK