Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion July 26-August 8, 2012
Williams and Associates Salem, Massachusetts
www.WilliamsPolls.com
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
Survey Specifications
• The International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted a national survey of adult Tunisians (18+ years) from July 26-August 8,
2012.
• Data was collected in the field by a Tunisian owned and operated marketing research firm, ELKA Consulting, under the
supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associates of Salem, Massachusetts.
• Interviewing was collected using the in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers using a multi-stage
stratification proportionate to population sample distribution.
• The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The left hand method
was used to select every third household in localities selected through an area probability sample.
• Stratification was based on three stages: a proportional division among Tunisia’s 24 governorates, proportional division of urban
and rural categories, and proportional division by gender and age group according to the most up-to-date data from Tunisia’s
National Statistics Institute collected in July 2009. The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national
representation by province.
• Each of Tunisia’s 24 governorates was divided into territorial sections or districts. In every territorial section at least one point of
survey was selected with the overall number of points determined by population density. In every point of survey, interviewers
were called to do no more than 10 interviews. Points of survey were distributed proportionally between rural and urban areas in
every governorate and in every geographical section of the governorate. Points of survey in a territorial section within a
governorate were selected randomly.
• A total of 1,265 interviews were completed yielding an overall margin of error of ± 2.81 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent
confidence level.
• The male-to-female ratio of respondents was 51 percent male to 49 percent female.
• The urban-to-rural ratio of respondents was 64 percent urban to 36 percent rural.
• The geographic and demographic distributions conform to the most recent generally accepted official statistics available.
• Stratification is based on population distribution according to the latest census.
• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research
methodologies.
• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
• This poll was conducted with support from the Middle East Partnership Initiative.
2
How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days, are
things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
79%
46%
37%
45%
62%
32% 30%
14%
46%
54%
44%
30%
61%
67%
7% 8% 9%
11%
8% 7% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Right direction
Wrong direction
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 3
4%
3%
2%
3%
1%
2%
25%
22%
24%
23%
20%
26%
46%
45%
37%
30%
37%
41%
20%
28%
34%
41%
40%
29%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mar-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
How would you describe the current economic situation in
Tunisia?
4
Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household’s financial situation to be better or worse?
8%
9%
6%
6%
7%
6%
27%
24%
29%
27%
30%
31%
31%
37%
31%
30%
21%
21%
18%
15%
18%
19%
21%
24%
18%
15%
14%
17%
21%
18%
1%
1%
1% 1%
0.2%
0.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mar-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
Has your household’s financial situation gotten better or worse
over the last year?
5
35%
28%
17%
15%
12%
12%
49%
43%
49%
47%
45%
44%
6%
12%
14%
16%
16%
18%
4%
4%
8%
10%
11%
12%
2%
3%
5%
7%
8%
8%
4%
11%
8%
6%
7%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mar-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/REF
Which answer best describes your current economic situation?
3%
22%
43%
32%
1%
5%
21%
43%
28%
3% 3%
19%
47%
27%
4% 2%
15%
49%
31%
3% 4%
20%
48%
28%
0.4% 3%
31%
44%
22%
0.4%
I am able to afford
things like new clothes
and eating out and also
support other
members of my family
who cannot.
I am able to afford
things like new clothes
and eating at
restaurants, but not
very often.
I have enough means
for survival, but I do
not have enough
money for extra things.
I have trouble feeding
myself and my family
and buying even the
most essential things
for survival.
DK/REF
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 6
On a scale from one to seven, where one is outstanding and seven is
terrible, how satisfied are you with the quality of your life?
3%
6%
20%
37%
19%
8%
6%
2%
5%
16%
36%
20%
12%
9%
3% 5%
20%
32%
18%
14%
9%
2%
7%
23%
29%
20%
10% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 7
Thinking about the current government, which of the following
should be a top priority? (spontaneous response, top responses only)
Issue First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total
Employment 52% 18% 11% 81%
Development and reform of the economy 15% 26% 10% 51%
Living standards 9% 21% 19% 49%
Transparent government communication 12% 10% 15% 37%
Social reforms 5% 10% 12% 27%
Regional development 1% 3% 5% 9%
Corruption 2% 2% 4% 8%
Achieve the goals of the revolution 2% 1% 4% 7%
Draft new constitution 1% 1% 2% 5%
Organize elections 1% 1% 2% 4%
Security 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 1% 3% 3% 7%
DK/REF 1% 3% 15% 19%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 8
Are you currently employed?
43%
57%
Yes
No
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 9
Are you seeking a job?
34%
66%
Entire Sample (n=1,265)
Yes
No
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 10
41% 59%
Among unemployed only
(n=719)
What kind of job are you looking for? (spontaneous response, top
responses only; n=414)
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
8%
9%
10%
10%
13%
22%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
DK/REF
Other
Accountant
Engineer
Agriculture sector
Military service
Driver
Business
Teacher
Health care
Private sector
Liberal profession
Computing
Plan to create a project
Services
Public sector
Laborer
Permanent employment
A job that complies to my academic background
Any job
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 11
Have you ever worked, or have you ever considered, working as a
self-employed person?
18%
6%
19%
53%
4%
I am self-employed
I was once self-employed, but not anymore
I have never been self-employed, but I have
considered it
I have never been self-employed, nor considered it
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 12
If you were once self-employed, why did you stop working as a
self-employed person? (spontaneous response, top responses only;
n=104)
14%
2%
3%
3%
12%
13%
18%
36%
DK/REF
Sickness
I found another job
My business did not work well
Because of the revolution
I'm working abroad
Bankruptcy
I did not succeed
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 13
What prevented you from working as a self-employed person?
(spontaneous response, top responses only; n=431)
18%
5%
1%
1%
2%
5%
6%
7%
8%
10%
37%
DK/REF
Other
I don't have the capabilities
Fear of failure
I'm a housewife/My husband
works
I'm a student
My business is hard
I'm not interested
Lack of opportunities
I don't have a project idea
Lack of finance
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 14
If you are seeking a job, do you expect help from the government
in finding a job? (n=435)
67%
32%
1%
Yes
No
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 15
What kind of help should the government provide? (spontaneous response,
top responses only; n=292)
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
4%
6%
6%
8%
22%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
DK/REF
Other
Attract foreign investment
Organize transparent recruitment
competitions
Help me financially
Any kind of help
Discuss with us
Improve my personal situation
Create projects
Give loans
Public sector hiring
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 16
What do you think is the best way to increase jobs in Tunisia?
10%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
12%
26%
37%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
DK/REF
Other
Reduce government regulation
Reduce corruption
Increase tourism
Improve security
End strikes and sit-ins
Finance new projects
Expand public sector
Improve education/Vocational training
Increase foreign direct investment
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 17
What do you believe is the primary role of the National Constituent
Assembly?
17%
1%
2%
3%
6%
8%
12%
51%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
DK/REF
Other
Organize elections
Oversee the government
Security
Social reform
Develop and reform the economy
Draft the new constitution
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 18
How long do you believe the National Constituent Assembly should
take to complete its mandate?
9%
13%
16%
35%
30%
29%
30%
29%
26%
12%
15%
18%
14%
12%
12%
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Less than one year One year Between one and two years Three years or more DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 19
In your opinion how closely associated is each of the following
with a strong economy?
82%
80%
74%
71%
62%
59%
43%
12%
14%
17%
14%
18%
22%
21%
3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
9%
12%
1%
1%
2%
7%
6%
4%
15%
2%
1%
2%
2%
10%
7%
9%
Low unemployment
Low poverty rate
High per-capita income
High standard of living
Low public debt
Affordable housing and commodities
Income equality
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Closely associated Somewhat associated Weakly associated Not associated at all DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 20
How often do you keep informed about the National Constituent
Assembly’s work?
13%
26%
19%
18%
22%
2%
Once a day Once a week Once a month Less than once a month Never DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 21
Regarding the constitution, how important is it to you that the
constitution be completed?
75%
11%
6% 4% 5%
Very important Important Not important Not important at all DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 22
Could you please explain why completing the new constitution is
important to you? (spontaneous response, top responses only)
17%
5%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
11%
10.9%
18%
24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
DK/REF
Other
To build the republic again
For the stability of the country
No results
They don't care about the citizens
To define the country's orientation
To enhance standards of living
General reforms
To establish laws
To manage the country's affairs
To enhance the country's situation
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 23
Should the new constitution be approved by a national referendum,
or by a vote within the National Constituent Assembly?
66% 69% 73%
28% 27% 18%
6% 4% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Popular referendum Assembly vote DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 24
What would you say are the most important problems facing
Tunisia as a whole? (spontaneous response, top responses only)
First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total
Unemployment 59% 16% 10% 85%
Economic and financial crisis 15% 35% 13% 63%
Strikes and sit-ins 5% 12% 13% 30%
Violence, delinquency and
vandalism 7% 11% 10% 28%
Corruption 3% 6% 13% 22%
Political circumstances 3% 3% 9% 15%
Large number of political parties 1% 3% 4% 8%
Terrorism 1% 2% 3% 6%
Libya 1% 1% 2% 4%
Security 1% 1% 1% 3%
Standard of living 0% 2% 1% 3%
Elections 0% 1% 1% 2%
Other 2% 4% 3% 16%
DK/REF 0% 5% 23% 28%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 25
How much do you trust each of the following to protect your
neighborhood?
83%
44% 40%
9%
16% 32%
2%
8%
10%
5%
23%
17%
1% 10%
0.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
National
army
Citizen
security
groups
National
police
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 26
Apr-2012
86%
48% 43%
7%
18% 27%
3%
8%
13%
3%
23%
16%
1% 4% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
National
army
Citizen
security
groups
National
police
Aug-2012
76%
53%
31%
14%
18%
28%
4%
10%
13%
5%
15% 25%
1% 4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
National
army
Citizen
security
groups
National
police
Sep-2011
84%
56%
43%
11%
16% 32%
2%
7% 9%
3%
16% 16%
4% 0.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
National
army
Citizen
security
groups
National
police
A great deal Fair amount Only a little Not at all DK/REF
Jan-2012
Now I am going to read a list of issues and for each one please tell
me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better, gotten
worse or stayed the same over the last year.
12%
12%
4%
3%
1%
4%
4%
8%
5%
21%
11%
35%
36%
9%
21%
19%
28%
26%
19%
8%
37%
32%
21%
14%
18%
26%
22%
24%
26%
31%
23%
15%
22%
15%
23%
32%
24%
27%
13%
13%
23%
35%
12%
12%
9%
13%
35%
17%
18%
10%
9%
17%
27%
9%
9%
8%
2%
1%
10%
14%
21%
23%
3%
2%
7%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Political reform
Security
Unemployment
Government corruption
Direct foreign investment
Legal reform
Constitutional reform
Healthcare
Living standards
Development of independent media
Development of independent civil society
Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 27
How likely is the current government to address these issues
facing Tunisia?
43%
27%
13%
35%
19%
16%
39%
32%
31%
48%
39%
37%
11%
20%
23%
10%
21%
24%
5%
17%
30%
4%
19%
21%
3%
3%
3%
4%
3%
2%
Mar-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 28
I would like to ask you about your impressions of the following
people. Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove
or disapprove of the following:
50%
23%
58%
57%
11% 26%
28%
17%
48%
21%
53%
32%
59%
18% 13% 16%
12% 8%
46%
9%
-43% -49%
-36%
-37%
-49%
-40%
-23%
-39% -41% -40%
-26%
-45%
-22%
-49%
-23% -21% -19%
-24%
-20% -19%
8%
-26%
22% 21%
-39%
-13%
5%
-22%
7%
-19%
26%
-14%
37%
-31%
-10% -5% -7%
-17%
27%
-10%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Bej
i K
aie
d S
eb
si
Neji
b C
heb
bi
Ham
mad
i Jeb
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Mo
nce
f M
arzo
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i
Ab
dess
ale
m J
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d
Maya J
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bi
Iyad
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en A
chou
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Ah
med
Ib
rah
im
Rach
id G
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ou
ch
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Kam
el M
orj
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Mu
stap
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en
Jaafa
r
Ham
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mam
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Rach
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ar
Hach
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Ham
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Hou
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bass
i
Yass
in B
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im
Ab
derr
aou
f A
yad
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Ab
u I
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Ali
Lara
yed
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Rid
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elh
aj
Approve Disapprove Difference
Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 29
For whom did you vote in the National Constituent Assembly
elections?
4%
9%
1%
35%
5%
1% 2% 2% 1%
2%
29%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 30
Looking back now, would you change how you voted in the
National Constituent Assembly elections? (n=908)
89%
68%
59%
6% 8% 9%
5%
20% 24%
1% 5%
8% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
I believe that I voted correctly It is too early to judge how I voted
I believe that I made the wrong choice DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 31
Why do you believe you made the wrong choice? (n=232)
17%
4%
7%
72%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
DK/REF
I filled the ballot incorrectly
The party I voted for did not win
I am not pleased with the party I voted for
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 32
Looking ahead to the next elections, do you intend to vote for the
same party, or a different party? (n=901)
39%
19%
27%
6%
9%
I intend to vote for the same party
I intend to vote for a different party
I have not yet decided who I will vote
for
I do not intend to vote
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 33
If you had to choose from the following political parties, for whom
would you vote in the next election?
41%
7%
0.2%
0.3%
1%
2%
3%
6%
6%
6%
27%
DK
Refused
Al-Masar Party
El Amen Party
Party of Progressive Conservatives
Jomhouri Party
Tunisian Workers Party
Congress for the Republic
Ettakatol
Nida Tunis
Ennahda Movement
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 34
Some political parties chose not to join the majority coalition in the
National Constituent Assembly. Do you approve or disapprove of
this choice, or do you have no opinion of the role of political
opposition?
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 35
21%
26%
11%
19%
7%
15%
Strongly approve Approve Disapprove Strongly disapprove No opinion DK/REF
When do you believe Tunisia’s next elections will occur?
24%
2%
15%
34%
27%
DK/REF
Other
Before March 20, 2013
March 20, 2013
After March 20, 2013
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 36
In your opinion, what kind of elections will these be?
51%
56%
59%
26%
23%
16%
9% 9%
2% 0% 0%
15% 13% 12%
8%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Presidential Legislative/Parliamentary Local/Municipal General/All levels DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 37
If you could pick, which type of government would you prefer in
Tunisia?
14%
25%
19%
42%
7%
24%
16%
53%
8%
52%
19% 21%
DK/REF Presidential system Parliamentary system A mixed government
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 38
If you had a choice between a stable and prosperous Tunisia that was
ruled by a non-democratic government, or a democratic government
that led to an unstable and insecure Tunisia, which would you choose?
34%
26%
38% 41%
48%
70%
55% 52%
18%
4%
7% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Non-democratic government Democratic government DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 39
Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?
Source First Mention Second
Mention Third Mention Total
Tunisian television 61% 24% 6% 91%
Radio 9% 33% 16% 57%
Newspaper 4% 11% 18% 33%
Gatherings at public places 6% 12% 14% 32%
Internet 18% 7% 4% 29%
SMS 0% 1% 0% 1%
Mosque 0% 0% 1% 1%
Other 1% 2% 4% 7%
DK/REF 1% 11% 37% 49%
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Do you have access to the Internet? If yes, where do you usually
access it?
57%
27%
3% 2%
12%
0.2%
43%
Yes - Work
Yes - Home
Yes – Mobile
phone
Yes - Other
Yes – School
n=543
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No
Do you know what the difference is between a secular and a non-
secular government?
23%
32% 35% 36% 35%
77%
68% 65% 64% 65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Yes No
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 42
As you may already know, in a secular government, the government’s decisions
on public policy and laws are made without any consideration to religion; some
people refer to this as the separation of religion and state. It does not mean that
the government is atheist just that no specific religious idea is promoted when
making laws. Considering this definition of secularism, in general would you
approve or disapprove of the government of Tunisia being secular?
42% 32%
47% 50%
46%
41%
44%
43%
11%
28%
8% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12
Approve secular government Disapprove secular government DK/REF
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Would you prefer to see more political parties or entities that are
Islamist or secular in the National Constituent Assembly?
8%
9%
11%
6%
9%
51%
55%
68%
60%
55%
33%
26%
18%
27%
26%
3%
3%
2%
3%
6%
6%
8%
2%
4%
4%
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly Islamist Moderately Islamist Moderately secular Strongly secular DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 44
In your opinion, has security in Tunisia improved since the elections?
What about the security of your neighborhood or community?
72%
68%
27%
31%
1%
1%
My
neighborhood/Community
Tunisia
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes No DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 45
In your opinion, what role should civil society organizations play in
Tunisia?
14%
33%
4% 5%
8%
14%
1%
1%
21%
Represent citizens to
government
Provide social services
Research public policies
Perform community service
Educate the public on
citizenship
Protect human rights
No role
Other
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 46