A case against mechanical skill mismatch hypothesis
Destinations of graduates from short vocational programs. Cohorts 2006-2010 (source: PES database)
Number of LM entrants
Found first job within 12 months
First job in elementary occupations
First job suits sectoral profile
Agriculture and food processing 1941 49% 35% 37%
Forestry and wood proc. 1109 54% 34% 57%
Textile and leather 1246 49% 35% 35%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metallurgy 8912 52% 32% 43%
Electrotechnics and IT 3934 51% 28% 32%
Construction and geodesy 1446 55% 30% 47%
Economics, trade and business administration
5479 51% 22% 59%
Tourism and hospitality 6466 56% 20% 73%
Transport and logistics 1453 50% 32% 44%
Personal, protective and other services 4906 49% 21% 37%
Total – short vocational programmes (mostly apprenticeship-based)
37345 52% 27% 49%
Vocational education sector and job entry dynamics:Pre-crisis and crisis cohorts (source: PES database)
20
30
40
50
60
70
Foun
d fir
st jo
b w
ithin
12
mon
ths
(%)
7/2006 -6/2007 7/2007 -6/2008 7/2008- 6/2009 7/2009 - 6/2010Date of entering unemployment register for the first time
Agriculture and food processing Forestry and wood processing
Geology, oil, chemical industry Textile and leather
Graphics and AV technology Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
Electrotechnics and IT Construction and geodesy
Economics, trade and business administration Tourism and hospitality
Transport and logistics Health
Personal, protective and other services
Unemployment rates of recent school leavers in Croatia 1996-2010Compulsory, upper secondary and tertiary education (Source: LFS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
All recent school leavers Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Dynamics of entry to first significant job: by achieved educationKaplan-Meier (survival) plot.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% k
oji j
oš n
isu
našl
i prv
i tra
jniji
pos
ao
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60mjeseci nakon izlaska iz obrazovanja
Manje od srednje školeZavršena srednja školaZavršen studij
Vocational education, structural transformation and social reproduction
Crowding out from above? Share of cohort completing tertiary education, 1997-2009
1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009.15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
21%
37%
About two thirds of higher (technical) vocational education graduates enrol to tertiary education immediately after matriculation.
Entrants to secondary education 1998-2008: rush away from short vocational education
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Technical vocational (4yr - 3AB) Industrial/craft vocational (3yr - 3C)Gymnasium (3A)
Education and social background: business as usual(parental education/occupation and achieved education)
Tertiary + professional/manager
Upper secondary + white collar
Vocational secondary + blue collar
Lower secondary + semiskilled/ unskilled
Lower secondary or less 1% 2% 3% 10%
Vocational secondary 5% 24% 47% 56%
Technical secondary 15% 28% 28% 21%
General secondary 7% 3% 2% 2%
Unfinished tertiary 23% 21% 8% 7%
Professional tertiary 6% 6% 5% 1%
Academic tertiary 43% 17% 8% 3%
Source: Survey on educational and employment careers of Croatian youth (N=2429). Predicted probabilities for groups, other covariates set at mean.