A case against mechanical skill mismatch hypothesis

Destinations of graduates from short vocational programs. Cohorts 2006-2010 (source: PES database)

Number of LM entrants

Found first job within 12 months

First job in elementary occupations

First job suits sectoral profile

Agriculture and food processing 1941 49% 35% 37%

Forestry and wood proc. 1109 54% 34% 57%

Textile and leather 1246 49% 35% 35%

Engineering, shipbuilding, metallurgy 8912 52% 32% 43%

Electrotechnics and IT 3934 51% 28% 32%

Construction and geodesy 1446 55% 30% 47%

Economics, trade and business administration

5479 51% 22% 59%

Tourism and hospitality 6466 56% 20% 73%

Transport and logistics 1453 50% 32% 44%

Personal, protective and other services 4906 49% 21% 37%

Total – short vocational programmes (mostly apprenticeship-based)

37345 52% 27% 49%

Vocational education sector and job entry dynamics:Pre-crisis and crisis cohorts (source: PES database)

20

30

40

50

60

70

Foun

d fir

st jo

b w

ithin

12

mon

ths

(%)

7/2006 -6/2007 7/2007 -6/2008 7/2008- 6/2009 7/2009 - 6/2010Date of entering unemployment register for the first time

Agriculture and food processing Forestry and wood processing

Geology, oil, chemical industry Textile and leather

Graphics and AV technology Engineering, shipbuilding, metal

Electrotechnics and IT Construction and geodesy

Economics, trade and business administration Tourism and hospitality

Transport and logistics Health

Personal, protective and other services

Unemployment rates of recent school leavers in Croatia 1996-2010Compulsory, upper secondary and tertiary education (Source: LFS)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All recent school leavers Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary

Dynamics of entry to first significant job: by achieved educationKaplan-Meier (survival) plot.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% k

oji j

oš n

isu

našl

i prv

i tra

jniji

pos

ao

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60mjeseci nakon izlaska iz obrazovanja

Manje od srednje školeZavršena srednja školaZavršen studij

Vocational education, structural transformation and social reproduction

Crowding out from above? Share of cohort completing tertiary education, 1997-2009

1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009.15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

21%

37%

About two thirds of higher (technical) vocational education graduates enrol to tertiary education immediately after matriculation.

Entrants to secondary education 1998-2008: rush away from short vocational education

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Technical vocational (4yr - 3AB) Industrial/craft vocational (3yr - 3C)Gymnasium (3A)

Education and social background: business as usual(parental education/occupation and achieved education)

Tertiary + professional/manager

Upper secondary + white collar

Vocational secondary + blue collar

Lower secondary + semiskilled/ unskilled

Lower secondary or less 1% 2% 3% 10%

Vocational secondary 5% 24% 47% 56%

Technical secondary 15% 28% 28% 21%

General secondary 7% 3% 2% 2%

Unfinished tertiary 23% 21% 8% 7%

Professional tertiary 6% 6% 5% 1%

Academic tertiary 43% 17% 8% 3%

Source: Survey on educational and employment careers of Croatian youth (N=2429). Predicted probabilities for groups, other covariates set at mean.