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Addressing HFC Consumption Under the Montreal Protocol
Dr. John E. ThompsonDeputy DirectorOffice of Environmental PolicyU.S. Department of State
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Scope of Presentation
• Rationale for Action
• Linkages between ODS and HFCs
• 2010 North American Amendment Proposal Overview
• Environmental Benefits
Projected HFC Growth:
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PNAS, 2009, Velders, et al U.S. EPA, 2009Historical & Projected HFC Consumption
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Co
ns
um
pti
on
(M
MT
CO
2eq
)
A5Non-A5World
HFC growth linked to ODS phaseout, expanding availability of air conditioning & refrigeration
Taking Action for Sound ODS Phaseout
• HFC Growth is direct result of ODS phaseout• Montreal Protocol experience and success on HFC-sectors
– Refrigeration– Air Conditioning– Foams – Aerosols– Solvents– Fire Suppression
• Montreal Protocol Heavily Involved in addressing HFCs– Phaseout of HCFCs currently being implemented– Multilateral Fund incentivizes transition to climate-friendly alternatives
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Many Substitutes Available and More on the Way
• “The ultimate choice of technology to phase-out HCFCs will be based on ozone depletion and also climate impact, health, safety, affordability and availability, as Decision XIX/6 requires”
May 2010 TEAP XXI/9 Task Force Report Assessment Of HCFCs and Environmentally Sound Alternatives
• 2010 TEAP Progress Report– Substitutes for many sectors and sub-sectors available– Additional substitutes under development– Global acceptance for alternatives strengthening
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2010 North American Proposal• Control HFC production and consumption• Control by-product emissions of HFC-23• Covers 20 HFCs, including 2 HFOs• Phasedown, not Phaseout of HFCs
– Baseline is combination of HCFC and HFC consumption (allows some growth)– Alternatives already available or in pipeline in some sectors (MVAC, domestic
refrigeration, foams)– Alternatives unavailable in a few sectors (MDIs)– Caps initiate in 2014 and 2017– Plateau 15% of Baseline, GWP-weighted (2033 and 2043)
• Ways to Achieve Phasedown– Transition out of HFCs– Smaller Charge Sizes– Move from High to Low GWP HFCs
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Trilateral Proposal Phasedown Schedule
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Years
Ca
p -
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ba
se
lin
e
Non-A5 Reduction Steps
A5 Reduction Steps
90% 90%
70% 70%
80%80%
50%50%
30%30%
15%15%
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2010 Trilateral Amendment Proposal
• HFC-23 Byproduct Control– From HCFC-22 Production– Significant HFC-23 Emissions Uncontrolled– By-product emissions subject to control
• Obligation eligible for Multilateral Fund assistance
– Additional benefits of 6,000 MtCO2eq by 2050• Technical and Financial Support – MLF
– Incremental cost model – has worked in these sectors– Bigger problem if we wait
• Complements but leaves unchanged UNFCCC obligations – Supports global efforts to reduce GHGs– Leave HFCs in UNFCCC basket – accounting and reporting
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Substantial Climate Benefits Possible
• Trilateral Proposal global cumulative benefits:– ~3,000 MtCO2eq* through 2020
• Developed country Parties = 3,000 MtCO2eq
• Developing country Parties = 150 MtCO2eq
– ~88,000 MtCO2eq through 2050• Developed country 5 Parties = 43,000 MtCO2eq
• Developing country Parties = 45,000 MtCO2eq
• EPA’s Analysis of HFC Production and Consumption Controls:www.epa.gov/ozone/downloads/Analysis_of_HFC_Production_and_Consumption_Controls.pdf
*MtCO2eq is the same as MMTCO2eq
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
North AmericanProposal (2014-
2050)
MicronesiaProposal (2013-
2050)
MontrealProtocol (1990-
2010)
AcceleratedHCFC Phaseout
(2010-2039)
Kyoto Protocol(2008-2012)
CopenhagenAccord (2012-
2020)
Annex IEmissions in
2007
consumptionreductions emission reductions emissions
North American Proposal Benefits M
MT
CO
2eq
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Final Thoughts
• Montreal Protocol appropriate vehicle– HFCs use tied to ODS phaseout– Successful global agreement– Effective financial mechanism– Sector expertise
• Known alternatives, technologies, and better handling can reduce HFC consumption
• Developed countries start transition• Significant near-term climate benefits
