UN ESCWA

A new approach for promoting RE in the Arab Region: The approach for Kuwait

The 5th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development – ESCWA/ANME Workshop Tunis, Tunisia November 4-7, 2014

Energy Efficiency Program Energy & Building Research Center (EBRC) Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR)

Saad Al Jandal, PhD.

Background

Energy System: Overview

Motivations for Adopting RE Systems in Kuwait

Simplified RES of the KISR Power and Water Model (KPW)

Electricity Generation Options in Kuwait

Optimum Generation Mix Inventory

Kuwait RE Current and Future Projects & Challenges for RE

Presentation Outline

A new approach for promoting RE in the Arab Region: The approach for Kuwait

3

Area: 17,818 km2

Population: 3.5 million distributed within 6% of total area. Population growth rate 5.9%.

Weather: Hot dry dusty summer, warm/cool with some rain in winter.

Economy: In 2012, nominal GDP $195 billion . About 95% of revenue comes from oil export.

Energy: Indigenous energy sources are oil and natural gas (mostly associated)

Country Background

Power Stations & Oil Refineries

(Oil & GAS) Explore & Prod.

Energy Resources

Energy Conversion End-Users Sectors

Electricity & LPG

Energy Users

Start

End Primary

Mainstream

Distribution

Kuwait & GCC Countries Energy Chain System

The Motivation

Today’s pattern and trends in overall demand and supply equations are not sustainable.

Make use of the inherent benefits of efficiency and alternative technologies, through the intergradations of clean strategies.

Meeting high demand for electricity (Adaption).

Reducing or preventing high emission rates (Mitigation).

Meeting high demand from new resource (Diversification).

The Expectation

A portfolio of special programs to achieve sustainable targets.

End-use efficiency.

Sizable share of renewable / alternative technologies.

Or a combination with each other.

Current Kuwait Energy Mix & Distributions

Can be a significant from the energy security point of view;

Slow the growth of energy demand and free valuable resources.

promoting clean economic development.

Reduce emissions.

Assuming that;

RE would reach its full potential in the next 20 to 50 years;

RE could free & replace fossil-fuel peak power generation up to 20% by 2030.

RE could curb energy-related global CO2 emissions concentrations by up to one third by 2050 (compared with a BAU case).

Potentials

The Prospects

1. A general assessment of the status on present & projected supply (oil & gas) resources, energy demand forecasts, (P&W capacities, fuel consumption) & identify the potential supporting measures driving this evolution.

2. A feasibility study of future RE technology options to forecast the trends of technology development, its characterizations & the economics of contribution in implementing these technologies.

3. An assessment, through a methodology, the impact of introducing RE on the potential financial gains & land-use, as part of the country’s energy supply mix.

The Objectives

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES

PROJECTED DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY and WATER

Aggregated Electricity and Water Demands covering• Industry• Commercial buildings• Government buildings and services• Residential buildings

(PRIMARY ENERGY) (FINAL ENERGY)

Domestic Crude oil Natural gas Heavy fuel oil Gas-oil Renewables

Imported Natural gas Nuclear

New Power and Desalination Plants Nuclear CCGT (Natural gas) RHSPP (Heavy fuel oil) + MSF + RO

Existing Power and Desalination Plants NRH SPP NRH SPP + MSF OCGT CCGT CCGT + MSF RHSPP + MSF

Renewable Energy Plants Solar Thermal PV central and distributed Solar cooling Wind Solar water desalination

Simplified RES of the KISR Power and Water Model (KPW)

Acronym Description

REF A policy scenario based on historical fossil fuel development until 2008; fossil fuel demand kept constant after 2008; used as reference simulation to which alternative fossil fuel scenarios following KPC “reference” assumptions are compared for their impact.

REF-RE10 A target scenario that assumes REF technologies within the portfolio of future power plants to identify the cost-effective penetration of RE options that ramps-up from zero share in 2013 to the cost-effective share in 2030. (Suffix: RE10 is for 10% contribution from RE technologies).

REF-RE20 A target scenario that assumes REF technologies within the portfolio of future power plants to identify the cost-effective penetration of RE options that ramps-up from zero share in 2013 to the cost-effective share in 2030. (Suffix: RE20 is for 20% contribution from RE technologies).

REF-ff A policy scenario based on REF; used as reference simulation to which a minimum fuel utilization constraint is placed on power plants as 60% for existing, 50% for new and 10% peaking. on are compared for their impact on the system. For existing and new plants the minimum constraint is relaxed to 20% with RE. (Suffix: ff is for flexible fossil operation).

Kuwait RE Scenario Development and Analysis (2010-2035)

MARKAL TIMES-VEDA KPW Model

Final Energy (Power & Water)

Demand Projections MEW, Low & Lower

Resource Costs KEC Price Projections

Fuel oil, Diesel & Natural gas price ratios

Resource Supply Base & Expansion

Cases

Electricity Profile Hourly Load Curves for

2008 & 2009

Model Horizon 2008 Base Year to 2050 with focus on 2010 - 2030

Future Power Sector Technologies

Renewables, Nuclear, CCGT & RHSPP

Existing Power Sector Plants Size, age, fuel type, efficiency,

O&M costs, fuel costs, availability, decommissioning date, etc. for power and desalination plants

Key Input Parameters

Technology LCOE ($/MWh)

2015 2030

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) 97 125

CCGT/Multi-Stage Flash 118 159

Reheat Steam Turbine 160 175

Solar CSP Trough 198 144

Solar CSP Trough + 6 hrs storage 293 217

Solar CSP Trough + 10 hrs storage 212 154

Solar PV Central 165 91

Solar PV Distributed 177 99

Wind 106 82

Viable options for Electricity Generation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

Ref_ff Ref_RE_ff RE_20_ff Nuc_RE_20_ff

% R

en

ew

able

TWh

Wind

Solar Cooling

Solar PV

Solar Stirling

Solar Fresnel Hybrid Gas

Solar Fresnel w Storage

Solar Fresnel

Solar Trough Hybrid Gas

Solar Trough w Storage

Solar Trough

Solar Tower w Storage

Nuclear

OCGT

CCGT

CCGT/MSF

RSHPP

RHSPP/MSF

NRHSPP/MSF

% renewable

Different electricity generation mix obtained without a RE target, with RE target, without and with Nuclear.

To achieve the higher RE generation targets, the system requires more intermittent RE capacity.

For the 15% and 20% cases, only 5 nuclear units are installed by 2030 rather than 6 in the Base and 10% cases.

Source: KISR AE038C report (2011)

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Wat

er

(MIG

D)

Ele

ctri

c lo

ad (

GW

)

Year

Electricpeak load

Waterdemand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2025 2035

GW

Year

Liquied fuelbasedtechnology

Gas fuelbasedtechnology -

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2025 2035

GW

Year

Solar PV

Wind

Solar thermal

Liquied fuelbased technology

Gas fuelbased technology

Demand

Supply: Opt. Mix Case Supply: Reference Case

Optimum Mix Inventory for Electricity Generation

Issue Case

Reference Opt. Mix

Total installed capacity of Gas/liquid systems (GW) 27 23

Total installed capacity of RE systems (GW) 0 11

Gas & liquid systems contribution (TWh / per cent) 131 / 100 92.7 / 72

RE contribution (TWh / per cent) 0 35.9 / 28

Required oil equivalent fuel (million barrel) 170 131

CO2 emission (million ton) 70 55

Total discounted cost up to 2035 (billion US Dollar) 188 183

Main Results by 2035

Kuwait RE Current and Future Projects

Research and Development & Demonstration Programs at KISR

•RE R&D Demo Park (Wind, CSP, PV Cent. and Striling Dish) , 70 MW (part of 2000 MW by 2035)

•BIPV in new Administration / Centers Buildings, 1 MW • PV Car Parking Shades with grid connection, 0.5 MW • Thermal & PV Solar Simulators and Materials testing facilities, 15 labs at KISR (EBRC)

Government Sector

•BIPV & Rooftop in 100 school Buildings (MoEd.), 1 MW •BIPV & PV Car Shades with Grid connected twin Buildings (MEW & MPW), I MW each • Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) & Gas Power Station (MEW), 280 MW

Commercial Sector

•BIPV & Rooftop in new Buildings (KPI), 1 MW •Rooftop PV on Residential (500 Houses) and Super Markets. •BIPV & PV Car Shades with Grid connected Petrol Stations (KNPC), I MW • PV for Remote oil & Gas fields various installations (KOC), 30 MW • PV & Solar Thermal installations (Pan Arab & PAAET), up to 10 MW

Resource and Power System Integration

• Intermittency, Variability & Capacity credit • Transmission Availability & Access • Infrastructure & Building Requirements •Materials & Resources

Commercialization

• Technology Development, World’s Tech. / Manufacturing Forecasts • Policy and Regulatory Requirements, codes & regulations • Long-term Integration Targets, Government and investors •Government Funding loan , Subsidies, Tax-Credits & Feed-in Tariffs …etc. •Human Resources & Training

Challenges for Renewable Energy

Environmental Impact

•Renewable Energy Footprint Assessments, LCA • Land –Use, Size & Availability

It is possible that RETs can extend the life-line of the country’s oil and gas exports, and in some decades from now, they even have the potential to develop into a major resource of the economy.

CONCLUSIONS

It is important to Invest renewable energy and energy efficiency in order to reduce the impact of meeting the national demand and the escalating consumption patterns.

Energy created from RETs could gradually substitute Oil and NG as Kuwait’s major export item.

Government’s main role should be to set the target, with fixed amount of xkWh from renewable resources.

A country portfolio may be combined with Demand Side Management (DSM) options and elements of R,D&D activities in power generation projects, along with commitment to real commercialization and industrial use of large-scale RET applications.

And finally,

THE SHAGAYA PROJECT - KUWAIT

Renewable Energy Technology Mix - Master Plan for 2005 MW by 2018

Thank you