2012 october 3 survey of tunisian public opinion, july 26 august 8, 2012

Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion July 26-August 8, 2012

Williams and Associates Salem, Massachusetts

www.WilliamsPolls.com

http://www.williamspolls.com/

Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com

Survey Specifications

• The International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted a national survey of adult Tunisians (18+ years) from July 26-August 8,

2012.

• Data was collected in the field by a Tunisian owned and operated marketing research firm, ELKA Consulting, under the

supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associates of Salem, Massachusetts.

• Interviewing was collected using the in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers using a multi-stage

stratification proportionate to population sample distribution.

• The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The left hand method

was used to select every third household in localities selected through an area probability sample.

• Stratification was based on three stages: a proportional division among Tunisia’s 24 governorates, proportional division of urban

and rural categories, and proportional division by gender and age group according to the most up-to-date data from Tunisia’s

National Statistics Institute collected in July 2009. The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national

representation by province.

• Each of Tunisia’s 24 governorates was divided into territorial sections or districts. In every territorial section at least one point of

survey was selected with the overall number of points determined by population density. In every point of survey, interviewers

were called to do no more than 10 interviews. Points of survey were distributed proportionally between rural and urban areas in

every governorate and in every geographical section of the governorate. Points of survey in a territorial section within a

governorate were selected randomly.

• A total of 1,265 interviews were completed yielding an overall margin of error of ± 2.81 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent

confidence level.

• The male-to-female ratio of respondents was 51 percent male to 49 percent female.

• The urban-to-rural ratio of respondents was 64 percent urban to 36 percent rural.

• The geographic and demographic distributions conform to the most recent generally accepted official statistics available.

• Stratification is based on population distribution according to the latest census.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research

methodologies.

• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

• This poll was conducted with support from the Middle East Partnership Initiative.

2

http://mepi.state.gov/

How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days, are

things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

79%

46%

37%

45%

62%

32% 30%

14%

46%

54%

44%

30%

61%

67%

7% 8% 9%

11%

8% 7% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12

Right direction

Wrong direction

DK/REF

Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 3

4%

3%

2%

3%

1%

2%

25%

22%

24%

23%

20%

26%

46%

45%

37%

30%

37%

41%

20%

28%

34%

41%

40%

29%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad DK/REF


How would you describe the current economic situation in

Tunisia?

4

Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household’s financial situation to be better or worse?

8%

9%

6%

6%

7%

6%

27%

24%

29%

27%

30%

31%

31%

37%

31%

30%

21%

21%

18%

15%

18%

19%

21%

24%

18%

15%

14%

17%

21%

18%

1%

1%

1% 1%

0.2%

0.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/REF


Has your household’s financial situation gotten better or worse

over the last year?

5

35%

28%

17%

15%

12%

12%

49%

43%

49%

47%

45%

44%

6%

12%

14%

16%

16%

18%

4%

4%

8%

10%

11%

12%

2%

3%

5%

7%

8%

8%

4%

11%

8%

6%

7%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12


Which answer best describes your current economic situation?

3%

22%

43%

32%

1%

5%

21%

43%

28%

3% 3%

19%

47%

27%

4% 2%

15%

49%

31%

3% 4%

20%

48%

28%

0.4% 3%

31%

44%

22%

0.4%

I am able to afford

things like new clothes

and eating out and also

support other

members of my family

who cannot.

I am able to afford

things like new clothes

and eating at

restaurants, but not

very often.

I have enough means

for survival, but I do

not have enough

money for extra things.

I have trouble feeding

myself and my family

and buying even the

most essential things

for survival.

DK/REF

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12


On a scale from one to seven, where one is outstanding and seven is

terrible, how satisfied are you with the quality of your life?

3%

6%

20%

37%

19%

8%

6%

2%

5%

16%

36%

20%

12%

9%

3% 5%

20%

32%

18%

14%

9%

2%

7%

23%

29%

20%

10% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12


Thinking about the current government, which of the following

should be a top priority? (spontaneous response, top responses only)

Issue First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total

Employment 52% 18% 11% 81%

Development and reform of the economy 15% 26% 10% 51%

Living standards 9% 21% 19% 49%

Transparent government communication 12% 10% 15% 37%

Social reforms 5% 10% 12% 27%

Regional development 1% 3% 5% 9%

Corruption 2% 2% 4% 8%

Achieve the goals of the revolution 2% 1% 4% 7%

Draft new constitution 1% 1% 2% 5%

Organize elections 1% 1% 2% 4%

Security 0% 0% 0% 0%

Other 1% 3% 3% 7%

DK/REF 1% 3% 15% 19%


Are you currently employed?

43%

57%

Yes

No


Are you seeking a job?

34%

66%

Entire Sample (n=1,265)

Yes

No


41% 59%

Among unemployed only

(n=719)

What kind of job are you looking for? (spontaneous response, top

responses only; n=414)

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

8%

9%

10%

10%

13%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

DK/REF

Other

Accountant

Engineer

Agriculture sector

Military service

Driver

Business

Teacher

Health care

Private sector

Liberal profession

Computing

Plan to create a project

Services

Public sector

Laborer

Permanent employment

A job that complies to my academic background

Any job


Have you ever worked, or have you ever considered, working as a

self-employed person?

18%

6%

19%

53%

4%

I am self-employed

I was once self-employed, but not anymore

I have never been self-employed, but I have

considered it

I have never been self-employed, nor considered it

DK/REF


If you were once self-employed, why did you stop working as a

self-employed person? (spontaneous response, top responses only;

n=104)

14%

2%

3%

3%

12%

13%

18%

36%

DK/REF

Sickness

I found another job

My business did not work well

Because of the revolution

I'm working abroad

Bankruptcy

I did not succeed

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


What prevented you from working as a self-employed person?

(spontaneous response, top responses only; n=431)

18%

5%

1%

1%

2%

5%

6%

7%

8%

10%

37%

DK/REF

Other

I don't have the capabilities

Fear of failure

I'm a housewife/My husband

works

I'm a student

My business is hard

I'm not interested

Lack of opportunities

I don't have a project idea

Lack of finance

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


If you are seeking a job, do you expect help from the government

in finding a job? (n=435)

67%

32%

1%

Yes

No

DK/REF


What kind of help should the government provide? (spontaneous response,

top responses only; n=292)

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

4%

6%

6%

8%

22%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

DK/REF

Other

Attract foreign investment

Organize transparent recruitment

competitions

Help me financially

Any kind of help

Discuss with us

Improve my personal situation

Create projects

Give loans

Public sector hiring


What do you think is the best way to increase jobs in Tunisia?

10%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

12%

26%

37%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

DK/REF

Other

Reduce government regulation

Reduce corruption

Increase tourism

Improve security

End strikes and sit-ins

Finance new projects

Expand public sector

Improve education/Vocational training

Increase foreign direct investment


What do you believe is the primary role of the National Constituent

Assembly?

17%

1%

2%

3%

6%

8%

12%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

DK/REF

Other

Organize elections

Oversee the government

Security

Social reform

Develop and reform the economy

Draft the new constitution


How long do you believe the National Constituent Assembly should

take to complete its mandate?

9%

13%

16%

35%

30%

29%

30%

29%

26%

12%

15%

18%

14%

12%

12%

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Less than one year One year Between one and two years Three years or more DK/REF


In your opinion how closely associated is each of the following

with a strong economy?

82%

80%

74%

71%

62%

59%

43%

12%

14%

17%

14%

18%

22%

21%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

9%

12%

1%

1%

2%

7%

6%

4%

15%

2%

1%

2%

2%

10%

7%

9%

Low unemployment

Low poverty rate

High per-capita income

High standard of living

Low public debt

Affordable housing and commodities

Income equality

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Closely associated Somewhat associated Weakly associated Not associated at all DK/REF


How often do you keep informed about the National Constituent

Assembly’s work?

13%

26%

19%

18%

22%

2%

Once a day Once a week Once a month Less than once a month Never DK/REF


Regarding the constitution, how important is it to you that the

constitution be completed?

75%

11%

6% 4% 5%

Very important Important Not important Not important at all DK/REF


Could you please explain why completing the new constitution is

important to you? (spontaneous response, top responses only)

17%

5%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

11%

10.9%

18%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

DK/REF

Other

To build the republic again

For the stability of the country

No results

They don't care about the citizens

To define the country's orientation

To enhance standards of living

General reforms

To establish laws

To manage the country's affairs

To enhance the country's situation


Should the new constitution be approved by a national referendum,

or by a vote within the National Constituent Assembly?

66% 69% 73%

28% 27% 18%

6% 4% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12

Popular referendum Assembly vote DK/REF


What would you say are the most important problems facing

Tunisia as a whole? (spontaneous response, top responses only)

First Mention Second Mention Third Mention Total

Unemployment 59% 16% 10% 85%

Economic and financial crisis 15% 35% 13% 63%

Strikes and sit-ins 5% 12% 13% 30%

Violence, delinquency and

vandalism 7% 11% 10% 28%

Corruption 3% 6% 13% 22%

Political circumstances 3% 3% 9% 15%

Large number of political parties 1% 3% 4% 8%

Terrorism 1% 2% 3% 6%

Libya 1% 1% 2% 4%

Security 1% 1% 1% 3%

Standard of living 0% 2% 1% 3%

Elections 0% 1% 1% 2%

Other 2% 4% 3% 16%

DK/REF 0% 5% 23% 28%


How much do you trust each of the following to protect your

neighborhood?

83%

44% 40%

9%

16% 32%

2%

8%

10%

5%

23%

17%

1% 10%

0.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

National

army

Citizen

security

groups

National

police


Apr-2012

86%

48% 43%

7%

18% 27%

3%

8%

13%

3%

23%

16%

1% 4% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

National

army

Citizen

security

groups

National

police

Aug-2012

76%

53%

31%

14%

18%

28%

4%

10%

13%

5%

15% 25%

1% 4% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

National

army

Citizen

security

groups

National

police

Sep-2011

84%

56%

43%

11%

16% 32%

2%

7% 9%

3%

16% 16%

4% 0.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

National

army

Citizen

security

groups

National

police

A great deal Fair amount Only a little Not at all DK/REF

Jan-2012

Now I am going to read a list of issues and for each one please tell

me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better, gotten

worse or stayed the same over the last year.

12%

12%

4%

3%

1%

4%

4%

8%

5%

21%

11%

35%

36%

9%

21%

19%

28%

26%

19%

8%

37%

32%

21%

14%

18%

26%

22%

24%

26%

31%

23%

15%

22%

15%

23%

32%

24%

27%

13%

13%

23%

35%

12%

12%

9%

13%

35%

17%

18%

10%

9%

17%

27%

9%

9%

8%

2%

1%

10%

14%

21%

23%

3%

2%

7%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Political reform

Security

Unemployment

Government corruption

Direct foreign investment

Legal reform

Constitutional reform

Healthcare

Living standards

Development of independent media

Development of independent civil society



How likely is the current government to address these issues

facing Tunisia?

43%

27%

13%

35%

19%

16%

39%

32%

31%

48%

39%

37%

11%

20%

23%

10%

21%

24%

5%

17%

30%

4%

19%

21%

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

2%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all DK/REF


I would like to ask you about your impressions of the following

people. Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove

or disapprove of the following:

50%

23%

58%

57%

11% 26%

28%

17%

48%

21%

53%

32%

59%

18% 13% 16%

12% 8%

46%

9%

-43% -49%

-36%

-37%

-49%

-40%

-23%

-39% -41% -40%

-26%

-45%

-22%

-49%

-23% -21% -19%

-24%

-20% -19%

8%

-26%

22% 21%

-39%

-13%

5%

-22%

7%

-19%

26%

-14%

37%

-31%

-10% -5% -7%

-17%

27%

-10%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Bej

i K

aie

d S

eb

si

Neji

b C

heb

bi

Ham

mad

i Jeb

ali

Mo

nce

f M

arzo

uk

i

Ab

dess

ale

m J

era

d

Maya J

eri

bi

Iyad

h B

en A

chou

r

Ah

med

Ib

rah

im

Rach

id G

han

ou

ch

i

Kam

el M

orj

an

e

Mu

stap

ha B

en

Jaafa

r

Ham

ma H

am

mam

i

Rach

id A

mm

ar

Hach

mi

Ham

di

Hou

cin

e A

bass

i

Yass

in B

rah

im

Ab

derr

aou

f A

yad

i

Ab

u I

yad

h

Ali

Lara

yed

h

Rid

ha B

elh

aj

Approve Disapprove Difference

Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 29

For whom did you vote in the National Constituent Assembly

elections?

4%

9%

1%

35%

5%

1% 2% 2% 1%

2%

29%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Looking back now, would you change how you voted in the

National Constituent Assembly elections? (n=908)

89%

68%

59%

6% 8% 9%

5%

20% 24%

1% 5%

8% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


I believe that I voted correctly It is too early to judge how I voted

I believe that I made the wrong choice DK/REF


Why do you believe you made the wrong choice? (n=232)

17%

4%

7%

72%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

DK/REF

I filled the ballot incorrectly

The party I voted for did not win

I am not pleased with the party I voted for


Looking ahead to the next elections, do you intend to vote for the

same party, or a different party? (n=901)

39%

19%

27%

6%

9%

I intend to vote for the same party

I intend to vote for a different party

I have not yet decided who I will vote

for

I do not intend to vote

DK/REF


If you had to choose from the following political parties, for whom

would you vote in the next election?

41%

7%

0.2%

0.3%

1%

2%

3%

6%

6%

6%

27%

DK

Refused

Al-Masar Party

El Amen Party

Party of Progressive Conservatives

Jomhouri Party

Tunisian Workers Party

Congress for the Republic

Ettakatol

Nida Tunis

Ennahda Movement

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


Some political parties chose not to join the majority coalition in the

National Constituent Assembly. Do you approve or disapprove of

this choice, or do you have no opinion of the role of political

opposition?


21%

26%

11%

19%

7%

15%

Strongly approve Approve Disapprove Strongly disapprove No opinion DK/REF

When do you believe Tunisia’s next elections will occur?

24%

2%

15%

34%

27%

DK/REF

Other

Before March 20, 2013

March 20, 2013

After March 20, 2013

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


In your opinion, what kind of elections will these be?

51%

56%

59%

26%

23%

16%

9% 9%

2% 0% 0%

15% 13% 12%

8%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Presidential Legislative/Parliamentary Local/Municipal General/All levels DK/REF


If you could pick, which type of government would you prefer in

Tunisia?

14%

25%

19%

42%

7%

24%

16%

53%

8%

52%

19% 21%

DK/REF Presidential system Parliamentary system A mixed government

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12


If you had a choice between a stable and prosperous Tunisia that was

ruled by a non-democratic government, or a democratic government

that led to an unstable and insecure Tunisia, which would you choose?

34%

26%

38% 41%

48%

70%

55% 52%

18%

4%

7% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12

Non-democratic government Democratic government DK/REF


Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?

Source First Mention Second

Mention Third Mention Total

Tunisian television 61% 24% 6% 91%

Radio 9% 33% 16% 57%

Newspaper 4% 11% 18% 33%

Gatherings at public places 6% 12% 14% 32%

Internet 18% 7% 4% 29%

SMS 0% 1% 0% 1%

Mosque 0% 0% 1% 1%

Other 1% 2% 4% 7%

DK/REF 1% 11% 37% 49%


Do you have access to the Internet? If yes, where do you usually

access it?

57%

27%

3% 2%

12%

0.2%

43%

Yes - Work

Yes - Home

Yes – Mobile

phone

Yes - Other

Yes – School

n=543

Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 41

No

Do you know what the difference is between a secular and a non-

secular government?

23%

32% 35% 36% 35%

77%

68% 65% 64% 65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12

Yes No


As you may already know, in a secular government, the government’s decisions

on public policy and laws are made without any consideration to religion; some

people refer to this as the separation of religion and state. It does not mean that

the government is atheist just that no specific religious idea is promoted when

making laws. Considering this definition of secularism, in general would you

approve or disapprove of the government of Tunisia being secular?

42% 32%

47% 50%

46%

41%

44%

43%

11%

28%

8% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12

Approve secular government Disapprove secular government DK/REF


Would you prefer to see more political parties or entities that are

Islamist or secular in the National Constituent Assembly?

8%

9%

11%

6%

9%

51%

55%

68%

60%

55%

33%

26%

18%

27%

26%

3%

3%

2%

3%

6%

6%

8%

2%

4%

4%

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly Islamist Moderately Islamist Moderately secular Strongly secular DK/REF


In your opinion, has security in Tunisia improved since the elections?

What about the security of your neighborhood or community?

72%

68%

27%

31%

1%

1%

My

neighborhood/Community

Tunisia

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes No DK/REF


In your opinion, what role should civil society organizations play in

Tunisia?

14%

33%

4% 5%

8%

14%

1%

1%

21%

Represent citizens to

government

Provide social services

Research public policies

Perform community service

Educate the public on

citizenship

Protect human rights

No role

Other

DK/REF


2012 october 3 survey of tunisian public opinion, july 26 august 8, 2012

Documents