2012_q3_report

VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se

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Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.


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THIRD

QUARTER

2012

2012-Q3Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®

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January February March April May June July August September October November December

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Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 4,758 5,391 6,740 7,212 8,096 9,849 9,593 8,545 8,018 8,384 7,892 6,573

2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,468

2011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,758

2012 5,067 5,765 7,174 7,651 9,013 9,636 8,535 8,864 6,932

The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the third quarter of 2012, compared to the same time frame last year. The third quarter of 2011 only marked 23,022 home sales while there were 24,331 home sales in the third quarter of 2012.

Looking closer, both July (+7% YOY) and August (+9% YOY) showed strong year-over-year gains in home sales -- while September 2012 showed a smaller year-over-year improvement (+0.2%). Looking ahead, we are likely to see a strong fourth quarter given low interest rates and comparatively low unemployment rates.

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2009 2010 2011 2012

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2009 2010 2011 2012

+7%YOY

+0.2%YOY

+9%YOY



26,156

22,849

16,541

27,733

20,798

18,558

17,105

24,902

22,995

19,091

18,006

26,300

24,331

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

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Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

When viewed on a quarterly basis, the third quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with a 6% increase in home sales as compared to the third quarter of 2011. This is a significant increase in the pace of home sales in Virginia, and is likely a result of continued low interest rates, and low unemployment rates in the Commonwealth.

We are likely to see fewer home sales in the fourth quarter of 2012 as compared to the third quarter, as typically the October through December home sales market is not quite as robust as July through September.

+6%YOY



87,843

91,051 90,703

93,279

87,921

83,630 84,194

81,363

83,560 84,09384,994

86,39287,728

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

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Quarter

Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

When examining long term trends, it seems quite certain that we are finally seeing lasting improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for five quarters in a row.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q3 figure (87,728 sales) includes home sales from 2011-Q4 through 2012-Q3. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.

Tax Credit Boost Post Tax-Credit Decline MARKET RECOVERY!

5 Successive

Quarters of Growth!



Region 2011-Q3 2012-Q3 Change

Central Valley 1,189 1,317 +10.8%

Central Virginia 3,472 3,725 +7.3%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,270 5,612 +6.5%

Northern Virginia 10,489 11,110 +5.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,778 1,879 +5.7%

Southside Virginia 429 376 -12.4%

Southwest Virginia 361 306 -15.2%

Central Valley+10.8%

Northern Virginia+5.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+5.7%

Southwest Virginia-15.2% Southside Virginia

-12.4%

Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+6.5%

Central Virginia+7.3%

Regional Changes in Sales2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3 Units

The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lense of year-over-year changes in the pace of home sales. Neary the entire state is experiencing growth in the pace of home sales aside from Southwest Virginia and Southside Virginia. The highest rate of increase in home sales has taken place in the Central Valley (+10.8%) though Central Virginia (+7.3%) and Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay (+6.5%) are not too behind.



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2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

Med

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Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The median sales price in Virginia increased 5.5% over the past year to $248,900 for all residential sales. This is very close to a tie with 2012-Q2 and 2010-Q3 for the highest price in the past three years.

Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 5.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.

+5.5%

+5.5%




Central Valley $200,000 $199,450 -0.3%

Central Virginia $185,496 $188,000 +1.3%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $200,000 $209,000 +4.5%

Northern Virginia $350,000 $329,000 -6.0%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $153,750 $155,000 +0.8%

Southside Virginia $94,250 $80,000 -15.1%

Southwest Virginia $114,000 $111,500 -2.2%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+0.8%

Central Valley-0.3%

Northern Virginia-6.0%

Southwest Virginia-2.2% Southside Virginia

-15.1%


+4.5%

Central Virginia+1.3%

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2011-Q3 vs. 2012-Q3

After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see increases in median sales prices in many regions of Virginia. When comparing the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2011, only Southside Virginia (-15%) and Northern Virginia (-6%) experienced a significant decline in median sales price. Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Road and Central Virginia led the pack in increases in median sales prices (+4.5%, +1.3%).



7,625

6,411

4,553

8,198

6,410

5,446

4,503

7,306

6,787

5,304

4,849

8,115

7,450

2,000

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7,000

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9,000

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

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Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales VolumeSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2012 ($7.4B) marks an 9.8% increase from the third quarter of 2011 ($6.8B). This is only the third quarterly increase seen in recent years in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.



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91

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94 93

100104

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0

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2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

Ave

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Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The average time to market and sell a house has decreased 12% over the past year to an average of 82 days. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.



2,885

6,464

5,661

3,664

2,203

2,418

627

305

64

40

2,987

6,528

5,241

3,218

1,904

2,133

650

241

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26

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M - $2M

$2M +

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Price

Ran

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Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2011-Q3 2012-Q3

+54%

+3%

+27%

-4%

+13%

+16%

+14%

+8%

-3%

-1%

Home sales increased in most price ranges during the third quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the third quarter of 2011. Of note, the most affordable price range (under $100K) was one of the only price range to experience a significant decline in sales pace. This may be the result of overall increases in median sales prices which would be moving some under $100K properties up into the $100K - $200K price range.




Central Valley 92 94 +2%

Central Virginia 408 412 +1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 551 521 -5%

Northern Virginia 974 818 -16%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 157 172 +10%

Southside Virginia 55 63 +14%

Southwest Virginia 32 30 -6%

All of Virginia 2,269 2,110 -7%

Central Valley+2%

Northern Virginia-16%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+10%

Southwest Virginia-6% Southside Virginia

+14%


-5%

Central Virginia+1%

Regional Changes in Foreclosures2012-Q2 vs. 2012-Q3

Foreclosure rates in the Commonwealth of Virginia dropped 7% between 2012-Q2 and 2012-Q3. These declines in foreclosures did not affect all regions of the state equally, as Northern Virginia experienced a 16% decline but Southside Virginia experienced a 14% increase in foreclosures.Most regions of the state experienced a decline in foreclosures or a negligible change in the metric.



8,1258,864

429,000477,000

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Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$240,000 $247,950

$171,200$187,400

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$50,000

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$300,000

Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (August 2011 to August 2012), though home values increased more significantly in Virginia (+9% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+3%).

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. August 2012 home sales increased 11% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to August 2011, while Virginia experienced a 9% increase.



Unemployment Rates By Stateseasonally adjusted, August 2012

(U.S. rate = 8.1 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

6.9% 7.0%7.4%

7.0%6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

6.0%6.5%

6.1%5.6% 5.6%

5.9%

4%5%5%6%6%7%7%8%8%

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

While it has edged up slightly to 5.9%, Virginia’s unemployment rate is still at the third lowest level over the last three years, and Virginia is currently for 10th for low unemployment rates in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.

2012-Q2 unemployment rate based on preliminary May 2012 data.



5.06%4.93% 4.97%

4.74%

4.35%

4.71%4.86%

4.51%

4.01% 3.95% 3.99%

3.66%

3.40%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.4% 4.3%4.2%

3.8%4.1% 4.1%

3.7%

3.3%

3.0%3.2%

2.9%2.7%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

New records were created in 2012-Q3 with long-term mortgage interest rates steadily decreasing now down to 3.4% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and only 2.7% for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.



The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

2012_q3_report

Documents

virginia home sales

pace of home sales

pace of residential

condo salesmonthvirginia

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real estate professionals

low unemployment rates

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