Download - 2012_Q3_Report
VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
THIRD
QUARTER
2012
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
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Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 4,758 5,391 6,740 7,212 8,096 9,849 9,593 8,545 8,018 8,384 7,892 6,573
2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,468
2011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,758
2012 5,067 5,765 7,174 7,651 9,013 9,636 8,535 8,864 6,932
The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the third quarter of 2012, compared to the same time frame last year. The third quarter of 2011 only marked 23,022 home sales while there were 24,331 home sales in the third quarter of 2012.
Looking closer, both July (+7% YOY) and August (+9% YOY) showed strong year-over-year gains in home sales -- while September 2012 showed a smaller year-over-year improvement (+0.2%). Looking ahead, we are likely to see a strong fourth quarter given low interest rates and comparatively low unemployment rates.
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
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Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012
0
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4,000
6,000
8,000
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12,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Num
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Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012
+7%YOY
+0.2%YOY
+9%YOY
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 3
26,156
22,849
16,541
27,733
20,798
18,558
17,105
24,902
22,995
19,091
18,006
26,300
24,331
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Num
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Quarter
Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
When viewed on a quarterly basis, the third quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with a 6% increase in home sales as compared to the third quarter of 2011. This is a significant increase in the pace of home sales in Virginia, and is likely a result of continued low interest rates, and low unemployment rates in the Commonwealth.
We are likely to see fewer home sales in the fourth quarter of 2012 as compared to the third quarter, as typically the October through December home sales market is not quite as robust as July through September.
+6%YOY
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 4
87,843
91,051 90,703
93,279
87,921
83,630 84,194
81,363
83,560 84,09384,994
86,39287,728
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Num
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Quarter
Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
When examining long term trends, it seems quite certain that we are finally seeing lasting improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for five quarters in a row.
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q3 figure (87,728 sales) includes home sales from 2011-Q4 through 2012-Q3. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.
While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.
Tax Credit Boost Post Tax-Credit Decline MARKET RECOVERY!
5 Successive
Quarters of Growth!
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 5
Region 2011-Q3 2012-Q3 Change
Central Valley 1,189 1,317 +10.8%
Central Virginia 3,472 3,725 +7.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,270 5,612 +6.5%
Northern Virginia 10,489 11,110 +5.9%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,778 1,879 +5.7%
Southside Virginia 429 376 -12.4%
Southwest Virginia 361 306 -15.2%
Central Valley+10.8%
Northern Virginia+5.9%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+5.7%
Southwest Virginia-15.2% Southside Virginia
-12.4%
Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
+6.5%
Central Virginia+7.3%
Regional Changes in Sales2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3 Units
The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lense of year-over-year changes in the pace of home sales. Neary the entire state is experiencing growth in the pace of home sales aside from Southwest Virginia and Southside Virginia. The highest rate of increase in home sales has taken place in the Central Valley (+10.8%) though Central Virginia (+7.3%) and Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay (+6.5%) are not too behind.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 6
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0
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0
$2
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0
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Med
ian
Sal
es P
rice
Quarter
Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
The median sales price in Virginia increased 5.5% over the past year to $248,900 for all residential sales. This is very close to a tie with 2012-Q2 and 2010-Q3 for the highest price in the past three years.
Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 5.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.
+5.5%
+5.5%
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 7
Region 2011-Q3 2012-Q3 Change
Central Valley $200,000 $199,450 -0.3%
Central Virginia $185,496 $188,000 +1.3%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $200,000 $209,000 +4.5%
Northern Virginia $350,000 $329,000 -6.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $153,750 $155,000 +0.8%
Southside Virginia $94,250 $80,000 -15.1%
Southwest Virginia $114,000 $111,500 -2.2%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+0.8%
Central Valley-0.3%
Northern Virginia-6.0%
Southwest Virginia-2.2% Southside Virginia
-15.1%
Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
+4.5%
Central Virginia+1.3%
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3
After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see increases in median sales prices in many regions of Virginia. When comparing the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2011, only Southside Virginia (-15%) and Northern Virginia (-6%) experienced a significant decline in median sales price. Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Road and Central Virginia led the pack in increases in median sales prices (+4.5%, +1.3%).
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 8
7,625
6,411
4,553
8,198
6,410
5,446
4,503
7,306
6,787
5,304
4,849
8,115
7,450
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Mill
ions
of
Dol
lars
of
Res
iden
tial
Sal
es
Quarter
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales VolumeSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2012 ($7.4B) marks an 9.8% increase from the third quarter of 2011 ($6.8B). This is only the third quarterly increase seen in recent years in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 9
8784
86
7982
91
104
94 93
100104
8482
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Ave
rage
Day
s O
n M
arke
t
Quarter
Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
The average time to market and sell a house has decreased 12% over the past year to an average of 82 days. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 10
2,885
6,464
5,661
3,664
2,203
2,418
627
305
64
40
2,987
6,528
5,241
3,218
1,904
2,133
650
241
66
26
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000
0 - $100K
$100K - $200K
$200K - $300K
$300K - $400K
$400K - $500K
$500K - $750K
$750K - $1M
$1M - $1.5M
$1.5M - $2M
$2M +
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Price
Ran
ge
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2011-Q3 2012-Q3
+54%
+3%
+27%
-4%
+13%
+16%
+14%
+8%
-3%
-1%
Home sales increased in most price ranges during the third quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the third quarter of 2011. Of note, the most affordable price range (under $100K) was one of the only price range to experience a significant decline in sales pace. This may be the result of overall increases in median sales prices which would be moving some under $100K properties up into the $100K - $200K price range.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 11
Region 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 Change
Central Valley 92 94 +2%
Central Virginia 408 412 +1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 551 521 -5%
Northern Virginia 974 818 -16%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 157 172 +10%
Southside Virginia 55 63 +14%
Southwest Virginia 32 30 -6%
All of Virginia 2,269 2,110 -7%
Central Valley+2%
Northern Virginia-16%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+10%
Southwest Virginia-6% Southside Virginia
+14%
Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
-5%
Central Virginia+1%
Regional Changes in Foreclosures2012-Q2 vs. 2012-Q3
Foreclosure rates in the Commonwealth of Virginia dropped 7% between 2012-Q2 and 2012-Q3. These declines in foreclosures did not affect all regions of the state equally, as Northern Virginia experienced a 16% decline but Southside Virginia experienced a 14% increase in foreclosures.Most regions of the state experienced a decline in foreclosures or a negligible change in the metric.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 12
8,1258,864
429,000477,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
2,000
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Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$240,000 $247,950
$171,200$187,400
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (August 2011 to August 2012), though home values increased more significantly in Virginia (+9% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+3%).
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. August 2012 home sales increased 11% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to August 2011, while Virginia experienced a 9% increase.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 13
Unemployment Rates By Stateseasonally adjusted, August 2012
(U.S. rate = 8.1 percent)
14.0% and over
12.0% to 13.9%
10.0% to 11.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
6 0% t 7 9%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
6.0% to 7.9%
4.0% to 5.9%
3.9% or below
6.9% 7.0%7.4%
7.0%6.5% 6.4% 6.3%
6.0%6.5%
6.1%5.6% 5.6%
5.9%
4%5%5%6%6%7%7%8%8%
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
While it has edged up slightly to 5.9%, Virginia’s unemployment rate is still at the third lowest level over the last three years, and Virginia is currently for 10th for low unemployment rates in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.
2012-Q2 unemployment rate based on preliminary May 2012 data.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 14
5.06%4.93% 4.97%
4.74%
4.35%
4.71%4.86%
4.51%
4.01% 3.95% 3.99%
3.66%
3.40%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
4.5% 4.4% 4.3%4.2%
3.8%4.1% 4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
3.0%3.2%
2.9%2.7%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
New records were created in 2012-Q3 with long-term mortgage interest rates steadily decreasing now down to 3.4% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and only 2.7% for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.
2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 15
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.
All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:
Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley:
Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Southside Virginia:
Southwest Virginia:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City
Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex
Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York
Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City
Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.