UN ESCWA
A new approach for promoting RE in the Arab Region: The approach for Kuwait
The 5th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development – ESCWA/ANME Workshop Tunis, Tunisia November 4-7, 2014
Energy Efficiency Program Energy & Building Research Center (EBRC) Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR)
Saad Al Jandal, PhD.
Background
Energy System: Overview
Motivations for Adopting RE Systems in Kuwait
Simplified RES of the KISR Power and Water Model (KPW)
Electricity Generation Options in Kuwait
Optimum Generation Mix Inventory
Kuwait RE Current and Future Projects & Challenges for RE
Presentation Outline
A new approach for promoting RE in the Arab Region: The approach for Kuwait
3
Area: 17,818 km2
Population: 3.5 million distributed within 6% of total area. Population growth rate 5.9%.
Weather: Hot dry dusty summer, warm/cool with some rain in winter.
Economy: In 2012, nominal GDP $195 billion . About 95% of revenue comes from oil export.
Energy: Indigenous energy sources are oil and natural gas (mostly associated)
Country Background
Power Stations & Oil Refineries
(Oil & GAS) Explore & Prod.
Energy Resources
Energy Conversion End-Users Sectors
Electricity & LPG
Energy Users
Start
End Primary
Mainstream
Distribution
Kuwait & GCC Countries Energy Chain System
The Motivation
Today’s pattern and trends in overall demand and supply equations are not sustainable.
Make use of the inherent benefits of efficiency and alternative technologies, through the intergradations of clean strategies.
Meeting high demand for electricity (Adaption).
Reducing or preventing high emission rates (Mitigation).
Meeting high demand from new resource (Diversification).
The Expectation
A portfolio of special programs to achieve sustainable targets.
End-use efficiency.
Sizable share of renewable / alternative technologies.
Or a combination with each other.
Current Kuwait Energy Mix & Distributions
Can be a significant from the energy security point of view;
Slow the growth of energy demand and free valuable resources.
promoting clean economic development.
Reduce emissions.
Assuming that;
RE would reach its full potential in the next 20 to 50 years;
RE could free & replace fossil-fuel peak power generation up to 20% by 2030.
RE could curb energy-related global CO2 emissions concentrations by up to one third by 2050 (compared with a BAU case).
Potentials
The Prospects
1. A general assessment of the status on present & projected supply (oil & gas) resources, energy demand forecasts, (P&W capacities, fuel consumption) & identify the potential supporting measures driving this evolution.
2. A feasibility study of future RE technology options to forecast the trends of technology development, its characterizations & the economics of contribution in implementing these technologies.
3. An assessment, through a methodology, the impact of introducing RE on the potential financial gains & land-use, as part of the country’s energy supply mix.
The Objectives
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY and WATER
Aggregated Electricity and Water Demands covering• Industry• Commercial buildings• Government buildings and services• Residential buildings
(PRIMARY ENERGY) (FINAL ENERGY)
Domestic Crude oil Natural gas Heavy fuel oil Gas-oil Renewables
Imported Natural gas Nuclear
New Power and Desalination Plants Nuclear CCGT (Natural gas) RHSPP (Heavy fuel oil) + MSF + RO
Existing Power and Desalination Plants NRH SPP NRH SPP + MSF OCGT CCGT CCGT + MSF RHSPP + MSF
Renewable Energy Plants Solar Thermal PV central and distributed Solar cooling Wind Solar water desalination
Simplified RES of the KISR Power and Water Model (KPW)
Acronym Description
REF A policy scenario based on historical fossil fuel development until 2008; fossil fuel demand kept constant after 2008; used as reference simulation to which alternative fossil fuel scenarios following KPC “reference” assumptions are compared for their impact.
REF-RE10 A target scenario that assumes REF technologies within the portfolio of future power plants to identify the cost-effective penetration of RE options that ramps-up from zero share in 2013 to the cost-effective share in 2030. (Suffix: RE10 is for 10% contribution from RE technologies).
REF-RE20 A target scenario that assumes REF technologies within the portfolio of future power plants to identify the cost-effective penetration of RE options that ramps-up from zero share in 2013 to the cost-effective share in 2030. (Suffix: RE20 is for 20% contribution from RE technologies).
REF-ff A policy scenario based on REF; used as reference simulation to which a minimum fuel utilization constraint is placed on power plants as 60% for existing, 50% for new and 10% peaking. on are compared for their impact on the system. For existing and new plants the minimum constraint is relaxed to 20% with RE. (Suffix: ff is for flexible fossil operation).
Kuwait RE Scenario Development and Analysis (2010-2035)
MARKAL TIMES-VEDA KPW Model
Final Energy (Power & Water)
Demand Projections MEW, Low & Lower
Resource Costs KEC Price Projections
Fuel oil, Diesel & Natural gas price ratios
Resource Supply Base & Expansion
Cases
Electricity Profile Hourly Load Curves for
2008 & 2009
Model Horizon 2008 Base Year to 2050 with focus on 2010 - 2030
Future Power Sector Technologies
Renewables, Nuclear, CCGT & RHSPP
Existing Power Sector Plants Size, age, fuel type, efficiency,
O&M costs, fuel costs, availability, decommissioning date, etc. for power and desalination plants
Key Input Parameters
Technology LCOE ($/MWh)
2015 2030
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) 97 125
CCGT/Multi-Stage Flash 118 159
Reheat Steam Turbine 160 175
Solar CSP Trough 198 144
Solar CSP Trough + 6 hrs storage 293 217
Solar CSP Trough + 10 hrs storage 212 154
Solar PV Central 165 91
Solar PV Distributed 177 99
Wind 106 82
Viable options for Electricity Generation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Ref_ff Ref_RE_ff RE_20_ff Nuc_RE_20_ff
% R
en
ew
able
TWh
Wind
Solar Cooling
Solar PV
Solar Stirling
Solar Fresnel Hybrid Gas
Solar Fresnel w Storage
Solar Fresnel
Solar Trough Hybrid Gas
Solar Trough w Storage
Solar Trough
Solar Tower w Storage
Nuclear
OCGT
CCGT
CCGT/MSF
RSHPP
RHSPP/MSF
NRHSPP/MSF
% renewable
Different electricity generation mix obtained without a RE target, with RE target, without and with Nuclear.
To achieve the higher RE generation targets, the system requires more intermittent RE capacity.
For the 15% and 20% cases, only 5 nuclear units are installed by 2030 rather than 6 in the Base and 10% cases.
Source: KISR AE038C report (2011)
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Wat
er
(MIG
D)
Ele
ctri
c lo
ad (
GW
)
Year
Electricpeak load
Waterdemand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2025 2035
GW
Year
Liquied fuelbasedtechnology
Gas fuelbasedtechnology -
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2025 2035
GW
Year
Solar PV
Wind
Solar thermal
Liquied fuelbased technology
Gas fuelbased technology
Demand
Supply: Opt. Mix Case Supply: Reference Case
Optimum Mix Inventory for Electricity Generation
Issue Case
Reference Opt. Mix
Total installed capacity of Gas/liquid systems (GW) 27 23
Total installed capacity of RE systems (GW) 0 11
Gas & liquid systems contribution (TWh / per cent) 131 / 100 92.7 / 72
RE contribution (TWh / per cent) 0 35.9 / 28
Required oil equivalent fuel (million barrel) 170 131
CO2 emission (million ton) 70 55
Total discounted cost up to 2035 (billion US Dollar) 188 183
Main Results by 2035
Kuwait RE Current and Future Projects
Research and Development & Demonstration Programs at KISR
•RE R&D Demo Park (Wind, CSP, PV Cent. and Striling Dish) , 70 MW (part of 2000 MW by 2035)
•BIPV in new Administration / Centers Buildings, 1 MW • PV Car Parking Shades with grid connection, 0.5 MW • Thermal & PV Solar Simulators and Materials testing facilities, 15 labs at KISR (EBRC)
Government Sector
•BIPV & Rooftop in 100 school Buildings (MoEd.), 1 MW •BIPV & PV Car Shades with Grid connected twin Buildings (MEW & MPW), I MW each • Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) & Gas Power Station (MEW), 280 MW
Commercial Sector
•BIPV & Rooftop in new Buildings (KPI), 1 MW •Rooftop PV on Residential (500 Houses) and Super Markets. •BIPV & PV Car Shades with Grid connected Petrol Stations (KNPC), I MW • PV for Remote oil & Gas fields various installations (KOC), 30 MW • PV & Solar Thermal installations (Pan Arab & PAAET), up to 10 MW
Resource and Power System Integration
• Intermittency, Variability & Capacity credit • Transmission Availability & Access • Infrastructure & Building Requirements •Materials & Resources
Commercialization
• Technology Development, World’s Tech. / Manufacturing Forecasts • Policy and Regulatory Requirements, codes & regulations • Long-term Integration Targets, Government and investors •Government Funding loan , Subsidies, Tax-Credits & Feed-in Tariffs …etc. •Human Resources & Training
Challenges for Renewable Energy
Environmental Impact
•Renewable Energy Footprint Assessments, LCA • Land –Use, Size & Availability
It is possible that RETs can extend the life-line of the country’s oil and gas exports, and in some decades from now, they even have the potential to develop into a major resource of the economy.
CONCLUSIONS
It is important to Invest renewable energy and energy efficiency in order to reduce the impact of meeting the national demand and the escalating consumption patterns.
Energy created from RETs could gradually substitute Oil and NG as Kuwait’s major export item.
Government’s main role should be to set the target, with fixed amount of xkWh from renewable resources.
A country portfolio may be combined with Demand Side Management (DSM) options and elements of R,D&D activities in power generation projects, along with commitment to real commercialization and industrial use of large-scale RET applications.
And finally,
THE SHAGAYA PROJECT - KUWAIT
Renewable Energy Technology Mix - Master Plan for 2005 MW by 2018
Thank you