Download - 2020 Holiday Sales Forecast - ICSC
Holiday Intentions Survey 2020Despite the pandemic and economic downturn, we are forecasting an overall increase of 1.9% in holiday spending
+1.9% growth year-over-year
Expected Growth & Spend
Consumer Behaviors
$862.2B of total spending
73%Of all shoppers plan to spend more or about the same as in 2019
81% Will spend in a physical store 93%
Will embrace omnichannel and make purchases in a retailer’s physical store and their website
57%Plan to shop at discount department stores
43%Plan to make more purchases online due to COVID-19
$655 average spend on holiday-related items, which exceeds 2019 actual spend of $604 by 8%
ICSC Sales Forecast for Key Categories(Combined November and December)
Building Materials 7.5%
7.0%
4.4%
25%
$84.7 bil.
$143.8 bil.
$138.5 bil.
$190.3 bil.
Food & Beverage Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Books & Music
Electronic Shopping & Mail Order
2020 Holiday Season Intentions Overview
94%
Plan to buy from omni-channel retailers
Top Shopping VenuesSpending Intentions by Generation
Discount Department Stores
57%1
Traditional Department Stores
34%2
Electronics Stores
31%3
Millennials
49%
Gen X
42%
Baby Boomers
20%
73%Will Spend the Same or More
Percent of Holiday Shoppers
Percent of Adults
Plan to participate inholiday shopping
94%
Will spend more
Will spend more
Will spend more
Consumer Shopping Channels
81%Will spend in a physical store
66%Will spend will with Amazon
49%Will spend online and
ship to home
53%Will spend
online and pick-up in a physical
store
Shoppers Buy Online and Pick Up In-Store
Shoppers picked up in store
2016-2019 Average
40%
Shoppers intend to pick-up in store
53%
2020 Intention
Spending Intentions
Spend More Spend LessDeals/Discounts/Promotions 25% Uncertainty due to COVID-19 45%
Increased savings 25% Save money for essentials 38%
Inability to travel 25% Fewer gatherings to attend 37%
More people to buy for 22% Change in budget 34%
Planned Shopping Start
12% 21%
9%
23%
24%
22%Thanksgiving weekend –
Cyber Monday
11%
Nov. 1 – Nov. 25
Holiday Shopping Timing
51%48%
47%46% 32%
Avoid crowds
Product Availability
Promotions
On-time delivery Health/Safety
Reasons
77% of holiday shoppers plan to start earlier than normal
Consumer Behavior – Holiday Season
A surge in cases would negatively impact
holiday shopping plans
69%
More likely to visit stores with strict health protocols
66%
Promotions drive traffic to physical stores
49%
Shoppers will use click-and-collect more frequently this
holiday season
59%
74%
More patient and understanding of delivery delays
64%
Significantly scaled back plans this year
Plan to spend more with small businesses
due to COVID-19
54%
Discounts/Promotions result in additional
spending
65%
49%
Intend to be more charitable due to
pandemic
CO
NC
ERN
S
SHO
PPIN
G
GEN
ERAL
LY
PLAN
S
Coronavirus Consumer Survey
72%
Agree businesses should be open in
their state
72%
Will only shop in stores that have taken steps
to protect employees & customers
69%
Would support a lock down if cases in their
state surged
75%
Are concerned about a second major wave of
COVID-19 as fall approaches
53%
Dining indoors
52%
Shopping inside a mall
48%
Working out at a gym/ fitness center
30%
Believe the economy is better than it was 2
weeks ago
General Sentiment
Concern about COVID-19 still remains top of mind
In the next 2 weeks, people will do as much or more of the following
49%
Feel the economy will improve in the next 12 months
64%
Shopping inside a physical store for non-
essentials
66%
Feel prepared to handle a second major outbreak of COVID-19 in the fall
28%
Have no plans to cutback on spending, despite the pandemic